[Entropy]

I don't know what to beleave.

The current lens roadmap suggests that this predicition will slide off the wall like crap. And we all know that developing new lenses takes time.

But I've got some wild ideas. Samsung says they are working at a FF sensor. Samsung have developed no bodies, and have launched no lenses. But, they do have some kind of relationship with Schneider.
So, one posible scenario is a co-development between the three of them. Result: A full frame body developed by Samsung and Pentax, and a basic rebadged lens lineup made by Schneider.

I don't know if this idea makes any sense. Because I have no idea what Schneider are doing nowadays. But it could be posible, if they do have the resources.

As far as I know the Schneider "partnership" is "putting the Schneider name on Tokina glass".

As to a Pentax FF - Given that Samsung has made announcements of a FF sensor and (I believe) an FF body, a Pentax FF is inevitable. Samsung and Pentax are so tightly coupled in the DSLR arena that there's no way that Samsung would release a body and Pentax wouldn't. (Partly because they'd be essentially the same.)

It might be that the FF body has Samsung as the prime developer of the whole unit though, whereas for past units they were probably a co-developer that mainly focused on the electronics with Pentax doing the optics and mechanicals.

[Fototim]

As far as I know the Schneider "partnership" is "putting the Schneider name on Tokina glass".

Not Tokina glass, glass co deloped by Pentax and Tokina. Besides that nit, you are basically right about the past.

But, does that imply that Scheider is dead as a glass developer and manufactorer?

[kenyee]

Given that Samsung has made announcements of a FF sensor and (I believe) an FF body, a Pentax FF is inevitable.

Ditto. I think it's inevitable. I'm hoping for a $2K price but wouldn't be surprised if it were $3K because it'll have double the K20D's resolution...

It's all about money but all the money in the world cannot turn nothing into anything over night. So let'd speculate some more:

1) Sony needs like an year from the "announcement moment" - 30 january to deliver a FF sensor. And Sony makes sensors for ages, Samsung (big ones) for a few months. So, they can "announce" a FF camera at Photokina no problem but deliver?! Me thinks not ;
2) What really makes sense and is doable? IMO prepare for a FF camera by making another one with what the FF will share as much as possible. Sort of K10 - K20D. So, if they think the K20Ds body is too small this is the first step they'll make. If they'll think an Alu or AlMg body is "more professional" this is the second step. If they'll change the body in size then a >= 3" gorgeous LCD like the competition is very possible;
3) Analyse what are the weakest links and strongest points in what Pentax-Samsung have today. IMO weakeast in the sense of a professional camera are: mettering system, AF system, shutter system. Strongest would be the sensor (more so in a second iteration with some tweaks). So, if the might of Samsung can produce what Pentax-Samsung engineers can think of then what do we have?
A new camera with APS-C sensor which tests a lot of new systems for the "big brother" next year.
4) PRIME processor - if this is maintained "as such" for a sensor of over 24 Mp then the fps could be arguable guessed @ 1-2 fps. No good! Then a PRIME 2 processor is needed and if that one could make 5 fps @ 24 Mp guess how many can it do @ 14,6 Mp?
5) Very few outside Pentax-Samsung know for sure what systems were in work when K20D was about to be launched. Maybe they had some improvements almost ready and decided to bypass them because of the "weakest link theory". That meaning why putting a very powerfull new processing system when the shutter mechanism anyway can do only 3 fps. So on and so forth ...
6) My gut feeling is this: at Photokina we will see at least 2 cameras: one APS-C D300 killer with whatever is needed from the above and with the dual role of taking the heat to the big boys and restore the "professional estime" for Pentax users or people atracted to Pentax but who percieve it as "not professional". The other will be a mock up FF under glass with many of the systems common with the first and different sensor. And a third one VERY possible (see bellow) with an ETA nov-december X-mass shopping time.
7) Lenses. For me at least it's a pipe dream to think that old glass will cope with a 24 over Mp FF sensor. Not even the mighty Fa 31 Ltd may not be up to the task and any doubtfull ones can look a bit at the many L glass on the 21 Mp Canon sensor. The old FA Ltd lines of production I think are dissmantled and IMO the whole Hoya plan it's that: maintain Pentax as a manufacturer and make it grow only to expand the very lucrative lens business. Think for a second, Hoya already has Tokina but this is sort of a "second tier" in the C and N world. If they can make and sell as many * and Ltd glass they will have a vaste and closed market only for themselfs and this is the game. And unfortunatelly this is why I also think we will see an even lower DSLR than K200D to make the access to Pentax world easier for first time buyers.
And most of all I think that Hoya will make the Pentax FF system DFA* and DFA Limiteds only. That means professional glass only and for an upper price category than others but (I hope) with splendid results. And it concurs with the "niche aproach" Ned often said it's the Pentax future. So they could "subsidise" a bit the bodies to earn more from the lenses. Sort of a printer mfgr which sells printers at a lower cost only to earn more from the overpriced ink.
Hoya wants to make a bigger market share for Pentax and exploit our legendary LBA

Conclusion: this year is about APS-C (bodies and lenses), next will be about FF.

My 2 eurocents (VAT included),
Radu

[Pål Jensen]

1) Sony needs like an year from the "announcement moment" - 30 january to deliver a FF sensor. And Sony makes sensors for ages, Samsung (big ones) for a few months. So, they can "announce" a FF camera at Photokina no problem but deliver?! Me thinks not ;
Radu

...but anouncing a camera at least a year before its release is optional and not something Pentax have to follow...
Using Sony's announcement to determine Pentax release schedule makes no sense

[Pål Jensen]

6) My gut feeling is this: at Photokina we will see at least 2 cameras: one APS-C D300 killer with whatever is needed from the above and with the dual role of taking the heat to the big boys and restore the "professional estime" for Pentax users or people atracted to Pentax but who percieve it as "not professional". The other will be a mock up FF under glass with many of the systems common with the first and different sensor. And a third one VERY possible (see bellow) with an ETA nov-december X-mass shopping time.Radu

A pro body with 14,6mp sensor makes little sense except as a K20D replacement. I'm sure the K30D will use that sensor (unless another one is in the works) and move that camera upmarket. The K200D will probably be transformed into the K300D with the 14,6mp sensor. Another 14,6mp camera above the K20D will just cabnnibalize sales...
A FF K3D makes sense right now in the current line-up. K30D a year from now is my guess.

[Edvinas]

Well, I was always sceptical about Pentax FF because of lack of FF lenses.
But now, when every other competitor either has or will have FF in the nearest future, I think that Samsung will come up wit FF sensor quite soon. It would be very nice if they would follow Nikon path and would introduce 12-14 megapixel FF sensor with excellent dynamic range and excellent ISO performance. But probably it won't happen and we will see 20+ megapixel FF sensor.
Pentax didn't stop manufacturing FA limiteds. New DA* telelenses are FF (correct me is I am wrong). Some DA limiteds are also FF. So, Pentax needs just to incorporate SDM and weatherseal FA* 28-70mm f/2.8, FA* 80-200mm f/2.8 and put them back into production. And they will have FF lens lineup.

[rparmar]

Here's my take.

The D300 is not the camera to beat. In many ways the K20D has already done that. The camera to beat is the D700. But the K20D already has more than 12.1MP and a fantastic sensor to boot. Thus the quickest way into the FF arena is to release a camera exactly like the K20D, but FF. This will inherit the K20D weaknesses, the slow AF and frame rate. But on the other hand it will inherit the K20D strengths as well.

For lenses just keep the FA Limiteds rolling until new models specific to this FF line emerge. I disagree with statements like the following, which seem to have no basis in fact:

For me at least it's a pipe dream to think that old glass will cope with a 24 over Mp FF sensor. Not even the mighty Fa 31 Ltd may not be up to the task

At Photokina Pentax can announce this camera and a lens line-up, delivering on the body a few months later. They can also announce a future high-end model with shutter and processor improvements and, with one FF model on the market, have quite a bit of lead time to turn the second model into reality.

Personally though, the only reason I'd want FF is to have a better viewfinder.

[bdery]

Can someone help explain this to me?

1. A lens' focal length is measured in terms of it's distance from the sensore/film plane correct?
2. FF lenses are designed so that the projected circle of light is optimzed to make contact with the full sensor/film frame correct?
3. DA lens' projected circle of light is smaller due to the size of the digital sensor correct?

So now I am just thinking out loud using my 1st grade experience of what happens to sunlight as I move a magnifying glass closer and farther away from a dry leaf. Usually the type of optics I deal with are the laser variety...

Why not design a body that allows for the movement of the sensor plane to be closer to the lens mount when a DA lens is attached to achieve the same size circle of light as a FF lens? Obviously the body would need to be larger and you may need a special viewfinder to have the correct adjustment for focus but is there a reason why this wouldn't work?

Again this is coming from my very basic novice understanding of SLRs in general so if I am way off base please do not flame me, please just tell me why it wouldn't work so I learn something new today

Focal length is defined as the distance at which parallel rays (coming from infinity, if you will) converge and meet. Visit Wikipedia if you want drawings and such. In other words, with an object at infinity, the image will be located at the focal point, and the distance between the focal point and the center of the lens (roughly speaking) is the focal length.

Lenses made for digital have a diameter that is too small for full frame, they will always create a black circle (misleadingly refered as vigneting) on a full frame sensor.

[Roberts]

[QUOTE=Fototim;287541]

As far as I know the Schneider "partnership" is "putting the Schneider name on Tokina glass".
QUOTE]Not Tokina glass, glass co deloped by Pentax and Tokina. Besides that nit, you are basically right about the past.

But, does that imply that Scheider is dead as a glass developer and manufactorer?

Is this the same Schnaider whose name is on lenses for samsung - Schneider Optics - Home ? If Yes, then Schneider is not dead.
Besides, they produce B+W filters, too.

Here's my take.

The D300 is not the camera to beat. In many ways the K20D has already done that. The camera to beat is the D700. But the K20D already has more than 12.1MP and a fantastic sensor to boot. Thus the quickest way into the FF arena is to release a camera exactly like the K20D, but FF. This will inherit the K20D weaknesses, the slow AF and frame rate. But on the other hand it will inherit the K20D strengths as well.

For lenses just keep the FA Limiteds rolling until new models specific to this FF line emerge. I disagree with statements like the following, which seem to have no basis in fact:



At Photokina Pentax can announce this camera and a lens line-up, delivering on the body a few months later. They can also announce a future high-end model with shutter and processor improvements and, with one FF model on the market, have quite a bit of lead time to turn the second model into reality.

Personally though, the only reason I'd want FF is to have a better viewfinder.

I am sorry but you missunderstood most of what I said. Some of you may want desperately to see a FF from Pentax and altough I don't care much I don't mind at all. You make some big mistakes in your assement IMO.
Nikon sells maybe 20 D300 for every K20D Pentax sells. You can look @ popphoto and see that D300 body is amont top 5 sellers in US (and the only "pro" from those 5). D300 brings lots of money to Nikon both by itself and in lens it sales. To believe that Pentax could resolve it's financial problems and grow by some 3k FF body it's not realistic at all (IMO). And to say that K20D is a match for D300 in anything else than IQ it's not very true. I argumented at large why I see a future APS-C with upper capabilities and I don't wanna repeat my arguments.

About lens again IMO the only lenses that could match in quality a 25 Mp sensor are FA 31 and 43 Ltd. FA 77 it's not up to task in resolution and to think one will buy a 3k camera to use a 100 USD old lens it's ... not practical. May be true for some Pentax fans but it's not a business model for growth.

The Pentax future (same as ALL THE OTHERS EXCEPT Olympus) is in APS-C for at least some years (and quite a few).

Radu

[benjikan]

A pro body with 14,6mp sensor makes no sense except as a K20D replacement. I'm sure the K30D will use that sensor (unless another one is in the works) and move that camera upmarket. The K200D will probably be transformed into the K300D with the 14,6mp sensor. Another 14,6mp camera above the K20D will just cabnnibalize sales...
A FF K3D makes sense right now in the current line-up. K30D a year from now is my guess.

I see it this way:

K2D = 28 Mega pixels (perhaps 24 to 30)
K20D = 14.6 Mega Pixels
K200D = 10.2 Mega Pixels
K2000D = 10.2 Mega Pixels

Ben

I am betting on a FF Pentax in September....Not a lot of money but I have this sixth sense about these sorts of things and my intuition says between 24-28 mega pixels. Under 3k € and 100 to 6400 iso. Three to Five FPS...........

Ben

Hi Benj
It's now that you can tell about that BOMB, not when the K20D saw the light. I would like 64 to 6400 ISO.

I still don't understand why people want a pre-announce lens roadmap to cover new FF lenses. That would spoil the party. Secrecy is the name of the game
Rui

[Pål Jensen]

Nikon sells maybe 20 D300 for every K20D Pentax sells. Radu

But the question is; how many Pentax D300 would Pentax sell? Not many, if you ask me. Most Pentax users will go for the K20D instead. Nikon has a very different user base and much larger user size than Pentax.

Pentax needs to have some distance between the models and that is best done with the sensors....

[Pål Jensen]

7) Lenses. For me at least it's a pipe dream to think that old glass will cope with a 24 over Mp FF sensor. Not even the mighty Fa 31 Ltd may not be up to the task and any doubtfull ones can look a bit at the many L glass on the 21 Mp Canon sensor. Radu

This is a myth. The "problem" with FF lenses is edge definition due to the angle light is hitting the sensors. Pentax/Samsung patents (used in the 14,6mp sensor) reduce this problem with 50%.
Whats more, FF sets in fact less demand on the lenses than smaller sensor. This is due to the fact that for certain output size, an APS sized image need to be magnified 50% more than the same image from an FF sensor. Hence, lens imperfection gets equally magnified.