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10-20-2014, 10:13 PM   #616
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Not everyone would migrate to FF and those who decided to stay with DX would still want good image quality especially with 24 megapixel DX sensors, so I think the DA*16-50mm would still have a place in the Pentax lens line up. It was interesting to note that many Nikon shooters who worked with D700s, D800s,etc. also bought D7000s and D7100s for the telephoto reach and as a lighter weight travel kit. Nikon shooters have long lamented that there was no successor to the D300S for just that reason. The two are not mutually exclusive. The comparative cost of good quality DX and FX glass makes it a no brainer for the majority of DX shooters. Those who shoot both formats would likely invest more in FF glass for the practicality of having one set of lenses instead of two. If Pentax does make and market a FF, they would be wise to significantly improve the video capabilities of their DX line, since many DX shooters are interested in video performance. I have always viewed the lack of a successor to the D300S and the continuation of the D7000 series as a vindication of the K-7/K-5/K-3 path Pentax took. Nikon obviously saw the value in a smaller yet still high quality DX camera, while at the same time creating an upgrade path for those interested in pursuing FF i. e. their D600/D800/D4 series cameras. Given that the K-3 has been noted to have better image quality than the D610, Pentax need only introduce one solid FF body to sit between the K-3 and the 645D/Z.

10-20-2014, 11:53 PM   #617
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I think there is definitely a place for both APS-C DSLRs and FF cameras. Lenses like the DA*16-50 will still be in demand after a FF camera is announced. The problem is that a clear acknowledgement that there will be a FF Pentax will be reported everywhere, not just in this forum, and will put a large number of current and prospective buyers into "wait and see" mode. This period can't be allowed to last too long. I do think it has the potential to hit K-3 sales, because the K-3 is currently the best you can get in K-mount, and the FF will be the new top of the line.

I think Ricoh handled the 645z release quite well. I expect them to make smart decisions about the FF release too, including the timing of the announcement.
10-21-2014, 03:01 AM   #618
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
We'll have to disagree. My impression is that in this case, failing to give a clear lead has cost Pentax a very great deal. Generally, folks don't mind yes or no but they do mind indecision. There might be a reason for the indecision, but they still don't like it. There are plenty of ways of saying not right now or not for a few years without being so vague as to be meaningless. Or you can turn things around and say, as Fuji and Olympus do from what I've seen, that the entire focus right now is on APS-C or M43 and that and nothing else is what we're excited about. It gives a lead. In addition, not everything is a rumour. Those prototype lenses behind glass at Photokina, for example, were put there for some purpose but as they weren't fully labelled they just encouraged rumours (I'm not suggesting this was deliberate but looking at the result). Customers tire of rumours and highly oblique answers in interviews which they eventually perceive as indecision, move on and then you've lost them - imo.
I don't know that Ricoh/Pentax had decided for certain until recently that they were going to release a full frame camera. They as much as say that they will now. The problem for us (I guess) is that they don't say a specific date. June 2015 or whatever would become the count down. I just don't think they want to put an artificial deadline on themselves, but rather release the camera when it is ready -- even if it doesn't coincide with some big photo expo show.
10-21-2014, 03:07 AM   #619
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
Where are you getting your numbers?
I won't speak on behalf of Aristophanes but hereafter is my own rough calculation:

- estimated market for cameras with interchangeable lenses in 2014: 14 million cameras

- of which 25% are mirrorless cameras and 75% (10.5 million) DSLRs (this is the current split)

- share of 24x36 DSLRs among total DSLRs: between 5% and 10%, thus 0.5 to 1 million 24x36 DSLRs to be sold in 2014

- Pentax's potential market share: between 3% and 5%.

These estimates lead to a market for Pentax 24x36 DSLRs comprised between 15,000 and 50,000 cameras per year.

10-21-2014, 05:52 AM   #620
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
I won't speak on behalf of Aristophanes but hereafter is my own rough calculation:

- estimated market for cameras with interchangeable lenses in 2014: 14 million cameras

- of which 25% are mirrorless cameras and 75% (10.5 million) DSLRs (this is the current split)

- share of 24x36 DSLRs among total DSLRs: between 5% and 10%, thus 0.5 to 1 million 24x36 DSLRs to be sold in 2014

- Pentax's potential market share: between 3% and 5%.

These estimates lead to a market for Pentax 24x36 DSLRs comprised between 15,000 and 50,000 cameras per year.
I think the marketshare for FF is even a little bigger. Somewhere between 9-12 % I guess, but we will see those figures in januari. The biggest hump of those FF camera's will be taken by the cheaper camera's. So as long as Pentax could bring a good offer in the pricerange below D750 then there is a market.

Now on the 2015 expectation's. So I expect the market to shrink. For dslr down to 8.5 million, down about 20 %. In this shrinking market the FF share will go up. So a growth to 15 % max would be possible.

Still a smal market, but there is a market. On the optimistic side, somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 camera's. Can that fill a productionline and sell camera's at a profit?
10-21-2014, 06:34 AM   #621
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Can that fill a productionline and sell camera's at a profit?
Can they net $1,000,000 a year, out the factory door (not the retail price but the factory price) on a FF camera? 10,000 units a year at $100 a unit net = $1,000,000.

Of course one does not know how much fixed cost (assignment of P&E expense) there is / unit, variable cost (assignment of assembly workers costs) there is / unit, nor how they account R&D cost / unit, nor whether a FF camera is the BEST use of these costs.

Last edited by monochrome; 10-21-2014 at 06:39 AM.
10-21-2014, 07:25 AM   #622
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
- share of 24x36 DSLRs among total DSLRs: between 5% and 10%, thus 0.5 to 1 million 24x36 DSLRs to be sold in 2014

- Pentax's potential market share: between 3% and 5%.
These are the two numbers that really are questionable. What % of DSLR's sold in 2014 have been FF? What % in 2015? Again, some exec (I believe Sony) said that FF was the only sub-market of DSLR's that's increasing.
10-21-2014, 11:20 AM   #623
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QuoteOriginally posted by ElJamoquio Quote
These are the two numbers that really are questionable. What % of DSLR's sold in 2014 have been FF? What % in 2015? Again, some exec (I believe Sony) said that FF was the only sub-market of DSLR's that's increasing.
Hence my 5 to 10 per cent. in volume (number of units sold). 5% in volume / 10% in turnover is an estimate which was given a couple of years ago.

And I presume Sony were merely speaking about their Alpha 7/7R (mirrorless camera), not their Alpha 99 (pseudo-DSLR).

10-21-2014, 12:00 PM   #624
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Hence my 5 to 10 per cent. in volume (number of units sold). 5% in volume / 10% in turnover is an estimate which was given a couple of years ago.

And I presume Sony were merely speaking about their Alpha 7/7R (mirrorless camera), not their Alpha 99 (pseudo-DSLR).
They said 'mirrorless and full frame' if I recall correctly and I probably don't. From that statement I took it as Alpha 99 rather than Alpha 7.

But then again I might be misremembering the company from which the speaker was from, so take it with a few pounds of salt.
10-21-2014, 12:06 PM   #625
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
nor whether a FF camera is the BEST use of these costs
That cost/ benefit would need to be spread across various factories, however, since they make cameras and assemble lenses in different locations. Costing gets very complicated the wider you cast the net.

Pentax also expect to make money from selling lenses, of course. Maybe even today they make more money selling lenses than from selling camera bodies. A FF body will be the necessary platform for selling some new, good margin FF lenses. As well as perhaps encouraging more lens sales overall in all formats to both new and existing Pentax buyers, due to the FF halo effect.
10-21-2014, 12:29 PM   #626
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
That cost/ benefit would need to be spread across various factories, however, since they make cameras and assemble lenses in different locations. Costing gets very complicated the wider you cast the net.

Pentax also expect to make money from selling lenses, of course. Maybe even today they make more money selling lenses than from selling camera bodies. A FF body will be the necessary platform for selling some new, good margin FF lenses. As well as perhaps encouraging more lens sales overall in all formats to both new and existing Pentax buyers, due to the FF halo effect.
Sure, so all these 2nd-derivative effects make the decision even . . . . . . . . .simpler, right?
10-21-2014, 12:55 PM   #627
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
so all these 2nd-derivative effects make the decision even simpler, right?
Complex business decisions are often a hard call. One should econometrically model whole national or regional economies before spending a dime on any new product or investment. Technically and prudentially, it's always be the right thing to do.

Luckily for us, Ricoh don't need to do all that, since they know the market pretty well and have been making cameras for decades. They can 'fly by the seat of their pants' on FF, and they'll probably do OK.
10-21-2014, 03:33 PM   #628
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Luckily for us, Ricoh don't need to do all that, since they know the market pretty well and have been making cameras for decades. They can 'fly by the seat of their pants' on FF, and they'll probably do OK.
FWIW I am preparing myself to be an early adopter. And if it never happens then I'll have a simple, premium, 5-lens kit that will do what I want to do with a K-3.
10-22-2014, 12:34 AM   #629
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QuoteOriginally posted by osv Quote
it's hard to imagine thom hogan being open-minded; this is a guy who thinks that nikon users don't want manual focus... and he could be right.

with the d810 costing an extra $1k over the a7r, with little to no gain in p.q., sony is free to set prices where they want... mirrorless is a lot cheaper to produce than dslrs.

when canikon/pentax step into the 21st century, and start producing ff mirrorless/evf cameras, we'll see the prices for ff drop quite a bit.

so the ff vs. crop sensor market share differences could be radically different in five years, because everyone is back to selling the same thing.
Also when is Sony going to step in as being a serious lens maker and provide finally something usefull on their A7 line?

There only a few lenses with slow apperture, still they remain big essentially... Because of mirorless. Last time I checked photozone review of transtandard Sony for A7r, the review concluded with a 2.5/5 overall score, bad border performance (>2EV vigneting and big decrease in sharpness) and more importantly with very bad bokeh. And they give it the Zeiss name.

When you just look at the body spec Sony A7 familly look good and cheap. When you look at the lenses specs they look expensive and quite big with slow apperture. While the shorter registration distance give a clear adventage to APSC where the mount where designed with FF in mind and help a lot on wide angle, there is no such thing on FF. FF reflex have a good registration distance. Mirorless FF have a short registration distance that make the design of lenses more complex and also make them longer.

I don't make photos with prototype for the next century, I make photo with real camera that need to be practical, have a good offering of lenses and if possible that is lightweight. As of now Pentax FF offering is better with the 3 FA ltd than Sony with their mirorless lenses. As of now sony try to be in the compact segment with it's A7 familly but doesn't manage to be really smaller if you have 2-3 lenses with you than any APSC body and they also fail to provide better high iso performance or better dof control. I mean, the large apperture are just not there. Somebody with an f/2.8 zoom on APSC will be on par with A7 on its f/4 lense. Well maybe the bokeh will be better on the APSC lense that may also be cheaper.

The best to do on an A7 is to mount it with some nice lenses from other manufacturers with an adaptor. That kind of strange.
10-22-2014, 03:18 AM   #630
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
... As of now Pentax FF offering is better with the 3 FA ltd than Sony with their mirorless lenses. As of now sony try to be in the compact segment with it's A7 familly but doesn't manage to be really smaller if you have 2-3 lenses with you than any APSC body and they also fail to provide better high iso performance or better dof control. I mean, the large apperture are just not there. Somebody with an f/2.8 zoom on APSC will be on par with A7 on its f/4 lense. Well maybe the bokeh will be better on the APSC lense that may also be cheaper.

The best to do on an A7 is to mount it with some nice lenses from other manufacturers with an adaptor. That kind of strange.
As of now, there is no Pentax FF, at least on digital which is what actually matters for the future of Ricoh. Don't you think this might have some bearing on things? Look around sites like fredmiranda and you will see some absolutely superb images taken with the A7 family, as good as any shown anywhere. While that is down to great skill behind the camera, it also means that when used well the A7 family can produce top results. Sure, these cameras aren't perfect and in fact have some oft-remarked blemishes, but then what is perfect. However, they are out there right now and have been for a while too. You can buy one today and, another important point, for considerably less than a similar camera from Nikon, say. For many folks, affordable FF + adapter = bliss, whereas eye-watering sticker price FF + lens lock-in = purgatory. Your other points - that APS-C can beat FF with regard to ISO, DOF, bokeh, etc. - are a little wide of the mark? Plenty of reasons for preferring one over the other, but there is really no absolute bar to set things against. A good photographer would get a stunning shot out of either.

Bear in mind that almost no one has $$$ lying around to spend on camera equipment (except on the internet where no one knows you aren't a billionaire ). The Sony approach has given many people an opportunity the old camera companies would never have allowed them. We should welcome such disruption even if the items aren't what we'd choose for ourselves. Here's an example: where I live, quite a lot of folks now buy camera equipment direct from Hong Kong using one of the many companies which offer this service, like DigitalRev (the company deals with warranties and repairs). Were I to do that, I could buy a Sony A7 for less than the price of a K3 in a regular store here and a Sony A7r for not much more. Things like this must be causing a few cold sweats among the old-school camera mafia in Tokyo because there is really no prospect of stopping it. The traditional camera business is being eaten away by all sorts of pressures.

Last edited by mecrox; 10-22-2014 at 08:17 AM.
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