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09-23-2014, 04:28 AM   #211
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QuoteOriginally posted by Class A Quote
I have trouble finding that plausible.
...
The lie "We will be launching an FF model in the foreseeable future"
...
It just does not seem to make sense to (unofficially) communicate that an FF launch is imminent, if the latter is not planned.
As I wrote earlier, Schneider-Kreuznach did the exact same and it was after I was realizing the nature of half-hearted Photokina "announcements" I wrote my comment. What Pentax said is just vague enough to not call it lie if it will never happen.

Personally, I believe the FF project internally within Ricoh has no green light because of a missing business case (they may have gotten green light for predevelopments, but that's about it, probably). I think the imaging division managers really would like to go for it. So, they are making half-hearted announcements and ghost lens roadmaps and mockups to basically test the waters. And intensify the pressure onto the Ricoh board to jump into cold water.

That's my personal believe and a speculation, of course. But to me, this is the only plausible scenario I could imagine which explains what Pentax did at Photokina this year.

And I really hope their strategy succeeds. The external indication for us that it did is Ricoh stops to tell this nonsense about not going for revenue. They need to want to grow. If this doesn't happen then indeed I fear to hear the same story next Photokina.

09-23-2014, 04:37 AM - 1 Like   #212
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
Many old school Pentaxians on this very informative forum, who have experienced the bi-anually empty promises and rumors multiple times before, seem to be overwhelmed with joy with this latest and greatest promiss. Yes, it certainly does seem to keep them on board.
But for how long will the rumour keep them on board?

Every time Pentax suggests an FF model is being developed, a number of FF aficionados postpone their plans to switch brands but after a while they lose patience and switch after all. Pretending that an FF model is going to be launched while there is no actual intention to do so would only postpone losing a smaller and smaller core of customers, while doing actual damage to APS-C sales immediately.

I do believe that it does not make sense to damage APS-C sales just in order to keep a shrinking customer core deluded that won't be significantly contributing to new lens sales anyhow (this core has their FF lenses ready to go). If Pentax knew that they are not going to launch an FF model, AFAIC, it would be mandatory for them to categorically deny any FF development rumours. They'd lose some customers straight away, but postponing these customer losses is not worth losing APS-C strength right now.
09-23-2014, 04:39 AM   #213
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QuoteOriginally posted by ogl Quote
All sourses are one rumor and nothing else. We have no any official confirmation. The confirmation is prototype of camera like it was with 645 project.
Source 1: Development of Pentax Full-Frame DSLR is Officially Underway | PhotographyBLOG
Source 2: Ricoh confirms the Pentax full frame camera is coming in 2015 | Photo Rumors
Source 3: PF Interview with Ricoh Imaging at Photokina 2014 - Photokina 2014 | PentaxForums.com
Source 4: Ricoh Confirms Plans for "Full Frame" Pentax DSLR - Page 2 - Rangefinderforum.com
Source 5: https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/169-pentax-full-frame/273259-cp-2015-ff-3.html#post2952228

These are not same source repeated on different sites.
09-23-2014, 04:51 AM - 1 Like   #214
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
As I wrote earlier, Schneider-Kreuznach did the exact same and it was after I was realizing the nature of half-hearted Photokina "announcements" I wrote my comment.
You may, of course, be right after all.

However, I hesitate to extrapolate what happened at Schneider-Kreuznach to a Japanese company within a different context.

QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
What Pentax said is just vague enough to not call it lie if it will never happen.
For sure Pentax will never be able to be held accountable for any vague and particular unofficial indications that have been given to customers at trade shows.

But clearly Ricoh must realise that sites like PetaPixel will spread news like the FF model confirmation from Pentax France like wildfire and make the "FF launch" a de facto truth. The only responsible course of action on behalf of Ricoh in case they did not intend to release an FF model soon, would be to officially and categorically deny any FF plans.

Showing the FF lens prototypes without an intention to follow through with an FF camera would also be foul play, IMO.

QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
So, they are making half-hearted announcements and ghost lens roadmaps and mockups to basically test the waters.
I found it most interesting that at Photokina, I have received information about a Pentax FF camera model from another company.

If Ricoh really wanted to deceive customers then they'd be doing it by misinforming at least one other company as well. I find that very unlikely.

Also, I believe creating the lens prototypes is too expensive just in order to dangle a carrot in front of a few Pentax faithful.

It seems to me that a certain Pentax customer core is dying away and will completely disappear, if Ricoh does not get their FF act together soon. I just don't see the point to artificially prolong that process while causing damage to APS-C sales by doing so.

09-23-2014, 05:13 AM   #215
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Really, why does anyone give a flying f***?

If ultimate resolution is a serious bread and butter issue, the pros can buy into 645z. The rest of us can continue to subsist on the current APS-C offerings from Pentax, or move on to the greener pastures of SoNikCanOny. If a fully-small format Pentax DSLR ever eventuates, great: I'll be slapping my "full frame" lenses all over it. In the meantime, I'll be off making images with the gear I have.

So much acrimony. So few clues.

Adios.
09-23-2014, 05:38 AM   #216
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QuoteOriginally posted by Tesla Quote

These are not same source repeated on different sites.
It doesn't mean that FF camera will be launched in 2015.
09-23-2014, 05:58 AM - 1 Like   #217
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QuoteOriginally posted by Class A Quote
a certain Pentax customer core is dying away and will completely disappear
'Stock and flow'.

The user population is very dynamic. At any one point in time, there may be a static core of users, but others will be continuously flowing in and out of the brand - from the bottom, from the top, from the side. Same with all brands.

Some people may even decide to simultaneously use several different camera brands or formats for different purposes. People are doing it today - like the lens rental guy who uses Pentax for APS-C but Canon for full-frame, and in future folks may decide to use Pentax for full-frame and Canon for APS-C. And today some uber-pros use Pentax 645Z in the studio alongside Nikon full-frame, and shoot Panasonic M4/3 when doing casual shooting. In two years many of these same users may swap things around again, for various reasons.

All of this market dynamism gives Ricoh ample opportunity to create a viable space for full-frame and the 'Pentax story' in the marketplace.
09-23-2014, 06:03 AM   #218
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
As I wrote earlier, Schneider-Kreuznach did the exact same and it was after I was realizing the nature of half-hearted Photokina "announcements" I wrote my comment. What Pentax said is just vague enough to not call it lie if it will never happen.

(...).
Schneider Kreuznach explained what happened with them. At Photokina 2012 they announced the development (not the launch) of three series of lenses:

3 4/3 lenses:

- Super-Angulon 14mm f/2
- Xenon 30mm f/1.4
- Makro-Symmar 60mm f/2.4

3 video-oriented 24x36 lenses a.k.a. 'FF Primes':

- Video Xenon 25mm T/2.1
- Video Xenon 50mm T/2.1
- Video Xenon 75mm T/2.1

4 other 24x36 lenses:

- Xenon 35mm f/1.4
- Xenon 50mm f/1.4
- Makro-Symmar 85mm f/2.4
- PC-TS Super-Angulon 28mm f/4,5 HM Asph (tilt & shift)

Their 'FF Prime' video lenses have been a huge commercial success, to the point that they added progressively four new lenses to the initial three:

- 35mm T/2.1 (NAB 2013)
- 100mm T/2.1 (IBC 2013)
- 18mm T/2.4 (Photokina 2014)
- 135mm T/2.1 (Photokina 2014)

Of course, the development of their other projects suffered from this focus (no pun intended) on the 'FF-Prime' series: among the other lenses announced at Photokina 2012, only the PC-TS Super-Angulon 28mm f/4,5 HM Asph has been launched as of today. The three other 24x36 lenses are scheduled to market in one year from now and two of the three 4/3 lenses (14/2 and 30/2.4) are at an advanced stage of development.

falconeye, a link for you:

photokina 2014: Schneider-Kreuznach zeigt neue Xenon-FF-Primes und Kleinbildobjektive | photoscala

09-23-2014, 06:20 AM   #219
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+1
That makes indeed quite a brunch of potential liars...

Unless "Saint Thomas" has made quite a lot of emules here...

But don't forget Pentax is a small business, and Ricoh is keen not to loose big money in it.
To their credit, Ricoh have not changed their mind since take-over re. 35mm.
So i am confident great things are to come soon / listen to asahi man : don't worry, be happy !
09-23-2014, 06:22 AM   #220
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There might be one very good reason for Ricoh to delay production on a FF body. It would be the same reason Fuji has delayed the X-Pro 1 and Sony wont announce any new bodies until January. There is new sensor technology right around the corner. Fuji and Panasonic have had organic sensors in prototypes and are close to putting them into production. Maybe we will see BSI sensors on a larger scale. I remember a lot of internet experts saying we would never see a BSI APS-C sensor because of heat issues, and now Samsung has put one into the NX-1. Can Samsung produce a FF BSI sensor?
Fujifilm and Panasonic jointly develop an organic CMOS image sensor technology using organic photoelectric conversion layer | Fujifilm Global

Sony is also introducing a new line of sensors in January. Sony makes BSI sensors or small applications and they have been working on their own organic sensor technology.

Hopefully the delays from Ricoh are due to wanting to introduce a FF body with the best sensor possible and not simply because after 3 years they still don't have their $h!t together.
09-23-2014, 06:24 AM   #221
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
As I wrote earlier, Schneider-Kreuznach did the exact same and it was after I was realizing the nature of half-hearted Photokina "announcements" I wrote my comment. What Pentax said is just vague enough to not call it lie if it will never happen.

Personally, I believe the FF project internally within Ricoh has no green light because of a missing business case (they may have gotten green light for predevelopments, but that's about it, probably). I think the imaging division managers really would like to go for it. So, they are making half-hearted announcements and ghost lens roadmaps and mockups to basically test the waters. And intensify the pressure onto the Ricoh board to jump into cold water.

That's my personal believe and a speculation, of course. But to me, this is the only plausible scenario I could imagine which explains what Pentax did at Photokina this year.

And I really hope their strategy succeeds. The external indication for us that it did is Ricoh stops to tell this nonsense about not going for revenue. They need to want to grow. If this doesn't happen then indeed I fear to hear the same story next Photokina.
Not much growth in FF. Price is too high.

So they need to compete on price. One way to do that is not trying to be everything to everyone, which is a drag on Canon and Nikon. Pentax has to stay away from the "sticker shock" effect of Canikon.

I still do not see a viable mirrorless option for the Ricoh-/Pentax brand. The GR has it but the Q does not (dead last in all mirrorless sales metrics).

A modest FF offering with value combined with a stellar APS-C offering, and an in-house mirrorless, second system is a strategy. The entire history of prosumer photography has been about investing in multiple systems. Ricoh/Pentax has trouble bracketing the market, but they are close. Canon and Nikon are so afraid of cannibalizing their DSLR sales they are only bridging through smaller sensors. That is why I think the GR/GXR effort was kicking the door open...a door that should stay open.
09-23-2014, 06:29 AM   #222
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Personally, I believe the FF project internally within Ricoh has no green light because of a missing business case (they may have gotten green light for predevelopments, but that's about it, probably). I think the imaging division managers really would like to go for it. So, they are making half-hearted announcements and ghost lens roadmaps and mockups to basically test the waters. And intensify the pressure onto the Ricoh board to jump into cold water.

And I really hope their strategy succeeds. The external indication for us that it did is Ricoh stops to tell this nonsense about not going for revenue. They need to want to grow. If this doesn't happen then indeed I fear to hear the same story next Photokina.
So how low do you think the market will go? Personally I believe that the market for camera's with lenses (dslr and milc) will go down to 12 million a year like it was years ago. The hype of taking images as a hobby is going bye and pro's have less sales due to disapearring printed media. Camera's are that good so you don't have to buy a new one unless it's broken.

Then the question how many of them are Full Frame? Well in the coming 12 months the 7D Mark II is maybe the best selling dslr since all those people have waited long enough on this handling the 7D for some extra years. At least the 7D users I know will al order one very soon. Half of that market will be MILC with smaller sensors then FF. So maybe 15-20 % of the market will be FF and maybe 5 % of them could be for Pentax.

Is that viable to start that new line of lenses to pair with a new FF body? Or are there more chances for Pentax?
09-23-2014, 06:49 AM   #223
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
So how low do you think the market will go? Personally I believe that the market for camera's with lenses (dslr and milc) will go down to 12 million a year like it was years ago. The hype of taking images as a hobby is going bye and pro's have less sales due to disapearring printed media. Camera's are that good so you don't have to buy a new one unless it's broken.

(...)
(Much) less than that.

09-23-2014, 06:57 AM   #224
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OK, add on Samsung, Leica and JK Imaging market volumes to that lot
09-23-2014, 07:09 AM   #225
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
OK, add on Samsung, Leica and JK Imaging market volumes to that lot
That will indeed have a tremendous impact on the outcome .
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