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02-02-2017, 05:55 PM   #331
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"Having been robust in the first half, sales of cameras were unchanged."
http://www.ricoh.com/IR/data/pre/pdf/h29q3_qa.pdf

02-02-2017, 09:40 PM   #332
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
In elections, a difference of 1% overall make or break it. It doesn't change anything if you have 49% or 51% market share on the opposite. Also a sample that is 50% of the market is far from negligible. This is not terrible, but truely great and likely to be far from bad. Even if there some bias.

And what bias?
That proves, @Nicolas06, that you reacted to the photo without bothering to read the information. You can be forgiven, it's a great picture.

I linked to the Wikipedia article on Selection Bias.

When you sample 50% of electrons, you know everything you need to know because electrons are identical.

That is *not* true of people, that is the point of what is called 'Sampling Bias' in research.

If you have a voluntary self-reporting questionnaire, for example the respondents are never representative of the whole population.

University psychology studies often use undergraduate volunteers. Once again, they and their attitudes are not representative of the rest of the country. They are often wealthier and more liberal.

Last edited by clackers; 02-02-2017 at 09:49 PM.
02-02-2017, 09:45 PM   #333
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
The company which always flies under the radar is Voigtlander. I think they do steady business with almost all the brands, albeit very modestly - but their products are very highly regarded. Being MF, the Voiglander products don't really compete but are complimentary so they are not really treading on any toes when it comes to reverse engineering piracy. I reckon they could keep going for as long as they feel like it.
Well, there's no such company, @Mecrox.

You might mean Cosina, Gary. They do slap the Voigtlander name on several of their own lenses, they own the rights.

I don't think they sell many. (I do have their 20mm f3.5 in K mount, though).

Their real business would be making Zeiss lenses (not many of those are manufactured in Germany anymore) and the Sony ones not made by Tamron.
02-02-2017, 10:04 PM   #334
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
"Having been robust in the first half, sales of cameras were unchanged."
http://www.ricoh.com/IR/data/pre/pdf/h29q3_qa.pdf
And it's no fluke.

Their prediction for the next quarter is that again, the Other division will be the only one to return a profit.

Ricoh has to look to cameras and finance for its good news.

02-02-2017, 11:36 PM   #335
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Those figures just don't agree with all the talk about Pentax success - unless they're tearing it up overseas or the Q-S1 skewed the 2015 numbers.
At least, looks like there is some new promotion going on in the camera shop doing Pentax cameras over here. There are five shelves of about the same size. Last year, two shelves used for Canon gear, one shelf for Fuji, one and a half shelf for Nikon, and half a shelf for Pentax (next to Nikon). This year, Pentax grabbed the half shelf of Nikon. Pentax has now one full shelf (same as Nikon and Fuji). Also, Ricoh seems to have provided the shop with additional sockets and lighting to show the Pentax products, so now, you have the 645Z popping at the front (that the first thing you see), above 645z you have the K1, and on top you have the K3 / KS2, and on the side of Pentax cameras you have all lenses, 645 lenses, K1 lenses , and some of apsc lenses. And one last thing is , at the moment , the shop owner seems happy of the sales he does with the K1.
02-03-2017, 02:46 AM   #336
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
At least, looks like there is some new promotion going on in the camera shop doing Pentax cameras over here. There are five shelves of about the same size. Last year, two shelves used for Canon gear, one shelf for Fuji, one and a half shelf for Nikon, and half a shelf for Pentax (next to Nikon). This year, Pentax grabbed the half shelf of Nikon. Pentax has now one full shelf (same as Nikon and Fuji). Also, Ricoh seems to have provided the shop with additional sockets and lighting to show the Pentax products, so now, you have the 645Z popping at the front (that the first thing you see), above 645z you have the K1, and on top you have the K3 / KS2, and on the side of Pentax cameras you have all lenses, 645 lenses, K1 lenses , and some of apsc lenses. And one last thing is , at the moment , the shop owner seems happy of the sales he does with the K1.
That last part is the most important one. When they can make money, they will talk about Pentax.
02-03-2017, 04:30 AM   #337
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Well, there's no such company, @Mecrox.

You might mean Cosina, Gary. They do slap the Voigtlander name on several of their own lenses, they own the rights.

I don't think they sell many. (I do have their 20mm f3.5 in K mount, though).

Their real business would be making Zeiss lenses (not many of those are manufactured in Germany anymore) and the Sony ones not made by Tamron.
Sorry, should have mentioned that Voigtlander was only a brand. Still, they a good job imho by sticking to their brief and not compromising on quality. People who do own their lenses seem to like them a lot. I don't know much about Cosina. I wonder if it is a hidden success story, doing very well behind the scenes - or maybe not.
02-03-2017, 07:30 AM - 2 Likes   #338
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
I recall a post recently where someone called Ricoh / Pentax a dying brand, or words to that effect... These results would suggest otherwise
I've said this before but, a manager at Wolf Camera in Chattanooga told me that in 1989.

02-04-2017, 04:20 AM   #339
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
That proves, @Nicolas06, that you reacted to the photo without bothering to read the information. You can be forgiven, it's a great picture.
I read the wiki article. In term of actually people voting for each other, there was 5% difference. If only 3% of the voters would have changed their mind, majority of people would have voted for the other candidate. Still this may not mean he would have been electected because of way US elections works. What to be understood there is that US elections are very complex and also that it is a gamer were winner take all.

Camera market for me is not at all in that position. Winner doesn't take all. There isn't states that count more than their buying power for some reason and other strange things.

If we have already number on 50% of the market: 63.3% for Canon, Nikon 31.6% and Pentax 4.8% we know that at the worst of the worst, Canon has 31.6% market share, Nikon 15.8% and Pentax 2.4%. We also know that the max market share each company could pretend to have would be if there were to have 100% of the remaining would be: Canon 81.6%, Nikon 65.8%, Pentax 52.4%...

But that would be assuming that we were extremely unluky with our sample that would be the total opposite of the rest of the population. That could be. Probability would be very low. It seems very unlikely to me for the order: #1Canon, #2 Nikon, #3 Pentax to change. It seems also very unlikely for me for Pentax to change it market share on the rest of the population so much that they would break 10% on the whole Japan market. Comparing to US election that would be the winner not having just about 50% of the population voting for him against 45, but having like 80%. Despite all of the flows in the polls, they were not that way off on raw numbers. This is just that on the opposite to the camera market, the consequences of being first or second by a few percents are enormous per construction while on camera market this is completely irrelevant.

So no, we may not get exact number, we may fail to figure if Pentax made more money or not from theses stats alone, that's for sure. But we know enough to understand that Pentax almost certainly third behind Canon/Nikon and that their market share is very likely bellow 10% as a challenger. Actually we are 100% sure they have at least 2.4%. Hey even if they were to have half on the second part of the market, that at least 3.6% and if they manage to have twice more that's 7.2%... I'd be quite confident of the Pentax market share in japan to be in that 3.6-7.2% range.

Now in the end, who really care?
02-04-2017, 04:43 AM   #340
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
Actually we are 100% sure they have at least 2.4%.
:-) you are sure of nothing. Only Ricoh insiders know their actual figures. Market share is a macro figure, market share is considered as a general metric of competitive strength by management scholars. Exceptions shows that a company with 0% market share can grab the business of another company having 80% market share figure. Take Apple and Nokia. Nokia used to be in the mobile phones business what Canon is in the camera business. Apple wasn't in the mobile phone business and they captured most of it in a few years, while Nokia remained traditional like Canon and you know what Nokia now is.

And for all companies quoted in stock markets, the law enforces that everyone gets the same public information at the same time via press releases. For insiders, trading stocks is not allowed for the period that precedes the announcement in consolidated financial results. Also, if strategic figures and decision would be known by Pentaxians, competitors would also have the same info. All the talk in this thread is essentially entertainment, nothing really serious. But hey that's Ok, as long as people like it.

Ricoh imaging has 100% in the Theta segment. Wow.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 02-04-2017 at 04:51 AM.
02-05-2017, 10:34 AM   #341
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
:-) you are sure of nothing. Only Ricoh insiders know their actual figures. Market share is a macro figure, market share is considered as a general metric of competitive strength by management scholars. Exceptions shows that a company with 0% market share can grab the business of another company having 80% market share figure. Take Apple and Nokia. Nokia used to be in the mobile phones business what Canon is in the camera business. Apple wasn't in the mobile phone business and they captured most of it in a few years, while Nokia remained traditional like Canon and you know what Nokia now is.

And for all companies quoted in stock markets, the law enforces that everyone gets the same public information at the same time via press releases. For insiders, trading stocks is not allowed for the period that precedes the announcement in consolidated financial results. Also, if strategic figures and decision would be known by Pentaxians, competitors would also have the same info. All the talk in this thread is essentially entertainment, nothing really serious. But hey that's Ok, as long as people like it.

Ricoh imaging has 100% in the Theta segment. Wow.
If on 50% of the market you have 4.8%, then on 100% of the market you have at least 2.4%. I don't know why that's an issue for you? That's math. Maybe they have more than 2.4% and very likely, but they can't have less than 2.4%. No link with apple and Nokia and by the way today Nokia doesn't have 80% market share theses day there are down to less than 5%. Also apple doesn't have most of the cellphone market neither.
02-05-2017, 11:03 AM   #342
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
If on 50% of the market you have 4.8%, then on 100% of the market you have at least 2.4%. I don't know why that's an issue for you? That's math.
You know how to divide 4.8% by 2, and you find 2.4% , congratulations. We don't run a business from past figures. We run a business with strategy. Strategy is what we are going to do in the future, completely confidential.
My question to everyone in this thread: Where you able to know that Ricoh imaging would release the Pentax KP in February 2017 by reading the 2 years old estimated market share figures of Pentax ?
02-05-2017, 11:21 AM   #343
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
My question to everyone in this thread: Where you able to know that Ricoh imaging would release the Pentax KP in February 2017 by reading the 2 years old estimated market share figures of Pentax ?
Not me. But I do read in the last presented financial report that they don't expect to sell a whole lot of them in this running quarter.
02-05-2017, 11:24 AM - 1 Like   #344
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IMO, from RICOH'S history of releases (those cameras 100% designed by the combined Ricoh and Pentax engineer teams) it appears from the outside their strategy is:

1. Use major house-designed components over a wide variety of bodies and platforms to lower unit development costs
2. Incrementally update and improve software and Firmware to increase component functionality
3. Use proven, volume-production sensors and processors while improving where possible output
4. Regularly refresh the APSc body line with interesting designs to stimulate throughput and to remain profitable at price points by combining current and previous generation components and software. Test new technology in targeted-production bodies
5. Make major technology advances In Flagship releases intended for longer production runs and FW updates

Actual implementation is malleable as directed by market trends and conditions over time.
02-05-2017, 11:43 AM   #345
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
You know how to divide 4.8% by 2, and you find 2.4% , congratulations. We don't run a business from past figures. We run a business with strategy. Strategy is what we are going to do in the future, completely confidential.
My question to everyone in this thread: Where you able to know that Ricoh imaging would release the Pentax KP in February 2017 by reading the 2 years old estimated market share figures of Pentax ?
That they were going to release more APSC bodies ? Sure. I would have expected october/november delivered to shops, as tactically this would have been much better. Camera don't sell well in winter but extremely well for Christmas. But I think the earthquake had its saying. But the long term plan has to cope with reality.

Anyway, in theory, anybody and their mother could have an hidden strategy to completely revolution the camera market with they innovative product and nobody knows about it. They could make Pentax, Canon, Nikon completely irrelevant. I would go further an say all camera manufacturers have plan to outsmart the others. But most of the time, they negate each other.
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