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01-28-2016, 05:58 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
Regarding Sony, I don't remember ever seeing them in the number one spot in Japan. Olympus has always been on top
See the second slide in the original post. in 2014 Sony was on top in MILC. Interestingly they were also on top in Digital Video Camera and Digital photo frame. In '15 they dropped to second in MILC and Digital video camera, and dropped out of the top three in photo frame.

01-28-2016, 06:13 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by rangercarp Quote
See the second slide in the original post. in 2014 Sony was on top in MILC. Interestingly they were also on top in Digital Video Camera and Digital photo frame. In '15 they dropped to second in MILC and Digital video camera, and dropped out of the top three in photo frame.
Ah yes. You're quite right.

As far as I know this is showing the number of units sold. So in a way, it may not be all that significant. I'm sure the average selling price for Olympus MILCs is less than Sony, so it seems unlikely that Olympus makes more money on what they're selling. Also, in compacts, quite a lot of what Sony sells is going to be the RX100 series, which is sells for more than double the price of an average compact.

I think Ricoh is also limited in DSLRs in that they only compete in one half of the market. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2016, when they are also active in the full frame area.
01-28-2016, 01:17 PM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
Ah yes. You're quite right.

As far as I know this is showing the number of units sold. So in a way, it may not be all that significant. I'm sure the average selling price for Olympus MILCs is less than Sony, so it seems unlikely that Olympus makes more money on what they're selling. Also, in compacts, quite a lot of what Sony sells is going to be the RX100 series, which is sells for more than double the price of an average compact.

I think Ricoh is also limited in DSLRs in that they only compete in one half of the market. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2016, when they are also active in the full frame area.
Ricoh will pick up market share assuming the full frame is priced under the market (as with the K-3 and 645Z), but this will happen with the overall market shrinking. The proctologist from Tokyo (or Peoria) used to vacation with an SLR around his neck, and now he takes photos with his smartphone. If the traditional camera manufacturers want revenue growth, it will have to come from somewhere other than traditional camera and lens sales. At best, those sales will remain flat in the future given phones for consumers have effectively free cameras. The financial outlook isn't great for anyone in this space.

Last edited by quant2325; 01-29-2016 at 04:15 PM.
01-28-2016, 01:31 PM   #19
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I'm not so sure.
Even the smartphone production gets close to its limits by now.
People aiming at quality will sooner or later come back from this pseudo-progress smartphones have inducted in portable imagery.

01-28-2016, 02:03 PM   #20
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It would not surprise me if the recently released retro-look Olympus mirrorless would boost its sales even more. Nice looking, nicely featured micro four-thirds camera very much in the tradition of the popular Pen-F.
01-28-2016, 03:41 PM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
I'm not so sure.
Even the smartphone production gets close to its limits by now.
People aiming at quality will sooner or later come back from this pseudo-progress smartphones have inducted in portable imagery.
For the first time since 2007 Apple projects lower unit sales of its coming upgrade phone (iPhone7) than the version it replaces.
01-28-2016, 03:53 PM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
For the first time since 2007 Apple projects lower unit sales of its coming upgrade phone (iPhone7) than the version it replaces.
Not a worry. Apple could shut down production of everything for 5 years and still pay dividends, make billions in earnings from iTunes, plus rake in billions on the interest on their $100+ billion cash reserves. Their management are very lucky to enjoy a huge 'failure buffer'.
01-28-2016, 03:54 PM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Not a worry. Apple could shut down production of everything for 5 years and still pay dividends, make billions in earnings from iTunes, plus rake in billions on the interest on their $100+ billion cash reserves. Their management are very lucky to enjoy a huge 'failure buffer'.
But the Street has decided they are Dooomed.

01-28-2016, 04:16 PM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
For the first time since 2007 Apple projects lower unit sales of its coming upgrade phone (iPhone7) than the version it replaces.
Last year a smartphone was shipped for 1 out of every 5 people alive. At some point the market had to become saturated...and not everyone is on a 1 year upgrade cycle...

A smartphone was shipped for 1 of every 5 people alive in 2015
01-28-2016, 04:40 PM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
.

I think Ricoh is also limited in DSLRs in that they only compete in one half of the market. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2016, when they are also active in the full frame area.
I hope you're not thinking FF is literally half the market, JPT.

The guesses around here have been about ten percent.

Canon and Nikon profits are based on APS-C, which lets them do the R&D for FF.
01-28-2016, 04:42 PM   #26
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Not in terms of volume, but it might be as profitable as APS-C, though. Pentax' product structure is different than Canon/Nikon's.
01-28-2016, 08:23 PM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
I hope you're not thinking FF is literally half the market, JPT.

The guesses around here have been about ten percent.

Canon and Nikon profits are based on APS-C, which lets them do the R&D for FF.
I was thinking more about the number of models they sell. Canon and Nikon sell at a lot more price points. I don't think full frame DSLRs make up half of the units sold. But I also don't think that 10% estimate would hold up for Japan. A lot of the APS-C market seems to have been taken by mirrorless cameras in Japan. Also the Japanese tend to spend quite freely on hobbies in my experience. There seem to be large numbers of retirees on generous pensions who spend small fortunes on camera stuff. I'm guessing it would be more like 25% for full frame DSLRs versus APS-C DSLRs now, but I have absolutely no way of backing that up!
01-28-2016, 09:36 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
but I have absolutely no way of backing that up!

Yeah, in the absence of figures, I'm not convinced by the logic.


FWIW, according to CIPA stats, only around 1 in 7 lenses sold in Japan are full frame, compared to about 1 in 4 for the rest of the world.


And of course many of those lenses are actually ending up on crop cameras.

Last edited by clackers; 01-29-2016 at 04:29 PM.
01-29-2016, 04:34 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by rawr Quote
Not a worry. Apple could shut down production of everything for 5 years and still pay dividends, make billions in earnings from iTunes, plus rake in billions on the interest on their $100+ billion cash reserves. Their management are very lucky to enjoy a huge 'failure buffer'.
Apple is sitting on $215.7 billion in cash (i.e., cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities). Most of it is overseas, and will be taxed when repatriated. So Apple is either: 1) Waiting for a tax benefit from Congress; 2) Waiting for the right acquisitions; or 3) Waiting to spend it elsewhere. Buybacks? They have to use the cash for something, but there is the tax issue of repatriation. The Apple Car--the ultimate connective device--is likely not on the aggressive pace optimists hoped for and there is a rumored hiring freeze. Apple TV is doing well. Perhaps Apple will provide its own programming in the future? iPhone sales are still excellent, just not at the previous pace. Cameras? Cameras will get better and better for the iPhones. There are already "cameras" that the iPhone can snap into. The sensors will get larger and better, too. The future of the consumer camera market is the smartphone.
01-29-2016, 04:47 PM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by quant2325 Quote
Apple TV is doing well. Perhaps Apple will provide its own programming in the future?
Apple considering original TV shows to boost 'cable-like' streaming coming in Sept. - report

Rumor: Apple has 'hundreds of staff' working on virtual & augmented reality projects

But there are also stories that the Apple 'Culture' hinder recruitment and talent retention...

Apple culture hinders recruitment and talent retention efforts, report says
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