Originally posted by Cynog Ap Brychan What Should Pentax Do?
I've just watched an interesting video on YouTube from the Camera Store where the two guys debated the future direction of Canon and Nikon. They bemoaned the fact that neither company had produced anything innovative in some time: since the 5D Mark II and the D800, in fact. It got me thinking about what Pentax needs to do. Does it remain in the APS-C DSLR arena, or is mirrorless the way to go?
My impression and prediction:
1. Take a K-5, make it fatter, upgrade it, and wack in a 23 mega pixel sensor which is good, but not too good like the 16mp sensor was - ala the K-3. Take a 24 mega pixel 35mm sensor, jam it in a K-3, and make the 24mp considerably better than the 23mp sensor - ala the Pentax 35mm DSLR (whoops, shouldn't have mentioned it).
2. Get rid of the entry level to mid level cameras, and replace with 20mp sensors. Entry level not WR, but K-50 replacement WR.
The line up looks like this: K-S1 (20mp); K-50 mark ii (K-S5 20mp); K-3 (23mp); K-35mm (24mp); 645Z. (the lens road map fulfilled with a couple of lenses from Tokina)
Thats just my prediction, I had a feeling the new entry level would be 20mp to compete with Nikon 24mp and Canon 20mp. There should be room in a K-3 to fit a 35mm and mirror box, if there isn't, then there is going to be a new chassis. But it will be the path of least resistance and cost and a traditional DSLR arrangement - no mirrorless 35mm. Pentax won't try to step on Nikon or Canons toes, and won't challenge by producing a Pro level 35mm camera, it'll be Advanced/consumer grade (But really it'll be pro). The Pentax K-3 had to be good enough on its own, but not so good that its almost equal to the Pentax 35mm. There might be a surprise in there, but ultimately I do not think that Pentax has the resources to do anything risky.
Pentax Mirrorless
Pentax's biggest risk was mirrorless with the Q, and they chose the path of least resistance with a small camera and tiny lens range - a cost effective model line-up, with no competition, but not a huge market. The Q is a test bed. But what was developed in the Q might be applied to either an APS-C mirrorless, but I doubt that Pentax has the resources to develop a lens range. But this is where Ricoh steps in, the Ricoh GR is also a test bed, and could be turned into a mirrorless CSC, and challenge Sony and Fujifilm. Ricoh/Pentax will be steping on, Sony and Samsungs feet. So no sensors from Sony or Samsung a Toshiba sensor it will be.
Ricoh Mirrorless
Ricoh being a company with a long heritage and tradition is entitled to market share. So I predict an APS-C mirrorless system camera from Ricoh (The sensor can't be Sony or Samsung).
Fujifilm
Fujifilm is stealing business away from Canon, Nikon and Sony, and they'll be in a lot of trouble. But if they just stick with their clunky mirrorless cameras, and super sharp lenses, they might slip under the radar. Because Fujifilm as a corporation has a tradition and history, and they are entitled to a market share.
Canon and Nikon
Pentax is too weak to challenge Canon and Nikon. If Canon perceives that Pentax is challenging Canon's 5Dmarkiii, then that rumor about a Canon Medium Format, might come into fruition to crush the 645Z. But in turn Canon might be trying to take out the other medium format producers. I think its unlikely that Canon will make a medium Format, because Canon is developing its niche in video. But Canon is copying Pentax with a couple of pancake lenses, and the baby Canon D100, and treading on Pentax's toes.
Canon and Nikon are at war, there are rebates from nearly all the brands. The economic downturn means that Canon Nikon and Sony are suffering. Pentax needs to hunker down, and ride out the storm with lower collateral damage.
Canon and Nikon need to relinquish market share, and allow other manufacturers to survive the slower times. Canon and Nikon are far too aggressive and have too much market share, leaving companies like Pentax to slowly inch forward for fear of treading on the big guys toes. Me personally, I boycott Canon and Nikon and let the little companies gain my support.
Conclusion:
So Pentax and Ricoh will inch forward, and play it safe. Pentax has a heritage, and a tradition as a corporation or company, and is entitled to a market share. What I'm trying to say here is, is that companies have to be careful not to steal away customers from larger companies. The larger companies can do a hostile take-over and shut the doors of Pentax if they pleased. Thats the operating environment for Pentax. As an example, I have no doubt that Pentax could develop a top notch sports auto focus system, and lenses. But, they'd be encroaching on a much larger company and stealing its business. Then that would lead to a corporate war.
What Pentax needs to do:
Fix the lens range for K-mount with HD coatings, and restyle some of the lenses.
(Thats my two cents, and that was more than what you asked for !
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