Originally posted by GlassJunkie My first predictions on the long tele were a bit off, due to the FF/ length/ glass required skew I didn't see... so my 138-380 (67mm) APSC thought became 150-400 (86mm) and FF (in real life)... So much for that idea....
As a lifelong student of global Biz and having worked at the top one of the great Japanese firms as a gaijin, IHMO we are watching a war come (in VERY slow motion). RICOH is a truly well run company, with exceptional leadership. Kicked Canon and Kyocera quite a bit, chewed up Xerox and other wannabes (quality and performance). Pentax was a natural deal. Ricoh will have similar capabilities and offerings as Canon (copiers/ optics/ photo, reproduction, etc.. Nikon will shrink. In 15 years, Nikon will look like Hasselblad and Mamiya. Olympus and SONY (cameras) will have different businesses/owners or be gone...
The Ricoh-Pentax CEO was remarkably blunt when he said they had a plan and strategy to become #1 in DSLR/High end in two steps over the next 20 years or so. The majors have share, and brand (at significant costs). Nikon has MASSIVE financial problems (as does SONY Camera- not sensors), and a major piece of a specialized niche. Canon has diversified economic power but (like Nikon) a big COGS/SGA problem in photo. Advertising/ promotion costs for them are silly high... Pentax learned by watching them play leapfrog, while charting course... Then Ricoh stepped in....
I see RP leadership comments suggesting:
Seizing the leadership position in high end APSc (wildlife, etc. as a market focus already stated). Their dominance in high end APSc lenses is more powerful than some think. More bang, less weight, less cost. As the "follower" they have accelerated innovations during the past 5-6 years. K-3 WAS a huge shock to CaNikon. A year earlier, they were singing the death of APSc and in 2014 they both had multiple iterations of their higher end APSc's. In Japanese management, this was total panic.
The empirical threat of several truths... FF has weaknesses... Size, weight, required glass, cost, processor limitations (file size driven). Now for a very scary thought... Take 4/3 pixel pitch and build a better APSC higher res sensor (36mp+) ? FF at less than 50MP becomes the landscape/architects/ real estate and boater's sales rep's camera).
Whacko predictions anew ... Ricoh-Pentax buys Leica, SONY Camera (not sensors) or Olympus (next 3 years)... If SONY or Olympus, keep the good stuff (like ROKKOR-Old Minolta glass plants and Olympus medical), dump the rest after refreshing small and MILC add ons...
OK, next nonsense... Within 2 years most PTX launches an APSc at 32mp or better, raising the FF bar to 64MP, which bounces up against glass/coatings again. APSC size/cost for performance shoves FF hard to an extreme niche (4 years). CPUs get fast enough and pattern recognition software advances to allow a "mobile" but effective iteration of pixel shift 4 years). OVFs end up with sufficient technology to measure eye movement to lock a single/packet of AF sensors for wildlife, basically driving fast moving AF by where the eye is looking. Will take 10 years to perfect that one beyond a gimmick...
Just a few ramblings
Oddly, outside of the merger stuff which who knows, I would tend to agree. Nothing worse for Nikon and Canon to have a multi million dollar marketing campaign for Full Frame As The Future have it's knees kicked out from under it by the K-3. It blows me away the amount of camera I have for such a low price. Nikon and Canon were forced to respond.
I wonder if the Sony Mirrorless As The Future will face the same reality. Processing power is not inexpensive, and a viable EVF requires all the processing power that a K-3 has just to show you what you are shooting at, then add on the other stuff. I can see some really interesting hybrid OVF/EVF schemes that would take the best of both worlds.
A low noise 32mp APSC would be great for wildlife shooting. The actual reach of the K-3 vs the K-5 is remarkable due to higher resolution. A full frame would be of interest to me only due to the noise characteristics, at the cost of resolution.
The new Sony chips have fast readout characteristics that are of interest for video. Could Pentax be seeing that same speed as a way to have pixel shifting viable for handheld shooting of moving objects? 1/250 or so, even the sync speed would open up interesting possibilities.