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09-25-2014, 05:14 AM   #376
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Why this sudden interest in mirrorless cameras from Canon and Nikon?

Just have a look at the turnover figures (source: CIPA)
Because basing the figures on 2012 gives a false impression. That year was peak camera and saw an overproduction of DSLRs many of which are still sitting on shelves in stores and warehouses. You need to look at longer-term trends, particularly in Japan + Asia which is now the commanding market for camera sales and the market where sales of mirrorless cameras are strongest. Both Canon and Nikon have mentioned mirrorless cameras in recent interviews, but serious ones, not the ones they have produced so far. Perhaps they are becoming twitchy because mirrorless cameras are doing pretty well in Japan + Asia, or at least well enough to start taking enough revenue from DSLRs for Canonikon to wake up and take notice. The complete unknown, of course, is whether and how that will continue.

09-25-2014, 05:58 AM   #377
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Because basing the figures on 2012 gives a false impression. That year was peak camera and saw an overproduction of DSLRs many of which are still sitting on shelves in stores and warehouses. You need to look at longer-term trends, particularly in Japan + Asia which is now the commanding market for camera sales and the market where sales of mirrorless cameras are strongest. Both Canon and Nikon have mentioned mirrorless cameras in recent interviews, but serious ones, not the ones they have produced so far. Perhaps they are becoming twitchy because mirrorless cameras are doing pretty well in Japan + Asia, or at least well enough to start taking enough revenue from DSLRs for Canonikon to wake up and take notice. The complete unknown, of course, is whether and how that will continue.
This graph reflects the long term trend for all cameras (1951-2014e):



and this one is focusing on cameras with interchangeable lens (1977-2014e)



2012 saw indeed an overproduction of all cameras, including mirrorless cameras, hence the decrease of 16% in the number of mirrorless cameras shipped in 2013, offset by a higher average unit price leading to a decrease in turnover limited to 3%.

During the first seven month of 2013 (January-July), the sales of mirrorless cameras represented 17% of those of DSLRs. During the same period of 2014, this percentage has raised to 30%. No wonder Canon and Nikon are now giving a serious look at mirrorless cameras, despite their will to protect their DSLRs sales: If you can't beat them, join them!
09-25-2014, 06:11 AM   #378
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Well, when seeing these kind of figures, i have become a smartphone hater
With a preference for those who bend whilst in your pocket
09-25-2014, 06:12 AM   #379
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Why this sudden interest in mirrorless cameras from Canon and Nikon?

Just have a look at the turnover figures (source: CIPA)
Everyone keeps posting the CIPA numbers as though they are the key metric. CIPA is total number of bodies shipped. CIPA doesn't tell you the total dollars of each segment. According to Fuji the mirrorless is up 40% in terms of dollars spent. People aren't buying as many, but they are buying higher end products with higher profit margins. A lot of the volume of the DSLR market is in the entry level DSLR kits which are not very profitable compared to the higher end. I don't know where Fuji is getting their numbers, but according to Fuji dollars spent on mirrorless is up 40% while dollars spent on DSLRs is down 20%.

I'm sure Canon & Nikon are seeing the same trend and adjusting accordingly. The big market for mirrorless is the enthusiast level and up.

09-25-2014, 06:15 AM   #380
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QuoteOriginally posted by kadajawi Quote
Maybe you'd want to check his CV. He graduated 1984, 1986 he had his first exhibition, amongst them a few chairs which later sold for 1 million dollar and 1.1 million pound. 2005 he was named one of the 100 most influential people in the year by Time Magazine. In 2012 he was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire for his services to design. He is creative director for Qantas and now works at Apple.
One could make a case that Marc Newson is this generation's Raymond Lowey, the great industrial designer 'Man Who Designed Everything'.
09-25-2014, 06:28 AM   #381
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Everyone keeps posting the CIPA numbers as though they are the key metric. CIPA is total number of bodies shipped. CIPA doesn't tell you the total dollars of each segment. According to Fuji the mirrorless is up 40% in terms of dollars spent. People aren't buying as many, but they are buying higher end products with higher profit margins. A lot of the volume of the DSLR market is in the entry level DSLR kits which are not very profitable compared to the higher end. I don't know where Fuji is getting their numbers, but according to Fuji dollars spent on mirrorless is up 40% while dollars spent on DSLRs is down 20%.
I am afraid your statement is partly wrong: they don't tell the total dollars of each segment but they do tell the total yens. Look at CIPA tables such as this one:

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201407_e.pdf

then look at the legend on the top right::"Unit Upper:PCS,Lower:1,000Yen"

The +40% quoted by Fujifilm is there: column "Total Shipment(Worldwide)" sub-column "4) Comparison over the same period a year ago" x row "Non-Reflex 5)" lower sub-row = you read 141.3, meaning an increase of 41.3 per cent in turnover.

So is the -20%: column "Total Shipment(Worldwide)" sub-column "4) Comparison over the same period a year ago" x row "Single Lens Reflex" lower sub-row = you read 83.0, meaning a decrease of 17.0 per cent in turnover.

Last edited by Mistral75; 09-25-2014 at 06:44 AM.
09-25-2014, 06:33 AM   #382
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Everyone keeps posting the CIPA numbers as though they are the key metric. CIPA is total number of bodies shipped. CIPA doesn't tell you the total dollars of each segment. According to Fuji the mirrorless is up 40% in terms of dollars spent. People aren't buying as many, but they are buying higher end products with higher profit margins. A lot of the volume of the DSLR market is in the entry level DSLR kits which are not very profitable compared to the higher end. I don't know where Fuji is getting their numbers, but according to Fuji dollars spent on mirrorless is up 40% while dollars spent on DSLRs is down 20%.

I'm sure Canon & Nikon are seeing the same trend and adjusting accordingly. The big market for mirrorless is the enthusiast level and up.
That may be so but the CIPA figures are about the only public metric we have and they do mention the total value of units shipped, so one can get an idea of the average value of a unit. This has been rising as companies try to move up market and compensate for lower unit sales. What someone would really need is till receipts and then comparing those to forecasts and the CIPA figures, but enthusiast + high margin is where everyone wants to be I guess. Thing is, if you subtract the share of big players like Sony from the mirrorless market, there's not a lot left for Fuji and others to fight over.
09-25-2014, 06:37 AM   #383
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
(...)Thing is, if you subtract the share of big players like Sony from the mirrorless market, there's not a lot left for Fuji and others to fight over.
Sony claim they have 40 per cent. of the global mirrorless market. Allocate another 40 to 50 per cent. to Olympus and Panasonic, this leaves 10 to 20 per cent for Canon (EOS M), Fujifilm, Nikon (One) and Pentax (Q).

09-25-2014, 06:37 AM - 1 Like   #384
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
I don't know where Fuji is getting their numbers,
Maybe they get their sales numbers from the same place they get their ISO numbers.
09-25-2014, 06:43 AM   #385
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QuoteOriginally posted by cfraz Quote
Maybe they get their sales numbers from the same place they get their ISO numbers.
Funny but they get them from CIPA, as explained three posts above yours.
09-25-2014, 07:10 AM   #386
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QuoteOriginally posted by kadajawi Quote
Maybe you'd want to check his CV. He graduated 1984, 1986 he had his first exhibition, amongst them a few chairs which later sold for 1 million dollar and 1.1 million pound. 2005 he was named one of the 100 most influential people in the year by Time Magazine. In 2012 he was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire for his services to design. He is creative director for Qantas and now works at Apple.


His works include a concept car for Ford, Qantas/Airbus, Riva, Ideal Standard, Samsonite, Nike, Dom Perignon, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Tefal, Alessi, ...


As far as designers go I think he is doing rather well. The only other big name designer I remember who has put his name like that on a camera is Colani.


Btw., I do think the K-01 is a very attractive camera.
What are you, his personal assistant ! lol

Yeah I looked him up on wikipedia before, but now you've got me interested because before the K-01, I had never heard of him. But at that point when the K-01 met me, and I learnt who the designer was, I realized he was (expletive).

So now you made me look up Marc Newson Ltd and look at his products webpage here: Marc Newson Ltd

And glancing over the designs, I feel that they are ........hmmmmm ....... some what (expetive) again ! It looks like he takes 1920's art deco and merges it with 1950's style, then tweaks it and budda-bing-budda-boom.......... pay me a million bucks ! Please, come on, his work looks like he was smoking crystal meth !

You couldn't get me to buy anything designed by Marc Newson - EVEN IF YOU PAYED ME A MILLION BUCKS ! lol

The guys a hack and he botched the K-01 project - end of story. Now us sorry Pentaxians have lost a mirrorless camera model, which had a great potential, and could take K-mount lenses - WE HAVE LOST A MODEL FROM OUR ALREADY SMALL PRODUCT RANGE TO CHOOSE FROM ! (sobbing). And now Fujifilm is running away with it.

Thank you very much marc newson, your name shall go down in infamy. He single handedly took pentax out of the APS-C mirrorless equation ! (Sobbing)
09-25-2014, 07:14 AM   #387
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Funny but they get them from CIPA, as explained three posts above yours.
Yea, it was a cheap shot - I should probably be banned. Or at least have the good sense not post stuff like that.
09-25-2014, 08:06 AM   #388
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He made a cruddy design... poor ergonomics camera in my view. I have no interest in his other designs, be they good or terrible.
09-25-2014, 09:21 AM   #389
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Sony claim they have 40 per cent. of the global mirrorless market. Allocate another 40 to 50 per cent. to Olympus and Panasonic, this leaves 10 to 20 per cent for Canon (EOS M), Fujifilm, Nikon (One) and Pentax (Q).
WHy allocate another 40-50% to Olympus and Panasonic? Is it a guess or do you have numbers showing that they each have ~20%?
I am not being snarky or argumentative, I am just ignorant and haven't seen those numbers.
09-25-2014, 09:48 AM   #390
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QuoteOriginally posted by zoolander Quote
What are you, his personal assistant ! lol

Yeah I looked him up on wikipedia before, but now you've got me interested because before the K-01, I had never heard of him. But at that point when the K-01 met me, and I learnt who the designer was, I realized he was (expletive).

So now you made me look up Marc Newson Ltd and look at his products webpage here: Marc Newson Ltd

And glancing over the designs, I feel that they are ........hmmmmm ....... some what (expetive) again ! It looks like he takes 1920's art deco and merges it with 1950's style, then tweaks it and budda-bing-budda-boom.......... pay me a million bucks ! Please, come on, his work looks like he was smoking crystal meth !

You couldn't get me to buy anything designed by Marc Newson - EVEN IF YOU PAYED ME A MILLION BUCKS ! lol

The guys a hack and he botched the K-01 project - end of story. Now us sorry Pentaxians have lost a mirrorless camera model, which had a great potential, and could take K-mount lenses - WE HAVE LOST A MODEL FROM OUR ALREADY SMALL PRODUCT RANGE TO CHOOSE FROM ! (sobbing). And now Fujifilm is running away with it.

Thank you very much marc newson, your name shall go down in infamy. He single handedly took pentax out of the APS-C mirrorless equation ! (Sobbing)
That was not because of Newson, but because Pentax decided they could keep the dslr flange distance. The advantage is of course you don't need a new mount and lenses. The disadvantage is, that it has almost none of the advantages of mirrorless. More compact, lighter and small bright wide angle lenses. Pentax Should have developed a short flange system like everybody else and provide an adapter for K-mount so we can use our lenses. The K-01 was never a serious step to mirror less.
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