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09-30-2015, 04:37 AM   #691
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
One can slice and dice this in minute detail but the effects are perhaps limited to mainland Japan? Where I live (and I suspect through much of Europe and perhaps North America too) Pentax has a presence so modest that they could launch a 120mpx solid gold chicken tied to a space rocket and not all that many beyond existing Pentax owners would pick up on it enough to go "wow, interesting, chick it out". Marketing, sir, marketing, endorsements, relations with retailers, brand ambassadors who command the respect and esteem of their peers. Without a bit more of that one is just counting grains of sand. I really hope Ricoh use the arrival of an FF to announce some overseas service centres (or, anyway, boosted pro support stuff) and a general upping of the game of Making Your Presence Known. Otherwise, the new FF may be a camera that does well in Japan but kind of disappears in the rest of the world because it was never given a chance to appear in the first place. Everyone wants it to do well but likely it'll need a little help.
That is highly unlikely. Ricoh seems to be quite happy the way things are, or they would have changed them. Let Sony compete high-volume, high expense, Dealer Agreement, endorsement, TV Ad (outside Japan) with CaNikon. RoW is just incremental volume.

09-30-2015, 05:38 AM   #692
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
That is highly unlikely. Ricoh seems to be quite happy the way things are, or they would have changed them. Let Sony compete high-volume, high expense, Dealer Agreement, endorsement, TV Ad (outside Japan) with CaNikon. RoW is just incremental volume.
This looks very shaky ground to me.These arguments could easily be turned on their head and read as ex post facto justification. As in, "Yes, we are selling less than we hoped, our market share is declining and we keep having to make cuts in the price of our products to move stock, but running so lean outside of Japan that people question our brands' viability and hardly notice them is part of a strategic masterplan to become a major player in the worldwide imaging industry". I don't buy it. One could say, for example, that an explanation just as likely is that rapid changes in the camera market over the past 5-6 years have caused Ricoh to give up most of the ambitions they may have had for Pentax and to keep things ticking over while they figure out what to do next. Any FF is not going to get off the shelf and sell all by itself. Of course I don't know, but then nor do you
09-30-2015, 06:03 AM   #693
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
This looks very shaky ground to me.These arguments could easily be turned on their head and read as ex post facto justification. As in, "Yes, we are selling less than we hoped, our market share is declining and we keep having to make cuts in the price of our products to move stock, but running so lean outside of Japan that people question our brands' viability and hardly notice them is part of a strategic masterplan to become a major player in the worldwide imaging industry". I don't buy it. One could say, for example, that an explanation just as likely is that rapid changes in the camera market over the past 5-6 years have caused Ricoh to give up most of the ambitions they may have had for Pentax and to keep things ticking over while they figure out what to do next. Any FF is not going to get off the shelf and sell all by itself. Of course I don't know, but then nor do you
I think Ricoh over estimated a few things. We know from interviews that it took a lot longer to integrate Pentax and Ricoh than they expected. They are probably close to 2 years behind schedule. If Ricoh just wanted to be a niche camera company then they never would have bought Pentax. They could have kept evolving the GR system and stayed a niche company. Ricoh wants to be mainstream and compete directly with Canon, Nikon, & Sony. Ricoh has a lot riding on the FF body, so I'm willing to bet that it will be an awesome camera.

I'm just worried they will follow Sony and miss the market. When Sony rolled out the A900 it was really an awesome camera at the time, but Sony missed the boat on the HD video/DSLR revolution and the Canon 5DII stole the show. The Canon 5DII wasn't a better camera for still photography, but it has this new video feature and the industry went crazy about it.
09-30-2015, 06:42 AM   #694
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I don't know everything, but I do know good Japanese investment bankers estimated the cost to make Pentax globally competitive with CaNikon on their terms (doing all the things we think they should do to compete with CaNikon) would be enough to reduce Enterprise earnings by 10% a year over three years, beginning FY2014. That forms the basis for my regular posts that Ricoh has chosen a different business model for Pentax.

09-30-2015, 06:54 AM   #695
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
I think Ricoh over estimated a few things. We know from interviews that it took a lot longer to integrate Pentax and Ricoh than they expected. They are probably close to 2 years behind schedule. If Ricoh just wanted to be a niche camera company then they never would have bought Pentax. They could have kept evolving the GR system and stayed a niche company. Ricoh wants to be mainstream and compete directly with Canon, Nikon, & Sony. Ricoh has a lot riding on the FF body, so I'm willing to bet that it will be an awesome camera.

I'm just worried they will follow Sony and miss the market. When Sony rolled out the A900 it was really an awesome camera at the time, but Sony missed the boat on the HD video/DSLR revolution and the Canon 5DII stole the show. The Canon 5DII wasn't a better camera for still photography, but it has this new video feature and the industry went crazy about it.
This is something I really agree with. If you are a company that is happy to remain a niche player, you don't need to go through the expense and pain of an acquisition to maintain a token presence in the market. That's why I was so pleased that Ricoh bought Pentax. It meant they had to be serious about Pentax, or otherwise what was the point?

What I disagree with is the notion that Ricoh is years behind schedule because the full frame camera didn't come as soon as some people expected. It isn't like Ricoh did nothing in that time. They turned the Q round to be a relative success. They released the K-3, which improved almost every system in the camera. That's no small feat, since people on this forum were saying that the K-5 didn't leave any room for improvement. They released the GR, which was a great leap over its predecessor and won the battle of publicity over its Nikon rival. Then the 645z came and seems to be a great success.

It seems to me that Ricoh's stance has been to strengthen their excellent existing but underperforming product lines before they embark on a major new line of products. And I'd be willing to bet that their full frame offer is better thought out than the Sony A900 was.
09-30-2015, 06:55 AM   #696
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I don't know everything, but I do know good Japanese investment bankers estimated the cost to make Pentax globally competitive with CaNikon on their terms (doing all the things we think they should do to compete with CaNikon) would be enough to reduce Enterprise earnings by 10% a year over three years, beginning FY2014. That forms the basis for my regular posts that Ricoh has chosen a different business model for Pentax.
Hence the lower prices and deep discounts we see regularly from Pentax. They are forced to even lose money just to hang on to the current users. The delay in FF release has sent a lot of loyal Pentaxians to others brands. I guess people get tired of empty promises at some point and have to get on with their lives.

With the current cutthroat environment in the camera business, to even retain one's loyal base is a monumental challenge, let alone stealing market share from someone else.

I guess that is good for people who decided to stick around. We are going to be rewarded with lower than expected FF prices that are going to surprise many.
09-30-2015, 07:04 AM   #697
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QuoteOriginally posted by Uluru Quote
One more ingenious stunt (*) like that hey will fall below 3% of the DSLR market. Then how will they justify any new development of anything relying on what userbase?
Pentax is in dslr already well below 2 % marketshare.
09-30-2015, 07:11 AM   #698
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Pentax is in dslr already well below 2 % marketshare.
Due to the lack of advertising and availability in the US would be my guess.

09-30-2015, 07:13 AM   #699
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Pentax is in dslr already well below 2 % marketshare.
For bean counters, 2% market share says cut your loses right now before you sink the ship (Ricoh). Or maybe Ricoh has deep enough pockets to lose money on Pentax and keep it alive just to be a player (thorn on the side of the other brands). Small DSLRs (K3 and such) are struggling with market share but 645Z and the GR are thriving.

I hope Ricoh does not pull the plug on Pentax because I just bought some more lenses in the anticipation of the FF. I do not want to end up with a bunch of gear that no one would want if Pentax goes under.
09-30-2015, 07:43 AM   #700
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Pentax is profitable and growing. Nikon is not profitable. Sony is not profitable. Canon is marginally profitable. Ricoh intentionally has avoided the capital investment and inventory overhang drag caused by the others' having built out to supply the conversion to digital (2004 - 2014). As dSLR units gradually decline to 2004 levels CaNiSony will repeatedly write down excess P&E, try to raise capital by making dilutive equity offerings and systematically underperform expectations.

Pentax will be much more likely to survive in its current form than Sony or Nikon.

Last edited by monochrome; 09-30-2015 at 07:49 AM.
09-30-2015, 07:55 AM   #701
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Pentax is in dslr already well below 2 % marketshare.
I would really like to see some data about this. I mean data, not assumptions.

---------- Post added 30-09-15 at 05:57 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by btnapa Quote
For bean counters, 2% market share says cut your loses right now before you sink the ship (Ricoh). Or maybe Ricoh has deep enough pockets to lose money on Pentax and keep it alive just to be a player (thorn on the side of the other brands). Small DSLRs (K3 and such) are struggling with market share but 645Z and the GR are thriving.

I hope Ricoh does not pull the plug on Pentax because I just bought some more lenses in the anticipation of the FF. I do not want to end up with a bunch of gear that no one would want if Pentax goes under.
Which losses are you talking about?
Ricoh doesn't give numbers, but they're saying that Ricoh Imaging products are contributing to profits.
09-30-2015, 08:03 AM   #702
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I would really like to see some data about this. I mean data, not assumptions.

---------- Post added 30-09-15 at 05:57 PM ----------


Which losses are you talking about?
Ricoh doesn't give numbers, but they're saying that Ricoh Imaging products are contributing to profits.
We all would like to see numbers, but don't get any.


On the profit. Yes they report contributie to profit! But they also report a loss in one quarter due to write-off on old stock (last year probably on K-30). This years last quarter we can expect a write-off on K-S1 unsold stock. The question to this is, wich number is the biggest?
09-30-2015, 08:07 AM   #703
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
And I'd be willing to bet that their [Ricoh's] full frame offer is better thought out than the Sony A900 was.
Yes, I'd be willing to bet that too!
09-30-2015, 08:09 AM - 1 Like   #704
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
We all would like to see numbers, but don't get any.


On the profit. Yes they report contributie to profit! But they also report a loss in one quarter due to write-off on old stock (last year probably on K-30). This years last quarter we can expect a write-off on K-S1 unsold stock. The question to this is, wich number is the biggest?
Ron, K-30 is 3 1/2 year old unsaleable inventory. It is Hoya product. K-S1 is still selling in retail channels and was likely a much smaller run since it was an intentional experiment, not a main-line product.

But whatever. You are a successful professional women's sports photographer. I'm a hobbyist who should be doing my real job. So you would know better.
09-30-2015, 08:17 AM   #705
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Pentax will be much more likely to survive in its current form than Sony or Nikon.
Well, when companies have a lot of "fat" such as Canon and Nikon, they can downsize a lot before they have to shutdown their operations.
If Pentax would have to downsize, I don't know what would be the effect on them.
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