[Rondec]

Is the chasm between Nikon sales (smallest of the big 2 DSLR manufacturers) and Ricoh/Pentax sales still so enormous that we should not see a turn around of 3rd party lens manufacturers slow departure from K mount this year and likely next?

Even if Ricoh had new sales that were close to Nikon levels, Nikon has a way stronger base from out selling Pentax for the last fifteen years plus. The slow down is evidence that folks aren't seeing new gear as providing that much benefit over their existing gear and so they just aren't buying new as quickly.

[OoKU]

http://www.ricoh.com/IR/data/pre/pdf/h29q2_1.pdf

[Mistral75]

Clackers,

Interestingly when I looked at these figures in previous years the 'other' category featured several different businesses but this year in the notes to the accounts they explicitly state that 'other' refers to cameras. Thus the conclusion I am drawing is that this now more accurately reflects camera sales than in previous years but I might be wrong in that assumption.

(...)

Just have a look at the document presenting the 9-month figures:

Other
Sales in the Other segment increased by 3.1% as compared to the previous corresponding period, to ¥83.6 billion due to the increase in income and profit at Leasing business. Camera business has expanded the products lineup such as Spherical cameras and Digital SLR (Single-lens reflex). As a result, operating profit in the Other segment increased by 53.2% as compared to the previous corresponding period,
to ¥3.1 billion.

Besides, if you compare the 9-month sales in the Other segment in Japan (JPY 71,385 million) with the 9-month sales of all camera makers in Japan (CIPA figures), i.e. JPY 112,353 million (cameras + lenses), you realise that the bulk of the sales of the Other segment in Japan is not related to cameras.

[monochrome]

USA remains the largest consumer market on earth, and Pentax is for all practical purposes invisible here. If Ricoh truly wants to materially increase Imaging revenue they must address the fundamental, structural deficiencies in the US Distribution Division.

[mecrox]

USA remains the largest consumer market on earth, and Pentax is for all practical purposes invisible here. If Ricoh truly wants to materially increase Imaging revenue they must address the fundamental, structural deficiencies in the US Distribution Division.

I agree that it's missing out on a very big chunk of potential revenue, but in 2016 overall industry-wide camera sales to Asia and Europe were greater in each case than sales to North America. In fact, Japan + Asia is more than twice North America. (All from CIPA.) Maybe the balance of priorities is shifting if the view is from Tokyo.

[Mistral75]

USA remains the largest consumer market on earth, and Pentax is for all practical purposes invisible here. If Ricoh truly wants to materially increase Imaging revenue they must address the fundamental, structural deficiencies in the US Distribution Division.

Not exactly for cameras according to CIPA:

- Asia excluding Japan: ¥250 billion
- Europe: ¥185 billion
- Americas: ¥163 billion
- Japan: ¥95 billion
- Other areas: ¥17 billion.

Source: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2016_e.pdf

[monochrome]

You're supporting my point.

[FantasticMrFox]

It's really a question of investment and expected return. The whole camera market is shrinking - Ricoh seems to have found a niche where they are doing relatively well, despite their small market share. Going into North America properly requires a lot of investment to rebuild marketing, communications, service and distribution. In times of dwindling sales, and for a small company/division, maybe that's not the smartest move?

They seem to be very good at playing the waiting game (as they did with the K-1), maybe the time's just not right.

[monochrome]

It's really a question of investment and expected return. The whole camera market is shrinking - Ricoh seems to have found a niche where they are doing relatively well, despite their small market share. Going into North America properly requires a lot of investment to rebuild marketing, communications, service and distribution. In times of dwindling sales, and for a small company/division, maybe that's not the smartest move?

They seem to be very good at playing the waiting game (as they did with the K-1), maybe the time's just not right.

Well, yes, that absolutely true. My comments are meant for observers who insist Pentax must grow to compete. However, there clearly are impediments to growth for the sake of growth, wherein the investment necessary to increase market penetration might result in losses.

The US market is an example, though it remains an opportunity. It appears Ricoh might eventually consider costs here of supporting dealers and distributing outside their own webstore a waste of money.

[mee]

Yes, I would have thought so, Mee.

It's a duopoly, and who wants to write a game for Nintendo when there's the Playstation and Xbox?

If it's any comfort, there's no enthusiasm for Sony, Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic either.

Sigma executives can always say that despite the calls of a vocal minority on this forum, why would Pentaxians buy the 50mm Art when they didn't buy the 35, and why would they fork out for the 50-100 f1.8 when we didn't go for the 18-35?

In a declining market, companies bunker down and become risk averse.

I've sadly concluded the same thought. I wonder what would reinvigorate the market?

In 2010-2014 we had lots of soccer moms and momtogs buying DSLR kits to record their children at events and/or open portrait services....

I think that has gone out of style somewhat and now they more commonly use advanced smartphones.

Those of us who got into photography at that time rode the wave of new products at lowering prices... might have gotten comfortable with an artificial trend.

[Mistral75]

A CIPA report on 2016 figures and 2017 forecasts:

2017 Outlook on Shipment Forecast by Product-Type Concerning Cameras and the Related Goods

CIPA detailed 2016 figures: cameras (graph) lenses (graph)

[RonHendriks1966]

A CIPA report on 2016 figures and 2017 forecasts:

2017 Outlook on Shipment Forecast by Product-Type Concerning Cameras and the Related Goods

CIPA detailed 2016 figures: cameras (graph) lenses (graph)

To me this looks very optimistic as a forecast for 2017. I think they may have to see some further shrinking of the market. Camera's with build in lens, compacts, will have much less sales then they expect. But we wil see one year from now. At Photokina 2014 there was a forecast for the coming periode buzzing that the camera market was tilting ......

With increasing prices for camera's the sales in units will go down in 2017.

[Mistral75]

Comparing the Ricoh figures for the 'Other' segment with the CIPA figures, one obtains the following table:



As indicated before, the Japanese figures include much, much more than Ricoh Imaging (the leasing activities, to begin with) but I would say the EMEA / Americas / Rest of the world ratios should give a pretty accurate measure of Ricoh Imaging's local market share. The American market share is the lowest but isn't that disconnected from the other ones.

[RonHendriks1966]

Comparing the Ricoh figures for the 'Other' segment with the CIPA figures, one obtains the following table:



As indicated before, the Japanese figures include much, much more than Ricoh Imaging (the leasing activities, to begin with) but I would say the EMEA / Americas / Rest of the world ratios should give a pretty accurate measure of Ricoh Imaging's local market share. The American market share is the lowest but isn't that disconnected from the other ones.

All my analysis over the past year where based on the assumption that outside Japan in Other is mostly or only camera. In this categorie Theta, compacts and action camera's are part of it.

But some people see my analysis as hogwash......

[mecrox]

Yes, I would have thought so, Mee.

It's a duopoly, and who wants to write a game for Nintendo when there's the Playstation and Xbox?

If it's any comfort, there's no enthusiasm for Sony, Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic either.

Sigma executives can always say that despite the calls of a vocal minority on this forum, why would Pentaxians buy the 50mm Art when they didn't buy the 35, and why would they fork out for the 50-100 f1.8 when we didn't go for the 18-35?

In a declining market, companies bunker down and become risk averse.

There is little for third parties to pick up from Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic. Fuji is liked by folks precisely because those folks like their lenses. Oly and Panny are too well covered with their own brand items, although Sigma do have three prime lenses in M43 which are cheap as chips - plasticky build but highly regarded for their optical quality, I think Tamron have one or two M43 lenses but I've never heard of anyone buying one. A slight surprise there isn't more action with Sony, but even so that really leaves only Canon and Nikon. A precarious position for Sigma and Tamron. They must be keen to find other ways of surviving. The company which always flies under the radar is Voigtlander. I think they do steady business with almost all the brands, albeit very modestly - but their products are very highly regarded. Being MF, the Voiglander products don't really compete but are complimentary so they are not really treading on any toes when it comes to reverse engineering piracy. I reckon they could keep going for as long as they feel like it.