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12-31-2014, 08:48 AM   #91
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
It could not make Pentax more profitable.

First, FF sensors and supporting circuitry push the prices above Pentax's comfort zone. Well above it when you look at the big zooms necessary to support FF.

Second, Pentax would have to start at least 2 more production lines just for optics to support FF.

This would need to happen with a K-mount DSLR or with a new mount MILC. New investment requires new customers. So either Pentax has to overcome the price issue and grow the market with those new to photography (saturated) or take from competitors (need lots of glass to do that).

One FF sensors normalize into the $1,000/body range then things look different as there can be a transition.

It's not really about legacy mount vs. new mount, mirrorless vs. DSLR. It's about the # o customers at a given price point, followed by the # of distinct lines of modes/mounts Pentax can support. They are at 3 now (K, Q, 645) and at one point had 4 if you count the Ricoh GXR.

Ricoh's GR/GXR investments are the gateway to mirrorless.
Agreed. I'm certain that there have been many many presentations in Pentax/Ricoh on full frame, with a whole story about how to do it, budgeted and applied tech. Someone asks when does it become profitable? They say something like 5 years. Someone asks what the photography business will look like in 5 years. Silence. Then someone asks whether there wouldn't be more return in maintaining the aps-c line, the 645 line, and it's been a while since the GR was updated. Meeting ends.

There are two ways to go about it profitably. Home run releases that capture attention and sales, sell out a production run. Or servicing a market that spends money year after year. In my acquaintance people are spending money on superzooms; affordable and they have loads of fun with them. Aps-c wildlife shooters who spend money because the limits of what they have means they don't even bother taking the shot. I know of a few wildlife shooters who bought full frame frustrated with the noise limitations of aps-c bodies, but were not enthused. I know even more who have the latest aps-c offering, plus a collection of expensive lenses. I know of a few who bought full frame for landscape, but I never see them out shooting, or rarely do.

A huge investment of money, production capacity and engineering resources in a full frame system that may or may not be profitable would starve the lines that are. Unless sensor prices put them in the sweet spot of sales numbers to make them worthwhile.

12-31-2014, 08:56 AM - 1 Like   #92
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7 pages of a discussion, on an article that's almost a year old...people speculating on the nuances, of a google translation, the only guy who can translate stuff, posts a few improved translations that show just how much people aren't getting it right, but no one cares, the discussion goes right on un-impeded, as usual some really stunning comments from the Ricoh people, that people just ignore...

This is sick..... get some perspective.....
I'm going with "we have a secret plan". That is the only thing in the whole interview that's new.... and I'm content knowing, if they never execute the "secret plan" then we'll never know what it was. And if they tell someone what their "secret plan " is , it won't be secret anymore will it? And there is absolutely no need for me to know until it's put into production, because the reason for having a secret plan, is to get the jump on the competition on a new feature.

Let it go.

Last edited by normhead; 12-31-2014 at 09:02 AM.
12-31-2014, 10:38 AM   #93
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Did someone really knows the situation inside Ricoh? How much they can spend on R&D? How many cameras and lenses are selling, and what is their profit from it? And so on.

I see a lot of personal opinions expressed not as such, but as real truth, in full knowledge of Ricoh insides. This will be profitable, this will not. Ricoh will do this and will not do that. Your sure?

If Ricoh will launch a FF in two month from now, I want to see what those all knowing people who are saying now that this will never gonna happens, because...., what they gonna say then.

Of course, everybody has an opinion, and has the right to expose it, but lets present it like what they are, simple opinions.

Last edited by JimmyDranox; 12-31-2014 at 10:56 AM.
12-31-2014, 12:01 PM   #94
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
So what if Fuji and Oly are not FF-capable?
Because their systems are not FF compatible, people really don't expect them to launch a new FF system. With Pentax, K-mount is a FF mount and there will always be an expectation that there will be a FF k-mount body because of this.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Clearly their brain trusts (and Pentax Ricoh so far) look at their consumer base and know that the sub-$1,500 price point = almost all the revenues. And that's a kit. That is where the consumers are regardless of legacy mount issues. No system can really get there at FF sensor prices.
Sure they can. The A7 is still selling for $1,200 and if Nikon can make a FF 50mm F/1.8 lens for $200 then so can Sony. FF CMOS sensors are only going to get cheaper. I paid almost $3,000 for my Canon 5D when it was new. I paid 1/2 that for the Sony 7Dm2 and the Sony is easily twice as good in every way. In couple of years we might have entry level FF MILCs selling for $999.00. The reality is that these cameras don't cost a whole lot to make anymore. Sensor prices have fallen by 50% in just the last 5 years.

QuoteOriginally posted by WPRESTO Quote
What Pentax owner-user will purchase any body that obsoletes their entire lens collection?
There are not enough Pentax users to worry about. Zeiss and Voight have stopped worrying about them and stopped making K-mount glass. Most 3rd party suppliers stopped worrying about Pentax users a long time ago. My 31mm LTD work fine on my A7m2. It would be nice to have an adapter with contacts to support some automatic functions, but that wouldn't be a big deal to implement. You can buy Canon EF to FE adapter that support AF.

QuoteOriginally posted by totsmuyco Quote
As for the stats if it was better for Olympus, I wouldn't know.
Olympus has more market share with M4/3 than it ever did with 4/3. I was an E-3 shooter for a couple of years. In the long run, Olympus did the right thing.

QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
You argue that Pentax needs FF because the K-mount is engineered that way, but then point to the success of Sony who have created/ignored mounts like crazy lately.
I said that because K-mount is a FF mount, people will always have the expectation and Pentax/Ricoh is always going to have to deal with that. That has nothing to do with what I think Pentax/Ricoh need to do. I think in the long run expanding into a contracting market is a bad idea. I think they need a FF but not a DSLR. Would it be good for me if they produced a FF DSLR in K-mount? Sure. It would save me some money, but what I want them to do for the sake of my personal finances and what I think they should do for the long run viability of the company are not necessarily the same thing.

There are a lot of glass collectors on this forum who think Ricoh/Pentax should do what is best for the small user base. I think they need to try to appeal to the larger audience. By the time Ricoh expands it lens and improves its technology enough to really rival Canon and Nikon, DSLR sales will probably be a much, much smaller market than it is today. I think DSLRs have peaked as a market and while they will never disappear (you can still buy manual typewriters) the market will not be big enough for Canon, Nikon, & Ricoh.

12-31-2014, 12:53 PM   #95
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Have you ever tried to get into an exclusive club?

I was just reading the first review of the original Q on The Online Photographer (don't ask how Google started me at Gameseeker Red Dot Finder and took me to TOP) and Mike Johnston put the mystery of Pentax in a delicious perspective for we westerners. The Q isn't for us, it's for Japan. They'll sell us one if we want it as it is - but they aren't changing it just for us.

As he said, we're invited to the party but we're not the Maid of Honor.

I'll bet they view these FF questions like the Membership Committee views the anxious golfer waiting to hear when his bid will be returned.

"We're considering it - but not yet."
"Your application is out for the vote - but not yet."
"We're having a secret meeting just for you - but not yet."

I wonder if Jim Malcolm ever wishes he had stayed with Sony.
12-31-2014, 01:06 PM   #96
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I was just reading the first review of the original Q on The Online Photographer (don't ask how Google started me at Gameseeker Red Dot Finder and took me to TOP) and Mike Johnston put the mystery of Pentax in a delicious perspective for we westerners. The Q isn't for us, it's for Japan. They'll sell us one if we want it as it is - but they aren't changing it just for us.

As he said, we're invited to the party but we're not the Maid of Honor.

I'll bet they view these FF questions like the Membership Committee views the anxious golfer waiting to hear when his bid will be returned.

"We're considering it - but not yet."
"Your application is out for the vote - but not yet."
"We're having a secret meeting just for you - but not yet."

I wonder if Jim Malcolm ever wishes he had stayed with Sony.
Yes, daily and twice an hour during CP+.
12-31-2014, 02:15 PM   #97
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
There are a lot of glass collectors on this forum who think Ricoh/Pentax should do what is best for the small user base. I think they need to try to appeal to the larger audience. By the time Ricoh expands it lens and improves its technology enough to really rival Canon and Nikon, DSLR sales will probably be a much, much smaller market than it is today. I think DSLRs have peaked as a market and while they will never disappear (you can still buy manual typewriters) the market will not be big enough for Canon, Nikon, & Ricoh.
But the Pentax user base does NOT buy $2,000 camera bodies. Never has. never will. The glass is simply not there.

FF for K-mount will only come when FF sensors drop even more. It is still a conundrum for Pentax because the DSLR market shares staled and may even be declining.
12-31-2014, 02:35 PM - 1 Like   #98
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
But the Pentax user base does NOT buy $2,000 camera bodies. Never has. never will. The glass is simply not there.

FF for K-mount will only come when FF sensors drop even more. It is still a conundrum for Pentax because the DSLR market shares staled and may even be declining.
I personally know several people who sold their Pentax equipment and bought D800 and several lenses after loosing their hope for Pentax FF. There are also a lot of people who bought 1700€ A7 to use their Pentax lenses on FF body. When we look back Pentax has usually sold more top model DSLRs than entry-level models.

I bought Pentax for WR, good user interface and quality products. I love Pentax way to build top level bodies (from K-7 to K-3) and limited lenses. I am ready to spend 2000€-2500€ for Pentax k-mount DSLR when it comes and I sure I am not the only one. So I totally disagree with you about price people are willing to spend for the body which fully support their FA limited lenses.

12-31-2014, 02:53 PM   #99
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
But the Pentax user base does NOT buy $2,000 camera bodies. Never has. never will. The glass is simply not there.

FF for K-mount will only come when FF sensors drop even more. It is still a conundrum for Pentax because the DSLR market shares staled and may even be declining.
It doesn't matter what the current user base is use to buying. The future it not about them. The 645z is a $8,000 body and is selling very well for its market. The future is about attracting new users. People who really needed or wanted FF left the Pentax brand, so they are no longer the user base. Pentax needs to find a way to bring them back and attract others who are in the market.

The glass is not there, but they have to start somewhere just like Fuji X , Sony FE, and M4/3. It's kind of like saying you can't go to Tokyo because you have never been there before. You're saying they can't build a FF system because they don't have a FF system. Should that FF system be K-mount? Should it be something else? I don't know. Expanding into a contracting market (DSLRs) is very, very risky. Can they create a mirrorless K-mount? Sure, but it will always be a compromise to appease legacy users and might not appeal to new users who see advantages of a system designed from the ground up to be mirrorless. As they graying legacy user base dies off Ricoh is in trouble.
12-31-2014, 03:04 PM   #100
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QuoteOriginally posted by Jyrkira Quote
I personally know several people who sold their Pentax equipment and bought D800 and several lenses after loosing their hope for Pentax FF. There are also a lot of people who bought 1700€ A7 to use their Pentax lenses on FF body. When we look back Pentax has usually sold more top model DSLRs than entry-level models.

I bought Pentax for WR, good user interface and quality products. I love Pentax way to build top level bodies (from K-7 to K-3) and limited lenses. I am ready to spend 2000€-2500€ for Pentax k-mount DSLR when it comes and I sure I am not the only one. So I totally disagree with you about price people are willing to spend for the body which fully support their FA limited lenses.
Pentax has ALWAYS been a mid to lower end supplier.

The problem has been FF sensor and circuitry prices going up 2-3 tiers higher than Pentax has ever sold at. So those APS-C customers who left for Canikon were really never the target anyway because there were never enough of them in the first place for Pentax to support independently.

FA Ltd lenses are a tiny fraction of what it takes because primes are only supplements to zooms for the vast majority of shooters. To get Pentax FF out the door you need the zooms, wide, long, longer and everything in between.

Right now the buy-in price for FF is about 200% higher than the traditional consumer range where all of Pentax's products have been for decades.

Years ago I calculated that Pentax would likely need 120,000 FF sales per annum to make a go of it on a 3-year product lifecycle. But when you look at Pentax DSLR sale of APS-C size, you see that Pentax would have to convert almost 30% of their user base to FF, essentially committing them to a MUCH higher price than they paid just a year or two prior, plus a renewed investment in FF glass. That is unrealistic. Canikon have maybe 8% of their unit sales are FF. That's it. The rest is APS-C. 8% of Pentax's user base is nowhere near 120k. It is more like 20k. Pentax would have to eat a massive loss for a decade to get FF traction using its existing make share, mostly to ramp up FF lens production to be seen as a viable alternative. Greater lens choices wit Canikon wold likely tempt many that way at that price point anyway.

The only time this makes sense is if FF prices drop significantly while the DSLR market stabilizes. That way they can get a transition of exiting users with less capital outlay. That reality is not there yet. The commodification of DSLR sales has made aPS=C a stunning bargain with a Nikon D3200 at $329 kit. Hard to beat. Very, very hard to ignore that value driving consumer demand to the lower end, not the upper.
12-31-2014, 03:32 PM   #101
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
Pentax has ALWAYS been a mid to lower end supplier.

The problem has been FF sensor and circuitry prices going up 2-3 tiers higher than Pentax has ever sold at. So those APS-C customers who left for Canikon were really never the target anyway because there were never enough of them in the first place for Pentax to support independently.

FA Ltd lenses are a tiny fraction of what it takes because primes are only supplements to zooms for the vast majority of shooters. To get Pentax FF out the door you need the zooms, wide, long, longer and everything in between.

Right now the buy-in price for FF is about 200% higher than the traditional consumer range where all of Pentax's products have been for decades.

Years ago I calculated that Pentax would likely need 120,000 FF sales per annum to make a go of it on a 3-year product lifecycle. But when you look at Pentax DSLR sale of APS-C size, you see that Pentax would have to convert almost 30% of their user base to FF, essentially committing them to a MUCH higher price than they paid just a year or two prior, plus a renewed investment in FF glass. That is unrealistic. Canikon have maybe 8% of their unit sales are FF. That's it. The rest is APS-C. 8% of Pentax's user base is nowhere near 120k. It is more like 20k. Pentax would have to eat a massive loss for a decade to get FF traction using its existing make share, mostly to ramp up FF lens production to be seen as a viable alternative. Greater lens choices wit Canikon wold likely tempt many that way at that price point anyway.

The only time this makes sense is if FF prices drop significantly while the DSLR market stabilizes. That way they can get a transition of exiting users with less capital outlay. That reality is not there yet. The commodification of DSLR sales has made aPS=C a stunning bargain with a Nikon D3200 at $329 kit. Hard to beat. Very, very hard to ignore that value driving consumer demand to the lower end, not the upper.
Cameras like A7, D750 and D610 are mid range now days. People that used to buy high end APS-C cameras (I count Pentax K20D, K-5 etc. to this segment) are quickly moving to low end FF cameras. 2000€-2500€ is not a problem for serious hobbyist who spent several thousands to lenses. People spend tens of thousands to their hobbies like motorbikes, cars, summer houses (very popular here in Finland), golf, hifi audio, boats, guitars, horses, fishing, traveling or something else. Spending 2000€ to camera hobby is not a big deal today.
12-31-2014, 03:53 PM   #102
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Pentax will not, can not and does not intend to compete with Canon and Nikon.
12-31-2014, 04:01 PM - 2 Likes   #103
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Pentax will not, can not and does not intend to compete with Canon and Nikon.
This is the message that a lot of people just don't get.
I like Pentax because of the lenses and great aps-c camera, and that they are different to the rest. FF would be great but i don't think it is going to happen. MF is their FF. I like it that they don't compete, it frees them to be innovative in their own way, and that sets them apart.
12-31-2014, 05:00 PM   #104
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12-31-2014, 06:32 PM   #105
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What is the technical difference between the APS-C and the FF body.. besides the obvious sensor size?? is that so expensive to put a FF sensor in a camera body? .. is that so expensive for manufactures to put a FF sensor in a body like the K3?? .. what we are seeing now is a more realistic price for the FF cameras.. Prices were just way to high for products that doesnt really need to be that expensive. My guess is that in the future as many said, we will see more often $1500 and even less FF cameras.. IMHO there is no reason to pay prices at $3000 for machines that are "almost" identical to high end APS-C cameras. The profit for the manufactures will be there, but in volume sales.
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