[Glorfindelrb]

I might be interested in a 77 but I have a DA70 and no FF body. You cannot expect to sell FF lenses well when the FF body is still not there. I don't know the pricing, I cannot exclude a great disappointment (Kenspo keep saying that some will not be happy) and the FF body will already eat my photo budget at least for 2015. If you're optimistic about the lenses to come, your best option is also to wait. I really don't know why they would be a real demand for Limiteds before next year except if the price point is very low.

[monochrome]

Lowering price is an attempt to increase the demand. It still represents a demand issue. If the demand is high you don't have to lower prices.

Demand and supply are at equilibrium, a desirable state. In order to increase unit sales Ricoh has to create disequilibrium by lowering prices for a short period, which is a less desirable state, but serves a short term purpose.

Last month virtually every lens Pentax makes was On Sale. Does that mean the entire catalog suffers from lack of Demand? No.

That is the nature of MAP pricing.

[Winder]

Demand and supply are at equilibrium, a desirable state. In order to increase unit sales DEMAND Ricoh has to create disequilibrium by lowering prices for a short period, which is a less desirable state, but serves a short term purpose.

Fixed it for you.

Equilibrium exists when demand and supply are balanced.
Shortage means that prices are too low.
Surplus means that prices are too high.

If sales (demand) of the 77mm were high enough that inventory would clear before the replacement was to be launched, then there would be no reason to lower prices. The only reason to lower prices is if demand (sales) are too low to clear inventory in time.

---------- Post added 08-15-15 at 12:42 PM ----------

Last month virtually every lens Pentax makes was On Sale. Does that mean the entire catalog suffers from lack of Demand? No.

That is the nature of MAP pricing.

Virtually being the key word. There is a reason some lenses are on discount and other (D-FA* 70-200mm) are not. The sale isn't simply a matter of charity on the part of retailers. They want to clear inventory.

[monochrome]

Fixed it for you.

Equilibrium exists when demand and supply are balanced.

Your formulation, of course, is dependent on price elasticity of demand, but that economic theorum is best applied to items in constant production, wherein expenses (such as capital loan interest payments or union salaries) must be paid whether or not units are sold. Where there is negligible current cost per unit, such as when a manufacturer makes an item in batches and holds inventory for many years (as in the case of the FA77) price equilibrium can be controlled by matching supply to demand rather than matching price to demand in the face of constant supply. It is not necessary to stimulate demand to maintain price equilibrium. To Ricoh, an FA77 in inventory is essentially stored cash. Selling a few more FA77's than normal is akin to making an extra withdrawal or two, above your scheduled monthly bank withdrawals, to meet a non-scheduled expense (such as introducing a new product or three).

An example of managing price of a constant-production commodity by changing supply for a non-economic purpose is the global price of oil, which has been managed by OPEC raising and lowering supply in response to changing demand in order to regulate price within an optimal range. Recently Saudi Arabia (whose cost of production is between $3 and $4 a barrel) chose not to reduce OPEC supply in response to new supply introduced by IRAQ, Syria and especially US shale oil producers. The price of oil has declined 65% since November, when Saudi Arabia announced their intentions - and actually INCREASED their production. OPEC want to drive the new US producers out of business so they can maintain their market share and regain control of the oil price.

Interstingly, global Demand for crude oil is relatively constant at 95 - 96MM bpd (2015) +K1.9% annual growth. IEA says global production is 2% above that level. My current investment bank says global production is 1.6% above that level. Demand for oil has not changed much from November, 2014 trend in the face of lower price (though in the US we are consuming more oil than ever in history - ever - because consumption has dropped by an equivalent amount elsewhere due to efficiency). Overproduction of 1 ~ 2% in a constant-production commodity market is enough in the real world to alter prices by 65%. A few FA77's here or there are meaningless by comparison.

Shortage means that prices are too low.
Surplus means that prices are too high.

If sales (demand) of the 77mm were high enough that inventory would clear before the replacement was to be launched, then there would be no reason to lower prices. The only reason to lower prices is if demand (sales) are too low to clear inventory in time.

Perhaps the inroduction of the FF was not anticipated when the production run of the FA77 ended in December, 2012, so excess inventory is not a function of demand disequilibrium, but rather a function of an unplanned market disruption (the decision to introduce a replacement lens, which is unrelated to price elasticity of demand for the FA77). Given we're not at this time seeing sale pricing of FA43 and FA31, perhaps the remaining stock of those lenses is better matched to the anticipated remaining time before replacement - or perhaps only the FA77 will be updated - maybe it's inventory is LOWER than the 43 and 31, so it is feasible to exhaust the supply and replace it NOW, while they'll need to WAIT to redo the other two. There are many possible explanations.

---------- Post added 08-15-15 at 12:42 PM ----------

Virtually being the key word. There is a reason some lenses are on discount and other (D-FA* 70-200mm) are not. The sale isn't simply a matter of charity on the part of retailers. They want to clear inventory.

??? The D-FA* 70~200/2.8 does not yet exist as a product ready for sale. And B&H inventory that they want to clear might be 3 of 10 lenses they hold in regular stock - we don't know. Perhaps B&H wants to raise cash for use buying K-1's and D-FA* 70~200's - and selling a few FA77's is akin to taking some money out of the bank.

Simple economic theories are just that - but in practice the world is complex.

[EDIT:] PentaxIsDoomed™ Pentax Lens Deals - August. Looks like Demand is lackluster for the entire lens catalog.

---

Last edited by monochrome; 08-15-2015 at 03:18 PM.

[Pål Jensen]

The DA* 16-50 F2.8 is 595 gram and the famous FA* 28-70 F2.8 is 800 gram. I don't expect the new 24-70 will be lighter or comparable in weight to that 16-50.

I fear it is the size of the new Nikon 24-70/2.8. The weight of the 28-45 for the 645 is 1.4kg!!!
It seems like new lenses designed for tomorrows sensor will be massive....

---------- Post added 08-15-15 at 11:00 PM ----------

Pentax is able to command a premium because it works natively with 6 million Pentax lenses.

Six million? I think it is closer to 24 million. I once got a list of total production numbers (late 90's/early 00's who remembers?) of the various lens series. Unfortunately, I can't remember them now, except for 1.7 million of the short lived F-series.
[I remember printing out the mail so I got it somewhere]

[patarok]

I need Phase Detection AF in Live-View mode on my FF just like on the good old K-5II, if there isn't some real innovation built into it making my demand unnecessary.(like a kind of that "Sony A99 - AF System" - but still with a flippy mirror...
And i would love to see a histogram even when i am not in Live-View mode ... Pentax should add this feature to a future firmware update for the K-3... This could be implemented as a fifth Statusdisplay-Option beside "Normal", "Level", "OFF" and "Compass", i really see no problem to drag those icons together and fit in an icon for "Histogram"...

[jatrax]

And i would love to see a histogram even when i am not in Live-View mode ... Pentax should add this feature to a future firmware update for the K-3... This could be implemented as a fifth Statusdisplay-Option beside "Normal", "Level", "OFF" and "Compass", i really see no problem to drag those icons together and fit in an icon for "Histogram"...

How would this work? With the mirror down how would the sensor be able to generate a histogram?

[zeitlos]

@kenspo: in your opinion, is there a realistic chance to see an electronic viewfinder anytime soon in a Pentax FF (and/or APS-C) camera?

[D1N0]

I am not Kenspo but I would say. NO!

[rawr]

I am not Kenspo but I would say. NO!

There may be several Pentax patents related to hybrid EVF/OVF (eg US2007/0019945) that they haven't really put to use anywhere yet. Pic related:



Maybe some of this tech will find it's home in the FF.

[noelpolar]

How would this work? With the mirror down how would the sensor be able to generate a histogram?

Translucent mirror....?

With regard to discounted new lenses...... it's a bit of a US centric thing...... as for non US residents they are basically not discounted (based on 2012 ish) due to the high $US dollar..... so Ricoh may not be taking that big of a hit.

[Pål Jensen]

How would this work? With the mirror down how would the sensor be able to generate a histogram?

A smaller, secondary sensor in the finder for this purpose only?
Probably not worth the cost and hassle though....

[thibs]

A smaller, secondary sensor in the finder for this purpose only?
Probably not worth the cost and hassle though....

I think that's what Oly or Sony did at the time and the ovf was ridiculous because of it.

[Mikesul]

Demand may or may not be reflected in new lens price reductions but the prices of used k mount lenses seem to have been plummeting for the last several months. Desirable lenses at very low prices seem to go unsold for long periods in the forum marketplace. Perhaps I am remembering the past situation incorrectly but there really does seem to be a significant decrease in interest in buying used Pentax lenses. I hope I am wrong so please convince me.

[RonHendriks1966]

Demand may or may not be reflected in new lens price reductions but the prices of used k mount lenses seem to have been plummeting for the last several months. Desirable lenses at very low prices seem to go unsold for long periods in the forum marketplace. Perhaps I am remembering the past situation incorrectly but there really does seem to be a significant decrease in interest in buying used Pentax lenses. I hope I am wrong so please convince me.

You are not wrong, but not all lenses are the same.