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02-25-2015, 10:06 AM   #106
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QuoteOriginally posted by carpents Quote
I suppose. Apologies to the tabletographers out there, it was just a knee jerk reaction.
The new iPad Air 2 has the same camera as the iPhone 5S, which is phenomenal.

They USED to be embarrassingly bad, like 1.6 megapixels. Not any more.

Cheers,
Cameron

02-25-2015, 02:36 PM   #107
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
Wide angle zoom seem to be amongst the most difficult to do "right". The most expensive lens for the Pentax Q-family is the 08 lens, which is essentially comparable to a 10-18mm lens.
Ehh, equivalent (35mm camera) on Q7 itīs like 17,5- 27mm.
02-25-2015, 02:49 PM   #108
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QuoteOriginally posted by Cambo Quote
The new iPad Air 2 has the same camera as the iPhone 5S, which is phenomenal.

They USED to be embarrassingly bad, like 1.6 megapixels. Not any more.

Cheers,
Cameron
I have 8 megapixel camera in my Samsung Tab Pro 12.2 and that is nice, but nothing more then that. The use of tablets is something I noticed a whila ago and the less using of real camera's.

http://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/16-pentax-news-rumors/269812-state-camera-market.html

That is something that is still going on and why the market for dslr keeps shrinking in 2015 (I guess also in 2016). Also the market for lenses will shrink very fast over the coming years since you can buy lots of lenses in the used market over time from people who stopped using dslr's.
02-25-2015, 03:29 PM   #109
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I have 8 megapixel camera in my Samsung Tab Pro 12.2 and that is nice, but nothing more then that. The use of tablets is something I noticed a whila ago and the less using of real camera's.

http://www.pentaxforums.com/forums/16-pentax-news-rumors/269812-state-camera-market.html

That is something that is still going on and why the market for dslr keeps shrinking in 2015 (I guess also in 2016). Also the market for lenses will shrink very fast over the coming years since you can buy lots of lenses in the used market over time from people who stopped using dslr's.
Tablets are the new Instamatics. I suspect we're seeing part of a cycle in which some people will start to realise the limitations of using phone and tablet cameras, just as they did with cheap film cameras, years ago, and then start looking at what's available in dedicated higher-standard cameras. Convenience will rule for the majority, as "good enough" will satisfy them, but a minority will realise that "good enough" translates to "mediocre" when viewed with a more critical eye, and seek something better.

02-27-2015, 04:08 AM   #110
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I have 8 megapixel camera in my Samsung Tab Pro 12.2 and that is nice, but nothing more then that.
I didn't use my phone cameras much until I got an iPhone 6 a couple of months ago. As long as the wide angle view is suitable, the quality is just remarkable. I'm now able to take reasonably good photos in situations where carrying my K-5 is not an option - like when I'm out running:



02-27-2015, 08:28 AM - 1 Like   #111
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QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
I didn't use my phone cameras much until I got an iPhone 6 a couple of months ago. As long as the wide angle view is suitable, the quality is just remarkable. I'm now able to take reasonably good photos in situations where carrying my K-5 is not an option - like when I'm out running:



That is a good enough image to even make a nice size print if you like!
02-27-2015, 09:28 AM   #112
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
Tablets are the new Instamatics. I suspect we're seeing part of a cycle in which some people will start to realise the limitations of using phone and tablet cameras, just as they did with cheap film cameras, years ago, and then start looking at what's available in dedicated higher-standard cameras. Convenience will rule for the majority, as "good enough" will satisfy them, but a minority will realise that "good enough" translates to "mediocre" when viewed with a more critical eye, and seek something better.
A member (I think gaweidert ) still employed by Kodak says the average Instamatic had only 4 rolls of film run through it.

QuoteOriginally posted by gazonk Quote
I didn't use my phone cameras much until I got an iPhone 6 a couple of months ago. As long as the wide angle view is suitable, the quality is just remarkable. I'm now able to take reasonably good photos in situations where carrying my K-5 is not an option - like when I'm out running:
An Instamtic was just fine for small prints. I equate web posting to the 4x6 prints that came back in the yellow envelopes. I didn't need an SLR and 5 lenses to document my travels or parties, An Instamatic was just fine. The KX and lenses my grandmother gave me wasn't used for very much I couldn't do before - but those are worth having.

We forget that the sales figures we are comparing were the peak of the soccer mom acquisition euphoria - a steep up leg -and this is just the other side of the mountain. dSLR sales will return to their natural enthusiast volume since the 'consumers' have moved on from $600 kits to $600 phones and tablets. Ricoh won't need to adjust much - Canon, Nikon, maybe Sony - more adjustment necessary.
02-27-2015, 03:50 PM   #113
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Comforting thought is that with current 4.5% of the market, the total number of units still means 3-4 times more cameras being sold than during the film era. So today's 4.5% surpasses worldwide share of some 6-7% in the film era.

Because digital DSLR market, even now, is 3-4 times bigger than film SLR market. At the top of DSLR buying frenzy of several years ago, digital DSLR market was ~6 times bigger than film SLR market. And as a comparison, the curve of film SLR sales in the 15 years prior to DSLRs, was flat. Canon was selling some 1 million EOS SLRs per year worldwide, for over a decade. No increases. Just flat. And that was it.

Now they cry if they don't sell 6x that figure. Pffff .. crybabies.

I have no idea why anyone in their right mind believed that such ridiculous trend of 6x increase of DSLR sales will remain. It is economically impossible. I still believe even 3-4x is not plausible to expect. 2-3 is more realistic, which includes population increase.

What I also expect, that sooner or later both Nikon and Canon and many other players will need to reorganise or restructure. Sony already started. Then, we may see a sudden jump in Pentax market share; without any extra effort done by Pentax. Because other players will need to restructure and change, and that will inevitably lead them to consciously sacrifice some market share in order to keep finances healthier. That is inevitable, and now they are thinking how to do it without such sacrifice.

If they reduce inventories and number of models, only extra marketing will help them to stay in place for a while. Plus, they desperately need more money for healthy R&D — Canon now definitely faces that problem, as they use basically same camera tech for 8-9 years. That allowed them to make profits because tech has been paid off many times now. As they go forward, their profits will be thinner.


Last edited by Uluru; 02-27-2015 at 04:10 PM.
02-27-2015, 06:18 PM - 1 Like   #114
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That's all because of a word. The new religion. ''Grow''. Grow faster. Grow bigger. Who in the right mind can thing that economy can grow continue, without stop, or reverse?

Dow Jones is on record level. Great! Radioshack fills for bankrupt. Great! HP announce 58 000 people will go home. Great! Euro is going down. Great! And so on.

We live on Titanic, and we are happy. And the band is singing. ''Grow, grow, grow''

Last edited by JimmyDranox; 02-27-2015 at 06:35 PM.
02-27-2015, 06:40 PM   #115
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???? :confused2:
02-27-2015, 11:19 PM - 1 Like   #116
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I like Dr Suzuki's analogy of our current moment, that applies in both economic and ecologic sense: we are all driving at an insane speed towards the brick wall, and yet we fight inside the car who is going to sit on the front seat.
02-28-2015, 02:14 AM - 7 Likes   #117
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About the Business Issues

This has been a fascinating thread to read, and hear the positive and negative positions about the future of Ricoh/Pentax relative to market share etc.

It got me thinking about each companies overall business, and what the drivers and business motivations are. So I did some quick searches of 2014 company results and found the following

Ricoh: Revenue = 2.2 Trillion Yen, Camera/Others = 90 Billion Yen, Camera/Others =4% of revenue
Canon: Revenue = 3.7 Trillion Yen, Camera/Imaging = 1360 Billion Yen, Camera/Imaging = 36% of revenue
Nikon: Revenue = 0.98 Trillion Yen, Cameras = 680 Billion Yen, Cameras = 70% of revenue
Sony: Revenue = 7.8 Trillion Yen, Cameras/Imaging = 760 Billion Yen, Cameras/Imaging = 9.7% of revenue

Note that due to the bundling of categories by each company we are not comparing like for like in terms of pure camera sales - other products (video cameras for Sony, sport optics for Nikon etc) are bundled.

Analysis of Data:

In terms of camera/imaging revenue Canon is leads with Y1,360B, Sony is next Y 760B followed by Nikon Y680B and Ricoh are well below this at Y90B

In terms of who is exposed to revenue damage with the current camera market contraction Nikon are very exposed at 70% of revenue, Canon somewhat at 36% of revenue, Sony and Ricoh not much at all - say 5% Sony (allow half video, half still camera) and 4% Ricoh.

So, Nikon could be in real trouble as a company if the camera market downturn continues. If camera volume/revenue halves as some on this thread have been predicting then Nikon could lose as much as 35% of company revenue - catastrophic for them. For Nikon this explains the rush to FF cameras - trying to get the selling price (and profit) per unit up, as sales volume drops. It makes a lot of sense, but I am not sure it will help them much in the end with FF being only about 10% of the total camera sales. Nice try Nikon, but in company revenue terms still likely to be a fail.

The question then becomes, why has Ricoh, as Y2.2T business imaging company decided to add a camera unit that adds a tiny 4% of revenue.

To answer that question you have to know who Ricoh competes against (I will give you a hint - it isn't Nikon). Globally Ricoh completes against Xerox and Canon in the massive business imaging market. Very recently Canon has taken the number one spot in that market off Xerox. In Japan, with Xerox being an American company Ricoh competes head to head with Canon. Canon is bigger overall Y3.7T verses Ricoh Y2.2T but almost all of that Y1.5T revenue difference is in Canons Camera/Imaging revenue of Y1.36T.

Business Imaging - Ricoh's and Canon's main game involves a lot of machinery, including a vital imaging component. Canon have imaging and sensor expertise and symmetries, R&D, optics etc across their business machine and camera/imaging groups - much more so than Ricoh.

So, why did Ricoh purchase Pentax - well it was cheap for a start, but it also provided optics and imaging expertise and more importantly a drawer full of imaging patents. Folded into Ricoh's existing very small camera group it has provided the start for building over time all the advantages that Canon currently holds in this arena. A definite head start for Ricoh due to the patents and optics expertise. What Ricoh needs to compete more successfully and fully with Canon is wide and deep imaging and optics expertise, patents and R&D.

Pentax development is one small corner of what they are working on - the Theta might be more of a clue as to where some of the optics and software development is heading.

For Canon, Ricoh and Xerox the massive competitive pressure is if one of them gets a massive jump forward in business imagining/machine quality and, or cost structure - that puts 2 trillion yen a year revenue at risk. Ricoh will be working very hard to make sure that doesn't happen to them.

A further motivation for Ricoh in the acquisition and development of Pentax is that if they can compete with Canon in the imaging products market - still and video cameras, sports optics etc. then they will increase their revenue (and profit) while potentially reducing their main competitors revenue and profit.

The math works like this. Canon Imagining revenue Y1,400 billion a year (rounded for simplicity). Lets say camera sales half as the market contracts - so Canon Imaging revenue now Y700 billion. Ricoh imaging revenue currently Y90 billion. Lets say that halves too - to Y50 billion. So far so good.

Now lets really speculate that Ricoh produce some very cool, high value, well executed camera and imaging product and grow their market share and revenue by 3 times to Y150 billion. Lets also speculate that market share comes from Canon, and that Canon also lose some market share to Sony and others. So very speculatively Canon loses another Y200 billion of market share to Ricoh, Sony and all others. So now the Canon Imaging Group is Y500 billion revenue and Canon total revenue (business machines stays the same) is now Y2.8 trillion. At the same time Ricoh have grown their imaging and other revenue by say Y100 billion - they are now a Y2.3 trillion company, with imaging growth momentum, and also within realistic striking distance of Canon at a time when Canon would be struggling because of lost revenue, need to reduce costs etc. They are growing at the same time as helping their main competitor to a raft of problems and issues - a sweet strategy.

In this scenario of half revenue from cameras, Nikon would possibly fold or with a reduced annual revenue of Y600 billion be brought out by a company with a strategy of consolidating and growing its imaging group. If for instance Ricoh were to buy a reduced Nikon at that point they would have revenue of about Y2.9 - Y3.0 trillion and be about the same size or slightly bigger than Canon, with a similar suite of products and complimentary strengths.

Which would in turn provide Ricoh better risk management and development in the all important business machine revenue market. Ricoh would also be the company growing and developing while Canon, caught with the large camera market shift would be the company shrinking in revenue and struggling. Perhaps a small harbinger of this developing problem for Canon has been their lack of innovation in their cameras and camera sensors recently.

So, with a slightly aggressive strategy and a few smooth moves, executed over at the most a decade Ricoh could achieve a huge range of business goals - with or without swallowing Nikon - (that would just make it more interesting from the sidelines) .

So, having written these scenarios - do I think 'Pentax is doomed' - not a chance, the future is extremely bright for Pentax, because it is an integral part of a very smart, logical and well planned business strategy that Ricoh is executing right now. I look forward to their new products and developments

Nikon, now that is another different, and much more interesting business story........

Last edited by NZ_Ross; 02-28-2015 at 02:54 AM.
02-28-2015, 02:44 AM   #118
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Yes, Ross, good writeup - Nikon are the most vulnerable of that group to market conditions. Do you have numbers for Fuji and Olympus?
02-28-2015, 02:48 AM   #119
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Yes, Ross, good writeup - Nikon are the most vulnerable of that group to market conditions. Do you have numbers for Fuji and Olympus?
I haven't looked - I was really wanting to examine the Ricoh, Canon competition. I just found everything I needed on Bloomberg and the some quick Google searches on the company results
02-28-2015, 04:27 AM   #120
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QuoteOriginally posted by NZ_Ross Quote
This has been a fascinating thread to read, and hear the positive and negative positions about the future of Ricoh/Pentax relative to market share etc.

It got me thinking about each companies overall business, and what the drivers and business motivations are. So I did some quick searches of 2014 company results and found ,,.
Fantastic scenario! Thank you very much. However, Canon must see the trap themselves and will be working hard to evade it with plans of their own, so who knows what will happen. Things don't look good for Nikon, though, as you say.

Ricoh's stock price has been coasting of late while Canon's is up a bit, at least over the past year or so - I think. If what you say works out even half way, then the market is being too pessimistiic about Ricoh. It's quite tempting to have a modest punt on them really - buy and look to hold for say five years.
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