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09-30-2015, 03:03 PM - 1 Like   #736
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
But you don't just do opinions, Ron, you do assertions without evidence - profitability, 3% market share, K-30 writedowns.
It's not all just assumption.

A 3 % marketshare would mean selling over 300.000 dslr's. With Japan as the biggest market, a claim by a Pentax rep, and selling there some 55.000 dslr's camera's makes it not very likely.

I'm not to good in keeping track of every bit of evidence, but then again, i'm not to interested in it, since i'm not on trial.

09-30-2015, 03:23 PM   #737
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Pentax Confirms Full-Frame Plans at CP+ - Pentax Rumors | PentaxForums.com We will see in 2016.
Pentax was waiting to insert their FF as upgrade path of their most advanced APSC (K5IIs, K-3). In 2013, they could not say "given the room for IQ improvement that APSC can still provide (K-3) and our market share, at the moment, we can't break-even with a FF camera". So they bought time by saying "we will do a FF " to avoid Pentax users to switch to another mount. That means that their primary goal is to exploit the k mount user base , and they don't have a plan to acquire any Canikon customers. So their approach is to get new customers with the entry level APSC and then channel them up the product line. I guess they expect to sell the FF as a replacement for K-5, K5II,K5IIs, K-3 and K-3II. Then the delay makes sense. If the FF is price as much as three K-5/K3, then 30% of the K-5/K-3 user base is even to generate the same revenue (except if a number of K-5 owners bought a FF from another brand), then they need more than 30% conversion rate. They are nice, they force us to exhaust our K-5s or K-3 and save money because they allow us to replace it with a FF. The only difficulty with this is that photographers are like tomatoes, they don't get mature all at the same time, so the ones who were mature for a FF too early probably went elsewhere. The remaining Pentax crew being still there.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 09-30-2015 at 03:38 PM.
09-30-2015, 04:58 PM - 1 Like   #738
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Well, when companies have a lot of "fat" such as Canon and Nikon, they can downsize a lot before they have to shutdown their operations.
If Pentax would have to downsize, I don't know what would be the effect on them.
A good friend of mine was "nicely asked" to take a retirement package from Canon. He has been a long time employee. As a matter of fact he was the one who turned me on to Canon some 15 years ago. He was not happy with what Canon had become and was looking forward to leaving anyway. Now tell me if Canon is not hurting. I think they are looking for greener pastures and are letting go of people to lean up and get ready for the real hurt that is brought on by Sony.

Ricoh/Pentax is just a footnote in these battles. Pentax numbers are so small that no one is even paying any attention. I see an opportunity here for Pentax to catch everyone off guard, like they did with 645Z.
09-30-2015, 04:59 PM   #739
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
I won a botte of wine on a bet that Pentax wouldn't bring a fullframe this year (at photokina) and you can think of that being a negative attitude.......But for me that was a realistic one.
You won that bet by chance - the Ricoh Imaging's Head of Development would have lost to you, because the full frame was indeed planned for this year.

Your claim - which I'm quoting below because it's not 3% but:
QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Pentax is in dslr already well below 2 % marketshare.
That's not a fact yet it's stated as one.
The problem is, we don't have data; even the Japanese market statistics is based on data obtained from a selection of retailers. Lacking something better I can accept 4.5% as an approximation for the Japanese market. I will not accept the assumption that Pentax sells more DSLR units in Japan than in the rest of the world; yet that assumption is a central point in your reasoning. You are basing it on a translated comment which was actually referring to Pentax/Ricoh cameras, without singling out DSLRs.

1% market share means about 100000 DSLR units per year or an average of about 8300-8400 DSLR units per month. I don't know the average production; but I do know the initial production volume - was 15,000 units/month for the K-S2 and 10,000 units/month for the K-3II. Half of the cameras required to reach 1% would have been made if the initial production volume is maintained for 2 months. And that's ignoring the sales of old models - K-3, K-5II, K-S1, even K-50. Even the 645Z should contribute for about 400 units per month.

So 1% - or something close to 1% doesn't seems realistic to me.

09-30-2015, 06:56 PM   #740
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
The problem is, we don't have data; even the Japanese market statistics is based on data obtained from a selection of retailers.
That's true. The "real" data are anybody's guess, but I think that BCN's data are useful to estimate the actual market share in Japan. BCN, a market research firm, covers half of Japan's top 10 electronics stores in terms of sales. According to that, Pentax's recent share was 4.5% in DSLR.

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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I will not accept the assumption that Pentax sells more DSLR units in Japan than in the rest of the world.
According to Ricoh's financial report, domestic sales in "Other" segment which mainly consists of digital cameras exceed more than 80% in total in the recent quarter.

http://www.ricoh.com/IR/financial_data/financial_result/data/28/q1_report.pdf

Pentax is a heavily domestic-oriented company unlike Canon or Nikon which sells 80% in overseas markets.
09-30-2015, 07:27 PM   #741
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QuoteOriginally posted by Daikokuya Quote
That's true. The "real" data are anybody's guess, but I think that BCN's data are useful to estimate the actual market share in Japan. BCN, a market research firm, covers half of Japan's top 10 electronics stores in terms of sales. According to that, Pentax's recent share was 4.5% in DSLR.

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According to Ricoh's financial report, domestic sales in "Other" segment which mainly consists of digital cameras exceed more than 80% in total in the recent quarter.

http://www.ricoh.com/IR/financial_data/financial_result/data/28/q1_report.pdf

Pentax is a heavily domestic-oriented company unlike Canon or Nikon which sells 80% in overseas markets.
Other also includes security cameras. Pentax I think has a strong presence in that market in Japan - especially institutional / government / police / commercial due to the Ghostless coatings.
09-30-2015, 09:35 PM   #742
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote

You can easily spend $10000 in camera gear that is not reusable with AF on other brands of products. So, if your favorite brand does things that do not inspire confidence, the question is where to put the $10000.
Sure, that's neither new nor specific to Pentax. It's not only since yesterday that other brands got more glas and better AF. So for those people needing this the decision should be clear. Thats the way it it for now. What really sucks is the way these questions are turned into a "do or die" for everybody in this forums.


QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
What interests me is how to deal with that.
Again: if I was a pro in need of a FF now than I would maybe sell my gear like Ron and move on to Nikons D750. I realize that that's not a decision that comes easily, accepted. But then I would ask: why now? After all this Hoya-Ricoh-transition mess my decision should have been taken little bit earlier I guess. I'm not going to deny that there might be problems Ricoh is facing, not at all, but since nobody of you knows exactly whats is going to happen it's not quite appropriate to only concentrate on the negative. I only ask to stop this negative tonality and mix the personal and the factual.
09-30-2015, 09:40 PM - 2 Likes   #743
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10-01-2015, 12:02 AM   #744
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QuoteOriginally posted by rullrich Quote
Again: if I was a pro in need of a FF now than I would maybe sell my gear like Ron and move on to Nikons D750. I realize that that's not a decision that comes easily, accepted. But then I would ask: why now? After all this Hoya-Ricoh-transition mess my decision should have been taken little bit earlier I guess. I'm not going to deny that there might be problems Ricoh is facing, not at all, but since nobody of you knows exactly whats is going to happen it's not quite appropriate to only concentrate on the negative. I only ask to stop this negative tonality and mix the personal and the factual.
If you are a pro and your are sure that having proper FF gear will make a noticable difference in your capacity to make money, they you should buy it as fast as you can afford it. If you have been pro for 5 years, that should have been 5 years ago.

Now is it the reality? The FF will provide less deph of field associate with lower noise and bigger lenses. If your client ask for it (could be in some cases), then sure buy, but then be sure your should the brand that you client ask too.

For the many cases were client just ask for great photo, the idea is that the better gear allow you to show noticably better photo on your website, on your porforlio. The idea is that when you do a job, it make your clients noticably happier with your services and that the gear help buy the reputation.

To me this is not obvious. There could be a benefit for wide angle but the real winners here are not FF camera but mirorless camera where they have innexpensive great wide angle lenses. There could be a benefit of low light vs deph of field meaning your task might also be more difficult to ensure the right subject is in focus.

For weddings, I'd say the argumentation is really there. You don't have always enough light but fast lenses can as important as bigger sensor. More because you'll need to use zooms in many case and most zoom are limited to f/2.8, you get a real benefit in subject isolation and high iso performance.
10-01-2015, 12:28 AM - 3 Likes   #745
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Nicolas, I don't want to argue about the pros and cons of FF vs. APSC. I'm not a pro anyway but a learning amateur who's looking forward to new cameras, even if I don't know the specs yet. So I happily agree with what you said above: it depends on what You have to do and what youre requirements are. I just don't get why every thread in this subforum (and maybe in the FF as well) must turn into an apodictic discourse about FF, the complete incompetence of Ricoh in general and so on. I could imagine that a lot of silent members like me find all this a little bit ridiculous. And for pros: there should be a life without Pentax, but maybe PF isn't just the proper place to let the world know. And this isn't meant to deny their grief.
10-01-2015, 12:55 AM   #746
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QuoteOriginally posted by Daikokuya Quote
That's true. The "real" data are anybody's guess, but I think that BCN's data are useful to estimate the actual market share in Japan. BCN, a market research firm, covers half of Japan's top 10 electronics stores in terms of sales. According to that, Pentax's recent share was 4.5% in DSLR.

???????(????) | ????????? | ??????????No1???????? BCN AWARD



According to Ricoh's financial report, domestic sales in "Other" segment which mainly consists of digital cameras exceed more than 80% in total in the recent quarter.

http://www.ricoh.com/IR/financial_data/financial_result/data/28/q1_report.pdf

Pentax is a heavily domestic-oriented company unlike Canon or Nikon which sells 80% in overseas markets.
Yes, there's a good chance that BCN's statistics are accurate. But it's not like the participating stores were chosen to be statistically representative... from my understanding (a very limited one, helped by Google Translate) only 22 retailers are participating. Major retailers, that's true, but perhaps Pentax sells better through more specialized channels?

"Others" - "The manufacturing and sales of digital cameras, financing business and logistics services provided through the Company’s subsidiaries are included in this business segment." (from Securities Report for FY2015)
It appears very likely that financing and logistics are Japanese-centric business.
10-01-2015, 02:21 AM   #747
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QuoteOriginally posted by rullrich Quote
Nicolas, I don't want to argue about the pros and cons of FF vs. APSC. I'm not a pro anyway but a learning amateur who's looking forward to new cameras, even if I don't know the specs yet. So I happily agree with what you said above: it depends on what You have to do and what youre requirements are. I just don't get why every thread in this subforum (and maybe in the FF as well) must turn into an apodictic discourse about FF, the complete incompetence of Ricoh in general and so on. I could imagine that a lot of silent members like me find all this a little bit ridiculous. And for pros: there should be a life without Pentax, but maybe PF isn't just the proper place to let the world know. And this isn't meant to deny their grief.
It seems a sad truth that many threads are moving to similar discourse...... no real choice but to unsubscribe really. Hopefully many positive threads still to come!
10-01-2015, 04:56 AM   #748
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I'm out.
10-01-2015, 07:27 AM   #749
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I'm out.
Me too.
10-01-2015, 09:58 AM   #750
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