[RonHendriks1966]

"Funny" how a delay in FF release translates into such gloom and doom.

The down fall in sales of Pentax aps-c equipement was already well before photokina 2014. I guess people where expecting that there would be a fullframe k-mount camera on display in Cologne. Maybe not realistic from Ricoh Imaging's site, but something we as a usergroup had expected. And maybe we made up that fairytail ourselfs and started to believe it. Just putting a break on buying photo equipement is for everyone a personal decision, but probably a lot of people did that. You keep on to your money to make the big purchase when that fullframe K-1 arrives at Photokina. Didn't happen, but then there was the mockup at CP+ that promises to deliver Somewhere this year. So people keep their money and sales go down. Then there is the message of spring 2016..........ending in june 2016. So even very enthousiast fanboys would be somewhat holding on to their money for 2 years. Is there any evidence of this in the market? Well there are less and less other company's supporting the K-mount system with lenses, flashes and other stuff. That is because they can't make a living out of thin air, but need sales to support their business in bringing products to the market for K-mount. Hard any stores left over that carry Pentax on their shelves. Something that Happens in many markets as I withnest myself and people wrote about on this forum.

Is this preaching gloom and doom? I don't think so. It is the number of posts that state that the up coming camera is absolute fantastic that are bringing mist to a clear sky. The fullframe had about every thinkable specification you can dream of over the past years when it would be presented in 2012...2013...2014...2015...2016 and all of it are for now just wishfull thinking.

[Nicolas06]

Now, what to do? I'm not sure. I sold what I did not use. Now I have what I need in APSC, which has a usage value. Regarding full frame, Pentax are not clear, I can't measure the risk to buy more K mount product and then being screw-up in case Pentax would not survive. I also realized that camera bodies lose value fairly fast, and lenses have longer life time. So, I'd be ready to spend more on the lenses and spend less on the body, and that's exactly what Nikon are offering with their entry level FF. I guess Pentax are going to deliver a great FF camera at a premium price, but I prefer to invest in good glass and have less mega pixels, because 20 or 20Mpixels on FF is plenty sharp for printing. What I learned from APSC is that I spent more than I should by buying cheaper lenses first, so since I know what I want, I'll buy a complete system in one shot (lenses and body). With Pentax I cannot currently select a FF system set because they are going to release one product at a time. If I look at Nikon or Canon I can built the setup that I want in one shot (no need to wait three year to add a new lens). So, now, I wait and see until I want to buy a FF system, if at that time Pentax does not have a full system to select from, I won't buy a Pentax.

To be honest I don't think this is fair to consider your spending in camera gear with resale value in mind.

Camera gear is purely a cost if you are not a reseller. Be it as an amateur or as a pro it something you need to buy to take photos. This is not the objective. This is just a way.

If you invest 2000$ in APSC body and lenses you monopolize 2000$... If you resell for 1000$^5 years laters, you have lost $1000. In exchange of all of this you were able to take photos for 5 years.

Now repeat with 5000$ of FF body and lenses. You monopolize 5000$, you resell maybe for 3500$ (let's be optimistic) 5 years later. You have lost $1500. In exchange of all of this you were able to take photos for 5 years. More was invested and more was lost even through the percentage loss was lower.

Anything that you don't resell with real benefit is a loss and is not worth investing in. And the comparison has to be made with what you could have done with the money instead. Maybe advertisement for your company/activity as a pro that give you a few more contracts, maybe simply a better salary for yourself or more vacations. Maybe more money in the bank so you can ensure you don't have issue if you did a bad month...

In general things that don't give at least a 2X return on investment is not really worth to invest in. And if you can't find anything that at least provide that, then either you already invested enough, either you should stop your activity and try something else.

[rullrich]

So basically this thread is going this way: everything is lost and invain. All those top pundits around here advice me (and foremost themselves it seems) that now it's definitely time to jump ship. The story goes that RICOH absolutely has no idea of the dslr-market, has no idea where to move next, which product to develop and so on. If they only would listen to Uluru and the likes, they already have the answers ready. Unfortunately their don't run a global company on their own, but this detail is of minor concern and can be neglected. These days it's really hard to stand whats written in here. Please people, get happy again, even if this means you have to buy Nikon or Canon or Sony, really, the others don't mind, even if you think so. You are grown ups, you can buy whatever you like, even if it's non-Pentax gear, nobody cares. But please don't tell everybody else that it's useless to adhere to Pentax. Those who do for whatever reason are grown-ups as well who know what to do (I hope at least)!

[biz-engineer]

Anything that you don't resell with real benefit is a loss and is not worth investing in

Unless I'd be a professional, I'd not consider camera spending as investments. By definition, an investment is supposed to bring more money than it costed.

Now repeat with 5000$ of FF body and lenses. You monopolize 5000$, you resell maybe for 3500$ (let's be optimistic) 5 years later. You have lost $1500.

If five year later the K mount is gone, the resell value is Zero... that's the problem: avoiding digging our own k-mount hole too deep.

So basically this thread is going this way: everything is lost and invain.

No need to switch to the other extreme in an attempt to turn bad the debate into a positive one. The main issue when we are engaged with a supplier is whether we are confident enough to spend more or not. You can easily spend $10000 in camera gear that is not reusable with AF on other brands of products. So, if your favorite brand does things that do not inspire confidence, the question is where to put the $10000.

Is this preaching gloom and doom? I don't think so. It is the number of posts that state that the up coming camera is absolute fantastic that are bringing mist to a clear sky. The fullframe had about every thinkable specification you can dream of over the past years when it would be presented in 2012...2013...2014...2015...2016 and all of it are for now just wishfull thinking.

What interests me is how to deal with that.

---

Last edited by biz-engineer; 09-30-2015 at 12:58 PM.

[redpit]

I'm quite disappointed from many of the posts in here. They are negative but mostly based on personal beliefs and estimations without objective data... It's not forbidden, after all we all express our personal views, but it has become quite boring and annoying.

I want to express my opinion and some thoughts on the FF and Pentax future, as this has become the main subject of this thread.

I shot Pentax because I'm extremely happy with the results! I was shooting Nikon but when I had the chance to make the comparison and choose my system, Pentax was clearly better and more fun to use! I like the fact that Pentax is not from the biggest players in the market. The advantages are that you don't get a "new" product every 6 months that has little if anything to add to the previous one (I mean in real photography and not on a specifications list). Moreover Ricoh-Pentax is trying hard to offer more advanced features for the money you pay and differentiate from the companies that rule the market, and so far it has been extremely successful. I'm sure the FF will be another great camera simply because Pentax can't afford to and doesn't want to release another improved model within a year, if she makes a mistake. In fact Pentax can't afford to make a mistake in her main decisions. Although this must be really hard pressure for the company and the persons that decide its strategy and design the new products, we only benefit by getting even higher quality products. The question is has Pentax any success up to now in this highly competitive environment? The answer comes from facts. It has the 645Z one of the best medium format cameras in the market, the K-3 probably the best APS-C in the market (definitely the best value for money camera in the market) and the KS-2 a really wonderful camera that when you hold it you feel that it is another fine example of the Pentax philosophy in camera building... It has done mistakes as well or experiments that were not so successful but were exploring different market sectors, like the KS-1 that's is not bad but not a shining camera either, but also the Theta that is a really nice gadget-camera.

Concerning lenses Arsenal, the new DFA 150-450 is really superb and the all new 24-70/2.8 although rebadged, it comes from a highly competitive to the Canonikon lens at a great price. I really believe that it will be another winner lens.

So to sum up, I didn't give any unknown information as I don't know anything more than you, but I just presented Ricoh-Pentax present state as I see it. If Pentax will have problems in the future then we will discuss about them, now by discussing possibilities and problems that are based on assumptions we only create problems... When I'm affected by the negativity in here I just grab my K-5IIs and go out for some evening shooting with the great Pentax glass and when I open the pictures in my PC I go back to reality! And reality is objective... I just feel that many people in here feel "trapped" in Pentax and its different philosophy that doesn't suit them. There are always many different options in the market, just find those that fulfill your expectations and stop degrading something that is really worthy for some of us...

And I would like to close with one personal concern that since we talk about many different things in here on the occasion of the FF I find it strange that no one hasn't mention. My main concern is not the photography market, but the global market and the financial situation in general. In most Europe countries job positions and salaries are constantly decreasing and this harsh environment has affected my ability to travel around my country and abroad and take photographs, as I used to in the past. What's the point of having equipment (that is acquired with many sacrifices) when you don't have the opportunities that you would love to use it and enjoy it?

---------- Post added 09-30-15 at 01:27 PM ----------

So basically this thread is going this way: everything is lost and invain. All those top pundits around here advice me (and foremost themselves it seems) that now it's definitely time to jump ship. The story goes that RICOH absolutely has no idea of the dslr-market, has no idea where to move next, which product to develop and so on. If they only would listen to Uluru and the likes, they already have the answers ready. Unfortunately their don't run a global company on their own, but this detail is of minor concern and can be neglected. These days it's really hard to stand whats written in here. Please people, get happy again, even if this means you have to buy Nikon or Canon or Sony, really, the others don't mind, even if you think so. You are grown ups, you can buy whatever you like, even if it's non-Pentax gear, nobody cares. But please don't tell everybody else that it's useless to adhere to Pentax. Those who do for whatever reason are grown-ups as well who know what to do (I hope at least)!

+1

[Nicolas06]

Unless I'd be a professional, I'd not consider camera spending as investments. By definition, an investment is supposed to bring more money than it costed.

If you are not investing, this is a cost, you are loosing money on it and you do it for your pleasure. You are speaking us of resale value. This mean you are interrested in money. In this case, you need to be rational. The goal should be to get max pleasure with minimum money. This doesn't go by maximazing resale value but miniming the total cost of ownership. If it resell better but the final cost is still higher because I invested much more at the begining this isn't such a great deal in the end. If I spend more it is because I expect noticably more pleasure out of it... Hopefully that should last longer than just a few weeks after I brought it.

If five year later the K mount is gone, the resell value is Zero... that's the problem: avoiding digging our own k-mount hole too deep.

If the K-mount is gone in 5 years the value might be lower but it will not be 0. A barely decent MF lense that is 40 years old still often sell for something... If it is not a 50mm prime, it can often sell for more than 100€ and offer decent quality. People will still see value in buying cheap even if they can't get new gear from Pentax. So it more likely to be at least 300-500€. You'll have the impression they steal you, but you'll get some money out of it.

But much more noticable, is the 3000€ you didn't have to spend that put at the bank would have produced some interrest. All in all, you'll have still as much or more money than the FF guy with the best brand.

You remind me of people that explain the best strategy is to buy new car all the time and resell early when it still worth something. It is cheaper they say. They even choose the model and car color for the resell value. They choose diesel because of the resell value, even through it isn't the same as a gazoline car. This kind of guys are spending €500 a month for their car mortage and when they are finished with it they buy a new one so a new mortage kick in. Sure they never really pay the car, but they are still spending a lot. 500€ a month is 6000€ a year. After 10 years they have spent 60000€ while somebody that brought 1 more basic car and kept it for 10 years had to spend only 15000€. Their car is not a luxury item but it still does the same thing and it cost them 4 time less.

[clackers]

.


Anyone is allowed to have their own opinions. Realistic or Dreaming, no problem.

But you don't just do opinions, Ron, you do assertions without evidence - profitability, 3% market share, K-30 writedowns.

If you've had a tough time personally and professionally in the last couple of years (wasn't there some trouble with a sporting body???) and camera makers in general are finding the market difficult, fair enough. Adverse events cultivate pessimism.

But a - what did you call it - 'realistic' opinion may be that niche makers can do well for themselves by *not* following the mistakes of the bigger companies - over production, high advertising costs, low margins, me-too products.

[Zygonyx]

So basically this thread is going this way: everything is lost and invain. All those top pundits around here advice me (and foremost themselves it seems) that now it's definitely time to jump ship. The story goes that RICOH absolutely has no idea of the dslr-market, has no idea where to move next, which product to develop and so on. If they only would listen to Uluru and the likes, they already have the answers ready. Unfortunately their don't run a global company on their own, but this detail is of minor concern and can be neglected. These days it's really hard to stand whats written in here. Please people, get happy again, even if this means you have to buy Nikon or Canon or Sony, really, the others don't mind, even if you think so. You are grown ups, you can buy whatever you like, even if it's non-Pentax gear, nobody cares. But please don't tell everybody else that it's useless to adhere to Pentax. Those who do for whatever reason are grown-ups as well who know what to do (I hope at least)!

KUDOS for this attempt
Seems the more evenings shorten, the least people take pictures, the more people are staying home, the more they complain or depress on the internet.
NOT ME

[Nicolas06]

KUDOS for this try.
Seems the more evenings shorten, the least people take pictures, the more people are staying home, the more they complain or depress on the internet.
NOT ME

The more I'am near from vacation going to visit Andalousia ! Yeah... And the week before go to Milan universal exposition !

Many pictures opportunities! I don't have a Pentax FF but I don't care, this can wait ! My vacations can't wait !

[RonHendriks1966]

Pentax Confirms Full-Frame Plans at CP+ - Pentax Rumors | PentaxForums.com

We will see in 2016.

[monochrome]

Absolutely untrue. The FD, AR, MD, OM, Deckel, and many others are long gone, but the glass is still worth something. In some cases for rare items,items bring more than they did while the mounts were still alive.

Agree!! If a K-mount lens with an adapter is such a great idea on a Sony A7-? today, why would that be a bad idea if Ricoh abandons Pentax tomorrow?

[Rondec]

Unless I'd be a professional, I'd not consider camera spending as investments. By definition, an investment is supposed to bring more money than it costed.


If five year later the K mount is gone, the resell value is Zero... that's the problem: avoiding digging our own k-mount hole too deep.


No need to switch to the other extreme in an attempt to turn bad the debate into a positive one. The main issue when we are engaged with a supplier is whether we are confident enough to spend more or not. You can easily spend $10000 in camera gear that is not reusable with AF on other brands of products. So, if your favorite brand does things that do not inspire confidence, the question is where to put the $10000.


What interests me is how to deal with that.

As long as your camera body continues to work, it has some resale value. The glass probably has quite a bit of value, as it is easily mountable on a number of mirrorless cameras out there.

As to how much money you lose on camera gear, it depends on when you buy. If you buy soon after release, it will tend to lose more value, while if you buy when the Ks is selling for 550, it will tend to maintain its value better. I don't really care, as I am trading money for the ability to shoot photos. Delay that experience a few months and the cost is less, but I also have lost out on that time with some new gear.

In the end that is unquantifiable. Particularly for those who shoot as a hobby, it is enjoyable and the money spent is not wasted, even though maybe the gear doesn't have great re sale value.

[biz-engineer]

All in all, you'll have still as much or more money than the FF guy with the best brand.

So true, since I have the K-3, the image quality is such that I'm not sure if there will really be a be difference with a FF. No sure if I'd enjoy photography more with a FF versus APSC, at the end of the day, the action of photographying (composition , etc) is about the same.

---------- Post added 30-09-15 at 23:51 ----------

As long as your camera body continues to work, it has some resale value

Sure, I'd even say "as long as it works we can use it... except if it break and we can't find a repair center." Other than that, I have not problem to buy body and lenses all together a keep exploit the combo for several years.

---------- Post added 30-09-15 at 23:58 ----------

I don't really care, as I am trading money for the ability to shoot photos. Delay that experience a few months and the cost is less, but I also have lost out on that time with some new gear.

Yep , that's enjoying the experience of shooting.... regarding that, I was thinking that instead of waiting for a FF to buy, I'd rent 645z for some of the local fashion shows. That would be an experience!
For doing landscapes... I don't know, perhaps rent is not a convenient solution , if you to be there when the weather is fine , and lighting is good (as I've seen some of your beautiful photos posted here).

[RonHendriks1966]

But you don't just do opinions, Ron, you do assertions without evidence - profitability, 3% market share, K-30 writedowns.

It's not all just assumption.

A 3 % marketshare would mean selling over 300.000 dslr's. With Japan as the biggest market, a claim by a Pentax rep, and selling there some 55.000 dslr's camera's makes it not very likely.

I'm not to good in keeping track of every bit of evidence, but then again, i'm not to interested in it, since i'm not on trial.

[biz-engineer]

Pentax Confirms Full-Frame Plans at CP+ - Pentax Rumors | PentaxForums.com We will see in 2016.

Pentax was waiting to insert their FF as upgrade path of their most advanced APSC (K5IIs, K-3). In 2013, they could not say "given the room for IQ improvement that APSC can still provide (K-3) and our market share, at the moment, we can't break-even with a FF camera". So they bought time by saying "we will do a FF " to avoid Pentax users to switch to another mount. That means that their primary goal is to exploit the k mount user base , and they don't have a plan to acquire any Canikon customers. So their approach is to get new customers with the entry level APSC and then channel them up the product line. I guess they expect to sell the FF as a replacement for K-5, K5II,K5IIs, K-3 and K-3II. Then the delay makes sense. If the FF is price as much as three K-5/K3, then 30% of the K-5/K-3 user base is even to generate the same revenue (except if a number of K-5 owners bought a FF from another brand), then they need more than 30% conversion rate. They are nice, they force us to exhaust our K-5s or K-3 and save money because they allow us to replace it with a FF. The only difficulty with this is that photographers are like tomatoes, they don't get mature all at the same time, so the ones who were mature for a FF too early probably went elsewhere. The remaining Pentax crew being still there.