Forgot Password
Pentax Camera Forums Home
 

Reply
Show Printable Version Search this Thread
08-07-2014, 09:04 PM   #16
Site Supporter
Aristophanes's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Dartmouth, Nova Scotia
Photos: Albums
Posts: 3,790
QuoteOriginally posted by Doundounba Quote
It doesn't matter to camera manufacturers that everyone on earth have a camera if no one is actually buying cameras. If no one's is buying cameras, there is no market. The "market" is the number of units you can sell per year, not the size of the deployed user base (unless that user base is paying you some kind of rent, like a maintenance contract or some such).
The "market" is the number of customers who use a camera, like the photos, and when it depreciates as we all accept things do when we engage as consumers in chattel goods, think about buying a replacement. That is when brand loyalty, Pentax Forums, the cult status of the Ricoh GR, and investments in glass pay off.

The easiest customer is always a repeat one.

But I stand by my assertion that the change in wireless and right-now transfer of images has caught the DSLR and optics company camera market with their pants down. This, I believe, has dramatically slowed the replacement cycle. Flu Card ain't gonna do it. They need to make mobile OS's their main platform. This needs to happen in the next 3 quarters or it will be a bloodbath. Traditional Japanese camera engineering (like how Olympus has recently approached the industry) is not going to change things. Pentax is sort of on the ball with the fashion accessory, multi-colour approach, but it only blinds the market at the edges. Connectivity is what is lacking from the DSLR and mirrorless crowd.

08-07-2014, 09:15 PM   #17
Veteran Member
wullemaha's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Tokyo
Posts: 503
QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Flu Card ain't gonna do it. They need to make mobile OS's their main platform.
QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Connectivity is what is lacking from the DSLR and mirrorless crowd.
I somehow fear that such features will only be implemented at the cost of quality... I do not think a "instant-sharing" approach will be achieved with RAW data, but only for small sized straight-from-camera-JPGs. Also, for example for my workflow, wireless connectivity would not bring any benefit at all. First I shoot, then I take out my memory card, sit at the PC with a nice drink and a good screen, and do sorting/deleting/PP ... but of course that's only me. I can see that for a huge amount of the market (the current cellphone-camera crowd), this might be a big advantage, and therefore increase sales. However, I do not see it as any kind of quality improvement but rather marketing gimmick...
08-07-2014, 09:56 PM - 1 Like   #18
Pentaxian
philbaum's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Port Townsend, Washington State, USA
Posts: 3,659
QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
...
The easiest customer is always a repeat one.

But I stand by my assertion that the change in wireless and right-now transfer of images has caught the DSLR and optics company camera market with their pants down. This, I believe, has dramatically slowed the replacement cycle. Flu Card ain't gonna do it. They need to make mobile OS's their main platform. This needs to happen in the next 3 quarters or it will be a bloodbath. Traditional Japanese camera engineering (like how Olympus has recently approached the industry) is not going to change things. Pentax is sort of on the ball with the fashion accessory, multi-colour approach, but it only blinds the market at the edges. Connectivity is what is lacking from the DSLR and mirrorless crowd.
Yeah but, but, but...the older generations may repeat, but the younger generations may discard the concept of carrying heavy iron around. IMHO.

I concur with your second comment. I just finished installing a Sony remote control app on my Nex6 that lets it establish its own wifi network. I installed the same app on my smart phone, and now i can control shooting paramters, WB, 2 sec delay, and change the focus location on my smart phone. It shows me the same image my camera is seeing up to 120' away - yes i tested it. For some kinds of photographers - tethering might be useful. For me, probably not so much. Cost of app: Free

My first use of this tethering was to monitor my my brewing coffee machine while i went to another room to work on my laptop

[IMG][/IMG]

Here's the view of the Nex 6 tethering image on the Samsung android phone that is controlling it. Pls ignore the messed up WB :-)



pls note that this remote shooting only produces jpeg :-(

Last edited by philbaum; 08-07-2014 at 10:46 PM.
08-08-2014, 12:11 AM   #19
Veteran Member
JimC1101's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Fremont, Ca
Photos: Albums
Posts: 392
QuoteOriginally posted by Doundounba Quote
See right here for a nice graph of DSLR and mirrorless sales from 2012 to 2014 based on CIPA data. Basic gist is mirrorless is flat, DSLR trending heavily down...
What interesting here that I see in looking at the graph is that there is an understandable trend that has occurred, or could be connected. When looking at June to October, numbers are down from that point forward moving up from the months of April through to October. This means that for the most part, number increase when people begin to look for their summer vacation sales til October, which for the most part is when a lot of Christmas sales begin. I am a procrastinator so I buy my gifts on December 24th sometimes but many people begin their shopping for Christmas gifts in October. The numbers for 2013 did show a DSLR reduction and increase for mirrorless and time will tell how it goes. I still think that if there are new releases that are at least evolutionary, at a reasonable price, sales will still happen, be it DSLR or Mirrorless, but I think DSLR is still going to be the king. When the day comes when I see a wedding and I see the photographer show up with a smartphone or IPAD, then I will know that people just don't really care how good their pictures look, and we will say that DSLR's or mirroless cameras will come to an end.


Last edited by JimC1101; 08-08-2014 at 12:18 AM.
08-08-2014, 01:18 AM   #20
Pentaxian
calsan's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Perth, Australia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 1,367
Thanks to Ron for posting an original opinion piece based upon his observations made when walking around outside!
So many posts on the internet are simply 'someone on the internet says this, and I quote:...."
08-08-2014, 01:18 AM   #21
New Member




Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 6
Sony will be driving the camera market soon...

Hi,
We know what Sony is doing to the mirrorless camera segment these days. The ground breaking A7 series is their latest innovation. If the big two players won't do anything about it, then they will be soon out of their own game. However, both Canon and Nikon are capable enough to produce awesome mirrorless cameras. Once they shift their focus to mirrorless market, the battle would be interesting . They have to complete not only Sony, but Olympus and Panasonic as well. I own an Olympus em10 and 5-6 m43 lenses from both oly and pana. I m happy with my gear so far.

I think many people are still not aware of the fact that mirrorless cameras these days are equally capable (and more usable) as DSLR's. I asked many people and they do not know about Olympus and Panasonic and Pentax for that matter. They think a DLSR look alike camera is much better than small (mirrorless) camera. I guess it will take more effort from Sony and other companies to change this perspective.

But for sure one thing is clear that mirrorless market is growing faster. This can be proven by some attempt made by Canon (Gx1, EOS-M) and nikon (V series). Lets hope Pentax will also focus in mirrorless segment and will produce some large sensor compact cameras.

P.S - I also own a Ricoh GR and its my all time fav camera to date. <3

Cheers!!
08-08-2014, 01:18 AM   #22
Pentaxian
RonHendriks1966's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2009
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 8,557
Original Poster
QuoteOriginally posted by Doundounba Quote
See right here for a nice graph of DSLR and mirrorless sales from 2012 to 2014 based on CIPA data. Basic gist is mirrorless is flat, DSLR trending heavily down...
Thanks for the graph, yes it shows some ongoing decline for a longer periode.

QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
I can't find the article I referred to in my previous post, but this is quite a good one. It also describes the market in decline, but takes more measurements into consideration and also shows a trend towards more expensive models.

Camera Market Returns from Four-Year Ride Bruised, but Wiser |

Another thing to consider is how much the Japanese makers will lose from pulling out of point and shoot cameras. They outsourced that business a long time ago, so they can pull out the minute they cease to make money on it with minimal impact. The fact that they stay in the business at all indicates that they are still making some money.
Thanks for bringing the article. Most important in it is that bridge camera's are growing. And looking at the interest for the new and expensive Panasonic FZ1000 we can also conclude (a little fast) that there is much interest online for it (stil most clicked camera on DPR) and sales are good in shops being one of the popular camera's in sales for such an expensive camera.

Maybe they are still in the market for P&S because they think they can survive in it. Nikon Europe said last year they planned to be in that market with al different segments to "own" the market. Sometimes that optimism can cost a lot.

QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Nikon published lowered forecasts today, in fact undershooting by quite a lot.
Thanks, well that is a good timing. With minus 31 % they are loosing marketshare against Canon. But overal some other manufactuars are even loosing more ground when Canon only looses 19 %.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Sales volumes are declining, but the overall number of DSLR and mirrorless cameras in active use by the consumer market is still growing.

Personally I think the reason the market is flattening has a lot to do with the hesitation of the Japanese manufacturers to embrace wireless and mobile OS and cross-platform technologies. I still lots of DSLRs used actively but the main talk is about the pain of PP and lack of connectivity. Solve that affordably and soon and people will recycle their purchasing again.

Smartphone cameras have eclipsed dedicated P&S cameras but cannot eclipse or even approach performance cameras, which is still a vast hobby market.
You are right about this. There have never been so many people into taking images for their own pleasure or for some job. That number is still growing.

The connectivity is one thing that should already be in any camera today, but somehow the big brands missed on that. Toying around with connectivity as the FluCard or buying some kind of wifi connectiondevice. That is milking your loyal customers for something they get for free in other devices. Yes making the camera's "modern" with wifi and other things will make the camera's more popular again and some people will buy those new camera's to upgrade their old ones. I still think that even then the camera market wil sell less traditional camera's then they wil in 2014.
08-08-2014, 01:35 AM   #23
Forum Member




Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Hobart TAS
Posts: 78
There will always be people who get to the stage where their Iphone or Compact no longer meets their needs and they want to move on with their art. SLR's and MILC's are the only path forward for them, so there will always be a growing market

08-08-2014, 02:13 AM   #24
Pentaxian
mecrox's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Oxford, UK
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 1,914
QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The "market" is the number of customers who use a camera, like the photos, and when it depreciates as we all accept things do when we engage as consumers in chattel goods, think about buying a replacement. That is when brand loyalty, Pentax Forums, the cult status of the Ricoh GR, and investments in glass pay off.

The easiest customer is always a repeat one.

But I stand by my assertion that the change in wireless and right-now transfer of images has caught the DSLR and optics company camera market with their pants down. This, I believe, has dramatically slowed the replacement cycle. Flu Card ain't gonna do it. They need to make mobile OS's their main platform. This needs to happen in the next 3 quarters or it will be a bloodbath. Traditional Japanese camera engineering (like how Olympus has recently approached the industry) is not going to change things. Pentax is sort of on the ball with the fashion accessory, multi-colour approach, but it only blinds the market at the edges. Connectivity is what is lacking from the DSLR and mirrorless crowd.
You may be right but I think you are being pretty optimistic. Brand loyalty, internet forums and cult cameras apply to only a tiny, tiny number of overall users and for most users "glass" means renewing the glazing in their home. All the folks I know who want a nice camera for a vacation or whatever go to a good local store, often John Lewis (the leading department store chain here), and buy what takes their fancy. They like something which "does it all" in one body, and video is very much a part of it. The key for a brand is to be on sale in the store. This is strength of the established companies and the Achilles Heel of the lesser players, like Pentax, who simply cannot get into the store to begin with. When times are tough and stores become even more picky about their stock lines, the situation is even worse for the lesser players.

I completely agree about wireless and software. But there must be little chance of a real change in either without some serious changes right across the main camera companies. Why? Because they have repeatedly spurned any such thing and, broadly, take the line that what a user does after buying the camera is nothing to do with them. The whole point is that how people user their cameras is everything to do with the camera companies because unless the camera fits into a modern workflow, it is often just a useless lump. And a big, heavy useless lump too.

"Workflow" embraces a lot of different things. For most folks, it probably means Just Works (TM) with mobiles and tablets. Others require more high-end solutions; still others are looking for Pinterest kinds of things - easy ways to turn their pictures into prints, items like mugs and mats, embroidery patterns, puzzles, digital picture holders and all the rest. Not a single camera company I've seen makes any effort at all to facilitate this. An example would be to do so via appropriate links and upload systems on their websites and eventually in-camera or from mobile apps. And the Just Works (TM) side means proper integration with quality apps, not half-baked "solutions" which barely work at all or which cost a hundred bucks for a dongle with might work, or might not.

In some ways, perhaps the time is right for an entirely new company to walk in with a killer camera OS and appropriate apps and clean up. At the present rate of non-progress, it might take the camera companies years to achieve any of this, not a few quarters. Perhaps a few management changes are needed.

I wonder what Ricoh think. They bought Pentax at the top of the market, a few months before "peak camera" of 2012. The landscape must look very different now and they may even rue the day, but in truth Ricoh are no different from Canon and Nikon in the "not invented here" stakes. Look at the ill-fated FluCard - no wifi here, thank you, we're off-shoring the lot to a third party and good luck with than one, customers. I guess one possibility is that edgy investors at Canon and Nikon might force some changes, particularly at Nikon which is much the more vulnerable. They have a testbed in the 1 system. I guess it could be upscaled to APS-C, or even FF, fitted out with a new mobile-friendly OS and used as the back end for the F mount.

Last edited by mecrox; 08-08-2014 at 02:32 AM.
08-08-2014, 02:15 AM - 1 Like   #25
Forum Member




Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 76
If cameras were about "art" I'd agree that there would be an on-going perpetual market for cameras. But they aren't and never have been. Cameras are gadgets, and the rise and fall of their popularity is largely based on their appeal to gadget hunters.

I've had this conversation with an executive of a large camera retailer. Cameras surged in popularity in the 60s because of the mass market appeal of Japanese SLRs as "high tech". In the late 80's and early 90's camera sales tanked because
computers were the new gadget craze. It wasn't until the digital era that they got back their spark as a must have gadget.

The effect was amplified by social media sites promoting "sharing your images" with your friends. Unfortunately, that all dissolved when Instagram came along.

Now, it's smartphones, tablets and 3D printers that dominate the gadget market. Instagram is far more popular with consumers than Flickr because it combines both social media, and decent imagery from a camera you carry with you. SLR Cameras are out of fashion, bulky, impossible to take to a concert, useless for sharing instant images of your kale chips with your mates. For 90% of the photographers out there - that's what they do - that's all they want a camera to do.

Yes, there are those of us addicted to SLR photography, but we are a dying breed. Manufacturers are pretty slow on the uptake - but they will need to add sharing features if they want to survive. Cameras like the X100 and GR are probably the right way forward, something you can pocket or drop in your bag. But, like the smartphone, it will probably need to be a multipurpose device to make significant sales.
08-08-2014, 02:52 AM - 1 Like   #26
Loyal Site Supporter




Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Southern Indiana
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 14,969
I do think the SLR market faces two issues. One is the smartphones have become "good enough" for a lot of things -- snaps of your kids at the zoo and actually better at some things like connectivity and getting your photos on to the internet as fast as possible.

The second thing is that people's current SLRs are good enough. I still see plenty of SLRs when I go out, but I just think there isn't any reason to upgrade your Nikon D3200 or Canon T2i. It isn't that these folks are going out and buying mirrorless cameras. They are using smart phones for 90 percent of the pictures they take and for the last 10 percent they use their 4 year old SLR.

I don't think Ricoh is hurting that much. I think the medium format camera business is much less affected by these sorts of things and the 645Z is doing well, by all accounts. In addition, Ricoh hasn't over produced and over shipped cameras like Canon and Nikon (and like Olympus did in the past). That sort of thing leads to deep discounting in the long run and can really hurt revenue.
08-08-2014, 04:44 AM   #27
Site Supporter
Aristophanes's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Dartmouth, Nova Scotia
Photos: Albums
Posts: 3,790
QuoteOriginally posted by Bora2013 Quote
Hi,
We know what Sony is doing to the mirrorless camera segment these days. The ground breaking A7 series is their latest innovation. If the big two players won't do anything about it, then they will be soon out of their own game. However, both Canon and Nikon are capable enough to produce awesome mirrorless cameras. Once they shift their focus to mirrorless market, the battle would be interesting . They have to complete not only Sony, but Olympus and Panasonic as well. I own an Olympus em10 and 5-6 m43 lenses from both oly and pana. I m happy with my gear so far.

I think many people are still not aware of the fact that mirrorless cameras these days are equally capable (and more usable) as DSLR's. I asked many people and they do not know about Olympus and Panasonic and Pentax for that matter. They think a DLSR look alike camera is much better than small (mirrorless) camera. I guess it will take more effort from Sony and other companies to change this perspective.

But for sure one thing is clear that mirrorless market is growing faster. This can be proven by some attempt made by Canon (Gx1, EOS-M) and nikon (V series). Lets hope Pentax will also focus in mirrorless segment and will produce some large sensor compact cameras.

P.S - I also own a Ricoh GR and its my all time fav camera to date. <3

Cheers!!
Last I looked Sony was treading water despite the A-mount and E-mount. Nikon makes something like 30x more cameras than Sony...usually using Sony sensors.

The higher the price point the more it is about the optics. This is why Nikon, Canon dominate (still). And why Pentax and Olympus continue.

For Pentax their mirrorless appears to be the Q and the Ricoh GR/GXR. With the GXR seemingly dead mirrorless will be its replacement. This is what I hope we will see at Photokina with robust mobile OS connectivity built right in).
08-08-2014, 04:58 AM - 1 Like   #28
Pentaxian




Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Hoek van Holland
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 1,245
maybe the camera sales also was like a bubble, way too big and it has now come down to normal levels. Ofcourse companies will complain, as they were getting used to the big bucks.
And the cameras these days are just producing excellent pictures, there is no need in upgrading every year or every other year.
And cameras are not like phones, you have to pay the full price at the counter. How many people would get a new phone every year or every other year if it didn't come with a subscription, and they had to pay it full right there, right now. Not nearly as many as they do now.
08-08-2014, 05:12 AM   #29
Pentaxian




Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: East Bay Area
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 775
All the interconnection with mobile devices is still a pain to setup. The mainstream users aren't going to go through the hassle of setting that up just to transfer photos to their mobile devices and then share the photos, whether it's through FluCard, Eyefi or built in Wifi. The setup process needs to be taken care of by NFC. You tap the mobile device to the camera and they communicate and setup the protocol automatically and then switch over to tethering mode. That means it's not going to become a main stream feature until Apple allows it to happen on their devices. It certainly can be done on a lot of Android devices now and there are more Android devices. But until Apple does it, it's just not cool enough.

Even then you still need to take that additional step of transferring photos to your mobile device and then share. It's just enough hassle that mobile devices' cameras being 'good enough' will always be the go-to device. I think mobile device interconnection is a path with limited potential; it's not really going to solve anything.

DSLR market is simply over saturated. Mobile device market is starting to get there - fewer people feel the need to upgrade every year or every two years because their phones are still good enough. Sony is making a lot of moves in MILC market right now because there's a lot of room for improvements and that is what they are good at as an electronic company. Once the technology becomes matured, it will just be another DSLR imo.

Last edited by ruggiex; 08-08-2014 at 05:29 AM.
08-08-2014, 05:34 AM   #30
Senior Member




Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary, AB CA
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 292
How about the effects of video?

There are both the casual consumer and higher end productions to consider, ie the erosion of the handcam market and the penetration of DSLR's as serious tools. Also are the DSLR-like cams (C100) that will fully hybridize popular functions down to the top end of the pro-DSLR market, driving sales there. Maybe not huge volume, but good margins.

Someone mentioned 3D printing; I think if you combine something like a Lytro, Theta, maybe a dual lens cam, and what Adobe can do in software already with full color 3D printing you can imagine a Star Trek replicator in the not too distant future.

And how about the display on the back of the Fuji 3D cam? Cool trick. I could see applications more broadly once we get tablets doing retina quality 3D. Or zero-power e-ink 3D canvases...
Reply

Bookmarks
  • Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook
  • Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter
  • Submit Thread to Digg Digg
Tags - Make this thread easier to find by adding keywords to it!
apple, body, camera, cameras, child, consumer, dslr, equipment, fuji, future, gopro, images, ipad, lenses, market, panasonic, pc, pentax news, pentax rumors, people, photo, photos, sales, sports, time, video, visitors, zoo
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
New Report States That Only Canon, Nikon, and Sony Will Survive in the Camera Market UserK10D Pentax DSLR Discussion 24 12-31-2013 05:35 PM
Camera Store TV team :Sony A7r is the best camera of the year 2013 jogiba Non-Pentax Cameras: Canon, Nikon, etc. 21 12-29-2013 06:30 AM
Why The Efficiency of The Free Market is a Myth jeffkrol General Talk 45 12-01-2012 08:56 PM
When did the market fall out of the manual lens market GregK8 Pentax SLR Lens Discussion 34 01-20-2011 08:48 PM
LensRentals.com article "State of the SLR Market 2009" emr Photographic Technique 3 09-01-2009 08:18 AM



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:37 PM. | See also: NikonForums.com, part of our network of photo forums!
  • Red (Default)
  • Green
  • Gray
  • Dark
  • Dark Yellow
  • Dark Blue
  • Old Red
  • Old Green
  • Old Gray
  • Dial-Up Style
Hello! It's great to see you back on the forum! Have you considered joining the community?
register
Creating a FREE ACCOUNT takes under a minute, removes ads, and lets you post! [Dismiss]
Top