[civiletti]

Local Nikon retailer is a better place for best of both world: Nikon's best AF and Sony's best sensor.

I seldom use AF.

[boriscleto]

Not me... I am only a bystander watching for the initial release of Pentax FF with lots of enthusiasm (and only if it is better than the current competitor models).

I was just making a general statement...

[Nicolas06]

Derek, you-da-man!

Your analysis is so right on. Do you work for a consulting firm? Your language is consulting/expert speak and I know companies pay big bucks for that. And I agree with your wish list.

With that said, I think the real threat is from the smart phone industry not necessarily from other camera manufacturers. Camera sales numbers are dropping because phones are offering more advanced camera functions with every new release. I know they will not replace cameras totally but you know the old adage, "the best camera is the one you have with you when the moment is right." And you know with our phones literally glued to our hands 24/7, they are bound to put a dent in the camera (still and video) industry sales.

To me you can't do anything against Smartphone except manufacturing smartphones yourself. The good thing with theses thing is that their use is so intensive that even now that it no longer possible to see any gain with the new smartphone models, people are still bound to buy some to replace the old broken one. Because usage is intensive, that still happen quite fast. And in developping country not everybody has a smartphone yet. You can sell to them.

For DSLR even couting mirorless I think the issue is different. All the people that are willing to get a fancy camera and have the money for it already brought it. The new models sure have better specs but for most people it make no difference. 12MP or 24MP or 52MP is still more than enough. AF is good enough on all models if you don't do action and otherwise you need an advenced model but theses one got the issue fixed some time ago too. Pixel shift and alike are gadget. As well as FF vs APSC... And for that last one FF has been here for years.

There no reason to buy a new fancy camera is your current one is still working. The buying rate slower drop to replacement rate and this kind of stuff can work for a dozen year if it doesn't get intensive use anyway.

In the end, the last feature that made a difference was when we switched from CCD to CMOS. The picture dynamic range and the high iso performance improved a lot. It opened new usage like low light without flash, in particular with fast primes and also single frame HDR. Since there no major new feature, nothing that can justify for most people to replace their existing camera.

The thing that can count the number of time the photosite saturated could be such a thing because you would not have to care of exposure anymore and only low light would be an issue. You could capture a 20 or 30EV picture in one shoot and this would unlock very low sensitivity mode like iso 10. Other possibility, if you gain again 2EV of low light performance, people would buy because it would improve their experience. The only issue is that this also mean more people will get this in their phones too reducing the need for DSLRs.

The rest is detail and because it evolve slowly you need many years to make a difference. Sony got 0.2-0.3 EV performance with latest FF vs the D800 that was lauched few years ago. To make it visible to 1EV, if the rate of improvements doesn't change, that 10-15 years cycle.

[jpzk]

Ricoh is after buying RED..might be a connection here. But i can't confirm, cause no one wants to talk about this bit. So this info is from others..

"RED"? As in the video camera RED ??

[D1N0]

"RED"? As in the video camera RED ??

No they want to buy the colour

[Kunzite]

That's an intriguing rumor... I won't believe it until some sort of double checking (since kenspo is unsure of this himself), it seems unlikely but not impossible - perhaps Ricoh believes their Imaging division cannot be a major competitor without a strong video presence.

[cali92rs]

Pentax is late. Pentax is generations late.

Are you talking about the transition to bayonet mount...
or autofocus....
or digital...
or full frame...

got to be more specific :P

[Winder]

This is just Dreaming of a fool. There is only one large sensor and that is not a fast reading sensor to drop out 4k or 5k or 6k video. We can Dream and Imagine all we want, but that doesn't make it realistic.

I'm not dreaming. I don't care about 4K or even HD, but as the sensor tech evolves we will have the sensors and we are discussing the future not the past. Sony may or may not be able to make a MF 4K sensor. Sony didn't make MF sensors at all until last year.

[Kunzite]

Generations, that means from 60 years upwards (~30 years each). No chance of digital. AF was not invented. Small format film somehow fits, but it wasn't called "full frame" back then. Leica M barely fits, but it's the only such bayonet mount from the major consumer brands.

[Not a Number]

Adam says by the end of the year but I'm not seeing it in the Press Release. Not saying it isn't there but I don't see it.

The press release says something like "For market release by the end of 2015". So what's the end of 2015? Dec 31, 2015? March is considered the beginning of spring for most temperate countries in the Northern Hemisphere. So they slipped by 2 or 3 months. BFD! People got their hopes up that mid-Fall in the Northern Hemisphere would be the earliest this camera would be available. Sure there were a few credible rumors to reinforce these hopes but in the end these turn out just to be rumors.

[biz-engineer]

To me you can't do anything against Smartphone except manufacturing smartphones yourself. The good thing with theses thing is that their use is so intensive that even now that it no longer possible to see any gain with the new smartphone models, people are still bound to buy some to replace the old broken one. Because usage is intensive, that still happen quite fast. And in developping country not everybody has a smartphone yet. You can sell to them. For DSLR even couting mirorless I think the issue is different. All the people that are willing to get a fancy camera and have the money for it already brought it. The new models sure have better specs but for most people it make no difference. 12MP or 24MP or 52MP is still more than enough. AF is good enough on all models if you don't do action and otherwise you need an advenced model but theses one got the issue fixed some time ago too. Pixel shift and alike are gadget. As well as FF vs APSC... And for that last one FF has been here for years. There no reason to buy a new fancy camera is your current one is still working. The buying rate slower drop to replacement rate and this kind of stuff can work for a dozen year if it doesn't get intensive use anyway. In the end, the last feature that made a difference was when we switched from CCD to CMOS. The picture dynamic range and the high iso performance improved a lot. It opened new usage like low light without flash, in particular with fast primes and also single frame HDR. Since there no major new feature, nothing that can justify for most people to replace their existing camera. The thing that can count the number of time the photosite saturated could be such a thing because you would not have to care of exposure anymore and only low light would be an issue. You could capture a 20 or 30EV picture in one shoot and this would unlock very low sensitivity mode like iso 10. Other possibility, if you gain again 2EV of low light performance, people would buy because it would improve their experience. The only issue is that this also mean more people will get this in their phones too reducing the need for DSLRs. The rest is detail and because it evolve slowly you need many years to make a difference. Sony got 0.2-0.3 EV performance with latest FF vs the D800 that was lauched few years ago. To make it visible to 1EV, if the rate of improvements doesn't change, that 10-15 years cycle.

Good a analysis, I fully agree with you. However, I originally had a K200D and now I have a K-3, and I see that you do also have a K-3, so our actions sort of contradict our thought. Now, lets consider that we don't need more and stick we the K-3 until 2025, and others do the same, which would leads to a serious compression of the digital camera market (if everyone is content for the 10 years after his K-3 purchase), therefore more competition, less financial profit, and the weakest digital camera manufacturers to disappear. Do you predict that Pentax is going to disappear?

[reh321]

For DSLR even counting mirrorless I think the issue is different. All the people that are willing to get a fancy camera and have the money for it already brought it. The new models sure have better specs but for most people it make no difference. 12MP or 24MP or 52MP is still more than enough. AF is good enough on all models if you don't do action and otherwise you need an advanced model but theses one got the issue fixed some time ago too. Pixel shift and alike are gadget. As well as FF vs APSC... And for that last one FF has been here for years.

There no reason to buy a new fancy camera is your current one is still working. The buying rate slower drop to replacement rate and this kind of stuff can work for a dozen year if it doesn't get intensive use anyway.

In the end, the last feature that made a difference was when we switched from CCD to CMOS. The picture dynamic range and the high iso performance improved a lot. It opened new usage like low light without flash, in particular with fast primes and also single frame HDR. Since there no major new feature, nothing that can justify for most people to replace their existing camera..

A year ago I might have agreed with you. My last two film cameras lasted 11 years each, and I had kind of assumed the same sort of lifetime for my Canon Rebel. My first one died in just six years; I hadn't been ready for that, hadn't been really thinking about what I would get to replace it, so I bought a refurbished similar camera, started researching new cameras (which is how I ended up here), and circled Black Friday 2016 (exactly nine years after I bought the first Rebel) as the date when I would replace my second Rebel.

Then I bought a used-like-new Pentax Q-7 to replace my pocket camera. This small-sensor camera blew away my older-design APS-C sensor Rebel, and I became aware of how much progress digital cameras have made in recent years. Thus, I was disappointed, but not heartbroken, when my second Rebel also died. I was ready, and after following auctions for a few weeks on eBay, I bought myself a used-like-new K-30. I don't know how long I will use the K-30. In the past, I've used my previous camera to back up my current camera, but after having two Rebels die, I guess the Q-7 is the backup for the K-30. Even if the K-30 has a long productive life, I can see myself replacing it in considerably less than ten years, because the continued march of digital cameras means that you gain so much from buying a new camera that hanging on to an old one makes less sense. Moore's Law still seems to work, even with camera components; I cannot imagine how they will make radical improvements in the basic digital camera in the future, but history has taught me not to assume that they won't. With improved sensors, processors, and software, even if the current camera is "doing the job", upgrading may still make much more sense than it ever did before.

[biz-engineer]

The press release says something like "For market release by the end of 2015". So what's the end of 2015? Dec 31, 2015? March is considered the beginning of spring for most temperate countries in the Northern Hemisphere. So they slipped by 2 or 3 months. BFD! People got their hopes up that mid-Fall in the Northern Hemisphere would be the earliest this camera would be available. Sure there were a few credible rumors to reinforce these hopes but in the end these turn out just to be rumors.

Spring 2016 debut in Argentina, that would be October-December 2016 then?

[infoomatic]

do you guys think there is a chance we get the tamron 15-30 for k-mount (maybe in a Pentax rebranded version))?

[Nicolas06]

A year ago I might have agreed with you. My last two film cameras lasted 11 years each, and I had kind of assumed the same sort of lifetime for my Canon Rebel. My first one died in just six years; I hadn't been ready for that, hadn't been really thinking about what I would get to replace it, so I bought a refurbished similar camera, started researching new cameras (which is how I ended up here), and circled Black Friday 2016 (exactly nine years after I bought the first Rebel) as the date when I would replace my second Rebel.

Then I bought a used-like-new Pentax Q-7 to replace my pocket camera. This small-sensor camera blew away my older-design APS-C sensor Rebel, and I became aware of how much progress digital cameras have made in recent years. Thus, I was disappointed, but not heartbroken, when my second Rebel also died. I was ready, and after following auctions for a few weeks on eBay, I bought myself a used-like-new K-30. I don't know how long I will use the K-30. In the past, I've used my previous camera to back up my current camera, but after having two Rebels die, I guess the Q-7 is the backup for the K-30. Even if the K-30 has a long productive life, I can see myself replacing it in considerably less than ten years, because the continued march of digital cameras means that you gain so much from buying a new camera that hanging on to an old one makes less sense. Moore's Law still seems to work, even with camera components; I cannot imagine how they will make radical improvements in the basic digital camera in the future, but history has taught me not to assume that they won't. With improved sensors, processors, and software, even if the current camera is "doing the job", upgrading may still make much more sense than it ever did before.

You rebel was old so you discovered the CMOS/CCD thing and also post processing that make Q quality bearable despite the small sensor (bundled directly in the camera). You also came from Canon that never got the new sensor quality. Sony, Pentax, Nikon, Smartphones all have it. Not Canon.

Now that's done and you have a K30. You would require an MF 645Z to see the same amount of difference again for picture quality. And maybe you'll not like the form factor or price!

Anyway you brought used so that didn't make money for Pentax and that mean you expect the thing to still be in usable state for a few years.

The business was making money from massive migration from film (now done) and also people buying the increase perf of new model (done too). There only replacement.

Sure as an enthousiast you may brought a K FF used or something like that in a few years, and that will not make the manufacturer a bit of money.

People over exagerate the low durability of things when they are not lucky and say the new TV, car etc are all unreliable... It still seems that a car is still made for 200 000+ kilometers and to last 10 years or more. Mine is 7 years old and do just fine. It got a batterie issue 1 time and that all. People said to me my TV would die after 5 years, it is 8 years old and working well...

In the end if you buy every 6-7 years, that the long term replacement rate we where getting out of film camera before digital. Some kept them 20 years, some 3-4 years but overall it is 7 years and that doesn't mean the old model was not working anymore and it was only high end expensive models.