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09-23-2014, 12:19 AM   #196
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I can't take this BS every day on 20 threads for the next 9 months.
If CP+ brings some actual FF news, I predict that the amount of BS will just increase, regardless of how good the news are

09-23-2014, 12:21 AM   #197
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Meanwhile, I am convinced profit margin is the key word in all of Pentax FF discussion.

I believe to have estimated cost of purchase of a FF sensor to be around $300 in the past. So, manufacturing cost wouldn't be the problem exactly as you say.

But the window of opportunity may already have closed (like I predicted many years ago), meaning that the cost of developping of all the new FF lenses (fast primes, Limiteds are ok, F2.8 zooms) and a new FF body (shutter, mirror) and tooling in the factory can't be spread over enough units sold. Simply because an FF camera is a 1500$ affair in 2015 and because there are so few committed Pentaxians left who could or would buy it (the digital camera market has shrunk to 1/4th size from its peak value and the Pentax market SHARE has shrunk the same amount).

Given the recent interviews done by Ricoh executives, I think I can read the signs on the wall: They want to do high margin products aiming for good profit only. And they will do FF but are still evaluating the market.

This reminds me of Schneider-Kreuznach: At Photokina 2012 they announced 3 high quality SLR primes for Nikon and Canon, to appear in 2013. At Photokina 2014 they announced the exact same 3 lenses, to appear in 2015 ... And this was an official announcement. What Pentax said was inofficial thoughts expressed during an interview.

Showing lab models (mockups?) of two FF lenses w/o markings behind glass again is exactly what to expect in that situation. The lens probably has two buttons because somebody thought "two would be cool" ... the new tele zooms from Sigma and Samsung show how true prototypes of 2015 lenses would look like.

Or in other words: the kind of speech we hear from Ricoh is exactly what to expect if they know they SHOULD do it (because of loosing customers otherwise). But at the same time they know they cannot decide IF to do (because they cannot compile a convincing business case to the Ricoh board).

I am sorry to say, my dear friends. But they may tell the exact same story every Photokina until Pentax K is discontinued (they actually already did Photokina 2012). I.e., they blatantly lie at us. Or at least until Ricoh accepts a revenue-oriented loss-accepting strategy to reconquer lost ground. Which may never happen within a 100,000 employee operation until they sell the brand. After all, Ricoh can live perfectly without a camera division. Remember IBM selling their ThinkPad business?

Actually, I think it is time to start a Kickstarter project to do a decent FE/K AF adapter and leave the higher end "high margin" K bodies for something else. We don't exist to be milked. Don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with the great Pentax APSC products. What I wrote only applies to those waiting for Pentax FF.
I would buy that decent FE/K AF adapter that you mentioned in an instant.

But what about going half way? What if Pentax can't do it on their own, but can do it when joining forces? Like using an off brand mount? Or, the other way round, using an off brand body with a K-mount? How plausible would that be? It has been done before and worked in the M4/3 area.
09-23-2014, 01:02 AM   #198
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QuoteOriginally posted by Class A Quote
I have trouble finding that plausible.

The lie "We are solely focusing on APS-C cameras" would make sense, as it would encourage current Pentax users to upgrade to a K-3, etc.

The lie "We will be launching an FF model in the foreseeable future"
  • does relatively little to keep old school Pentaxians on board (they've heard it all before),
  • is of interest to a shrinking subset of Pentaxians only, and
  • is likely to impede on current APS-C sales.
It just does not seem to make sense to (unofficially) communicate that an FF launch is imminent, if the latter is not planned.

What about the explanation that the 645Z has been the centre of attention at Pentax -- they have even developed a tethering software for it! -- and now that 645Z development has concluded, the FF development can proceed with reasonable speed?

I agree with you that Pentax lost a lot of valuable time, but I hope it is not too late yet and I certainly do not believe they are trying to mislead their hardcore user base.
My impression is that a lot of what is said has to be seen in the context of Japanese culture which seems to have many ways of saying "No" or "It's completely undecided and up in the air" indirectly - things which non-Japanese listeners then take to mean "Yes" or "Very likely", especially if that is what they want to hear. I think it's very unlikely indeed that someone would tell a deliberate untruth. The damage to reputation would be huge quite apart from it not being an honourable way to behave. Hence the circumlocution which avoids an untruth while also avoiding giving offence. Anyway, who knows what will happen. There is far too little to go on to know even vaguely, imho. If Ricoh is a Japanese company and if the market for their camera products is mainly in Japan, then there's some likelihood that we in the West will misread just about every sign that comes from them.
09-23-2014, 01:22 AM - 1 Like   #199
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Lie or not, Pentax being completely open and honest about this subject would calm down a lot of angst, good news or bad. It would also be a strategical nightmare, so I would completely understand such a lie. It should however be a short term strategy. After so many years the uncertainty is going to cost them.


QuoteOriginally posted by Class A Quote
The lie "We will be launching an FF model in the foreseeable future"
  • does relatively little to keep old school Pentaxians on board (they've heard it all before),
Many old school Pentaxians on this very informative forum, who have experienced the bi-anually empty promises and rumors multiple times before, seem to be overwhelmed with joy with this latest and greatest promiss. Yes, it certainly does seem to keep them on board.



QuoteOriginally posted by Class A Quote
  • is of interest to a shrinking subset of Pentaxians only, and
Even new Pentaxians find themselves facing the lack of upgrade path when they progress. Yes, they could (should?) have known there was none, but do they realise that when they start off in practice? No, a lot beginners don't even know what a 35mm format is. By the time they do they got a body, maybe even two, and a collection of lenses. Oh, and the promiss that Pentax will be releasing that FF in the near future. So, no panic, they can wait for that...

09-23-2014, 01:25 AM - 1 Like   #200
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
My impression is that a lot of what is said has to be seen in the context of Japanese culture which seems to have many ways of saying "No" or "It's completely undecided and up in the air" indirectly - things which non-Japanese listeners then take to mean "Yes" or "Very likely", especially if that is what they want to hear. I think it's very unlikely indeed that someone would tell a deliberate untruth. The damage to reputation would be huge quite apart from it not being an honourable way to behave. Hence the circumlocution which avoids an untruth while also avoiding giving offence. Anyway, who knows what will happen. There is far too little to go on to know even vaguely, imho. If Ricoh is a Japanese company and if the market for their camera products is mainly in Japan, then there's some likelihood that we in the West will misread just about every sign that comes from them.
Do you know the difference between a diplomat and a society woman?

If a diplomat says "yes", it means may be. If he says "may be", it means no. If he says "no", he is not a diplomat.

If a society woman says "no", it means may be. If she says "may be", it means yes. If she says "yes", she is not a society woman.
09-23-2014, 01:42 AM   #201
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
Even new Pentaxians find themselves facing the lack of upgrade path when they progress. Yes, they could (should?) have known there was none, but do they realise that when they start off in practice? No, a lot beginners don't even know what a 35mm format is. By the time they do they got a body, maybe even two, and a collection of lenses. Oh, and the promiss that Pentax will be releasing that FF in the near future. So, no panic, they can wait for that...
I wonder how important this "upgrade path" really is? It's seems to be an industry shibboleth. However, currently only two companies really offer it, at least cleanly: Nikon and Canon. An upgrade path between different formats really seems an accident of history. Since digital took off with APS-C, an upgrade path came into being when FF began to appear. Beyond that, however, there has never been any upgrade path, I would guess? It's one format or the other. Of course someone can upgrade by buying a superior camera using the same format, or a better range of lenses for the same format, but this is a different kind of path and in historical terms one presumes the normal one in the industry. I wonder if the present upgrade path between formats will soon vanish? There will be FF and there will be a variety of smaller formats quite likely using a different form factor. "Upgrade paths" if possible at all would have to be done by adapter.

Anyway, Fuji, Panasonic, Olympus, Samsung and in large part Sony seem to exist very happily without any upgrade path at all in this newer sense.

Another view is that the camera industry is ramping up to dump traditional APS-C users. They won't actually be led out to walk the plank but just abandoned in the cold wastes of No Lurv from Us. The money will migrate one way into FF and another way into a variety of smaller formats using mirrorless tech. In that sense, the camera companies may see the current APS-C/FF upgrade path as more in the nature of Life Preserver.
09-23-2014, 01:43 AM   #202
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Well I think that we won't see a FF soon. Simply because I don't see enough sales. But I also think that in body stabilisation, our SR is to difficult to make it good for the company. So the technical thing is preventing us from seeing it. Growing marketshare is important. Finding young customers is important. Coming with a larger sensor then aps-c, so giving better IQ is also important. We will see.

The current market for digital camera's who do nothing else then taking images (or video) is still shrinking and will do that also in 2015. So we don't hit 40 million unit sales this year (unless 7D Mark II hits hard, but al those second hand 7D's wil have impact on the market too) but stay under it. Next year we maybe even dive under 30 million units. Less then 25 % of what the market once was.
09-23-2014, 02:01 AM   #203
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Well I think that we won't see a FF soon. Simply because I don't see enough sales. But I also think that in body stabilisation, our SR is to difficult to make it good for the company. So the technical thing is preventing us from seeing it. Growing marketshare is important. Finding young customers is important. Coming with a larger sensor then aps-c, so giving better IQ is also important. We will see.

The current market for digital camera's who do nothing else then taking images (or video) is still shrinking and will do that also in 2015. So we don't hit 40 million unit sales this year (unless 7D Mark II hits hard, but al those second hand 7D's wil have impact on the market too) but stay under it. Next year we maybe even dive under 30 million units. Less then 25 % of what the market once was.
What do you mean by soon.. this year.. correct.. next year wrong! Pentax K-mount DSLR FF is coming next year! We have had five different sources confirm that FF is coming. We have two FF zooms displayed at Photokina. We have a rumor that the FA Limiteds are getting a refresh. What more evidence do you need? The only thing that will satisfy the naysayers is an official announcement from Ricoh and that isn't going to happen till next year. You just upset because no APS-H rumors?

09-23-2014, 02:05 AM - 1 Like   #204
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Ron just thinks APS-H is his format. APS-Hendriks
09-23-2014, 02:30 AM   #205
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QuoteOriginally posted by D1N0 Quote
Ron just thinks APS-H is his format. APS-Hendriks
LOL
BTW, I thought Ron obtained the copyright for APS-H on Pentaxforums?
09-23-2014, 02:36 AM   #206
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QuoteOriginally posted by Tesla Quote
What do you mean by soon.. this year.. correct.. next year wrong! Pentax K-mount DSLR FF is coming next year! We have had five different sources confirm that FF is coming. We have two FF zooms displayed at Photokina. We have a rumor that the FA Limiteds are getting a refresh. What more evidence do you need? The only thing that will satisfy the naysayers is an official announcement from Ricoh and that isn't going to happen till next year. You just upset because no APS-H rumors?
All sourses are one rumor and nothing else. We have no any official confirmation. The confirmation is prototype of camera like it was with 645 project.
09-23-2014, 02:42 AM   #207
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
I wonder how important this "upgrade path" really is? It's seems to be an industry shibboleth. However, currently only two companies really offer it, at least cleanly: Nikon and Canon. An upgrade path between different formats really seems an accident of history. Since digital took off with APS-C, an upgrade path came into being when FF began to appear. Beyond that, however, there has never been any upgrade path, I would guess? It's one format or the other.
Fair point. You're right of course, even in the film days APS and 35mm would be completely different systems. Why would it be any different now? I can only think of 1 reasons:
  • The K-mount is not a dedicated APSC mount. It is in fact a 35mm mount. Why then needlessly introduce incompatibility?
  • There's this mass of users that are expecting to use their legacy 35mm format lenses on that 35mm format camera. Excluding that would make a lot of people angry. I don't think that is so strange.
QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Anyway, Fuji, Panasonic, Olympus, Samsung and in large part Sony seem to exist very happily without any upgrade path at all in this newer sense.
I don't know about the other brands, but you can use FE and E mount lenses on both FE and E mount cameras. They chose to implement it his way even though this new system wasn't bothered by legacy obligation. It has some obvious advantages.
09-23-2014, 02:42 AM   #208
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Do you know the difference between a diplomat and a society woman?

If a diplomat says "yes", it means may be. If he says "may be", it means no. If he says "no", he is not a diplomat.

If a society woman says "no", it means may be. If she says "may be", it means yes. If she says "yes", she is not a society woman.
LOL
09-23-2014, 02:48 AM   #209
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I don't think there is any reason for pessimism. If having full frame cameras is the only way a company can survive, then Sigma, Panasonic, Olympus and Fuji are all screwed. Fuji and the four thirds folks don't even have the option of putting a larger sensor in their mount, as it isn't big enough.

There may be some companies currently making cameras that won't be making cameras in another five years. I am no good at predicting these sorts of things, so I won't do it now, but I don't think it will be based on whether or not they have a full frame option. They will survive based on whether or not they can release cameras and lenses that appeal to the market and sell. This is a tough thing as time goes by and people are satisfied with their current SLR and/or cell phone camera.

As to whether or not Ricoh has missed the boat with regard to full frame, I doubt it. Certainly there are cheaper and cheaper full frames coming out. Nothing says that Ricoh would have to enter that segment of the market (they wouldn't) or, that they have to sell a million cameras in order to turn a profit (they wouldn't). They just need to pick a good sensor and specify a camera such that it will compete against similarly priced cameras from Canon/Nikon/Sony. The D800/5D Mk III segment is still pricey and I would imagine that they would target this or just under it.

I don't see any particular reason for pessimism. Ricoh is conservative. They will think their options through carefully and release the best products they can for the market situation at this time. There is no guarantee that they will be successful, but I have a lot more confidence than I did during the dark days under Hoya.
09-23-2014, 03:03 AM   #210
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Another view is that the camera industry is ramping up to dump traditional APS-C users. They won't actually be led out to walk the plank but just abandoned in the cold wastes of No Lurv from Us. The money will migrate one way into FF and another way into a variety of smaller formats using mirrorless tech. In that sense, the camera companies may see the current APS-C/FF upgrade path as more in the nature of Life Preserver.
Very much so though it wont be that fast. The FF market is still at its infancy, covering likely less than, perhaps, 5%? In my opinion there is still room for development within APS-C. For instance, I think I like the new 70D mkII...
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