[Stavri]

The NX1 looks to be a very nice camera. I already own an NX20 and a few lenses. There have also been rumours of a FF NX body.



That would be the ultimate slap in the face to all existing Pentax users. In my opinion, it would be the end of the brand. However, I wouldn't put it past Ricoh to change the mount.

Pentax abandoning their K mount on FF is the type of sensationalized news you hear evenings from you local news channels. It will Never happen, at least not for another 20 years, sleep tight.

---

Last edited by Stavri; 09-17-2014 at 09:05 AM.

[johnmflores]

The NX1 looks to be a very nice camera. I already own an NX20 and a few lenses. There have also been rumours of a FF NX body.



That would be the ultimate slap in the face to all existing Pentax users. In my opinion, it would be the end of the brand. However, I wouldn't put it past Ricoh to change the mount.

They may very well have to if the trend for Sony A7 style cameras booms and the trend for DSLRs continues to sag. I'd imagine that Ricoh is watching sales of the A7 and D750 very closely.

Perhaps, with their GXR experience, they can make a short-register FF and also make a fully functional K-mount adapter that doesn't look like a tumor as the Sony E-mount adapter did. Call the new mount K2, the adapter K-Forever, and move forward into a brave new world.

[falconeye]

I think that all those who are jumping ship because of lack of pentax FF, they'll be coming back in little time

Outside of Japan, Pentax has already lost probably 80% or more of its enthusiast user base (film era Pentaxians) since the K10D.

I cannot quite quote a source for it, it is based on Google Trend search term analysis (Pentax vs. Nikon, latter one about stable) and market share analysis (seems to have dropped from 6% to 1.5%). Partly replaced by users appreciating the value of Pentax entry level SLRs. But the number of former Pentaxians I meet in other fora is astonishing

But Pentax has lost enthusiast users in two waves: first waiting for a convincing upgrade to the K10D (K-5 was too late); second waiting for FF, mostly giving up around D700 and D800 release dates.

Given the amount of investment in good FF glass required to fully utilize a FF high resolution body and the period of time between jumping ship and Pentax' likely FF release, I am almost sure that these users won't come back.

It really has to attract new users. The only way I can imagine how to do it with my limited imagination is an aggressively priced multi-aspect 44x33 sensor mirrorless with K mount (long K registration distance, K would allow for a 0.8 crop image circle with not too fast lenses too). And work the K mount market up again from there. Otherwise, it looks pretty damn as a dead end road Pentax is stuck in to me. Nothing but a significant investment would do it for Ricoh, just another FF from Pentax won't do it anymore, it is too late now.

[LFLee]

we will wait till the FF drop in half the price, the 2nd body coming, then only we buy it.

cheap Pentaxian don't deserve to have Pentax FF.

[falconeye]

they can make a short-register FF and also make a fully functional K-mount adapter that doesn't look like a tumor as the Sony E-mount adapter did. Call the new mount K2, the adapter K-Forever, and move forward into a brave new world.

That is an idea iften heard of.

However, I am not sure it is an option to base the future of an optics maker upon.

A few have ventured into looking at image quality degradation caused by adapters and found some, e.g. -> LensRentals.com - There Is No Free Lunch, Episode 763: Lens Adapters

It may be less of a problem with larger sensors, but OTOH, will become more of a concern with the ever increasing resolutions.

[boriscleto]

we will wait till the FF drop in half the price, the 2nd body coming, then only we buy it.

cheap Pentaxian don't deserve to have Pentax FF.

I'm not cheap. I'm poor...

[Stavri]

Outside of Japan, Pentax has already lost probably 80% or more of its enthusiast user base (film era Pentaxians) since the K10D.

I cannot quite quote a source for it, it is based on Google Trend search term analysis (Pentax vs. Nikon, latter one about stable) and market share analysis (seems to have dropped from 6% to 1.5%). Partly replaced by users appreciating the value of Pentax entry level SLRs. But the number of former Pentaxians I meet in other fora is astonishing

But Pentax has lost enthusiast users in two waves: first waiting for a convincing upgrade to the K10D (K-5 was too late); second waiting for FF, mostly giving up around D700 and D800 release dates.

Given the amount of investment in good FF glass required to fully utilize a FF high resolution body and the period of time between jumping ship and Pentax' likely FF release, I am almost sure that these users won't come back.

It really has to attract new users. The only way I can imagine how to do it with my limited imagination is an aggressively priced multi-aspect 44x33 sensor mirrorless with K mount (long K registration distance, K would allow for a 0.8 crop image circle with not too fast lenses too). And work the K mount market up again from there. Otherwise, it looks pretty damn as a dead end road Pentax is stuck in to me. Nothing but a significant investment would do it for Ricoh, just another FF from Pentax won't do it anymore, it is too late now.

That's a very elaborate analysis, I do agree with every word on this statement, Pentax has been slow to update their DSLR, perhaps due to the fact that they've been on unstable financial grounds for a while. I don't have a 30 year perspective on the brand, myself got into the Pentax bandwagon somewhat late (2007), with the k20D, K-5 onto K-3 know. I was selling my DA* 50-135 a few months ago to a interested local buyer so we decided to do the exchange in person. We started talking and realized that we had both been seduced by the brand for the very same reasons. I haven't researched the trends (PF might have some statistics on new forum members subscription figures), but in my own personal experience (and the fact that Pentax is not loosing money at the moment) there seem to be a lot of interest in Pentax from new DSLR user ( with no brand affiliation) who use the web to inform themselves on the best available products for their needs. I chose Pentax because for the money, it produces the highest quality products in its category, and I believe a lot of new buyers are doing the same.

[stevebrot]

OT but just had a look, you could be right....

K85


DA70


Welcome to Bojidar Dimitrov's Pentax K-Mount Page

There are truly only a few commonly-used designs for fixed focal length SLR lenses out there. The differences are in the implementation. All you have to do is compare the image circles and physical size of the lenses in question. They also perform differently.


Steve

---------- Post added 09-17-14 at 09:58 AM ----------

Breaking news: this is the 24x36 SLR Ricoh are showing at Photokina!

They should have contacted a few of our forum members who could have provided them with a copy in much better condition.


Steve

---------- Post added 09-17-14 at 10:00 AM ----------

K-mount lenses: Sony A7-series.

Yep, though I bought a K-3 instead. The EVF gave me a headache after about ten seconds of in-shop evaluation.


Steve

---------- Post added 09-17-14 at 10:03 AM ----------

And I said that because he's seeing Pentax as "the brand which is the most difficult to get rid of".

Am I to understand that you guys actually sell your gear? Damn! What a concept!


Steve

(...there is no ROI on lenses and cameras in the same way there is no ROI on wrenches...)

[lytrytyr]

The only way I can imagine how to do it with my limited imagination is an aggressively priced multi-aspect 44x33 sensor mirrorless with K mount (long K registration distance, K would allow for a 0.8 crop image circle with not too fast lenses too).

I've suggested something like that as well on this forum, but the chances of P-Ricoh engineers and accountants picking up on the idea are small.

[stevebrot]

DIPLOMACY, n. The patriotic art of lying for one's country.

Glad to see my comment was fully understood.


Steve

---------- Post added 09-17-14 at 10:16 AM ----------

Pentax has lost enthusiast users in two waves: first waiting for a convincing upgrade to the K10D (K-5 was too late);

Interesting that you make this point. The K-7 was the closest thing to matching the K10D in terms of potential market impact, but it was just a little shy of the mark. The K-3, on the other hand...

Speaking of the K-3, the most important thing to note about that camera is how easily its functionality has been ported to both the 645Z and K-S1. There is a fundamental misunderstanding on this forum regarding modern manufacturing. The major hurdles are no longer related to tooling. It is fairly trivial to bring a derivative product to market.


Steve

[johnmflores]

Outside of Japan, Pentax has already lost probably 80% or more of its enthusiast user base (film era Pentaxians) since the K10D.

I cannot quite quote a source for it, it is based on Google Trend search term analysis (Pentax vs. Nikon, latter one about stable) and market share analysis (seems to have dropped from 6% to 1.5%). Partly replaced by users appreciating the value of Pentax entry level SLRs. But the number of former Pentaxians I meet in other fora is astonishing

But Pentax has lost enthusiast users in two waves: first waiting for a convincing upgrade to the K10D (K-5 was too late); second waiting for FF, mostly giving up around D700 and D800 release dates.

Given the amount of investment in good FF glass required to fully utilize a FF high resolution body and the period of time between jumping ship and Pentax' likely FF release, I am almost sure that these users won't come back.

As always, an insightful analysis. There have been losses no doubt for the reasons you articulate above, but I do wonder if the new generation of K-x, K-30, K-50, etc… users have replenished those losses? How leaky is the bucket, exactly?

That is an idea iften heard of.

However, I am not sure it is an option to base the future of an optics maker upon.

A few have ventured into looking at image quality degradation caused by adapters and found some, e.g. -> LensRentals.com - There Is No Free Lunch, Episode 763: Lens Adapters

It may be less of a problem with larger sensors, but OTOH, will become more of a concern with the ever increasing resolutions.

Could SR be used to compensate for any alignment issues? You'd have to feed the SR the alignment correction data of course, so a precise way of measuring the adapter alignment in-camera would have to be developed.

Just an idea.

[Biro]

Nothing but a significant investment would do it for Ricoh, just another FF from Pentax won't do it anymore, it is too late now.

Yes, this though keeps running through my head. Pentax may very well introduce a new full-frame camera next year. But it might be too late. I've never been a "Pentax is doomed" type. But, when looking at what Ricoh is offering after owning the brand for this long, I am beginning to be concerned. I wonder if Ricoh is.

[Zygonyx]

@ falconeye : i am not so sure your estimated 1.5 % market-share has any stastistical signifiance. What do you include, SLR + ILC and smartphones alltogether ? What about outsiders like Samsung ? I am the more doubtfull if this is based on ex-Pentax folks you meet on the global social network, part to whom a new SLR has to be produced every 2 years i.o. to maitain their ostentatory status or photog motivation.
Do you have an idea of this effective value before K10D back in 2005 for example ?
Or of any irreversibility law that would apply even on some empiric basis to High Tech markets ?
So i don't think your reasonning sounds credible.

[monochrome]

Perhaps, with their GXR experience, they can make a short-register FF and also make a fully functional K-mount adapter that doesn't look like a tumor as the Sony E-mount adapter did. Call the new mount K2, the adapter K-Forever, and move forward into a brave new world.

That of course assumes they're blowing smoke about Q being their mirrorless mount - and would mean starting from scratch with a 4th mount. Assuming Ricoh has to have 5-10% share in the west, they could do K-mount dSLR's short-term (2015) and a better A7 (Pentax DNA) as the platform investment in 2016 and beyond. Nevertheless, by the time Ricoh got there Hoya had already demolished the company. Further, I am convinced at least a part of the economics of 645D/Z rests on the inventory of FA 645 lenses, versus the liquidated (read smaller) inventory of K-mount FA lenses that Hoya fire-sale liquidated during the low-price-value years.

Otherwise, it looks pretty damn as a dead end road Pentax is stuck in to me. Nothing but a significant investment would do it for Ricoh, just another FF from Pentax won't do it anymore, it is too late now.

A global investment bank Japan division released a research report in the spring of 2012 stating the investment necessary to restore Digicams to a meaningful earnings contributor long-term would be so large as to reduce earnings measurably for a number of quarters short-term.

[mecrox]

As always, an insightful analysis. There have been losses no doubt for the reasons you articulate above, but I do wonder if the new generation of K-x, K-30, K-50, etc… users have replenished those losses? How leaky is the bucket, exactly?



Could SR be used to compensate for any alignment issues? You'd have to feed the SR the alignment correction data of course, so a precise way of measuring the adapter alignment in-camera would have to be developed.

Just an idea.

First, there's an interesting interview on CNET with Jim Malcolm of Pentax in North America. Just published today. Presumably at Photokina. He makes for a much better interview subject come spokesman than the Japanese staffers who usually appear in this role. He confirms the "lost generation of buyers" during the move to digital which is part of the problem of market share today, I'd have thought. There are far more things than this in the interview, however, so let's not allow that to colour the whole picture. A price cut is mentioned, for example. Interestingly, Mr Malcolm has pushed K-mount APS-C out of the picture in what he says, intentionally or not. The article's headline reflects that. The news is the Q and the 645. Thing is, you'd think that the classic APS-C line accounts for the majority of Ricoh's turnover. Perhaps that's wrong or a change is in the offing, in the form of a move away from what folks have always taken to mean "Pentax" as in Pentax = K-mount = DSLR? Or at any rate, less of an emphasis on it. Anyway, the stress is on small but profitable, not large plus rock-bottom deals.

Pentax seeks turnaround with tiny Q, giant 645 cameras - CNET

Second, Google trends

Google Trends

Not good, perhaps, but neither are searches for terms like Fujifilm. One has to remember that if interest in cameras is falling generally then all the main brands will suffer. Interesting when one starts feeding in terms like M43, mirrorless, full-frame digital SLR and so forth though what the outcome means in terms of ringing tills and actual sales is another matter. Thanks to Falconeye for mentioning Google Trends, I vaguely recall using this before but had forgotten all about it.