[Belnan]

I predict (the only real prediction I will make) second-hand Full Frame lenses will decline in price over the first few months after a Pentax FF camera is announced, the result of significant improvement in NEW Pentax lenses (which reduces demand for old Pentax lenses) coupled with an increase in supply of old lenses as 24,000,000 of them appear from the bags, shelves and closets of speculators the world over.

Wink Wink. Nudge Nudge.

Got a date in that crystal ball some where?

[monochrome]

I predict (the only real prediction I will make) second-hand Full Frame lenses will decline in price over the first few months after a Pentax FF camera is announced, the result of significant improvement in NEW Pentax lenses (which reduces demand for old Pentax lenses) coupled with an increase in supply of old lenses as 24,000,000 of them appear from camera bags and the shelves, closets and warehouses of speculators the world over.

Wink Wink. Nudge Nudge.

Got a date in that crystal ball some where?

I have nothing to add to the conversation. I've written before, I'm Sargeant Schultz.

But I note all the usual second-hand lens suspects (eBay's JCO, the Venckuses and matsuiyastore, KEH, local people, the Marketplace) seem to be very light on older and more desirable K-mount FF lenses For Sale. It feels like that period before the introduction of the 645D - and a bit like before the 645Z - when those who knew were quiet and those who talked were WAY wrong (kenspo excepted, he's too new).

[banep]

I predict (the only real prediction I will make) second-hand Full Frame lenses will decline in price over the first few months after a Pentax FF camera is announced, the result of significant improvement in NEW Pentax lenses (which reduces demand for old Pentax lenses) coupled with an increase in supply of old lenses as 24,000,000 of them appear from the bags, shelves and closets of speculators the world over.

It depends which lenses.
In my previous film and current digital life, I tried almost everything from K,M,A,F series and some FA series lenses under 1000$ which are worth trying.
On my opinion in total there is no more than 20 Pentax lenses (under 1000$) which are good enough in compare to modern lenses with similar characteristics.
Prices for those lenses will rise as soon as people start testing them on digital full frame body.
Prices for the rest of those lenses under 1000$ which are not so good, even if they are overpriced now, will significantly decline.
Prices for expensive old lenses which costs much more than 1000$ will depend on existence of modern replacements for them.
If replacement or similar modern lens exists price of old lens will decline and if doesn't exists it will rise.
Off course it is so simple only in theory.

[aoeu]

I have no interest in FF. I had no interest in upgrading from my K-5 to the K-3, but........ if used, bargain priced, K-3's start popping up like dandelions in spring, then I might have to spring for one.

Disagree. I will buy the first FF K-mount if it doesn't suck the week the second generation version goes to market. I've always bought used.

If it isn't K-mount there is a gap in the market. A digital Graphlex for the thousands of Speed Graphics . . .

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Last edited by aoeu; 02-02-2015 at 01:07 PM. Reason: typo

[rawr]

Yep, K mount FF camera in D750's class, functionality and price range, but more durable and without light leaks will be just fine.
It is also ok to produce two similar bodies with 24mp and 36mp sensors like Sony.
One which is more optimized for speed and the other one optimized for high quality.

This would be a great outcome, particularly if pricing and features follow the pattern of the Nikon D750/D810, or even the Sony A7/A7r.

While the success of the 645Z shows people are willing to pay high prices for top quality gear, Ricoh should be careful not to over-price any new FF. The 645Z is premium priced, but it's sales success is in part due to the fact that it represents a bargain compared to it's MF peers. Any Pentax FF should also be priced according to the market, and at the moment the price of FF has never been lower, nor has the FF market ever been as crowded as it is today. Rolls Royce FF pricing won't work for Pentax.

[monochrome]

Rolls Royce FF pricing won't work for Pentax.

D810 spec.s +/- at 80% of List (and quickly 80% of street)? It couldn't (honestly) be labeled 'almost' professional by DPR. It would likely be smaller, more durable and more comfortable and whatever else is Pentax DNA. It is said to have some 'surprise' element. (No speculation from me).

The nominal price would cause howls from the Forum, but it would follow the 645Z pricing logic.

[Paul the Sunman]

While the success of the 645Z shows people are willing to pay high prices for top quality gear, Ricoh should be careful not to over-price any new FF. ... Rolls Royce FF pricing won't work for Pentax.

Pricing is an equation between development, production and distribution costs and units sold. In our wildest dreams, we can't imagine Pentax selling as many FF cameras as Canon or Nikon, whilst the costs are arguably comparable. So it will not be easy for Ricoh to keep the price down.

The way Pentax have kept development costs down with the 645D and Z is to build on K5/K3 technology, which isn't ideal (AF points too closely clustered?) but is very sensible overall. One can only presume they will do the same with a FF. However, in MF they are competing against other low volume manufacturers. FF will be different; less financial wiggle room.

[6BQ5]

In summary:

IF...
...it's not full frame
...it's not $1500
...it's filled with features that I don't want
...it comes in colors that I don't want or want to be even remotely associated with
...it says RICOH anywhere on the camera
...it was even breathed upon by Mark Newsom

THEN
...I'm going to come here and vent
...I'm going to sell all my Pentax and go where the grass is greener

The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Or, as my mother says, the grass is greener where you aren't. So, after switching to the greener grass we'll be waiting for you to come back to where you aren't.

BTW, I always enjoy seeing your work - especially what you did with a Q.

[THoog]

The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Or, as my mother says, the grass is greener where you aren't. So, after switching to the greener grass we'll be waiting for you to come back to where you aren't.

...and that's why Pentax cameras are no good for Landscape work - the grass will always be greener with some other brand.

[kenspo]

The way Pentax have kept development costs down with the 645D and Z is to build on K5/K3 technology, which isn't ideal (AF points too closely clustered?) but is very sensible overall. One can only presume they will do the same with a FF. However, in MF they are competing against other low volume manufacturers. FF will be different; less financial wiggle room.

We have reported back to Pentax all the way since K-3 came. The AF is something we have raised concers about. If they have listened to us, we'll see soon

[Kunzite]

...and that's why Pentax cameras are no good for Landscape work - the grass will always be greener with some other brand.

I disagree; that's why Pentax cameras are the best for Landscape work. Other brands are simply over-saturating the grass

[reh321]

Pricing is an equation between development, production and distribution costs and units sold. In our wildest dreams, we can't imagine Pentax selling as many FF cameras as Canon or Nikon, whilst the costs are arguably comparable. So it will not be easy for Ricoh to keep the price down.

The way Pentax have kept development costs down with the 645D and Z is to build on K5/K3 technology, which isn't ideal (AF points too closely clustered?) but is very sensible overall. One can only presume they will do the same with a FF. However, in MF they are competing against other low volume manufacturers. FF will be different; less financial wiggle room.

I believe Canikon shares some costs amongst their various products. There is no reason Pentax shouldn't share some costs amongst APS-C, FF, and MF products.

[monochrome]

We have reported back to Pentax all the way since K-3 came. The AF is something we have raised concers about. If they have listened to us, we'll see soon

If their corporate history in copiers is any guide, constant improvement, constant work is expected. No single product is a stopping point, like getting off on the floor you want. Each single product is a step on an escalator that goes up infinitely.

I imagine AF will be better than K-3 - and the next camera will have better AF than this one.

Pentax limits are the component suppliers - we've written here about Milbeaut and video capabilities - and possibly production scheduling and converting the percentage of hand-assembly to machine-assembly. Even that, though, can happen over time. With Ricoh's smaller recent capital investments compared to Canon and Nikon they have more freedom to invest in machines now - they don't have pre-exiting investments, made at a time of much higher volume sales - to amortize the way Canon and Nikon probably do (Fuji, and to a degree Oly and Sony also enjoy this lever).

We tend here to think of each product as a bucket rather than one point on a continuum (K-S1 NFMsNFA, for instance). In the past Pentax was sort of a bucket company going all the way back to the K-mount cameras - a great camera or lens every so often, then little to no incremental improvement afterward - the LX, for example. From the outside looking in it appears Ricoh views the business as an organism, rebuilding itself continually as cells wear out and are replaced by new, evolved cells (Products).

I think the Hoya experience was near terminal - but Pentax is back.

[boriscleto]

...and that's why Pentax cameras are no good for Landscape work - the grass will always be greener with some other brand.

I disagree; that's why Pentax cameras are the best for Landscape work. Other brands are simply over-saturating the grass

Pentax always had the best green until they switched to CMOS sensors. How dare they not use CCDs anymore.

[discharged]

We have reported back to Pentax all the way since K-3 came. The AF is something we have raised concers about. If they have listened to us, we'll see soon

You have taken quite a beating these last few days, glad to see you're not knocked out cold yet!

Perhaps I can add some validity to Kenspo...I am a former Ricoh employee and since about three months back I've recieved a steady stream of rumors from my former coworkers. Let me give you the full story on how it began and I will let you decide if you believe me or not. It is mentioned on my facebook page that I atleast used to be employed by ricoh. www.facebook.com/discharged and if you look at my activity you can see that nothing has changed for many months, if not years... I don't use facebook

I became a father about 7 months ago, and when my son was ~4 months old I took him out on a meet and greet, to Ricoh and to my current employer. I had my camera with me ofcourse and when they saw it was an k-30 they told me that I should upgrade that old brick. I then said that I wanted to, but I felt that for my shooting I wanted to go for a full frame camera and I had been testing the Sony A7 but did not like the viewfinder, and I have so many k-mount lenses that I still want to use. I got a cryptic response from one in the camera division saying losely translated into english "why not buy a pentax full frame? Oh, we don't have any of those... Sorry don't know what I thought about... we must be in the future marty! "*big smile and a wink* or not wink but like throwing the head, like a model or actor if you understand... My name is Martin and the last sentance was actually said in english, a reference to back to the future

This was all in the *I don't know the right word but where you sit and drink coffee etc. during breaks in an office*

After that when I was back at my old room, I prodded one I used to work with a bit, but he had no idea of anything to do with cameras, he is not interrested and he works with IT so I was not surprised.

Then the next day I got a text saying "one year or less "

Since then I've gotten a few tidbits when we have had lunch etc. Nothing really concrete, some office gossip, some fractions of tangible information. The persons I know the best at Ricoh work like myself in IT and not with the cameras, so mostly gossip they have picked up themselves.