[ruggiex]

I don't buy the whole you need PC to post process and therefore we need to be able to do it on mobile device part. A lot of amateur shoot in Jpeg because they don't know how to post process. For someone to care enough to post process raw files, he/she already wants better quality photo. Those are not the ones unwilling to move away from cell phone cameras. Most of cell phone cam users just want to take an image, throw some filters on it and share it to the world.

[Kenntak]

I am confused. On the one side, people say the DSLR market is dying. On the other side, people are saying that Pentax has to produce a FF camera as soon as possible. Isn't that contradictory?

[monochrome]

There is a continuum of camera based on qualityrice ratios. Applies to most hard chattel manufactured products.

Wife got plenty rice. Blog post no need 1980x1760 jpeg. Wordpress resize anyway. Husband = chattel - carry heavy dSLR. (/sarc dialect)

[RonHendriks1966]

I am confused. On the one side, people say the DSLR market is dying. On the other side, people are saying that Pentax has to produce a FF camera as soon as possible. Isn't that contradictory?

The DSLR market is not dying, but it is getting smaller. No idea how small. Looks like 11 million camera's this year, but maybe when all the overstocked pricedumping stops it will go dow to 7-8 million?

The Pentax FF is a thing that makes it difficult. The market is shifting towards better IQ then the normal devices to make pictures with. So you either go into smartphones or want it to stand out. With the market for DSLR getting smaller, but demanded IQ getting up the marketshare for FF is getting bigger. So yes it would be a good path, but the question is if that is now.

[Aristophanes]

The DSLR market is not dying, but it is getting smaller. No idea how small. Looks like 11 million camera's this year, but maybe when all the overstocked pricedumping stops it will go dow to 7-8 million?

The Pentax FF is a thing that makes it difficult. The market is shifting towards better IQ then the normal devices to make pictures with. So you either go into smartphones or want it to stand out. With the market for DSLR getting smaller, but demanded IQ getting up the marketshare for FF is getting bigger. So yes it would be a good path, but the question is if that is now.

High-end camera market which includes DSLRs is NOT shrinking. Nor are DSLRs dying. They still have multi-million unit sales worldwide.

On top of the installed base the overall user base is still increasing.

It is only stalled in growth mostly due to saturation and reduced replacement buying. Last I looked optical sales were still doing well (e.g. Sigma).

Better IQ often means bigger file sizes but usage is shifting to mobile. That's the catch.

People who care about quality photos will always buy a better camera than anything a smartphone can deliver.

[RonHendriks1966]

High-end camera market which includes DSLRs is NOT shrinking. Nor are DSLRs dying. They still have multi-million unit sales worldwide.

On top of the installed base the overall user base is still increasing.

It is only stalled in growth mostly due to saturation and reduced replacement buying. Last I looked optical sales were still doing well (e.g. Sigma).

Better IQ often means bigger file sizes but usage is shifting to mobile. That's the catch.

People who care about quality photos will always buy a better camera than anything a smartphone can deliver.

I think we do have the same idea's.

Smartphones take over the P&S market, maybe even the market where the Q-sensor is in when those camera's get better over time. Entry level mirrorless is the step above smartphones and eat out entry level dslr. Hi end mirrorless is taking the mid section of dslr. Dslr is going towards hi end, meaning less entry level dslr and more hi end dslr (wich will be FF in time).

[ruggiex]

On top of the installed base the overall user base is still increasing.

Using that logic you may as well say P&S isn't shrinking because there has been so many millions of them sold over the years and they are still out there. So any additional new purchase is just adding to the existing user base therefore that segment is actually growing. Without actual growth or at least reasons for users to update their devices, there's no sustainability for camera makers.

[RonHendriks1966]

Using that logic you may as well say P&S isn't shrinking because there has been so many millions of them sold over the years and they are still out there. So any additional new purchase is just adding to the existing user base therefore that segment is actually growing. Without actual growth or at least reasons for users to update their devices, there's no sustainability for camera makers.

This is the economical problem manufactuars have to face. How to survive in a market where people bought to many camera's. Where you catered them with 59 euro camera's and brought not that much profit.

On the technical site. If an average P&S would be able to use for 4 years ten we are reaching the point where the market is shrinking simply because more older camera's "die" then new ones are sold. So the market for instant image is going towards the smartphones.

For dslr that is not the case yet and the number of working camera's is still increasing. On the other hand I know a good deal of people who have a dslr somewhere in their house never using it again.

[monochrome]

Using that logic you may as well say P&S isn't shrinking because there has been so many millions of them sold over the years and they are still out there. So any additional new purchase is just adding to the existing user base therefore that segment is actually growing. Without actual growth or at least reasons for users to update their devices, there's no sustainability for camera makers.

If I am correct, CIPA reports shipments from makers' factories, not final retail sales. A camera maker considers a unit 'sold' when it leaves their plant (or warehouse).

It is now well known that Nikon (especially) and Canon experienced an involuntary inventory build in the distribution channel beginning in 2H 2012, some of which accounts for the peak shipments in the 2012 / 2013 CIPA data. They are now experiencing an involuntary inventory draw-down as they attempt to under-produce and clear the distribution channel. It would be interesting to see 3-year rolling smoothed shipments to get a better idea of regular, systemic market changes.

Pentax did not make this mistake. They overbuilt Q and K-01, certainly, but that was a demand rejection, not a supply error.

There's no doubt that the camera market is changing - it might just be the demographics of the global post-WWII baby boom ageing faster than the growth-market middle class emerges - or as mirrorless technology and manufacturing efficiency inexorably steal marginal buyers from dSLR's. But to say the mirror is dead and to say Japanese product designers have missed the bus because . . . . . Facebook!! . . . . . is hyperbole.

[ruggiex]

For dslr that is not the case yet and the number of working camera's is still increasing. On the other hand I know a good deal of people who have a dslr somewhere in their house never using it again.

This is one reason where FF might actually make sense for Pentax because it offers a new upgrade path for existing users. However, the R&D and production have to be cheap enough that they can still be profitable from a small percentage user of a small market they currently own. That might be doable re-using the R&D they have already spent for 645z and K3. Unfortunately, they also face the problem of the MILC movement. So going traditional may allow them to create a new path for revenue from existing users; it may not be the answer long run. I think Pentax needs to secure that MF market though because 645z has gotten some recognition from pros from other brands and there's little competition in that segment.

Pentax did not make this mistake. They overbuilt Q and K-01, certainly, but that was a demand rejection, not a supply error.

There's no doubt that the camera market is changing - it might just be the demographics of the global post-WWII baby boom ageing faster than the growth-market middle class emerges - or as mirrorless technology and manufacturing efficiency inexorably steal marginal buyers from dSLR's. But to say the mirror is dead and to say Japanese product designers have missed the bus because . . . . . Facebook!! . . . . . is hyperbole.

The market is always changing from generation to generation; whoever successfully adopt to the changes have better chance of staying relevant. Pentax was late adapter to the digial world and fell behind. (On top of that there's the whole Hoya management issue.) I don't think they are in the position to be the front runner of whatever the new era is but I don't think they can afford to fall too far behind either. I have feeling that Ricoh realizes that.

[Aristophanes]

Using that logic you may as well say P&S isn't shrinking because there has been so many millions of them sold over the years and they are still out there. So any additional new purchase is just adding to the existing user base therefore that segment is actually growing. Without actual growth or at least reasons for users to update their devices, there's no sustainability for camera makers.

Smartphone cameras can replace P&S because their sensors are not so different. In fact, smartphone sensors are getting better; it is the optics that are lacking. Smartphones are basically decent light P&Ss with phenomenal connectivity.

The P&S market will continue to survive in a rugged form, a cheap form for those who don't really like using their phone, and a bridge camera, the latter of which will sensor size up a lot and challenge many DSLRs.

Smartphones do not cannibalize higher-end, dedicated camera sales. Compact Kia cars do not take away from BMWs. BMW responds by making Minis.

---------- Post added 08-08-14 at 04:07 PM ----------

For dslr that is not the case yet and the number of working camera's is still increasing. On the other hand I know a good deal of people who have a dslr somewhere in their house never using it again.

That type of wishful thinking has ALWAYS been part of the camera market.

And windsurfers. And gold clubs. And fishing rods. And weight sets. And ultralight planes. And rock tumblers. And telescopes. And so on.....

---------- Post added 08-08-14 at 04:08 PM ----------

entax did not make this mistake. They overbuilt Q and K-01, certainly, but that was a demand rejection, not a supply error.

The multi-colour, custom order system has been Pentax's primary consumer-grade channel response. They make a certain # of all-black shelf queens, are pretty dialed in on the K-3s, and the rest is built to order.

[monochrome]

Huh? Upthread you said Ricoh is hamstrung by a 62 year old marketing guy. Now you're saying they're pretty sharp operators. Are you agreeing or disagreeing? FWIW, the made-to-order colors for the Q-S1 seems pretty scaled back, if you ask me.

Oh THWI. boriscleto™ Again.

[philbaum]

I am confused. On the one side, people say the DSLR market is dying. On the other side, people are saying that Pentax has to produce a FF camera as soon as possible. Isn't that contradictory?

Quite right. I can't imagine that Pentax would produce a FF DSLRs with DSLRs still in a decline (comparing June 2012 to June 2013 to June 2014) High quality digital cameras will have a floor level of demand, The main question in my opinion, is whether these high quality digital cameras stay in their present traditional mirror'd configuration or morph into mirror-less designs. Of course, other configuration questions are features for connectivity.

Folks talk like the manufacturers need to find a solution to the present buying malaise, when in fact, all the manufacturers can do is advertise and suggest solutions, and the customers decide what they want to buy. Being in Retail, is very frustrating in that regard. I've had one poster criticize me for saying that there is high rate of change in the marketplace right now. Which puzzles me. How can anyone say that the rate of change is anything but high, when the unit rate of sales is still dropping for dslrs about 18% a year, or thereabouts. Sure, Nikon and Canon may be maintaining revenue by selling higher priced DSLRs, even with lower unit numbers, but thats still a change in the marketplace regarding which customers are buying.

There's a cliche that says "water finds its own level" and that applies here with regard to the sale of cameras. its the customers that will decide via their purchases, which camera designs will stay and which will fall by the wayside, which manufacturers will succeed and which will fall by the wayside. Manufacturers are currently scrambling to cut costs, while producing designs that they hope will appeal to sufficient market segments to keep their operation going.

[reeftool]

The DSLR market isn't going away. The extreme growth brought about by SLR film shooters switching to digital has pretty much died out. I think we will soon see fewer new models and a longer life cycle. There is absolutely nothing about the K3 that makes me want to give up my K5 right now. I bought my K5 when my K10D started acting up after 4 1/2 years and I knew it was time for a new camera. When my K5 begins to have problems, I will buy whatever model is currently available and I think that's what the overwhelming majority of camera owners do. My daughter is still happily shooting with the used Nikon D200 I bought her years ago.

[Pål Jensen]

BTW most of the world pays full price for their phones. Only US/Canada really subsidize phones with plans.[COLOR="Silver"]
.

Huh? I've never paid more than 1NOK for my phones. Thats is approximately 1/6th of a US $.....