[IchabodCrane]

Factories sell to Dealers. The entire planned production through late December was reportedly ordered by Dealers during the pre-order period.

Reportedly, if a real human wants to buy a 645Z there is a wait at most dealers as backorders are filled and your new (back)order moves up the list.

But you knew that.

It all adds up to an entire year's production not really being sold out, just that dealers had ordered that amount to have on hand. How many units real people buy is the key question which will drive whether dealers order any more (which Ricoh needs in the bigger picture).

[JimmyDranox]

That would be confusing as H*ll.
Besides, a "SD" coating? They just introduced HD, then there's ABC which is even better, but not suitable for the external surfaces. How many coatings should they have?
No, it won't work if it's "Standard Definition" i.e. a lesser coating either, why put that on a 70-"300" f/2.8 when even the 55-300 is now HD?

It makes no sense. Then, there is the 70-"300", and we know it's not that.

Something else is wrong with those designations. No indication for the motor. SDM, or DC. Maybe SD is ''silent drive''. But who knows. Maybe the presenter forget it, as he confuse the focal length, maybe his source.

[monochrome]

If so, it means the 645Z is more successful among dealers (one year of production sold in advance) than among end-customers (4-week backorder)

OK. Except has anyone yet ordered one but said, "DON"T SHIP IT UNTIL DECENBER,"?

It all adds up to an entire year's production not really being sold out, just that dealers had ordered that amount to have on hand. How many units real people buy is the key question which will drive whether dealers order any more (which Ricoh needs in the bigger picture).

Yep. Which is why the (product manager?) interviewed seemed so pleased that there is still a 3-4 week wait at retail. Clearly, dealers aren't canceling those out-month orders.

What am I missing here? I mean, sure, I haven't sold as a Manufacturer's Rep since 1982, but in the old days when I was a 23-year-old with one distributor account, if in August I sold 800,000 pounds of product, deliverable 160,000 pounds a week for 5 weeks I was a hero. They didn't say, "Talk to us at the end of December when the last truck pulls away from the customer dock". They didn't say, "Talk to us in January when your customer has sold all that stock through and reorders". They just said - hey - nice job!*

What does Ricoh have to do to get people around here to say, "hey!! Nice job!!"?



* And I once did go to the end customer and coupon my way out of a full warehouse slot - hard way to learn a lesson.

[aoeu]

Three suggestions at once is not the same as three new lenses.

Pentax is not Doomed . . . yet.

[JimmyDranox]

On yesterday front page article, there are two points that are stressed.

One is that there is nowhere said that the FF will come at CP+, as some people are expecting. And I totally agree with this. I think that this camera will come next year, but no way I can't tell when exactly. And I really believe that will not be at a big exhibition, like CP+.

Second point, is that this new lenses are not an indication that a FF will come, even more, that they are prototypes, and their shape can change. More, maybe their body is taken from some 645 lenses.

About this, I have some questions. Why this lenses was presented? Why was presented without any designation? AFAIK, there is no 645 lens resembling those lenses, and the degree of detail, especially inside (as much I can see through the frontal element), looks more like real functional prototypes, than some simple mock-ups. In my mind, the answer is simple. Those are FF lenses, and Ricoh want to send a sign that this camera is coming, without making a clear statement. But maybe I'm wrong.

[Mistral75]

(...)

About this, I have some questions. Why this lenses was presented? Why was presented without any designation? AFAIK, there is no 645 lens resembling those lenses, and the degree of detail, especially inside (as much I can see through the frontal element), looks more like real functional prototypes, than some simple mock-ups. In my mind, the answer is simple. Those are FF lenses, and Ricoh want to send a sign that this camera is coming, without making a clear statement. But maybe I'm wrong.

Actually, Pentax are disseminating signs like Hop-o'-My-Thumb did small white pebbles:

- the Star Tele Zoom appearing on the February 2014 roadmap without DA being mentioned
- the DA Tele Zoom becoming Tele Zoom on the latest roadmap
- both lenses being shown as prototypes / mock-ups without any designation.

[GlassJunkie]

Actually, Pentax are disseminating signs like Hop-o'-My-Thumb did small white pebbles:

- the Star Tele Zoom appearing on the February 2014 roadmap without DA being mentioned
- the DA Tele Zoom becoming Tele Zoom on the latest roadmap
- both lenses being shown as prototypes / mock-ups without any designation.

They don't want to devote a yard of resources to answering nonsense questions from the "Pentaxian" ecosystem on what the FF will be...

Good for them. Stick to the important stuff like product development... Who cares what it is? Can't do anything about it anyway, since it doesn't exist yet and no one can buy one....FF yup, K mount of course, Crappy camera? Stupid question, of course not, it is Pentax... They don't want to answer questions like DSLR? MILC? New style like 645z? Doesn't matter, it will be a great camera.

On a MILC, should they call it Flatax since there is no penta-prism? Who cares if you can hook it up to a coffee maker.

Anybody want to swap tips on how to take better pictures? Maybe this energy would be better spent looking to improve the "carbon based processors running wetware" that provide significant error frequencies to quality output"

[Kunzite]

Actually they said several times it will be a DSLR.
I guess it's pointless to answer questions

[GlassJunkie]

Actually they said several times it will be a DSLR.
I guess it's pointless to answer questions

Senior hearing moment...

[JimmyDranox]

I like logic. A clear relation between facts. Even more I like curiosity. And it's pointless to explain why.

[MarkJerling]

Be of Good Cheer, Pentaxians! Ricoh has a Plan, and you will be Happy!*


* It has been a while, hasn't it?

It's clear that Ricoh are spending on new product development. We might come to like the new Pentax owners!

[Nicolas06]

According to a recent CNET article, only 0.12% of professional photographers use medium format now. I don't see how any of your listed achievements can be realized considering the market is so microscopic.

Ok, FF is 10%, Pentax can get 10% of that 10% and so have 1% after a few years when all the lenses are here. Now they would only have maybe 0.2% 0.3% total for the first years for their FF.

They would make maybe 500$/unit. Next year profit estimation (bases on 40 millions total market units) is $60 millions. Let say fixed cost is 100 millions, so they need 2 years of that. If they sell less than foreseen, this is a net loss.

Now the MF, they can take half of the market easily (0.06%) and make the market grow. You can imagine to buy a 645Z + lenses system for 10000-20000$, that something many can think of... While going into 30000-100000$ market of other is too expensive to many, so you can expect to get more shooter going for the 645Z, that may give them 0.1% overall market share.

But now they make 5000$ per unit instead of 500$ and tend to sell 5000$ of lenses for the system in the next years with $3000 of profit. This mean 320 millions of profit.

This give us more than 5 time the money with far less risk and secure their market. This also give them the money needed to invest seriously in the other segments.

If they are not sucessfull, they may sell 1/3 of that and make a good 100 million profit. Reduce maybe 50 millions fixed cost and you still make a good 50 million final profit.

Of course the number are made up, but this is just to explain that when you think of things, all play part... Market size is one factor that is heavily compound by the money you can make on each unit, the part of the market you can expect to take and even your capacity to grow the market.

645Z has the capacity to get most of the new MF sales, generate lot of money per sale and also grow the market by targetting a different price segment.

[woodywesty]

It's clear that Ricoh are spending on new product development. We might come to like the new Pentax owners!

Slow down... lets not get crazy here...

[jatrax]

Slow down... lets not get crazy here...

Yeah, we don't want any positive posts on this forum. What would people think? /SARC

[monochrome]

Yeah, we don't want any positive posts on this forum. What would people think? /SARC

Definitely don't want to be ahead of the curve making positive comments.