[Mistral75]

(...)
Plus ça change…

...plus c'est pareil !

[NZ_Ross]

plus c'est pareil !

C'est la vie

For the Americans - use Google translate if you have to....

[RobA_Oz]

C'est la vie .

La vie? Ça plane pour moi…

[Kharan]

Pentax is profitable and growing. Nikon is not profitable. Sony is not profitable. Canon is marginally profitable. Ricoh intentionally has avoided the capital investment and inventory overhang drag caused by the others' having built out to supply the conversion to digital (2004 - 2014). As dSLR units gradually decline to 2004 levels CaNiSony will repeatedly write down excess P&E, try to raise capital by making dilutive equity offerings and systematically underperform expectations.

Pentax will be much more likely to survive in its current form than Sony or Nikon.

I'm coming late to this discussion, but that's WRONG. Sony finally turned the tide this year, and has been making good progress. While their shipments declined a little, their operating profit rose over 10%, which is extraordinary considering the market. Also, Nikon posted a profit for this quarter, and still gained some market share. However, it's all been thanks to cost cutting, and that can only go so far. Olympus and Samsung are actually the two companies hurting the most right now.

Pentax? Damned if we know.

[NZ_Ross]

La vie? Ça plane pour moi…

Reminds me of a very silly song....

You Tube

You Tube

[RobA_Oz]

Reminds me of a very silly song....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVDfmn_TMkI

Hard to get out of your head, once you've heard it, but it was a punk parody.

Speaking of which, back to the thread…

[Mistral75]

Hard to get out of your head, once you've heard it, but it was a punk parody.

Speaking of which, back to the thread…

The FF Pentax will be the parody of a punk camera?

[RobA_Oz]

The FF Pentax will be the parody of a punk camera?

Interesting concept, but I fear you've been reading Jacques Derrida, or Monty Python, perhaps.

[NZ_Ross]

The FF Pentax will be the parody of a punk camera?

That could possibly be the most accurate prediction on the FF Pentax that we have seen on this thread

---------- Post added 04-10-15 at 10:46 AM ----------

Interesting concept, but I fear you've been reading Jacques Derrida, or Monty Python, perhaps.

I am sure that there will be some claiming the FF Pentax is a 'Norwegian Blue'

[rullrich]

I think that is one of the things I find interesting about the commentary on this thread and PF generally. There are professional photographers here and there are amateurs...

It will be interesting to see the comments of the professionals here once the Pentax FF arrives, and whether they believe it is a system they can invest in.

+1
Great post that put's the discussion in perspective!

[Rondec]

I'm coming late to this discussion, but that's WRONG. Sony finally turned the tide this year, and has been making good progress. While their shipments declined a little, their operating profit rose over 10%, which is extraordinary considering the market. Also, Nikon posted a profit for this quarter, and still gained some market share. However, it's all been thanks to cost cutting, and that can only go so far. Olympus and Samsung are actually the two companies hurting the most right now.

Pentax? Damned if we know.

The issue is if the camera market is maturing and companies need to cut production in order to maintain profits, how easily can they do that?

Mirrorless has benefited significantly from the fact that early mirrorless cameras were pretty poor in certain respects -- not great EVFs, poor tracking -- and so people felt pushed to upgrade on a more routine basis than do SLR users at this point. On the other hand, mirrorless cameras are probably reaching the point that SLRs did three or four years ago, where there are no revolutionary improvements, just incremental adjustments. If you own an A7r II, what would Sony have to stuff in to the III to make you want to buy it? And while Sony is making a profit on their top end cameras right now, their model also seems to depend on really frequent updates and releases. If that market stagnates, even a little, they could end up in some trouble.

[Mikesul]

Interesting, thoughtful post, Rondec. About the only thing I wish the A7RII had was ruggedness and sealing comparable to the K-3. It may be close to that now but I am uncomfortable , perhaps unfairly, about it in extreme conditions. Other than that I doubt there will be any upgrade in the near future which would make a huge improvement in the pictures it produces. Sony may intend to rely for continued and increasing revenue on lens sales since that is an area which it seems to be developing rather quickly with, according to some accounts, 6 new lenses due in the coming year.

[RonHendriks1966]

The issue is if the camera market is maturing and companies need to cut production in order to maintain profits, how easily can they do that?

Mirrorless has benefited significantly from the fact that early mirrorless cameras were pretty poor in certain respects -- not great EVFs, poor tracking -- and so people felt pushed to upgrade on a more routine basis than do SLR users at this point. On the other hand, mirrorless cameras are probably reaching the point that SLRs did three or four years ago, where there are no revolutionary improvements, just incremental adjustments. If you own an A7r II, what would Sony have to stuff in to the III to make you want to buy it? And while Sony is making a profit on their top end cameras right now, their model also seems to depend on really frequent updates and releases. If that market stagnates, even a little, they could end up in some trouble.

Looking at the cipa figures of augustus there is a good look at how 2015 is running.

• P&S will be down by 6 miljon camera's, but that is not of any concern for Ricoh.
• Japan is down 10 % in dslr and that does hurt Ricoh, being the homeland.
• milc is maybe not the biggest issue, but is growing. No idea if this means something for Q.
• Europe is still in financial trouble and has a shrinking dslr market and spends less on each unit they buy. This is the second market for Ricoh.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201508_e.pdf

[falconeye]

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201508_e.pdf

Always interesting to look at.

I found it most interesting that the "migration" of DSLR to mirrorless seems pretty strong in Europe now while that party seems to be over already in Japan, with mirrorless loosing stronger than DSLR.

I assume that in the end, we see a battle of Canon vs. Nikon vs. Sony more than DSLR vs. mirrorless. With Ricoh, Olympus, Panasonic, Fuji, Samsung and Leica being spectators rather than participants in that battle.

[reh321]

The issue is if the camera market is maturing and companies need to cut production in order to maintain profits, how easily can they do that?

I think there is a second issue ... implicit in your second paragraph

Mirrorless has benefited significantly from the fact that early mirrorless cameras were pretty poor in certain respects -- not great EVFs, poor tracking -- and so people felt pushed to upgrade on a more routine basis than do SLR users at this point. On the other hand, mirrorless cameras are probably reaching the point that SLRs did three or four years ago, where there are no revolutionary improvements, just incremental adjustments. If you own an A7r II, what would Sony have to stuff in to the III to make you want to buy it? And while Sony is making a profit on their top end cameras right now, their model also seems to depend on really frequent updates and releases. If that market stagnates, even a little, they could end up in some trouble.

Have we reached a point of equilibrium within DSLR and MILC markets ... in other words, have people stopped moving between the two markets? Personally, I'm not sure. There are areas, such as photography at ceremonies, perhaps even including weddings, where a (quiet) MILC has an advantage of the "clacking" of a DSLR, and I'm not sure whether newcomers (those not already committed to DSLR by a significant investment in lenses) might be drawn more to MILC than to DSLR. If that does happen, it might be a slow trend, but it could still affect market share and profitability over time. I hope Pentax retains, at least, their Q foot in the MILC market, so they will have the basic technology needed to move bigger products over if they get too squeezed in a declining DSLR market.