It's all about money but all the money in the world cannot turn nothing into anything over night. So let'd speculate some more:
1) Sony needs like an year from the "announcement moment" - 30 january to deliver a FF sensor. And Sony makes sensors for ages, Samsung (big ones) for a few months. So, they can "announce" a FF camera at Photokina no problem but deliver?! Me thinks not
;
2) What really makes sense and is doable? IMO prepare for a FF camera by making another one with what the FF will share as much as possible. Sort of K10 - K20D. So, if they think the K20Ds body is too small this is the first step they'll make. If they'll think an Alu or AlMg body is "more professional" this is the second step. If they'll change the body in size then a >= 3" gorgeous LCD like the competition is very possible;
3) Analyse what are the weakest links and strongest points in what Pentax-Samsung have today. IMO weakeast in the sense of a professional camera are: mettering system, AF system, shutter system. Strongest would be the sensor (more so in a second iteration with some tweaks). So, if the might of Samsung can produce what Pentax-Samsung engineers can think of then what do we have?
A new camera with APS-C sensor which tests a lot of new systems for the "big brother" next year.
4) PRIME processor - if this is maintained "as such" for a sensor of over 24 Mp then the fps could be arguable guessed @ 1-2 fps. No good! Then a PRIME 2 processor is needed and if that one could make 5 fps @ 24 Mp guess how many can it do @ 14,6 Mp?
5) Very few outside Pentax-Samsung know for sure what systems were in work when K20D was about to be launched. Maybe they had some improvements almost ready and decided to bypass them because of the "weakest link theory". That meaning why putting a very powerfull new processing system when the shutter mechanism anyway can do only 3 fps. So on and so forth ...
6) My gut feeling is this: at Photokina we will see at least 2 cameras: one APS-C D300 killer with whatever is needed from the above and with the dual role of taking the heat to the big boys and restore the "professional estime" for Pentax users or people atracted to Pentax but who percieve it as "not professional". The other will be a mock up FF under glass with many of the systems common with the first and different sensor. And a third one VERY possible (see bellow) with an ETA nov-december X-mass shopping time.
7) Lenses. For me at least it's a pipe dream to think that old glass will cope with a 24 over Mp FF sensor. Not even the mighty Fa 31 Ltd may not be up to the task and any doubtfull ones can look a bit at the many L glass on the 21 Mp Canon sensor. The old FA Ltd lines of production I think are dissmantled and IMO the whole Hoya plan it's that: maintain Pentax as a manufacturer and make it grow only to expand the very lucrative lens business. Think for a second, Hoya already has Tokina but this is sort of a "second tier" in the C and N world. If they can make and sell as many * and Ltd glass they will have a vaste and closed market only for themselfs and this is the game. And unfortunatelly this is why I also think we will see an even lower DSLR than K200D to make the access to Pentax world easier for first time buyers.
And most of all I think that
Hoya will make the Pentax FF system DFA* and DFA Limiteds only. That means professional glass only and for an upper price category than others but (I hope) with splendid results. And it concurs with the "niche aproach" Ned often said it's the Pentax future. So they could "subsidise" a bit the bodies to earn more from the lenses. Sort of a printer mfgr which sells printers at a lower cost only to earn more from the overpriced ink.
Hoya wants to make a bigger market share for Pentax and exploit our legendary LBA
Conclusion: this year is about APS-C (bodies and lenses), next will be about FF.
My 2 eurocents (VAT included),
Radu