[Uluru]

I believe MILC will overtake DSLR in the future. I just don't think the technology is here yet; unless the market decides it's all good and we continue down the road from bright big SLR viewfinder all the way to laggy, low contrast EVF as a standard.

You have chosen the wrong verb; overtake is not the right word. MILC is the replacement for the P&S nowadays. So it will sell in large quantities, yes, and be de facto cameras of choice. And now, and also in the future, we shall need to compare figures differently: mid level DSLRs with higher-end MILC cameras only, because the P&S cameras are now substituted with low-end MILC, like Q, Oly EPLs, etc.

So how sales of D7100, or sales of K-3 compare with sales of X-T1 or Pen 5?
That figure (and no other figure) will reveal the real truth about the real appeal of the higher-end MILC.

---

Last edited by Uluru; 08-01-2014 at 01:40 AM.

[mecrox]

You have chosen the wrong verb; overtake is not the right word. MILC is the replacement for the P&S nowadays. So it will sell in large quantities, yes. And now we shall need to compare figures differently: DSLRs with higher-end MILC cameras only, because the P&S cameras are now substituted with low-end MILC, like Q, Oly EPLs, etc.

So how sales of D7100, or sales of K-3 compare with sales of X-T1 or Pen 5?
That figure (and no other figure) will reveal the real truth about the real appeal of the higher-end MILC.

I doubt it. Concentrating on one metric risks simply producing a list which is really why owners of a D7100 prefer it and why owners of an X-T1 prefer that one. I'd have thought it also important to look at changes in technology coming down the line including video and IT generally, design and m/f costs going forward, demographic changes, developments among competitors and competing industries and all the rest of a long list. I'm sure such surveys exist but likely not for public viewing unless you have a few thousand $$ to spare. And of course the whole picture is skewed by Canonikon and their vested interests. Even talking of a "market" is a bit of a misnomer with some sections of the camera industry given the degree of concentration. If one or other of the big changes two tack, or more likely when, then everything else will change too. The point is that a manufacturer cannot look only at today, read off the (expected) answer and pronounce job done when his costs and returns are based on a run-off lasting for years. One has to look over the medium term, at least 3-5 years I'd have thought. That is likely to produce a different answer. None of this is simple.

[banep]

Seems like a joke.

Posts total here on PF: 8
Location: Slovania.

Tell us more, banep !

JP

Can be seen as a joke.
Probably.
But it's real.
It has similar size and almost the same weight as K-3.

[Uluru]

IThe point is that a manufacturer cannot look only at today, read off the (expected) answer and pronounce job done when his costs and returns are based on a run-off lasting for years. One has to look over the medium term, at least 3-5 years I'd have thought. That is likely to produce a different answer. None of this is simple.

I agree. But the trend is this: MILCs will be mainstream cameras of the future. They are higher value cameras sold at a low price, and are replacing the P&S almost entirely.

[IchabodCrane]

I agree. But the trend is this: MILCs will be mainstream cameras of the future. They are higher value cameras sold at a low price, and are replacing the P&S almost entirely.

Low price? An X-T1 costs more than a K-3.

[RonHendriks1966]

I agree. But the trend is this: MILCs will be mainstream cameras of the future. They are higher value cameras sold at a low price, and are replacing the P&S almost entirely.

Yes and one problem in the market for MILC's is that there are still huge stocks of old models. You can buy the new Nikon 1 S2 with the 11,5-27mm lens for 459 euro overhere. But online you can buy the older S1 version with the same lens for 179 euro since they must have plenty of them. People don't know the difference and don't care. It's a nice camera wich can take nice images.

[rawr]

The DSLR range in K-mount in incomplete without an FF, it does not make any sense.

And you discovered this when?
I guess the more times someone says it, the camera gods might finally listen.
FF is indeed the missing step in the Pentax ladder - in terms of sensor size, sensor performance, model lineup, market targetting etc.

[Kunzite]

Can be seen as a joke.
Probably.
But it's real.
It has similar size and almost the same weight as K-3.

If it can't be double-checked against other sources, it doesn't exist. If it can be invalidated by other sources... sorry

[Pål Jensen]

The price gap between the K-3 and 645Z is still too wide to swallow, and the linear resolution between the FF of other makers and the 645Z is negligible..

Linear resolution is meaningless as images are not one-dimensional.
The dilemma is that a FF camera will cannibalize Pentax sales and probably in itself not profitable. A 24mp FF camera will compete with the 24mp K-3. A 36mp FF camera could compete with the 645z. I'm not sure there is space for a Pentax FF system.....

[JimmyDranox]

I want to point something.

Both rumors, about sales of 645z and about the postpone of Pentax FF seems to come from same kind of sources. Dealers. One of this rumors is, in my view, clearly false. Maybe, the second rumor, about the postpone of FF is also false. I don't know. But both rumors seems to serve the same purpose. Pushing up the sales of the existing cameras, 645z and K-3. At least this is my opinion.

[mee]

Not of the dFF is 500-1000 USD more than the K-3.. then it doesn't compete.

Just like Canon still sells loads of APS-C bodies such as the 70D yet also sells loads of the 6D FF. The price difference keeps them separate.

[D1N0]

Linear resolution is meaningless as images are not one-dimensional.
The dilemma is that a FF camera will cannibalize Pentax sales and probably in itself not profitable. A 24mp FF camera will compete with the 24mp K-3. A 36mp FF camera could compete with the 645z. I'm not sure there is space for a Pentax FF system.....

I'm not upgrading to the K-3, I would upgrade to FF and keep de k-5. Also FF will prevent people from leaving Pentax altogether. Ricoh won't launch it in a hurry though because they want to get it right the first time. They would not survive a D600 screw up. 36mp is probably too much for most. Ricoh could just launch 2 versions 24mp and 36mp. (like sony does with the A7(r/s).

[Pål Jensen]

Not of the dFF is 500-1000 USD more than the K-3.. then it doesn't compete.

Just like Canon still sells loads of APS-C bodies such as the 70D yet also sells loads of the 6D FF. The price difference keeps them separate.

Canon have more than ten times the number of customers that Pentax have. They can afford to fill every niche.

---------- Post added 08-01-14 at 03:09 PM ----------

I'm not upgrading to the K-3, I would upgrade to FF and keep de k-5. Also FF will prevent people from leaving Pentax altogether. Ricoh won't launch it in a hurry though because they want to get it right the first time. They would not survive a D600 screw up. 36mp is probably too much for most. Ricoh could just launch 2 versions 24mp and 36mp. (like sony does with the A7(r/s).

People will still leave Pentax because of FF. You can be sure that the moment a Pentax FF body is released the whining will start; Its is only 24mp; it is not 24mp; you cannot buy one as there is no 400/2.8 AF lens for it. Nikon and Canon have more lenses so it is pointless...etc...etc...we heard it all before...
It is not realistic that Pentax will have more than one FF body in the line-up for the foreseeable future. And the lens line-up will be very restricted compared to Nikon and Canon. The whining is not primarily about what people want or need but for the whining itself; they need an excuse to consume and experience changes. They will have no problem finding something to be unhappy about after Pentax have released their FF body. They will post threads where they proclaim their deflection to another brand because Pentax refuse to update the camera after 6 months on the market.....

[monochrome]

Assuming Ricoh Imaging is not just purely bad businessmen - it is simple and logical.

If Pentax can make a profit selling a FF DSLR
Then Pentax will release a FF DSLR.
Otherwise they won't.

We won't know what market barrier holds Pentax back from releasing a FF DSLR.
We won't know when that market barrier has been breached before a FF DSLR appears.

The only logical explanation I can imagine is (whether explicitly or by winks and nods) CaNikon have conceded advancing APS-c DSLR technology to Pentax so long as Pentax stays out of FF.

That also leaves crop MF another niche for Pentax to fill.

I still say effort was moved from developing FF lenses into developing 645 lenses after pre-order IOI's - which pushed everything else to the side. Right now it is 645 all the time.

[Pål Jensen]

The only logical explanation I can imagine is (whether explicitly or by winks and nods) CaNikon have conceded advancing APS-c DSLR technology to Pentax so long as Pentax stays out of FF.

That also leaves crop MF another niche for Pentax to fill.
.

There was rumors to this effect years ago......in the film days....