[falconeye]

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201508_e.pdf

Always interesting to look at.

I found it most interesting that the "migration" of DSLR to mirrorless seems pretty strong in Europe now while that party seems to be over already in Japan, with mirrorless loosing stronger than DSLR.

I assume that in the end, we see a battle of Canon vs. Nikon vs. Sony more than DSLR vs. mirrorless. With Ricoh, Olympus, Panasonic, Fuji, Samsung and Leica being spectators rather than participants in that battle.

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Last edited by falconeye; 10-04-2015 at 03:01 PM.

[reh321]

The issue is if the camera market is maturing and companies need to cut production in order to maintain profits, how easily can they do that?

I think there is a second issue ... implicit in your second paragraph

Mirrorless has benefited significantly from the fact that early mirrorless cameras were pretty poor in certain respects -- not great EVFs, poor tracking -- and so people felt pushed to upgrade on a more routine basis than do SLR users at this point. On the other hand, mirrorless cameras are probably reaching the point that SLRs did three or four years ago, where there are no revolutionary improvements, just incremental adjustments. If you own an A7r II, what would Sony have to stuff in to the III to make you want to buy it? And while Sony is making a profit on their top end cameras right now, their model also seems to depend on really frequent updates and releases. If that market stagnates, even a little, they could end up in some trouble.

Have we reached a point of equilibrium within DSLR and MILC markets ... in other words, have people stopped moving between the two markets? Personally, I'm not sure. There are areas, such as photography at ceremonies, perhaps even including weddings, where a (quiet) MILC has an advantage of the "clacking" of a DSLR, and I'm not sure whether newcomers (those not already committed to DSLR by a significant investment in lenses) might be drawn more to MILC than to DSLR. If that does happen, it might be a slow trend, but it could still affect market share and profitability over time. I hope Pentax retains, at least, their Q foot in the MILC market, so they will have the basic technology needed to move bigger products over if they get too squeezed in a declining DSLR market.

[Winder]

Have we reached a point of equilibrium within DSLR and MILC markets

No. MILC still has a ways to go, but I think the ceiling for mirrorless is higher unless we see some serious innovation from DSLR manufacturers. The potential of the eye-AF in AF-C is really big for the wedding and portrait shooters and anyone who photographs children will love the feature if the speed continues to improve. I've never had a mountain, moon, sunset/sunrise, waterfall or sleeping cat offer to pay me to come take a picture of them. Not to say you can't make money photographing sleeping cats, but the majority of the money is in photographing people. Feature like eye-AF and high quality facial recognition are much easier to implement and more accurate with a MILC than a DSLR.

One DSLR stronghold is sports, but with 4K or 8K we will see companies grab high quality still images from the video stream and the number of people using DSLRs for sports will decline. Yes, DSLRs can implement hybrid OVFs and other technologies, but that adds to the cost and MILC already have an advantage.

[biz-engineer]

I assume that in the end, we see a battle of Canon vs. Nikon vs. Sony more than DSLR vs. mirrorless. With Ricoh, Olympus, Panasonic, Fuji and Leica being spectators rather than participants in that battle.

Yes, most likely is and will be as you describe it. It seems that Ricoh focuses on their current K mount users' base, while Canon and Nikon compete head to head.

[Zygonyx]

Just to highlight a "pro" sector that is "fashion shooting" in Paris, as from a show i attended this week-end, here is what i saw on a sample of 30 photographers :

Canon 5D/1D : 20

Nikon D3/D4/D800 : 6

Nikon film : 1

Leica M : 2

Bessa R : 1

Btw : full frame only , no digital mirrorless (but Leica), no Pentax...

[RGlasel]

There are areas, such as photography at ceremonies, perhaps even including weddings, where a (quiet) MILC has an advantage of the "clacking" of a DSLR, and I'm not sure whether newcomers (those not already committed to DSLR by a significant investment in lenses) might be drawn more to MILC than to DSLR.

I'm not picking on you, but this comment made me think about what is truly disruptive at ceremonies and what isn't. I don't recall ever noticing shutter noises at any kind of ceremony, whether wedding, convocation, baptisim or funeral, but I have noticed people talking to each other, getting in and out of their seats, silencing their cell phones, staring at their cell phones, maneuvering their tablet in order to take pictures and kinetic activity involving children of all ages. We are living in an ADHD age, the relative quiet of electronic shutters is nothing. The appeal of mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras is nothing more than novelty; DSLR owners looking for the thrill of buying something different from what they already have and justifying the purchase after the fact. The advantages of MILCs over DSLRs are too insignificant to persuade current users of only fixed lens cameras to purchase an MILC when they can't be persuaded to purchase a DSLR.

[jatrax]

There are areas, such as photography at ceremonies, perhaps even including weddings, where a (quiet) MILC has an advantage of the "clacking" of a DSLR, and I'm not sure whether newcomers (those not already committed to DSLR by a significant investment in lenses) might be drawn more to MILC than to DSLR. If that does happen, it might be a slow trend, but it could still affect market share and profitability over time. I hope Pentax retains, at least, their Q foot in the MILC market, so they will have the basic technology needed to move bigger products over if they get too squeezed in a declining DSLR market.

I would add MILC to my bag if I did not have to buy new lenses or if there was some benefit I could get from a second camera I could not get from my DSLR. Maybe an underwater MILC like the Nikon 1 AW1. But a small MILC that used k-mount paired with DA Limited lenses would definitely get my attention as a second body. I really liked the k-01 but in the end it was not significantly smaller than the k-5 and the ergonomics (for me) were poor. A well designed k-02 would definitely be of interest to me.

[reh321]

I'm not picking on you, but this comment made me think about what is truly disruptive at ceremonies and what isn't. I don't recall ever noticing shutter noises at any kind of ceremony, whether wedding, convocation, baptisim or funeral, but I have noticed people talking to each other, getting in and out of their seats, silencing their cell phones, staring at their cell phones, maneuvering their tablet in order to take pictures and kinetic activity involving children of all ages. We are living in an ADHD age, the relative quiet of electronic shutters is nothing. The appeal of mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras is nothing more than novelty; DSLR owners looking for the thrill of buying something different from what they already have and justifying the purchase after the fact. The advantages of MILCs over DSLRs are too insignificant to persuade current users of only fixed lens cameras to purchase an MILC when they can't be persuaded to purchase a DSLR.

Apparently we are different. A few years ago I was at a small baptism, and I was acutely aware of every picture taken by someone with a DSLR. Same thing at the Madrigal Dinner I attended with my wife and mother last December. (I had taken the small point-and-shoot camera that my Q-7 replaced a few weeks later).

[Tom S.]

Apparently we are different. A few years ago I was at a small baptism, and I was acutely aware of every picture taken by someone with a DSLR. Same thing at the Madrigal Dinner I attended with my wife and mother last December. (I had taken the small point-and-shoot camera that my Q-7 replaced a few weeks later).

Were you aware because of the shutter noise or because of the flash? Shutter noise doesn't bother me, but then again, I suffer from hearing loss.

[reh321]

Were you aware because of the shutter noise or because of the flash? Shutter noise doesn't bother me, but then again, I suffer from hearing loss.

No flash in either case.

[RonHendriks1966]

Just to highlight a "pro" sector that is "fashion shooting" in Paris, as from a show i attended this week-end, here is what i saw on a sample of 30 photographers :

Canon 5D/1D : 20

Nikon D3/D4/D800 : 6

Nikon film : 1

Leica M : 2

Bessa R : 1

Btw : full frame only , no digital mirrorless (but Leica), no Pentax...

No Sony 7 series. I guess Hasselbaink is not for these events, but for studio work.

[osv]

On the other hand, mirrorless cameras are probably reaching the point that SLRs did three or four years ago, where there are no revolutionary improvements, just incremental adjustments.

the a7rii has only been out for a few weeks, the technology it utilizes is far beyond any dslr that's ever been on the market, and it's a major upgrade over the a7r in a number of ways.

i'm not sure how that could be construed as being incremental, or any kind of an evolutionary saturation point in mirrorless development?

sony didn't have to pack all that engineering into the a7rii; they could have done like canon always does, and re-use the a7r sensor with ibis and a few little tweaks, no internal 4k, etc., for the next four years.

your statements would then be more applicable.

but what happened instead was that sony really went all out with the a7rii, and gave it huge upgrades like eye tracking, the ability to af lenses from any company that can communicate electronically with the body, internal 4k, etc.

they spent major engineering $$$ to hit a home run that's rocked the high-end camera marketplace, and they did it to take market share from canikon... they have stated that market share goal a number of times.

on the other hand, i see your point, it feels like a pinnacle of sorts because it's difficult for us to imagine what serious upgrades could be made to the a7rii... 8k video maybe? etc.

[Rondec]

the a7rii has only been out for a few weeks, the technology it utilizes is far beyond any dslr that's ever been on the market, and it's a major upgrade over the a7r in a number of ways.

i'm not sure how that could be construed as being incremental, or any kind of an evolutionary saturation point in mirrorless development?

sony didn't have to pack all that engineering into the a7rii; they could have done like canon always does, and re-use the a7r sensor with ibis and a few little tweaks, no internal 4k, etc., for the next four years.

your statements would then be more applicable.

but what happened instead was that sony really went all out with the a7rii, and gave it huge upgrades like eye tracking, the ability to af lenses from any company that can communicate electronically with the body, internal 4k, etc.

they spent major engineering $$$ to hit a home run that's rocked the high-end camera marketplace, and they did it to take market share from canikon... they have stated that market share goal a number of times.

on the other hand, i see your point, it feels like a pinnacle of sorts because it's difficult for us to imagine what serious upgrades could be made to the a7rii... 8k video maybe? etc.

I don't know how revolutionary the A7r II really is in relation to similarly priced SLRs. If you currently shoot with a D810 and a Nikon 24-70 and 14-24 combo and you moved to an A7r II and a FE 24-70 and 16-35 (forgive me, but I couldn't find an f2.8 Sony zooms) would you find a huge difference in the actual image results? My feeling is that you find certain aspects of shooting a little better with one camera or with the other, but I really doubt that this "revolutionary technology" really pushes mirrorless dramatically ahead of SLRs in terms of real world usage and results.

As to using lenses from different companies, that is fine, but Sony had better focus on just getting a decent FE lens line up out. Selling Nikon and Canon lenses doesn't seem like a good goal for them.

Be that as it may, my point was mainly that mirrorless cameras are hitting the point where there are fewer easy features to add to new cameras and the development cycle will tend to space out and existing users will tend to space out their new mirrorless purchases.

[pathdoc]

osv, have you ever considered seeking employment with Sony's marketing division? Or are you already there?

[biz-engineer]

No Sony 7 series. I guess Hasselbaink is not for these events, but for studio work.

It really works to have a big one.

When I was in Venice, I shot either with the DA70 ltd and the Tamy 70-200. When I used the Tamy 70-200, models came to pose for me , aking me if I was a pro. When I was with the 70ltd, I just looked like a tourist. The truth is the photos taken with the 70lt @f2.4 look better and sharper than the Tamy @70mm/f3.5 .

I should buy an old MF body and screw mount my K-3 on top of it.

---------- Post added 04-10-15 at 23:57 ----------

Just to highlight a "pro" sector that is "fashion shooting" in Paris, as from a show i attended this week-end, here is what i saw on a sample of 30 photographers : Canon 5D/1D : 20 Nikon D3/D4/D800 : 6 Nikon film : 1 Leica M : 2 Bessa R : 1 Btw : full frame only , no digital mirrorless (but Leica), no Pentax...

It's unfair, the Pentax K-3Ii has pixel shift ! We should complain to whom organized the fashion show.