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10-21-2014, 03:07 AM   #616
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
Where are you getting your numbers?
I won't speak on behalf of Aristophanes but hereafter is my own rough calculation:

- estimated market for cameras with interchangeable lenses in 2014: 14 million cameras

- of which 25% are mirrorless cameras and 75% (10.5 million) DSLRs (this is the current split)

- share of 24x36 DSLRs among total DSLRs: between 5% and 10%, thus 0.5 to 1 million 24x36 DSLRs to be sold in 2014

- Pentax's potential market share: between 3% and 5%.

These estimates lead to a market for Pentax 24x36 DSLRs comprised between 15,000 and 50,000 cameras per year.

10-21-2014, 05:52 AM   #617
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
I won't speak on behalf of Aristophanes but hereafter is my own rough calculation:

- estimated market for cameras with interchangeable lenses in 2014: 14 million cameras

- of which 25% are mirrorless cameras and 75% (10.5 million) DSLRs (this is the current split)

- share of 24x36 DSLRs among total DSLRs: between 5% and 10%, thus 0.5 to 1 million 24x36 DSLRs to be sold in 2014

- Pentax's potential market share: between 3% and 5%.

These estimates lead to a market for Pentax 24x36 DSLRs comprised between 15,000 and 50,000 cameras per year.
I think the marketshare for FF is even a little bigger. Somewhere between 9-12 % I guess, but we will see those figures in januari. The biggest hump of those FF camera's will be taken by the cheaper camera's. So as long as Pentax could bring a good offer in the pricerange below D750 then there is a market.

Now on the 2015 expectation's. So I expect the market to shrink. For dslr down to 8.5 million, down about 20 %. In this shrinking market the FF share will go up. So a growth to 15 % max would be possible.

Still a smal market, but there is a market. On the optimistic side, somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 camera's. Can that fill a productionline and sell camera's at a profit?
10-21-2014, 06:34 AM   #618
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Can that fill a productionline and sell camera's at a profit?
Can they net $1,000,000 a year, out the factory door (not the retail price but the factory price) on a FF camera? 10,000 units a year at $100 a unit net = $1,000,000.

Of course one does not know how much fixed cost (assignment of P&E expense) there is / unit, variable cost (assignment of assembly workers costs) there is / unit, nor how they account R&D cost / unit, nor whether a FF camera is the BEST use of these costs.

Last edited by monochrome; 10-21-2014 at 06:39 AM.
10-21-2014, 07:25 AM   #619
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
- share of 24x36 DSLRs among total DSLRs: between 5% and 10%, thus 0.5 to 1 million 24x36 DSLRs to be sold in 2014

- Pentax's potential market share: between 3% and 5%.
These are the two numbers that really are questionable. What % of DSLR's sold in 2014 have been FF? What % in 2015? Again, some exec (I believe Sony) said that FF was the only sub-market of DSLR's that's increasing.

10-21-2014, 11:20 AM   #620
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
These are the two numbers that really are questionable. What % of DSLR's sold in 2014 have been FF? What % in 2015? Again, some exec (I believe Sony) said that FF was the only sub-market of DSLR's that's increasing.
Hence my 5 to 10 per cent. in volume (number of units sold). 5% in volume / 10% in turnover is an estimate which was given a couple of years ago.

And I presume Sony were merely speaking about their Alpha 7/7R (mirrorless camera), not their Alpha 99 (pseudo-DSLR).
10-21-2014, 12:00 PM   #621
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Hence my 5 to 10 per cent. in volume (number of units sold). 5% in volume / 10% in turnover is an estimate which was given a couple of years ago.

And I presume Sony were merely speaking about their Alpha 7/7R (mirrorless camera), not their Alpha 99 (pseudo-DSLR).
They said 'mirrorless and full frame' if I recall correctly and I probably don't. From that statement I took it as Alpha 99 rather than Alpha 7.

But then again I might be misremembering the company from which the speaker was from, so take it with a few pounds of salt.
10-21-2014, 12:06 PM   #622
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
nor whether a FF camera is the BEST use of these costs
That cost/ benefit would need to be spread across various factories, however, since they make cameras and assemble lenses in different locations. Costing gets very complicated the wider you cast the net.

Pentax also expect to make money from selling lenses, of course. Maybe even today they make more money selling lenses than from selling camera bodies. A FF body will be the necessary platform for selling some new, good margin FF lenses. As well as perhaps encouraging more lens sales overall in all formats to both new and existing Pentax buyers, due to the FF halo effect.
10-21-2014, 12:29 PM   #623
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
That cost/ benefit would need to be spread across various factories, however, since they make cameras and assemble lenses in different locations. Costing gets very complicated the wider you cast the net.

Pentax also expect to make money from selling lenses, of course. Maybe even today they make more money selling lenses than from selling camera bodies. A FF body will be the necessary platform for selling some new, good margin FF lenses. As well as perhaps encouraging more lens sales overall in all formats to both new and existing Pentax buyers, due to the FF halo effect.
Sure, so all these 2nd-derivative effects make the decision even . . . . . . . . .simpler, right?

10-21-2014, 12:55 PM   #624
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
so all these 2nd-derivative effects make the decision even simpler, right?
Complex business decisions are often a hard call. One should econometrically model whole national or regional economies before spending a dime on any new product or investment. Technically and prudentially, it's always be the right thing to do.

Luckily for us, Ricoh don't need to do all that, since they know the market pretty well and have been making cameras for decades. They can 'fly by the seat of their pants' on FF, and they'll probably do OK.
10-21-2014, 03:33 PM   #625
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Luckily for us, Ricoh don't need to do all that, since they know the market pretty well and have been making cameras for decades. They can 'fly by the seat of their pants' on FF, and they'll probably do OK.
FWIW I am preparing myself to be an early adopter. And if it never happens then I'll have a simple, premium, 5-lens kit that will do what I want to do with a K-3.
10-22-2014, 12:34 AM   #626
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QuoteOriginally posted by osv Quote
it's hard to imagine thom hogan being open-minded; this is a guy who thinks that nikon users don't want manual focus... and he could be right.

with the d810 costing an extra $1k over the a7r, with little to no gain in p.q., sony is free to set prices where they want... mirrorless is a lot cheaper to produce than dslrs.

when canikon/pentax step into the 21st century, and start producing ff mirrorless/evf cameras, we'll see the prices for ff drop quite a bit.

so the ff vs. crop sensor market share differences could be radically different in five years, because everyone is back to selling the same thing.
Also when is Sony going to step in as being a serious lens maker and provide finally something usefull on their A7 line?

There only a few lenses with slow apperture, still they remain big essentially... Because of mirorless. Last time I checked photozone review of transtandard Sony for A7r, the review concluded with a 2.5/5 overall score, bad border performance (>2EV vigneting and big decrease in sharpness) and more importantly with very bad bokeh. And they give it the Zeiss name.

When you just look at the body spec Sony A7 familly look good and cheap. When you look at the lenses specs they look expensive and quite big with slow apperture. While the shorter registration distance give a clear adventage to APSC where the mount where designed with FF in mind and help a lot on wide angle, there is no such thing on FF. FF reflex have a good registration distance. Mirorless FF have a short registration distance that make the design of lenses more complex and also make them longer.

I don't make photos with prototype for the next century, I make photo with real camera that need to be practical, have a good offering of lenses and if possible that is lightweight. As of now Pentax FF offering is better with the 3 FA ltd than Sony with their mirorless lenses. As of now sony try to be in the compact segment with it's A7 familly but doesn't manage to be really smaller if you have 2-3 lenses with you than any APSC body and they also fail to provide better high iso performance or better dof control. I mean, the large apperture are just not there. Somebody with an f/2.8 zoom on APSC will be on par with A7 on its f/4 lense. Well maybe the bokeh will be better on the APSC lense that may also be cheaper.

The best to do on an A7 is to mount it with some nice lenses from other manufacturers with an adaptor. That kind of strange.
10-22-2014, 03:18 AM   #627
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
... As of now Pentax FF offering is better with the 3 FA ltd than Sony with their mirorless lenses. As of now sony try to be in the compact segment with it's A7 familly but doesn't manage to be really smaller if you have 2-3 lenses with you than any APSC body and they also fail to provide better high iso performance or better dof control. I mean, the large apperture are just not there. Somebody with an f/2.8 zoom on APSC will be on par with A7 on its f/4 lense. Well maybe the bokeh will be better on the APSC lense that may also be cheaper.

The best to do on an A7 is to mount it with some nice lenses from other manufacturers with an adaptor. That kind of strange.
As of now, there is no Pentax FF, at least on digital which is what actually matters for the future of Ricoh. Don't you think this might have some bearing on things? Look around sites like fredmiranda and you will see some absolutely superb images taken with the A7 family, as good as any shown anywhere. While that is down to great skill behind the camera, it also means that when used well the A7 family can produce top results. Sure, these cameras aren't perfect and in fact have some oft-remarked blemishes, but then what is perfect. However, they are out there right now and have been for a while too. You can buy one today and, another important point, for considerably less than a similar camera from Nikon, say. For many folks, affordable FF + adapter = bliss, whereas eye-watering sticker price FF + lens lock-in = purgatory. Your other points - that APS-C can beat FF with regard to ISO, DOF, bokeh, etc. - are a little wide of the mark? Plenty of reasons for preferring one over the other, but there is really no absolute bar to set things against. A good photographer would get a stunning shot out of either.

Bear in mind that almost no one has $$$ lying around to spend on camera equipment (except on the internet where no one knows you aren't a billionaire ). The Sony approach has given many people an opportunity the old camera companies would never have allowed them. We should welcome such disruption even if the items aren't what we'd choose for ourselves. Here's an example: where I live, quite a lot of folks now buy camera equipment direct from Hong Kong using one of the many companies which offer this service, like DigitalRev (the company deals with warranties and repairs). Were I to do that, I could buy a Sony A7 for less than the price of a K3 in a regular store here and a Sony A7r for not much more. Things like this must be causing a few cold sweats among the old-school camera mafia in Tokyo because there is really no prospect of stopping it. The traditional camera business is being eaten away by all sorts of pressures.

Last edited by mecrox; 10-22-2014 at 08:17 AM.
10-22-2014, 04:44 AM   #628
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
As of now, there is no Pentax FF, at least on digital which is what actually matters for the future of Ricoh. Don't you think this might have some bearing on things? Look around sites like fredmiranda and you will see some absolutely superb images taken with the A7 family, as good as any shown anywhere. While that is down to great skill behind the camera, it also means that when used well the A7 family can produce top results. Sure, these cameras aren't perfect and in fact have some oft-remarked blemishes, but then what is perfect. However, they are out there right now and have been for a while too. You can buy one today and, another important point, for considerably less than a similar camera from Nikon, say. For many folks, affordable FF + adapter = bliss, whereas eye-watering sticker price FF + lens lock-in = purgatory. Your other points - that APS-C can beat FF with regard to ISO, DOF, bokeh, etc. - are a little wide of the mark? Plenty of reasons for preferring one over the other, but there is really no absolute bar to set things against. A good photographer would get a stunning shot out of either.

Bear in mind that almost no one (except on the internet where no one knows you aren't a billionaire ) has $$$ lying around to spend on camera equipment. The Sony approach has given many people an opportunity the old camera companies would never have allowed them. We should welcome such disruption even if the items aren't what we'd choose for ourselves. Here's a example: where I live, quite a lot of folks now buy camera equipment direct from Hong Kong using one of the many companies which now offer this service, like DigitalRev (the company deals with warranties and repairs). Were I do that that, I could buy a Sony A7 for less than the price of a K3 in a regular shop here and a Sony A7r for not much more. The traditional camera business is being eaten away by all sorts of pressures.
Sony is good spec wise and price wise. But it no so good in practice. Not it is bad. I mean any camera m4/3 or wider come with fantastic quality at low iso anyway. But this was more it is not the revolution some explain here. This is just a fair price offering with a really unimpressive lens offering (expensive, low specs, average optical quality, no choice). So if you plan to reuse your old manual lenses, that pretty good as you leverage fully the EVF. But that's about it. If you buy an A7 for it's own echosystem, it is one of worst available here.
10-22-2014, 04:53 AM   #629
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
Sony is good spec wise and price wise. But it no so good in practice. Not it is bad. I mean any camera m4/3 or wider come with fantastic quality at low iso anyway. But this was more it is not the revolution some explain here. This is just a fair price offering with a really unimpressive lens offering (expensive, low specs, average optical quality, no choice). So if you plan to reuse your old manual lenses, that pretty good as you leverage fully the EVF. But that's about it. If you buy an A7 for it's own echosystem, it is one of worst available here.
I agree with you although there are one or two good FE lenses now, but my point is that Sony struck lucky through consequences they may not have foreseen . A combination of relatively inexpensive body + adapter + the huge, huge glut of legacy lenses out there = good news for canny buyers, and the word started to spread. And, as I said, in capable hands the results are excellent. It's just one more pressure and leakage of sales the old camera companies don't need but cannot stop.
10-22-2014, 09:18 AM   #630
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
When you look at the lenses specs they look expensive and quite big with slow apperture.
You must hate Pentax... I guess the slight increase in length is enough to turn you off?
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