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01-31-2017, 09:38 AM   #301
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
New figures published.

https://www.ricoh.com/IR/financial_data/financial_result/data/29/q3_report.pdf

I looked true it briefly. What my analysis for the camera business is. There is a shift in market sales. The Americas are down a lot, like 40 %, but that is compensated with sales in Europe and elsewhere.

It looks like they expect that the year ending march 2017 will have the same sales numbers as the year before (in yen) at its best. So K-1 was able to keep the boat floating, but not bringing any growth. (The quake is of importanse here).
Tiny Font?

The problem is 40% decline in Americas. Execution has been spotty and they've turned over staff and strategy once again.

01-31-2017, 11:27 AM   #302
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
What my analysis for the camera business is. There is a shift in market sales. The Americas are down a lot, like 40 %, but that is compensated with sales in Europe and elsewhere.
As usual, there's no data about the camera business in there.
01-31-2017, 01:18 PM   #303
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
This famous news photo says it all about what happens when the proportions in your sample fail to represent the proportions in the population as a whole
In elections, a difference of 1% overall make or break it. It doesn't change anything if you have 49% or 51% market share on the opposite. Also a sample that is 50% of the market is far from negligible. This is not terrible, but truely great and likely to be far from bad. Even if there some bias.

And what bias? That people don't buy Pentax camera over Amazon? I did personally. A K3 and before a K5. My father and myself brought lenses on amazon too.There a few specialized shops and a few generic shops. So honestly it look the sampling is far from being that bad. And with 50% of the sales overall, this really a great sample.

Sure it may not really reflect say, US or german market but I don't think that's their objective neither.
01-31-2017, 03:30 PM   #304
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Tiny Font?

The problem is 40% decline in Americas. Execution has been spotty and they've turned over staff and strategy once again.
The 40 % decline is in yen. So with more expensive camera's, but lower yen/dollar rate you loose in units even more unique customers. My guess to this is that the number of customers over the running fiscal year is cut in half at least. That is at least an issue to address.

---------- Post added 31-01-17 at 23:32 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
As usual, there's no data about the camera business in there.
I give my analysis, based on what I read in the report. I know you see them as hogwash. That is fine. We see things different reading such a report.

01-31-2017, 03:38 PM   #305
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
The 40 % decline is in yen. So with more expensive camera's, but lower yen/dollar rate you loose in units even more unique customers. My guess to this is that the number of customers over the running fiscal year is cut in half at least. That is at least an issue to address.
Yen was strong until September, which hurts dollar-based unit sales. Yen has given back 90% of the summer advance, which is why KP is discounted $100 on the pre-order from the published price.

Problems in America leading to Japan's concerns about dSLR units here were primarily caused by the previous leadership of RIAC, according to my Dealer. Those were expressed last spring before the strong Yen.
01-31-2017, 04:08 PM   #306
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Problems in America leading to Japan's concerns about dSLR units here were primarily caused by the previous leadership of RIAC, according to my Dealer. Those were expressed last spring before the strong Yen.
Well they can build on that in the future. As long as they didn't loose to many dealers, then it can change back again. If they lost lots of sales points then the damage is done for some years.
01-31-2017, 04:26 PM   #307
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
Well they can build on that in the future. As long as they didn't loose to many dealers, then it can change back again. If they lost lots of sales points then the damage is done for some years.
Well I don't know anything any more but my Dealer has their Agreement back and they are happy.
01-31-2017, 08:32 PM - 1 Like   #308
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The interesting picture here is in the reported sales

Forecast consolidated sales to end March 2017 (page 22) - product Other i.e. cameras:

Domestic sales up 1.7%
Overseas sales up 11.7%
Comprising:
Americas up 2.4%
EMEA up 28.8%
Other regions up 2.1%
(And the nine months figures to end Dec are even better!)

Considering every other camera firm has seen falling sales this year Pentax have done an incredible job swimming against a market tide of declining camera sales and the Sony sensor production plant damage. Pentax significant growth contrasts with a background of declining sales in almost every other area of Ricoh business such as industrial products and printers.

So in short the K1 and Theta has done a lot more than just enable Pentax to tread water, it's actually enabled them to gain significant ground again. Hopefully they can continue to build on this momentum - the EMEA result is just astounding! Nikon and Sony whose sales collapsed in 2016 must now be looking at Pentax with a degree of envy. The move of Fuji into medium format and my Canon owning mate's assertion that Canon are reputed to be working on one too is evidence that Pentax have been doing a lot of things right in recent years. The 645Z, Theta and K1 triumvirate in particular have really gained market traction.

A credit to Pentax

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01-31-2017, 08:36 PM   #309
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QuoteOriginally posted by jonlg Quote
Forecast consolidated sales to end March 2017 (page 22) - product Other i.e. cameras:

Domestic sales up 1.7%
Overseas sales up 11.7%
Comprising:
Americas up 2.4%
EMEA up 28.8%
Other regions up 2.1%
(And the nine months figures to end Dec are even better!)

Considering every other camera firm has seen falling sales this year Pentax have done an incredible job swimming against a market tide of declining camera sales and the Sony sensor production plant damage. Pentax significant growth contrasts with a background of declining sales in almost every other area of Ricoh business such as industrial products and printers.

So in short the K1 and Theta has done a lot more than just enable Pentax to tread water, it's actually enabled them to gain significant ground again. Hopefully they can continue to build on this momentum - the EMEA result is just astounding! Nikon and Sony whose sales collapsed in 2016 must now be looking at Pentax with a degree of envy. The move of Fuji into medium format and my Canon owning mate's assertion that Canon are reputed to be working on one too is evidence that Pentax have been doing a lot of things right in recent years. The 645Z, Theta and K1 triumvirate in particular have really gained market traction.

A credit to Pentax

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Good analysis, Jonathan, we just have to remember there's no way of working out what percentage of the Other sales is due to cameras, and which is due to Leasing.
01-31-2017, 08:54 PM   #310
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QuoteOriginally posted by jonlg Quote
So in short the K1 and Theta has done a lot more than just enable Pentax to tread water, it's actually enabled them to gain significant ground again. Hopefully they can continue to build on this momentum - the EMEA result is just astounding! Nikon and Sony whose sales collapsed in 2016 must now be looking at Pentax with a degree of envy. The move of Fuji into medium format and my Canon owning mate's assertion that Canon are reputed to be working on one too is evidence that Pentax have been doing a lot of things right in recent years. The 645Z, Theta and K1 triumvirate in particular have really gained market traction.
Is the chasm between Nikon sales (smallest of the big 2 DSLR manufacturers) and Ricoh/Pentax sales still so enormous that we should not see a turn around of 3rd party lens manufacturers slow departure from K mount this year and likely next?
02-01-2017, 02:27 AM - 2 Likes   #311
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Clackers,

Interestingly when I looked at these figures in previous years the 'other' category featured several different businesses but this year in the notes to the accounts they explicitly state that 'other' refers to cameras. Thus the conclusion I am drawing is that this now more accurately reflects camera sales than in previous years but I might be wrong in that assumption.

As for your comment Mee I simply have no idea how much of the market Pentax need to secure to attract Sigma et al. I would imagine Nikon's sales are several multiples of Pentax but the truth is nobody knows. Also once Pentax have both a low cost and pro full frame lens range the issue becomes somewhat moot anyway because most people would rather shoot with manufacturer lenses. In the past as a teenager I bought Tamron or Sigma because I couldn't afford Pentax lenses even though I wanted them. As an adult I'm in a better position to do so although I accept the fact that Pentax need to build a cheaper 24-105mm f4.0, 70-200mm f4.0 as well as some basic primes. The issue though is given the cost of full frame DSLR how much of a market is there for people wanting to put cheap lenses on a 2000 camera and why wouldn't those people just buy legacy?

The brilliant thing to see is that one of the sleeping giants of the photographic world has stirred and is now one of the most innovative and active camera makers in the world. In one year they will have launched the K1, then the K70, now the KP retro APSC and finally in all likelihood a new high end fast action K3 successor. Couple that with in all probability 3-5 new lenses this year to go with the four launched last year and then add in a likely successor to the 645Z - perhaps with 100 megapixels and you can see just how reinvigorated the brand has become. There is simply no other camera maker in the world with such vitality at the moment and that should give us all cause for celebration. I'm certainly very proud to shoot Pentax. They also remain uniquely the only camera maker who can service your requirements from snowboarding with an action cam, shooting your birthday party with a Theta, travelling with a Q, shooting your children's sportsday on a K3ii, doing an on location model shoot with your K1 or shooting a commercial advertising campaign with the 645Z. No other imaging company in the world can match that...

'Pentax - the legend returns'

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02-01-2017, 02:29 AM - 1 Like   #312
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
Is the chasm between Nikon sales (smallest of the big 2 DSLR manufacturers) and Ricoh/Pentax sales still so enormous that we should not see a turn around of 3rd party lens manufacturers slow departure from K mount this year and likely next?
Yes, I would have thought so, Mee.

It's a duopoly, and who wants to write a game for Nintendo when there's the Playstation and Xbox?

If it's any comfort, there's no enthusiasm for Sony, Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic either.

Sigma executives can always say that despite the calls of a vocal minority on this forum, why would Pentaxians buy the 50mm Art when they didn't buy the 35, and why would they fork out for the 50-100 f1.8 when we didn't go for the 18-35?

In a declining market, companies bunker down and become risk averse.

Last edited by clackers; 02-01-2017 at 02:34 AM.
02-01-2017, 02:33 AM   #313
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QuoteOriginally posted by jonlg Quote
Clackers,

Interestingly when I looked at these figures in previous years the 'other' category featured several different businesses but this year in the notes to the accounts they explicitly state that 'other' refers to cameras. [/url]
Yes, if you read the text, Leasing is still in there.

In addition, as Mistral75 points out the Other division makes way too much money if you look at the CIPA figures for Japanese domestic camera spending. Cameras can't be all it does.

This is a plus for Pentax, able to weather storms with the protection of cash flow elsewhere.

A dangerous sign would be if it was separated, as Sony has done with cameras from sensors. That gives the board the option to sell it off.
02-01-2017, 02:52 AM   #314
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QuoteOriginally posted by jonlg Quote
As for your comment Mee I simply have no idea how much of the market Pentax need to secure to attract Sigma et al. I would imagine Nikon's sales are several multiples of Pentax but the truth is nobody knows.
Canon, Nikon and Sony have 91 % of the ilc market (dslr and milc). So that leaves 9 % of the market (just over 1 million units) for Panasonic, Olympus, Fujifilm and Pentax. Of those Pentax is probably the smallest.

Pentax does have a good year so far. It expects the same sales as previous year and that in a market that is declining. But they have more expensive products then previous years, so they sell less units to less unique customers. There is no cheap entry level camera in K-mount at the moment. The current line-up with K-70, KP and K-1 is fine, but expensive compared to what most people want to spend on a camera for family things. That makes the K-mount less interesting for third party's like Sigma.
02-01-2017, 03:08 AM   #315
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Why am i even subscribed to this thread that should be renamed the Pentax is doomed club and moved to the appropriate sub-forum.
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