[IchabodCrane]

Yeah, we don't want any positive posts on this forum. What would people think? /SARC

Positive posts are great. Making up stuff that sounds good isn't.

[MarkJerling]

Yeah, we don't want any positive posts on this forum. What would people think? /SARC

[Kunzite]

Positive posts are great. Making up stuff that sounds good isn't.

Are you accusing MarkJerling of "making up stuff"? If so, please be specific and bring proof.

[IchabodCrane]

Are you accusing MarkJerling of "making up stuff"? If so, please be specific and bring proof.

No, not MarkJerling. My turn: Can you bring proof that Nicolas06's figures are correct... or just made up?

[Kunzite]

Why should I even attempt to prove Nikolas06's figures? First, I'm not him so I'm under no such obligation, second, they're made up to prove a point:

Of course the number are made up, but this is just to explain that when you think of things, all play part... Market size is one factor that is heavily compound by the money you can make on each unit, the part of the market you can expect to take and even your capacity to grow the market.

P.S. You quoted a post which quoted a post which quoted an inoffensive (except for being positive) post of MarkJerling, that's why I wondered - knowing you're a level-headed poster - what on Earth would you have against that.

[IchabodCrane]

Why should I even attempt to prove Nikolas06's figures? First, I'm not him so I'm under no such obligation, second, they're made up to prove a point:


P.S. You quoted a post which quoted a post which quoted an inoffensive (except for being positive) post of MarkJerling, that's why I wondered - knowing you're a level-headed poster - what on Earth would you have against that.

Yes, they were made up to prove a point. The problem is you can't just make things up and expect to prove a point from it. That's what I was referring to.

[Kunzite]

That depends on the point being made
He's basically saying that one shouldn't just look at the 0.12%, and I agree with that.

[monochrome]

It's ALL speculative anyway unless the poster happens to be a Ricoh insider who has seen product development plans and market studies.

Sometime before the end of next summer we'll know, once and for all, where Ricoh is going. Then we'll see the results after another year. Anything written between now and then has entertainment value but little else.

[Nicolas06]

It's ALL speculative anyway unless the poster happens to be a Ricoh insider who has seen product development plans and market studies.

Sometime before the end of next summer we'll know, once and for all, where Ricoh is going. Then we'll see the results after another year. Anything written between now and then has entertainment value but little else.

No, even if you are a Ricoh insider the number are made up by definition !

That one of the first things you learn in business: projections numbers are made up, everybody know that fact and you use them to convince your boss/client to invest on your idea. They know they are made up, so you have to convince them their are not that too optimistic and that it is reality. The rule of dumb is you multiply by 2 at least your expected revenue and the client/boss divide it at least by 2 ! If you are not overoptimistic, nobody will want to invest on you: why invest on an idea with no supporters?

Who know how much of FF market share Pentax can take in 5 years? Who know how MF market will evolve? Who know what is the next big thing in photography? It depend of so many factors and there so many possible strategies that you can have all kind of scenario from Pentax taking 50% of overall market to Pentax going bankrupt. And this happen all the time, well established companies go bankrupt while outsiders or startups take over the world (apple, google, ms have taken the world, Nokia, Research in Motion, 3dFx have or are being eaten). Pentax is so small and has so many problem now BECAUSE it did and invested in FF too early and that was a big failure. If that would have been a success, maybe today everybody would use Pentax and not Canikon...

So here the discussion we have is exactly the internal discussions at Ricoh and Pentax. you try to convince with your numbers, predictions and strategies. Of course their strategy is far more refined and there far more numbers, studies and so own to back up, but in practice it doesn't prevent that most of time your predictions are wrong, most new products ideas are failures, but also sometime some product ideas give are instant, huge success... And when this happen, the success is often for reasons you didn't think of in the first place.

The real difference is that what we do is like what many do in sport. They criticize what the strategy, the players and so own, but they have no influence at all. That we trust going MF again with 645Z was a better idea than going FF, nobody now. At best we start to know that the MF idea is sucessfull, that many are impressed by 645Z and are buying it. The FF idea by definition is still an idea so can still fail. So at least Ricoh made a good move with 645Z... The whole point one can have is that Ricoh could possibly have made an even better move with going FF first. This is difficult sell as again MF and 645Z is a success story.

[monochrome]

No, even if you are a Ricoh insider the number are made up by definition !

Well, yes, sure - but if you are a Ricoh insider you have information about available production resources, component supplier versus self-made choices, level of capital available from the parent company (and cost thereof), contract agreements with regional distributors and P&L projections for Regional divisions - all kinds of cost and production information that we don't have.

When playing Texas Hold 'Em, it helps to know what cards are in your own hand - when watching a table full of Texas Hold 'Em players, everything looks like a bluff. Calling winner before the Showdown is just speculation.

[RobG]

Is there any word on when the new lenses might be brought to market?

[Doundounba]

Is there any word on when the new lenses might be brought to market?

I believe, as per the roadmap, the latest word is "2014 or later". Kind of pretty similar to no word at all, really...

[monochrome]

Is there any word on when the new lenses might be brought to market?

Some wag on another Forum said, "The same day as the FullFrame comes to market."

[RobG]

I believe, as per the roadmap, the latest word is "2014 or later". Kind of pretty similar to no word at all, really...

OK, I've seen the roadmap. I was just wondering if anyone had asked Pentax (oops, Ricoh) the question, or whether any clearer suggestion of delivery might have been made when the prototypes were displayed at Photokina.

Some wag on another Forum said, "The same day as the FullFrame comes to market."

Except that we've seen prototypes of the lenses, while there's no sign of a FF prototype. Personally I could care less about a Full Frame body. I already have a camera which produces great images, and the crop sensor gives me an advantage in effective focal length which I don't want to give up.

[Kunzite]

Well, the prototypes leave room for speculation (and they won't clearly say they're FF lenses, just hint about it); while a camera would be too obvious