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11-02-2015, 01:29 PM   #61
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Different conditions, different uses.
I prefer arguing here than exhibiting anything i could on what you know.
Trying to be at least convincing somewhere...

11-02-2015, 03:04 PM   #62
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Looks like an ergonomic nightmare to me...
It is indeed an ergonomic nightmare for now, which is precisely why it hasn't yet been developed for the market. But it is coming within 4-5 years. As the Lumix shows, a phone with a 1" 20mp sensor already exists. Now all that is needed is a case for a smartphone to snap into that accepts current lenses. The manufacturers will skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is now.

Remember the K-7? Five years ago it retailed for $1,099 and now you can get a used one off eBay for under $200. The K-3's sensor will sell for a song in 5 years as SONY keeps producing better and faster ones. Why wouldn't it? No one wants the K-10d or K-7 sensor today. You cannot give it away. When the wholesale price of the K-3 sensor (or anything similar) drops to $25 or less in 5 years, why not stick them in $500 smartphones or into cases that smartphones snap into? Actually, the price of the sensors will be much, much lower. No sensor manufacturer could ever dream of moving 100,000,000 units in APS-C cameras.

Last edited by quant2325; 11-02-2015 at 03:13 PM.
11-02-2015, 03:57 PM   #63
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Those are some bold claims. "it is coming within 4-5 years"? Really? Who's going to make it? Who's going to make the jump from that CM1 with its 13.2x8.8mm sensor to a 23.5x15.6mm APS-C sensor? Yes, that's more than 3 times the area.

And mixing second hand camera prices with sensor prices doesn't work either. Samsung is no longer selling the K-7 sensor. Sony will most likely not sell at all the K-3's sensor, 5 years from now. It's not like they're making as many sensors as they can, then hoping to get rid of them for a penny.

Not to say that an implied market of 100,000,000 units is ridiculous and completely unsubstantiated.

And last but not least, I fail to see any connection with Ricoh financial results.

But, what do I know about technology?
11-02-2015, 05:58 PM   #64
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Those are some bold claims. "it is coming within 4-5 years"? Really? Who's going to make it? Who's going to make the jump from that CM1 with its 13.2x8.8mm sensor to a 23.5x15.6mm APS-C sensor? Yes, that's more than 3 times the area.

And mixing second hand camera prices with sensor prices doesn't work either. Samsung is no longer selling the K-7 sensor. Sony will most likely not sell at all the K-3's sensor, 5 years from now. It's not like they're making as many sensors as they can, then hoping to get rid of them for a penny.

Not to say that an implied market of 100,000,000 units is ridiculous and completely unsubstantiated.

And last but not least, I fail to see any connection with Ricoh financial results.

But, what do I know about technology?
Bold claim? Global smartphone sales are over 100,000,000 units per year now! Only a seriously uninformed person could think sensor sales for smartphone will be under 100,000,000 units per year again...at least not for a long time! My point, and I'm sure intelligent people got this, is that any sensor "good enough" (which I assume is something on par with a K-3 sensor today) will be dirt cheap in five years and add little incremental cost to a smartphone. "...ridiculous and completely unsubstantiated"? See the chart below and then ask yourself why you never bought shares in Apple:

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11-03-2015, 01:22 AM   #65
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And you think that a large part of them would have an APS-C sensor?
It's not how you think, with obsolete sensors being sold for a penny. Production costs actually doesn't decrease, after you 'fix' the yields. But please don't believe me; just ask Sony if you can buy their old 12MP APS-C sensor for "dirt cheap". Because if you can't...
11-03-2015, 01:53 AM   #66
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I don't see the need for a sensor larger then the 1 inch in the Lumix. That sensor is now already very good. The better it gets, the less need there is for something bigger. Bigger sensors need bigger lenses, so it's cheaper to create a new mount for this click-on camera box with a set of lenses.
11-03-2015, 02:02 AM   #67
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If we can't agree on physics (making room for a sensor more than 3 times larger, and the corresponding lens), the need aspect is definitely too complex to even try bringing it into discussion.
But it's a very good point. I'm rather thinking of an improved sensor, BSI or whatever they'll have 5 years from now...
11-03-2015, 06:00 AM   #68
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Cell phones are stealing P&S camera sales; cameras for casual shooting. Not DSLR's. Cell phone cameras means that far more people are taking far more images than ever before. A percentage of those will become interested in photography and buy a dedicated camera like a DSLR. Although DSLR face marked saturation, more photographers are added so the future for real cameras are reasonably bright...

11-03-2015, 12:34 PM   #69
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New uses for new tech tends to drive popularity to develop products. How about two very excellent small sensors allowing 3D video from any phone? Add in depth of field (lytro-like) to the tech., the programming and hardware designs of the future will look like nothing similar to old sensors. Programmers flock like birds opportunistically in the tech ecosystem. That by itself will make old sensors unsupportable.
11-03-2015, 01:01 PM   #70
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QuoteOriginally posted by Pål Jensen Quote
Cell phones are stealing P&S camera sales; cameras for casual shooting. Not DSLR's. Cell phone cameras means that far more people are taking far more images than ever before. A percentage of those will become interested in photography and buy a dedicated camera like a DSLR. Although DSLR face marked saturation, more photographers are added so the future for real cameras are reasonably bright...
I'm a a member of a photography "salon," a mix of pros and amateurs working on documentary projects of one sort or another. When we started a number of years ago, the mix of platforms skewed towards DSLRs with a MF film camera thrown in for good measure. But now I think that mirrorless systems are in the majority. The MF guy has traded in his film Hasselblad first for Canon FF and now Panasonic M43. His work is still excellent.
11-03-2015, 01:39 PM   #71
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QuoteOriginally posted by goldenarrow Quote
New uses for new tech tends to drive popularity to develop products. How about two very excellent small sensors allowing 3D video from any phone? Add in depth of field (lytro-like) to the tech., the programming and hardware designs of the future will look like nothing similar to old sensors. Programmers flock like birds opportunistically in the tech ecosystem. That by itself will make old sensors unsupportable.
Two sensors sounds so old school......

I think you missen this announcement

http://www.dpreview.com/articles/4607499406/light-l16-packs-16-cameras-into-a-single-portable-body
11-04-2015, 04:33 AM   #72
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The presentation audio is now online. It doesn't say much about consumer cameras, though - a bit about Theta.
A special mention for Ricoh's first 3D printer. Looking back at CP+ 2015, that FF mock-up might have been printed on a Ricoh printer
11-04-2015, 06:39 AM   #73
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Two sensors sounds so old school......

I think you missen this announcement

http://www.dpreview.com/articles/4607499406/light-l16-packs-16-cameras-into-a-single-portable-body
Or This!
Sensors go on a bender: Flexible phototransistors let cameras “see” more like you and me
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