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11-23-2015, 09:58 AM   #196
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
Yeah but this give us back to A7 issues. No fast f/2.8 zoom, no pro level AF, no proper handling for big lenses. And A7 is the only in town to be FF the other are not even trying.

Sony is not targeting pro with its A7 familly, it is targeting FF enthousiasts that are still driven by size/weight. By accident it also get the market of people that don't buy new lenses but buy used. But theses people don't earn you lot of money. And it share the same issues as other MILC in term of price. If you need a get price on a lens you need to invest into the adapter and then buy in alpha mount.

We summed up why in the end MILC isn't more present:
- No much money to make for manufacturers for most of the market (Olympus pen equiv.) so manufacturers need to keep somewhat high price when they are in and prefer to stay in DSLR market (Canikon, Pentax)
- Expensive for consumers (Direct consequence of the previous issue but also because theses system are new and small, Sigma/Tamron/Tokina and alike are not really yet here)
- Lack of pro level offering (no fast FF f/2.8 zoom, no pro contracts, lack of ecosystem)
- Not same performance as DSLR (limited AF performance, battery performance, lack of proper handling due to form factor)

To solve all of this will not happen in 3 month, in particular in a shrinking market where it is difficult to not lose money.
The greatest strength of MILC is size/weight. I doubt if action users will ever go MILC, because (as you've already pointed out) getting the capabilities they want (the constant f/2.8 zoom lens, for example) loses most of the size/weight advantage. Professionals are less likely than amateurs to go MILC, because they don't mind hauling large amounts of gear with them (I'm amazed every time I see a backpack-sized camera bag, because I've never had a camera bag larger than roughly 30cm x 20cm x 20xm). MILCs are kind of pushed towards hybrid AF systems, which may be more accurate albeit slower; professionals are willing to go through the bother of tuning camera systems to avoid the dreaded front/back focus issues, so the greater accuracy of hybrid AF holds less appeal for them. Then there are the amateurs who want to look like a professional. The primary target audience for MILC is people like me; if I limit my camera bag to that 30cm x 20cm x 20cm, then smaller gear allows me to get more functionality into that bag, but I still want a viewfinder (so the Q or K-01 forces me to occupy some of that bag space with a Hoodman) and a certain level of quality. I take a limited number of pictures each day, and I've always had room for a few extra batteries, so battery life has never been a real issue for me. As you can see from the colors of the newish equipment in my signature, I prefer equipment that differentiates me from professionals; that is because I take a lot of pictures that are essentially "street photography" - they have people in them and I don't want their appearance to be affected by the presence of my cameras. In that setting, a smallish not-all-black outfit is ideal for me. I don't know how many people are like me, and I don't know how many of them have analyzed the situation as I have (I am naturally analytical, which goes with my being a mostly-retired software engineer).

You are 100% right that change will not happen overnight - it could easily take five years or more, depending on how fast people replace cameras (my preferred pattern is for a camera to last at least five years, but I'd be willing to replace a camera earlier if I had a compelling technological reason for so doing).

11-23-2015, 10:05 AM   #197
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
You are 100% right that change will not happen overnight - it could easily take five years or more, depending on how fast people replace cameras (my preferred pattern is for a camera to last at least five years, but I'd be willing to replace a camera earlier if I had a compelling technological reason for so doing).
I feel like I've just been listed by a Jehova's Witness, telling me they could tell me what was coming in the future... oh wait, I just was, it wasn't you...

Ignore that comment.
11-23-2015, 10:48 AM   #198
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
bag to that 30cm x 20cm x 20cm
I have a smaller bag than that more 30x20x15 and it can fit a DA*50-135 + DA16-50 + cobra flash + a 85mm f/1.4 prime + a folded light box if I wish to, a few filters, memory cards and other accessories. It could also old a tablet or a book. Your bag isn't small by any means.

Last edited by Nicolas06; 11-23-2015 at 10:55 AM.
11-23-2015, 10:55 AM   #199
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
You are 100% right that change will not happen overnight - it could easily take five years or more, depending on how fast people replace cameras (my preferred pattern is for a camera to last at least five years, but I'd be willing to replace a camera earlier if I had a compelling technological reason for so doing).
The long term replacement rate historically before digital what every 7 years. We are going back to this long term tendancy. That's why sales are decreasing: people don't feel the need anymore to replace their camera with a new one because they don't really see the actual difference.

On my side I didn't see anything mirrorless that convincing, every offering is lacking something to be good. It is not only a mater of replacement rate otherwise DSLR would not continue to sell more than MILC. It is a matter of what people actually want and are willing to pay for.

Maybe in 5 years everybody and will go MILC but people predicted that 5 years ago already and this didn't happen. It is easy to make predictions... Not so easy to be right.

12-01-2015, 12:49 PM   #200
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Oktober is just in. A little bit more down since last years oktober was very strong. Especially Japan and Europe are weak. November should also be a weak month compared to last year.
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