[Mikesul]

A good quote I came across from the head of a very successful company said you need four things to be a good exporter (which all the camera companies are): efficient production systems, quality, innovation and brand awareness. Without those you have nothing to sell on but price and that is a mug's game.

How many of those do Ricoh have where you live?

The K3 looks as if it will make a fine next camera for me at a good price now too, but without investment in a mirrorless line to take over from the old K mount and more brand awareness through marketing, it's quite hard to see there will be a next time with Ricoh in three years or so, at least on APS-C. The DSLR on that format is looking very much like toast. Sales are declining and all the forecasts are for the decline to continue. Mirrorless looks to have pretty well won there already. Time for Rioch to move to something else or give up the format perhaps? There's nothing unusual or apocalyptic about this: it is simply called change. Time have changed, so out with the old and in with the new.

Ricoh executives are surely taking all of this into account. The question is whether they will be able to find a way to make the necessary changes, stay profitable and keep existing users. A hard, but probably doable task. We should see in a month or so.

[monochrome]

The reality is that if I wait six months and get a body for 300 dollars cheaper, there is no way to get that six months of shooting back.

Time is the only truly wasting resource.

Sales are declining and all the forecasts are for the decline to continue. Mirrorless looks to have pretty well won there already.

How many APSc dSLR's have been sold in the prior twelve months? How many FF dSLR's have been sold in the prior twelve months? How many APSc MILC cameras have been sold in the prior twelve months? How many FF MILC cameras have been sold in the prior twelve months?

Compare volumes of each to a smoothed curve over the past decade, taking into account the massive uptake of dSLR's since 2006 by first-time buyers. I'd imagine a fairly small percentage of those first-time buyers have bought a second ILC of any type.

[Mistral75]

Time is the only truly wasting resource.

How many APSc dSLR's have been sold in the prior twelve months? How many FF dSLR's have been sold in the prior twelve months? How many APSc MILC cameras have been sold in the prior twelve months? How many FF MILC cameras have been sold in the prior twelve months?

Compare volumes of each to a smoothed curve over the past decade, taking into account the massive uptake of dSLR's since 2006 by first-time buyers. I'd imagine a fairly small percentage of those first-time buyers have bought a second ILC of any type.

Source: CIPA - Camera & Imaging Products Association

[Mikesul]

Source: CIPA - Camera & Imaging Products Association

Pentax is clearly going to add or go mirrorless. Afterall, they were early adopters with the Q and K-01. Now they can do it with the big camera -can't call it a DSLR anymore

[derekkite]

So mirrorless increase made up about half the decrease in DSLR's, and built-in lens cameras sold 2.5 times mirrorless.

Arguably this last year had mirrorless offerings that matched the basic functionality of DSLR's in common shooting situations, and the capable ones were not inexpensive but medium end offerings. A nicely appointed DSLR has been available for about half or more than an equivalent mirrorless. Will that change next year? I suspect so, but the pressures on DSLR's and built-in lens units is also on mirrorless; the vast majority of people can take the shots they want with the phone in their pocket.

So I would see something a bit different. The low end DSLR's will disappear. If you pick up a low end Canon or Nikon with kit lenses and kit zoom, it takes up a better part of a grand, and the IQ quality is pretty dodgy. I see that market vanishing as soon as someone can make a mirrorless that matches the capabilities of these low end bodies, or simply disappearing. The competition isn't that outrageously good. When you get into the higher price ranges, above $1K for a body, the photographers will have specific requirements, and DSLR's will still have a market. The specific areas where mirrorless means a compromise will remain, where the technology required to match the basic functionality of an OVF is expensive and difficult.

If I were Ricoh, I would do a few things; make sure the lower end offerings and kit lenses are very good. I've used the 55-300 and the IQ is nice, the price is low. I used a canon equivalent and I couldn't believe how bad it was. The K-50 and KS-1 are nice bodies for a reasonable price. They may find that cheaper than that are hard to make a value proposition. They may end up in that market section being one of the few DSLR's available.
Maintain the value proposition of the DSLR line in the higher priced market. I think Nikon did something extremely foolish when they crippled the D7100. A great body with nice IQ, although there are some banding issues in certain circumstances, but the buffer. It is almost like they don't see the shrinkage in the market. The K3 has a great value proposition and redefines the midrange aps-c. The next iteration will need to be that much better, there is no room for crippling.
As for FF, define a value proposition of a very nicely appointed body, fast great IQ, full featured at a price point that matches the less well appointed competition. Release a FF mirrorless equivalent to their FF DSLR but exploiting the advantages of mirrorless. I see the market segmenting where certain technologies excel in certain shooting circumstances; I carry two bodies often, one with a long lens, and a shorter lens, 43mm or 35mm or 100mm macro. One technology may work extremely well with one set of lenses and subjects, and visa versa. So sell two bodies.
I'd also push the medium format. There is something special to the results people get. The 645z is attractive to many people who won't buy one due to price. That is a problem to solve.

I am surprised in today's economy how much of what I want to buy is not available. In my work, devices that have worked well for a long time are becoming unavailable, forcing me into more expensive and less reliable alternatives. No one in North America sells a vehicle that I want to buy for my business. If I wanted an aps-c, well appointed with no compromises, Ricoh sells me one where others don't. It seems that they are seeking out those holes and filling them very nicely.

[bobmaxja]

PS These # are shipments not sale.

[rawr]

PS These # are shipments not sale.

Good point.
They could all be piled up in warehouses somewhere, and then dumped on the cheap via auction sites or grey resellers. Or simply tipped into land-fills. Return rates also need to be taken into account, especially in the USA.

[Uluru]

Mirrorless systems are rising because they are substitutes for P&S mirrorless which have gone off the market.
Since P&S mirrorless are now gone — and interestingly, no one talks about how mirrorless sales have radically declined in the last few years in fact — system mirrorless are substituting it. And at a very slow pace.

So mirrorless cameras are in fact biggest losers in the whole game.

Ricoh really does not care, because they have the Q system. However, the sales of DSLR will stabilise in a year of two anyway because in the year or two we shall see an all new breed of hi-end fixed lens mirrorless cameras, that will substitute even some mirrorless systems (not only entry DSLR).

So I would not call DSLR declining in interest, as much as refining. Mirrorless is the same: not quite rising (considering how suddenly sales of mirrorless cameras dropped after the smartphone revolution), but again, refining. Everything is in search for its equilibrium.

[MarkJerling]

You really don't get it. I want Ricoh to be very successful. I would like to see the Pentax brand return to what it once was. A few years ago I asked my local pro shop why they didn't carry Pentax. The short answer is because nobody asks for it. Last year i saw they started carrying the Fuji X-mount line..... because people were coming in asking for it. I asked him about the Sony A7 line and he said he had tried to carry it, but Sony has some pretty steep volume requirements and he just can't do it. Still no Pentax though..... Nobody ever asks for it. Why? Is it because Ricoh makes inferior products? Obviously not. Nobody asks for it because Ricoh don't invest in marketing. None of this is me complaining. Its simply the way things are.


Don't really care. I'm expressing an opinion and whether or not Ricoh is listening is of no concern.


There is a board for that farther down the page. This board however is not the place for that.

You are, 100% correct. Better marketing, an sales will soar, I'm sure of it. Or is it, that they just don't advertise in our markets?

[mecrox]

Good point.
They could all be piled up in warehouses somewhere, and then dumped on the cheap via auction sites or grey resellers. Or simply tipped into land-fills. Return rates also need to be taken into account, especially in the USA.

That applies to all kinds of camera, not just to DSLRs or to MILCs alone.

Samsung + Sony are flavours of the moment and no doubt the flavours will lose their appeal eventually, but their approach does point to where everyone is likely to go. So far, what we've mostly had from the camera-makers are old analogue assumptions with a digital back-end attached. The next stage is moving beyond modest processing power, basic software, not connected, no apps, no information overlays in the case of OVFs, and long-register mounts with moving parts (K mount aperture lever) rather than all electronic and shorter register. That's the direction I'd like Ricoh to go. How they go there is up in the air, since there is more than one way of doing it. Still, I doubt anyone really thinks that the K-S1 for example, good though it may be today, is much of a template for 2-3 years' time compared to what other companies are likely to produce. I'm not picking on Pentax here; the same is true of the low-end plastic fantastickery from Canonikon. My guess is that all this is now changing. Just a guess, my 2 cents.

[Winder]

Samsung + Sony are flavours of the moment and no doubt the flavours will lose their appeal eventually, but their approach does point to where everyone is likely to go. So far, what we've mostly had from the camera-makers are old analogue assumptions with a digital back-end attached. The next stage is moving beyond modest processing power, basic software, not connected, no apps, no information overlays in the case of OVFs, and long-register mounts with moving parts (K mount aperture lever) rather than all electronic and shorter register. That's the direction I'd like Ricoh to go

Sony has been able to remain flavors of the moment by constantly putting new products and technology on the market. Can they maintain this pace? I think they need to for the next 5 years at least. Sony will need 5 years to fill out the product line up. The new Sony Bionz X processor is 3x faster than the last version. The new Samsung NX-1 is using a 5 core ARM processor. Dedicated imaging processors are probably on the way out and more powerful multi-core processors are here. I think in the VERY near future you will be able to install a version of DxO Film pack, VSCO Film, or similar software directly to you camera. Fuji is already doing it on a small scale with its own film modes. Maybe you setup your own presets in Lightroom and then import those presets into your camera and shoot. The camera then records a RAW file + your personal preset JPEG. Have a favorite Silver Efex preset? It would not surprise me to see Sony buy a company like DxO and integrate its RAW processor directly into the camera with film presets. Upload it to your camera and go shoot. With 4K and higher resolution displays we might see support for 12-bit JPEG or higher OOC.

Once the refresh rates, color depth, DR, & resolution of the EVF exceed what they human eye can perceive then the OVF will be all but dead. The mirror box is simply dead space at that point.

I really wish Ricoh would come out with a FF version of the Fuji X-T1 with a Pentax LX style (but with a better grip). New FF mirrorless mount. Blend the Sony A7, Fuji X-T1 with a Pentax LX and give me a new 50mm F/1.2 lens (improved A 50mm F/1.2) and then redesign the 31mm and the 77mm for the mirrorless mount. Launch with those three lenses and Ricoh will have a huge success on its hands. Design a 24mm and redesign the 100mm WR macro for the new mount. Leave the monster lenses like the 70-200 F/2.8 for the K-mount DSLR crowd.

[Kunzite]

Not all problems can be solved just by throwing money at them; Samsung succeeding is not a given. The NX1 is an impressive product, but it's their first impressive product - it's way too early to call Pentax beaten, even for this forum

I know many would like our cameras to be connected, and by that I mean mobile carriers & network providers, camera makers (happy to see us changing cameras yearly or so, and to sell/rent us apps), software (incl. antivirus) makers, governments and the NSA... I'm already way too "connected" for my taste, and I can't help thinking of the downsides. Indeed, we might be transitioning from photographic tools towards disposable (as in: planned obsolescence) gadgets.
But I'm fine with Pentax making photographic tools.

[reh321]

Not all problems can be solved just by throwing money at them; Samsung succeeding is not a given. The NX1 is an impressive product, but it's their first impressive product - it's way too early to call Pentax beaten, even for this forum

Even more questionable is the position of Sony. I keep reading in the business press that Sony is having serious financial issues. At some point their MILC line will have to contribute serious cash-flow to the company

I know many would like our cameras to be connected, and by that I mean mobile carriers & network providers, camera makers (happy to see us changing cameras yearly or so, and to sell/rent us apps), software (incl. antivirus) makers, governments and the NSA... I'm already way too "connected" for my taste, and I can't help thinking of the downsides. Indeed, we might be transitioning from photographic tools towards disposable (as in: planned obsolescence) gadgets.
But I'm fine with Pentax making photographic tools.

Yes!! I have a cable attached to my computer to move pictures from my camera. I have a memory reader. I don't need to make it easy for someone to take my pictures or infect my camera with some kind of virus.

[Winder]

Even more questionable is the position of Sony. I keep reading in the business press that Sony is having serious financial issues. At some point their MILC line will have to contribute serious cash-flow to the company

Yes!! I have a cable attached to my computer to move pictures from my camera. I have a memory reader. I don't need to make it easy for someone to take my pictures or infect my camera with some kind of virus.

Sony is a huge company. Its mobile phone, computer, & TV divisions have been getting killed the last few years. The sensor fabrication side of the business has been very profitable. The A7 line has been selling better than the A99. This year at Photokina Sony didn't even have an Alpha mount camera on display and the expected Alpha mount lenses have been moved back since all resources are now committed to the A7 line which is sell very well. MILC are already contributing to the cash flow. The losses have come from the P&S side of the business and the rather poor performance of the A-xx SLT line.

[lukulele]

Sony is a huge company. Its mobile phone, computer, & TV divisions have been getting killed the last few years. The sensor fabrication side of the business has been very profitable. The A7 line has been selling better than the A99. This year at Photokina Sony didn't even have an Alpha mount camera on display and the expected Alpha mount lenses have been moved back since all resources are now committed to the A7 line which is sell very well. MILC are already contributing to the cash flow. The losses have come from the P&S side of the business and the rather poor performance of the A-xx SLT line.

Lost in all of this speculative rancor; does the retailer make any money and what are the hoops the dealer has to deal with the importer/manufacturer/ distributor to insure a viable delivery of quality product, the return policy, and hundreds of other issues a dealer deals with? I spoke to a dealer recently who moaned vociferously about the "payment" of rebates by one of the big two and the mass of paper work, yet he has to carry this brand. If Ricoh was serious about dealers making a decent dealer margin here a few months ago and turning product, there might be an opening or even an open ear.