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02-21-2015, 10:34 AM   #31
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QuoteOriginally posted by THoog Quote
Agreed - does anyone know if these numbers are based on number of units sold, or value of product sold? Also, I don't know how seriously we can take that 7.5% in the 2012 award - that would have been sales during 2011, the year of the earthquake/tsunami, when Pentax introduced no new DSLRs. I haven't looked to see what Canon and Nikon did. ILCs were counted differently in the years before that, so it's impossible to tell what the trend really is. It could be that ~5% is typical for Pentax, and 7.5% was a spike due to a really unusual year.


I am not sure also, but Pentax builds bodies in the Philippines and all but the * line of lenses are in Vietnam so the Earthquake/Tsunami did not affect production. But as you said, there were no new models out so not really sure what was the reason behind additional sales, perhaps the Q?

02-21-2015, 10:40 AM   #32
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QuoteOriginally posted by MadMathMind Quote
There's a few factors, of course:
1) Companies are conservative. Big investments in new technologies are risky. Sony has taken many risks; some worked out great (Playstation, a huge leap of faith at the time) but many others...not so much. Some companies can absorb the losses due to the risks better than others.

2) Cannibalization. If Canon sells you a mirrorless camera, you probably will not also buy a DSLR. It's a lateral movement: capturing one market at the cost of another is only a good idea if the other market is drying up. Developing two technologies that eat at each other's sales is a pretty poor business model.

3) Arrogance. Companies don't always get it right. Kodak believed film would be forever and the lucrative professional market would never switch to digital. How did that work out for them?
Or as Pentax themselves have said (and I paraphrase) "Mirrorless isn't quite there yet."
02-21-2015, 11:11 AM   #33
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I agree. But many big public companies find themselves under pressure to remove themselves from businesses if they are a drag on the bottom line. If pentax is, that is a concern unless ricoh really has something up its sleeve. So far it seems committed to Pentaxes success. Let's hope it achieves it.


QuoteOriginally posted by MPrince Quote
I don't think digital cameras is Ricoh's most important market. Ricoh operates in three business segments: "Imaging & Solutions" (printers, copiers, other office equipment), "Industrial", and "Other".

"Imaging & Solutions" is by far their largest segment. Sales in the other two segments aren't even close.

Digital cameras is part of their "Other" segment.
02-21-2015, 12:11 PM   #34
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QuoteOriginally posted by Spodeworld Quote
I agree. But many big public companies find themselves under pressure to remove themselves from businesses if they are a drag on the bottom line. If pentax is, that is a concern unless ricoh really has something up its sleeve. So far it seems committed to Pentaxes success. Let's hope it achieves it.
As they currently run it Pentax is NOT a drag on the Ricoh bottom line. According to leading security analysts, If they really went after the big boys using the global high volume / low margin model, Pentax WOULD be a drag on the bottom line.

Which is why they haven't done that.

02-21-2015, 12:38 PM   #35
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QuoteOriginally posted by Steve.Ledger Quote
Quantity has never directly translated to quality.
Canon might sell more DLSRs than the others, but there's a reason for this which has nothing to do with Canon cameras being better.
Here are couple of stories about Canon quality.

My friend's $7000 (Canadian dollars) Canon 1D Mk IV has a problem with its mirror sticking in the up position. It will cost at least $300 (CAD) to fix. The repair tech says it is a known issue for that model of Canon.

I was in a local, independent camera store and overheard a customer loudly complaining that he had two copies of a recent model Canon DSLRs fail completely and was asking whether he would have to fly to Canon's Toronto office himself to get the issue resolved.

Unfortunately that store only carries a couple of the WG series and a couple of K-50, so the loud customer couldn't handle the K-3 or some nice Pentax lenses. The other bricks-and-mortar store, an outlet of the Henry's chain, used to carry some Pentax after they opened, but during the last couple of visits I didn't see a single Pentax or Ricoh item.
02-21-2015, 01:03 PM - 1 Like   #36
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parallax Quote
If you're very quiet, and listen very carefully, you can hear the sound a few people's heads exploding.
Pinheads?
02-21-2015, 01:10 PM   #37
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
DSLR shipments to Japan according to CIPA:

2012: 1,017,712
2013: 1,447,893
2014: 1,082,010

Pentax share in the Japanese DSLR market according to BCN ranking:

2012: <5.1%
2013: 5.2%
2014: 4.5%

Pentax DSLR shipments to Japan according to yours truly

2012: < 51,900
2013: 75,300
2014: 48,700

(the same calculation for 2011 leads to 110,000 DSLRs and Qs)
And they sold around 52.200 MILC (Q's). So 100k camera's in Japan. That leads to maybe around the same number to the rest of the world (mostley dslr), so a 1 % marketshare outside Japan,

https://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/137-photographic-industry-professionals/288709-pentax-marketshare-less-then-1-a.html
02-21-2015, 01:16 PM   #38
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parallax Quote
If you're very quiet, and listen very carefully, you can hear the sound a few people's heads exploding.
the only thing that i can hear is a failure to understand the data that should really matter most to pentax owners

or maybe i just misinterpreted the data? dslr doesn't really have only 20% more market share than mirrorless in japan?

single lens reflex: 1,082,010 total shipments to japan is 74.7% growth over 2013

non-reflex: 724,775 total shipments to japan is 81.8% growth over 2013

1)the mirrorless numbers don't include samsung, because samsung is not a member of cipa.
2)mirrorless is growing faster than dslr in japan, in an overall japanese digital camera market that only had 73% growth in 2014.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2014_e.pdf

02-21-2015, 03:04 PM   #39
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See? Told ya. LOL
02-21-2015, 03:23 PM   #40
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Here what I give last time about Ricoh camera business around the world. Not a lot outside Japan

Sales Domestic (Japan) 75.7 Billions yens 84,6 % share
Europe, Middle east and Africa 5.5 6.1%
Others 4.6 5.1%
America 3,7 4.1%

---------- Post added 21st Feb 2015 at 17:30 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by osv Quote
the only thing that i can hear is a failure to understand the data that should really matter most to pentax owners

or maybe i just misinterpreted the data? dslr doesn't really have only 20% more market share than mirrorless in japan?

single lens reflex: 1,082,010 total shipments to japan is 74.7% growth over 2013

non-reflex: 724,775 total shipments to japan is 81.8% growth over 2013

1)the mirrorless numbers don't include samsung, because samsung is not a member of cipa.
2)mirrorless is growing faster than dslr in japan, in an overall japanese digital camera market that only had 73% growth in 2014.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2014_e.pdf
I believe you are interpreting the growth the wrong way

the Growth is equal of 74,7% of 2013 volume meaning volume is down 25,3 % . Same thing applied to Mirroless

The real figure is the top line who is the volume and second line Yen
DSLR are 76,3 % of 2013 volume versus Mirrorless who is at 99,5 % of 2013 volume , meaning no growth.
02-21-2015, 03:58 PM   #41
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QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
Here what I give last time about Ricoh camera business around the world. Not a lot outside Japan

Sales Domestic (Japan) 75.7 Billions yens 84,6 % share
Europe, Middle east and Africa 5.5 6.1%
Others 4.6 5.1%
America 3,7 4.1%[COLOR="Silver"]
Are you sure those numbers are all about digital cameras? I know what's written in those financial reports, I've read them myself (that brief footnote) - but Other also includes leasing and logistics, which appears to be very Japanese-centric businesses.
Assuming an average value of 44,000 Yen for a body and 22,500 Yen for a lens and assuming they would sell on average 1.5 lenses for a body (I know, lots of assumptions), 75,7 billions yen correspond roughly to 1 million digital cameras sold. In other words, over 7% of the ILC market.
Even factoring out the compacts, as they barely have few models that percentage would not fall too much. But I think their actual market share is lower, and those numbers include sales other than digital cameras.

Here's another approach; BCNRanking estimated a market share of 4.5% for DSLRs, and ~8.7% for MILCs. That means ~48,500 DSLRs (~2.5 billion Yen) and ~63,000 MILCs (~2.5 billion Yen) with a total average value of ~5 billion Yen.
1.5 lens sold on average for each means ~150,000 lenses, with a total value of 3,375 billion yen.
In total - under 9 billion Yen. Sure, there must be other sources but it's a far cry from the 75.7 billion Yen for the entire Others.

P.S. It's late and I'm tired, so you might want to double check my calculations...

Last edited by Kunzite; 02-21-2015 at 04:18 PM.
02-21-2015, 04:53 PM   #42
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We can't do more than some estimations. But one thing is clear. Pentax market is small. Very small. And if, buy some accident, the Japanese market will fall for some time, so will do Pentax.

That means that along with launching new models and lenses, even if they are not perfect, as I said before in a comparison with Nikon evolution in the last 3 years, they must expand in other markets. US, EU, China, India, Brazil, etc.

Today, people are overwelmed with information. So, if someone is not a enthusiast photographer, he will never about Pentax cameras and lenses, until Pentax will not come in to his house.

The only conclusion is that Pentax need a big, really big advertising campaign. Maybe like Ricoh is doing for their copy machine, on sports competition world wide.
02-21-2015, 05:03 PM   #43
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QuoteOriginally posted by JimmyDranox Quote

The only conclusion is that Pentax need a big, really big advertising campaign. Maybe like Ricoh is doing for their copy machine, on sports competition world wide.
Never throw additional money into a declining market. :-)
02-21-2015, 05:10 PM   #44
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Never throw additional money into a declining market. :-)
Better get the hell out of it, you mean?
02-21-2015, 05:16 PM   #45
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
Also consider that Ricoh's real hit product this year has been the 645z, which is never going to register on these charts. Some portion of that Ricoh figure is 645z cameras.
Come on, K-3 outsells in 3 weeks the entire yearly production of the 645Z.

Numbers are down because Ricoh's DSLR offer has been poor, timing poor too, no real dough.
Also market changed dramatically since 2012 — now every DSLR maker, except Ricoh who did not change at all, has several FF machines. The FF drives sales of FF and of crop cameras stronger than ever, but in case of Pentax, who has no marketing, nothing drives even crop cameras.

Pentax is a part of DSLR market, but becoming less and less relevant even in domestic grounds. Diving trend for Ricoh will continue through the 2015, as the infusion of sanity and real value (FF, K-S2) came too late, and maybe, just maybe, dive stopped in 2016.

Only then Ricoh may dream their Pentax hobby to become part of the modern DSLR market. Now it isn't. Pentax has dropped so low that it most likely will stay below its usual 6% worldwide share. If Pentax stops and stays at 3% in 2016, I'll be pleasantly surprised. But from there, it will never rise again. Every percentage lost for Pentax, is lost forever.

Last edited by Uluru; 02-21-2015 at 05:23 PM.
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