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01-16-2017, 10:32 PM   #286
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Looks like Ricoh-Imaging sold some 40 % less units dslr in Japan last year then in 2015.

http://photorumors.com/2017/01/16/2016-bcn-awards-in-japan-canon-wins-in-alm...es/#more-86776

Some due to lower marketshare and some due to overall lower camera sales. Still a K-1 brings more in then a K-S2.

31 januari there will be new figures from Ricoh.
From Ricoh's financial figures, we know camera sales increased from 2015 to 2016, yet for BCN to be correct, all the other manufacturers would have had to increase, by even bigger percentages.

Hence, BCN figures are unlikely to represent the actual market.

01-17-2017, 01:31 AM   #287
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
From Ricoh's financial figures, we know camera sales increased from 2015 to 2016, yet for BCN to be correct, all the other manufacturers would have had to increase, by even bigger percentages.

Hence, BCN figures are unlikely to represent the actual market.
BCN talks about units and Ricoh talks about Yen income. Before the quake Ricoh-Imaging sold some 25.000 units K-1 and then some new lenses for it and that simply makes a good revenue in yen.
01-22-2017, 02:15 PM   #288
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
For now, just the "Financial highlights" - more information, including a presentation, should be added soon.

Ricoh fights with decreased sales in some segments, and unfavorable exchange rates. However, Ricoh Imaging (and consequently "Pentax") isn't doing bad:

Financial Results:FY2017/03 | Global | Ricoh
thats good
01-23-2017, 03:03 AM   #289
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
BCN talks about units and Ricoh talks about Yen income. Before the quake Ricoh-Imaging sold some 25.000 units K-1 and then some new lenses for it and that simply makes a good revenue in yen.
No, BCN is an inaccurate measure of the market, if you've read JPT's posts.

He lives in Japan, he knows.

01-23-2017, 03:38 AM - 1 Like   #290
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
No, BCN is an inaccurate measure of the market, if you've read JPT's posts.

He lives in Japan, he knows.
. . . very little, but maybe more than nothing.

I'm sure BCN is accurate enough at collecting the data they claim to. Otherwise nobody would pay for their data. It's kind of interesting to see the year-on-year changes, as long you remain aware that the other half of the market could well be behaving quite differently.

To be honest, I'm not sure why it's that much of an issue. I've got enough financial things to think about, without dreaming up imaginary crises that don't belong to me.
01-23-2017, 03:48 AM - 1 Like   #291
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The problem with BCN's data is not the processing, but in that they're not using statistical sampling to get their data. Instead, there's a bunch of retailers - 23 is the latest count - supplying said data.
Raising the question: is that relevant for the entire Japanese market?
01-23-2017, 07:44 AM - 1 Like   #292
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At least the massive collapse of Nikon sales reported by BCN in Japan:




fits perfectly to Nikon's own failing camera/lens numbers:



So you can not really use the numbers as such, but the trends seem to be captured well.

And Pentax seems to be on a stable path as it looks, quite in contrast to what is happening to Nikon and Sony.
01-23-2017, 03:38 PM - 1 Like   #293
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
At least the massive collapse of Nikon sales reported by BCN in Japan:.
Look, I usually enjoy reading your provocative and informative posts, Beholder3, but since I've already taken Mistral75 (who is an honourable gentleman) to task over this same methodology, to be fair, it's your turn.

This famous news photo says it all about what happens when the proportions in your sample fail to represent the proportions in the population as a whole:


The very expensive phone polls didn't cater for the fact that not all the voters on that Tuesday in November could afford telephones - the less affluent Democratic Party supporters were less likely to be surveyed.

Like the BCN stats you rely on, it's a great example of 'selection bias' ... Selection bias - Wikipedia

JPT is modest in saying he doesn't know much about BCN, but clearly he does:
"BCN Ranking lists 23 retailers on its website. The ones of note for cameras are Bic Camera, Amazon (not as big as in other countries), a couple of more specialized camera retailers, a number of electronics chains that are not so serious about cameras, and a few other online retailers. I think that they have around 50%, but more towards the consumer end. If they claim 60%, it is probably a figure for the electronics market as a whole. On the whole, these are just not the shops people go to by a Pentax, or any specialised camera."
I know you've gone to a lot of effort, multiplying BCN percentages by CIPA figures and graphing them (you've put them on several threads), but they're *invalid*.

I'm assuming you have a scientific or engineering background, as I do.

What would your professor say of the lack of error bars - the uncertainty in your figures - when you confidently declare Nikon sold 248057 units last year?


Last edited by clackers; 01-23-2017 at 03:46 PM.
01-23-2017, 08:07 PM   #294
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Look, I usually enjoy reading your provocative and informative posts, Beholder3, but since I've already taken Mistral75 (who is an honourable gentleman) to task over this same methodology, to be fair, it's your turn.

This famous news photo says it all about what happens when the proportions in your sample fail to represent the proportions in the population as a whole:


The very expensive phone polls didn't cater for the fact that not all the voters on that Tuesday in November could afford telephones - the less affluent Democratic Party supporters were less likely to be surveyed.

Like the BCN stats you rely on, it's a great example of 'selection bias' ... Selection bias - Wikipedia

JPT is modest in saying he doesn't know much about BCN, but clearly he does:
"BCN Ranking lists 23 retailers on its website. The ones of note for cameras are Bic Camera, Amazon (not as big as in other countries), a couple of more specialized camera retailers, a number of electronics chains that are not so serious about cameras, and a few other online retailers. I think that they have around 50%, but more towards the consumer end. If they claim 60%, it is probably a figure for the electronics market as a whole. On the whole, these are just not the shops people go to by a Pentax, or any specialised camera."
I know you've gone to a lot of effort, multiplying BCN percentages by CIPA figures and graphing them (you've put them on several threads), but they're *invalid*.

I'm assuming you have a scientific or engineering background, as I do.

What would your professor say of the lack of error bars - the uncertainty in your figures - when you confidently declare Nikon sold 248057 units last year?
I'm surprised you would use an American election as your example; beholder3, according to profile being from East Timor, may or may not have your familiarity with the 1948 election, so for clarity we should mention that the {primitive} polls of the time showed Republican Thomas Dewey as the clear winner of the election - but the the only poll that matters, the one involving ballot boxes, re-elected Democrat Harry Truman {the dude holding the newspaper}
01-24-2017, 01:00 AM   #295
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
I'm surprised you would use an American election as your example; beholder3, according to profile being from East Timor, may or may not have your familiarity with the 1948 election, so for clarity we should mention that the {primitive} polls of the time showed Republican Thomas Dewey as the clear winner of the election - but the the only poll that matters, the one involving ballot boxes, re-elected Democrat Harry Truman {the dude holding the newspaper}
I think Beholder's German, IIRC, Reh321 - he did a series of excellent horse photos a while back. Great action shots.

You and I could also put the East Timor flag in our profiles.

The Truman-Dewey example is a famous one in Marketing/Research ... I wasn't being obscure!
01-24-2017, 01:17 AM - 1 Like   #296
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Like the BCN stats you rely on, it's a great example of 'selection bias' ... Selection bias - Wikipedia
Hm, I guess there is a lot to comment on from different perspectives:
  1. As far as scientifically robust data goes, I can not remember anything from anyone in this forum which could be called "valid", beyond personal opinion and belief. ALL "review" sites just publish more or less poorly concocted opinions based on completely irrelevant sample sizes. So what I write or anybody else (including site owners) writes is just that: Personal opinion / subjective interpretation not much different from "vanilla is better than chocolate".
    The single exception to this (in my view) are lensrentals optical bench measurements based on large samples.
  2. With "market" data this gets even worse. For business reasons you do not get a lot of info and vested interests in there can easily turn them all into propaganda lies.
  3. So in total you are absolutely right that BCN figures are not worth a lot. They could be total bullshot. Selection bias being one of the shortfalls.
  4. But then internet forums are entertainment facilities and all about communication and exchange of views, so I guess digesting the information from BCN is not wrong. It's just that every reader with a brain has to apply his own "take it with a grain of salt" filter and judge where she/he puts it and what she/he extracts from it.
    It's fun to read the data and interpret it, so I did. It's about the best market data we have with regards to brand shares. But yes, this "best" is still abysmal when judging from a scientific view.
    Many times we have data but no explanations. Look at CIPA monetary value figures: Did anybody ever explain what they mean? No. Go check what the average CIPA lens or body price is.
So in short: Yes, it can not be taken really seriously but it is better than most anything else we have got, because we have nothing.


QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
I'm surprised you would use an American election as your example; beholder3, according to profile being from East Timor, may or may not have your familiarity with the 1948 election, so for clarity we should mention that the {primitive} polls of the time showed Republican Thomas Dewey as the clear winner of the election - but the the only poll that matters, the one involving ballot boxes, re-elected Democrat Harry Truman {the dude holding the newspaper}
I'm not from East Timor (that is just fun, I think I should change it to some other nice place sometime), but thank you for the historical information. I'd say this happens all the time, even today.
01-24-2017, 01:43 AM   #297
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
I'm not from East Timor....
No kidding!
01-24-2017, 01:54 AM   #298
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
I'm not from East Timor
East of Timor is another place, a bit to the south as well.
01-24-2017, 08:52 PM   #299
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Hm, I guess there is a lot to comment on from different perspectives:

.
Yes, it is sad what passes for evidence on forums, but I think this one on the whole is very good.

It was big of you to say some of the things you did, consider me a fan of your posts - you do a lot of mythbusting.



01-31-2017, 09:33 AM   #300
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Third quarter figures ending december 31th 2016

New figures published.

https://www.ricoh.com/IR/financial_data/financial_result/data/29/q3_report.pdf

I looked true it briefly. What my analysis for the camera business is. There is a shift in market sales. The Americas are down a lot, like 40 %, but that is compensated with sales in Europe and elsewhere.

It looks like they expect that the year ending march 2017 will have the same sales numbers as the year before (in yen) at its best. So K-1 was able to keep the boat floating, but not bringing any growth. (The quake is of importanse here).
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