CIPA statistics for September - those DSLRs just won't die

Kunzite · 11-02-2015, 04:04 AM - **2 Likes**

Hello,

CIPA published their usual production/shipment data for September. Despite claims that DSLRs are being replaced by MILCs, smartphones, kitchen owens and whatever, the DSLR production figures show an increase (while the MILCs declined).
For the entire year, the DSLRs could have a slight decline in units but an increase in value (as shipment figures should follow the production ones). We have 3 months of data which could change things one way or another, though.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201509_e.pdf

I'd say Ricoh Imaging was right to think the DSLR market will stabilize (that was back when MILCs were "gaining" rapidly). It also means the decision to make the K-mount FF DSLR is not that crazy; it's still simultaneously serving the much larger market and their loyal user base i.e. us. A win-win scenario.

Last edited by Kunzite; 11-02-2015 at 04:25 AM.

pacu · 11-02-2015, 04:24 AM

The news about their demise were greatly exaggerated...

**Rondec** · 11-02-2015, 04:43 AM

The medium to long term future of SLRs is uncertain. In the short term, they will be fine. Hopefully Ricoh is putting some efforts into R and D with regard to mirrorless options, even if they won't launch such a camera for awhile. Feels like entry level SLR could shift to mirrorless with EVF if it brings down cost.

In the end, most photographers buy based on price, features and glass. "Common" folks buy a camera based on features and price. At this point, other than better video, there is little difference that the average user will see between a similarly priced SLR and mirrorless camera. The whole shorter registration distance makes little difference to most photographers either. I know it is a big deal to Forumites. but most people don't want to be able to mount thirty different mounts of lenses on their camera, they just want to be able to mount three or four lenses, without an adapter and have them autofocus and meter correctly.

cxdoo · 11-02-2015, 04:57 AM - **1 Like**

Mirrorless will start seriously denting DSLRs once they're cheaper for the same/better performance. Hipsters are fringe market.

biz-engineer · 11-02-2015, 04:59 AM

DSLR won't disappear any time soon, but the "do it all" DSLR will slowly disappear, as a lot of people only need a mirrorless for what they are doing (IMO fast PDAF tracking for landscape is just not needed). DSLR might get more specialized as it already is but not everyone know it: some people use a D4s for portraits.... :-) For some reasons, the Pentax FF might still land in the "do it all" (fully featured heavy expensive like the D810), and might get its average share of market in the Pentax land only, simply because of limited resources and k mount volume.

**Digitalis** · 11-02-2015, 05:09 AM - **4 Likes**

I wasn't aware DSLRs were alive to begin with...they aren't going to start lobbying for equal rights, and lens mount divorce?

cxdoo · 11-02-2015, 05:30 AM

Originally posted by biz-engineer

DSLR won't disappear any time soon, but the "do it all" DSLR will slowly disappear, as a lot of people only need a mirrorless for what they are doing

Since when 'need' had anything to do with it?

In my, admittedly backwater, part of the world, people buy DSLRs (and very expensive ones!) because that's the 'best' ( or 'real' or 'proper' or whatever) camera. Based on the looks (and then price) only.
Lens hoods backwards, flash popping out and all that included.

I believe mirrorless still has some length to go before it's perceived as such.

**Digitalis** · 11-02-2015, 05:38 AM

Originally posted by cxdoo

Lens hoods backwards, flash popping out and all that included.

*facepalm*

reh321 · 11-02-2015, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by cxdoo

Since when 'need' had anything to do with it?

In my, admittedly backwater, part of the world, people buy DSLRs (and very expensive ones!) because that's the 'best' ( or 'real' or 'proper' or whatever) camera. Based on the looks (and then price) only.
Lens hoods backwards, flash popping out and all that included.

I believe mirrorless still has some length to go before it's perceived as such.

In recent years, my primary goal has been to leave no doubt .... I am not a professional.
Most of the pictures I take I want to be "candids" - I want people barely (or not at all) aware of my presence;
I want my picture to show what was true before my camera and I showed up.
For me, a black DSLR is absolutely the worst image.

cxdoo · 11-02-2015, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by reh321

For me, a black DSLR is absolutely the worst image.

I fully understand you, however people like you (or me) are not representative of majority of DSLR users where I live. These people don't get that their phone is good enough for their use. Got a baby? Getting married? Travelling? Boom, gotta have a proper photo camera AND a proper video camera. And proper is most of the time, a black brick.

RonHendriks1966 · 11-02-2015, 07:29 AM

Japan is still low and that is an important market for Pentax. Europe is stil in recession looking at the sales numbers. Overall the sales units go down (p&s) while sales yen's are keeping their ground.

normhead · 11-02-2015, 07:41 AM

I guess the idea that MILCs were a fad that has run it's course just hasn't crossed anyone's mind. At this point, a lot of us have had a look and said "thanks, but no." That doesn't mean they don't have a place in the world. I know people who never stopped using rangefinder cameras. There's room for every bit of tech. Niche markets etc. But with this quarter, the idea of un-interruted growth eventually killing the DSLR market is dead. It can't happen.

The big mistake the MILC people make, is that they think MILC domination is inevitable. It's a fad. If it wanted to be everything for everyone there would have had to be better AF, tracking,a low light viewfinder solution, and it would have have proved to be technically better than DSLRs. With all due respect to the great experiment...it's not like that. If you want the best of anything technically, you don't buy MILC. Most people prefer to see what's there, without it being interpreted by a piece of technology. And that's not going to change. It has more going against it than it does going for it.

There was always going to be a limit to the number of people who would accept, the trade offs MILC offers for the lighter weight (or some would say cheap construction). This could be just temporary set back, or it could be a sign the MILC has saturated it's market, and Sony is doomed.

**Rondec** · 11-02-2015, 07:54 AM

SLR market is a mature market. Five or six years ago, people would upgrade their SLRs every cycle to get real benefits that were visible in real life shooting. Now, the upgrade benefit isn't necessarily visible. How much real world benefit going from a D7100 to a D7200? Some for sure, but power users are the most likely ones to see such a benefit.

On the other hand, mirrorless is just hitting that point where the technology is maturing. Up till now there has been reason to update your mirrorless with each cycle, but I think people are going to hold on to their mirrorless longer, meaning that their sales will plateau as well.

reh321 · 11-02-2015, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by normhead

If it wanted to be everything for everyone there would have had to be better AF, tracking,a low light viewfinder solution,

If I were taking a picture in a darkish area, I would use a K-02 if it existed. Even my Q, with its limited LCD, gives me a much much better view in low light than my K-30 does, but of course the larger sensor of the K-30 is good in darkish situations (but a K-02...)

RonHendriks1966 · 11-02-2015, 08:37 AM

So there is one mysterie for me in these figures.

Just looking at a few popular camera's.....

Nikon D750 cost 1859 dollar and in my country it's 2150 dollar on current rates.
Canon 7D ii cost 1469 dollar and in my country it's 1653 dollar.
Pentax K-3ii cost 897 dollar and in my country it's 1102 dollar.

And still when I look at shipping price for dslr the Amerika's pay 34 % more for the inventory then Europe!

11-02-2015, 04:04 AM - 2 Likes	#1
Kunzite Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Romania Posts: 15,132	CIPA statistics for September - those DSLRs just won't die Hello, CIPA published their usual production/shipment data for September. Despite claims that DSLRs are being replaced by MILCs, smartphones, kitchen owens and whatever, the DSLR production figures show an increase (while the MILCs declined). For the entire year, the DSLRs could have a slight decline in units but an increase in value (as shipment figures should follow the production ones). We have 3 months of data which could change things one way or another, though. http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201509_e.pdf I'd say Ricoh Imaging was right to think the DSLR market will stabilize (that was back when MILCs were "gaining" rapidly). It also means the decision to make the K-mount FF DSLR is not that crazy; it's still simultaneously serving the much larger market and their loyal user base i.e. us. A win-win scenario. Last edited by Kunzite; 11-02-2015 at 04:25 AM.

11-02-2015, 07:41 AM	#12
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	I guess the idea that MILCs were a fad that has run it's course just hasn't crossed anyone's mind. At this point, a lot of us have had a look and said "thanks, but no." That doesn't mean they don't have a place in the world. I know people who never stopped using rangefinder cameras. There's room for every bit of tech. Niche markets etc. But with this quarter, the idea of un-interruted growth eventually killing the DSLR market is dead. It can't happen. The big mistake the MILC people make, is that they think MILC domination is inevitable. It's a fad. If it wanted to be everything for everyone there would have had to be better AF, tracking,a low light viewfinder solution, and it would have have proved to be technically better than DSLRs. With all due respect to the great experiment...it's not like that. If you want the best of anything technically, you don't buy MILC. Most people prefer to see what's there, without it being interpreted by a piece of technology. And that's not going to change. It has more going against it than it does going for it. There was always going to be a limit to the number of people who would accept, the trade offs MILC offers for the lighter weight (or some would say cheap construction). This could be just temporary set back, or it could be a sign the MILC has saturated it's market, and Sony is doomed. Last edited by normhead; 11-02-2015 at 07:47 AM.

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11-02-2015, 04:24 AM	#2
pacu Forum Member Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 91	The news about their demise were greatly exaggerated...

11-02-2015, 04:43 AM	#3
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	The medium to long term future of SLRs is uncertain. In the short term, they will be fine. Hopefully Ricoh is putting some efforts into R and D with regard to mirrorless options, even if they won't launch such a camera for awhile. Feels like entry level SLR could shift to mirrorless with EVF if it brings down cost. In the end, most photographers buy based on price, features and glass. "Common" folks buy a camera based on features and price. At this point, other than better video, there is little difference that the average user will see between a similarly priced SLR and mirrorless camera. The whole shorter registration distance makes little difference to most photographers either. I know it is a big deal to Forumites. but most people don't want to be able to mount thirty different mounts of lenses on their camera, they just want to be able to mount three or four lenses, without an adapter and have them autofocus and meter correctly.

11-02-2015, 04:57 AM - 1 Like	#4
cxdoo Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Limassol, Cyprus Posts: 1,150	Mirrorless will start seriously denting DSLRs once they're cheaper for the same/better performance. Hipsters are fringe market.

11-02-2015, 04:59 AM	#5
biz-engineer Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2015 Photos: Gallery Posts: 12,232	DSLR won't disappear any time soon, but the "do it all" DSLR will slowly disappear, as a lot of people only need a mirrorless for what they are doing (IMO fast PDAF tracking for landscape is just not needed). DSLR might get more specialized as it already is but not everyone know it: some people use a D4s for portraits.... :-) For some reasons, the Pentax FF might still land in the "do it all" (fully featured heavy expensive like the D810), and might get its average share of market in the Pentax land only, simply because of limited resources and k mount volume.

11-02-2015, 05:09 AM - 4 Likes	#6
Digitalis Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Melbourne, Victoria Photos: Gallery Posts: 11,694	I wasn't aware DSLRs were alive to begin with...they aren't going to start lobbying for equal rights, and lens mount divorce?

11-02-2015, 05:30 AM	#7
cxdoo Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Limassol, Cyprus Posts: 1,150	Originally posted by biz-engineer DSLR won't disappear any time soon, but the "do it all" DSLR will slowly disappear, as a lot of people only need a mirrorless for what they are doing Since when 'need' had anything to do with it? In my, admittedly backwater, part of the world, people buy DSLRs (and very expensive ones!) because that's the 'best' ( or 'real' or 'proper' or whatever) camera. Based on the looks (and then price) only. Lens hoods backwards, flash popping out and all that included. I believe mirrorless still has some length to go before it's perceived as such.

11-02-2015, 05:38 AM	#8
Digitalis Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Melbourne, Victoria Photos: Gallery Posts: 11,694	Originally posted by cxdoo Lens hoods backwards, flash popping out and all that included. facepalm

11-02-2015, 07:10 AM	#9
reh321 Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: South Bend, IN, USA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 23,179	Originally posted by cxdoo Since when 'need' had anything to do with it? In my, admittedly backwater, part of the world, people buy DSLRs (and very expensive ones!) because that's the 'best' ( or 'real' or 'proper' or whatever) camera. Based on the looks (and then price) only. Lens hoods backwards, flash popping out and all that included. I believe mirrorless still has some length to go before it's perceived as such. In recent years, my primary goal has been to leave no doubt .... I am not a professional. Most of the pictures I take I want to be "candids" - I want people barely (or not at all) aware of my presence; I want my picture to show what was true before my camera and I showed up. For me, a black DSLR is absolutely the worst image.

11-02-2015, 07:24 AM	#10
cxdoo Pentaxian Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Limassol, Cyprus Posts: 1,150	Originally posted by reh321 For me, a black DSLR is absolutely the worst image. I fully understand you, however people like you (or me) are not representative of majority of DSLR users where I live. These people don't get that their phone is good enough for their use. Got a baby? Getting married? Travelling? Boom, gotta have a proper photo camera AND a proper video camera. And proper is most of the time, a black brick.

11-02-2015, 07:29 AM	#11
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675	Japan is still low and that is an important market for Pentax. Europe is stil in recession looking at the sales numbers. Overall the sales units go down (p&s) while sales yen's are keeping their ground.

11-02-2015, 07:54 AM	#13
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	SLR market is a mature market. Five or six years ago, people would upgrade their SLRs every cycle to get real benefits that were visible in real life shooting. Now, the upgrade benefit isn't necessarily visible. How much real world benefit going from a D7100 to a D7200? Some for sure, but power users are the most likely ones to see such a benefit. On the other hand, mirrorless is just hitting that point where the technology is maturing. Up till now there has been reason to update your mirrorless with each cycle, but I think people are going to hold on to their mirrorless longer, meaning that their sales will plateau as well.

11-02-2015, 08:01 AM	#14
reh321 Pentaxian Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: South Bend, IN, USA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 23,179	Originally posted by normhead If it wanted to be everything for everyone there would have had to be better AF, tracking,a low light viewfinder solution, If I were taking a picture in a darkish area, I would use a K-02 if it existed. Even my Q, with its limited LCD, gives me a much much better view in low light than my K-30 does, but of course the larger sensor of the K-30 is good in darkish situations (but a K-02...)

11-02-2015, 08:37 AM	#15
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675	So there is one mysterie for me in these figures. Just looking at a few popular camera's..... Nikon D750 cost 1859 dollar and in my country it's 2150 dollar on current rates. Canon 7D ii cost 1469 dollar and in my country it's 1653 dollar. Pentax K-3ii cost 897 dollar and in my country it's 1102 dollar. And still when I look at shipping price for dslr the Amerika's pay 34 % more for the inventory then Europe!