[Rondec]

The market is definitely pretty mature. That said,. people are always looking for better image quality and a camera like the K-1 offers a couple of features (pixel-shift and astro tracer) that aren't available elsewhere in the market. The big thing at this point is to differentiate yourself and at the same time not to price your products out of folks budget range.

I still am not sure if the future is mirrorless and if so how soon that will happen. I have heard about the demise of SLRs for a long time, but it hasn't quite happened yet. Particularly for folks who have a pretty full stable of SLR mount lenses, it seems as though that shift is something that they aren't particularly interested in. Yes, you can continue to use your lenses on a new camera with an adapter, but it isn't the seamless function you get when you pop your lens on the mount it is designed for.

[RobA_Oz]

I know these are the complaints at review sites. I really think that having an incomplete sales channel is a bigger problem in the end.

We are fairly fortunate, here in Australia, that we have a long-established national distributor, who has done some good work in supplying bodies and lenses, especially in recent years.

Having said that, the pricing disparity between here and the US, based on exchange rates that haven't moved much since the introduction of the K-1, suggests to me that some cost needs to be removed from the value chain. I imagine that the Europeans feel likewise.

[totsmuyco]

We are fairly fortunate, here in Australia, that we have a long-established national distributor, who has done some good work in supplying bodies and lenses, especially in recent years.

Having said that, the pricing disparity between here and the US, based on exchange rates that haven't moved much since the introduction of the K-1, suggests to me that some cost needs to be removed from the value chain. I imagine that the Europeans feel likewise.

You guys are lucky. Here, Pentax cameras are sold at higher prices than Nikon. Plus you have to quarrel for services and I'm hoping for a huge improvement regarding service and marketing efforts. I can still see the same ks2 and k-3 on their shelf. I don't think they can sell 1 Pentax camera a month.

[beholder3]

I still am not sure if the future is mirrorless and if so how soon that will happen

It is not. While mirrorless slow as a snail grabs some small market share, their own market is collapsing together with the DSLRs.

Drop of mirrorless production Jan-Aug 2016 is -18% compared to 2015, where DSLR procution is -23%. That is pretty much the same and they still only cover 1/3 of DSLR volume.

Then we also need to look at the regional differences. Once you realize that the mirroless market for Sony, Olympus, Panasonic in Japan is just imploding ("collaps" is to weak) with -38% in a single year, you understand why the Japan centric Pentax was very wise not to invest into a new mirrorless mount. That is actually 200% of the shrinking rate of DSLRs there.

Go discuss with your employer of choice what he would think of unit sales dropping by -38% in one year. Calling it a disaster probably would be mild.

[Rondec]

It is not. While mirrorless slow as a snail grabs some small market share, their own market is collapsing together with the DSLRs.

Drop of mirrorless production Jan-Aug 2016 is -18% compared to 2015, where DSLR procution is -23%. That is pretty much the same and they still only cover 1/3 of DSLR volume.

Then we also need to look at the regional differences. Once you realize that the mirroless market for Sony, Olympus, Panasonic in Japan is just imploding ("collaps" is to weak) with -38% in a single year, you understand why the Japan centric Pentax was very wise not to invest into a new mirrorless mount. That is actually 200% of the shrinking rate of DSLRs there.

Go discuss with your employer of choice what he would think of unit sales dropping by -38% in one year. Calling it a disaster probably would be mild.

I feel like the mirrorless was "the thing" for awhile, but most of the people really interested in it have gotten one. The problem for mirrorless makers is that the market has matured a lot faster than the SLR market. People who own an A7r II are unlikely to upgrade it any time soon and so unless they drop it in the ocean or knock over their tripod with it on it, they will be shooting with it for the next three or four years.

[Zygonyx]

Hummm..... what difference would you actually see btw mirrorless and slr in terms of product use longevity ?

Imho, despite heavier mecanical stuff in a slr, the double screen issue in ml (OVF and/or rear screen necessary for shooting) makes their lives shorter... because of electronic heating / failure.

[biz-engineer]

And as soon as FF MILC is released by the big two people go back. Very simple.

People don't switch so easily because of the cost of switching when invested in a mount.

---------- Post added 31-10-16 at 15:58 ----------

I really think that having an incomplete sales channel is a bigger problem in the end.

That's the number one bottleneck for Pentax, whatever they design new, the sales pipe is so narrow that they never get any big leverage on a successfully differentiated camera design. It worse that channel presence, there is nearly no education about the products. Overhere, I can't ask anything about Pentax products, the sales persons know less than me the lens portfolio of Pentax. For example, I asked them if Pentax has any lens longer then 450mm of the DFA150450, and the sales guy said "no there is nothing available in Pentax mount" which is not true (he could have said": yes there is a DA560 f5.6). However, if I asked about Sigma he said "Oh yes, there is". Pentax education is so dismal, any other brand can compete without much commercial effort, and Fuji does it easily.

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Last edited by biz-engineer; 10-31-2016 at 08:04 AM.

[MJKoski]

Most Sony jumpers try to hold on to their DSLR lenses by using adapters. Some manage, some do not. Those who manage will look at brand's own MILC should it happen. No one cannot force them to switch again but a collection of lenses is an enabler for that. Sony's own MILC production was halted earlier this year due to earthquake damage to sensor plants. It has slowly caught up to demand and products have appeared in shops again here recently.

[Kunzite]

Those "most Sony jumpers" are irrelevant, as they already jumped ship. To an inadequate system, I might add, as they clearly don't have the needed lenses (thus, the need to adapt DSLR lenses on their new shiny toys)

The entire "MILC will take over the world" talk is irrelevant. Wait to see what the market decide...

[MJKoski]

It already took over the world. Cellphones basicly.

[Kunzite]

That's an excuse MILC fans are now using, to deny the reality of their own predictions not happening. Good luck with your Interchangeable Lens smartphone, anyway...

[beholder3]

We will see how Sony fares this quarter soon enough.

Their last numbers (June 2016) showed even their sensor business is bleeding 25 cents loss for each $1 of sales and while shrinking at -23%.

Sony MILC and other camera business even shrank -26%.

They did use the excuse of the earthquakes that last time, so 3 months later it will be interesting to see.

The last numbers did not in any way express "success".

[Rondec]

Hummm..... what difference would you actually see btw mirrorless and slr in terms of product use longevity ?

Imho, despite heavier mecanical stuff in a slr, the double screen issue in ml (OVF and/or rear screen necessary for shooting) makes their lives shorter... because of electronic heating / failure.

The point isn't that mirrorless are more prone to fail, I just think people aren't replacing either their SLRs or mirrorless cameras as often now as they used to. A generation or two ago, people were replacing mirrorless cameras every generation because auto focus really was poor on initial models, but now people are not replacing them as often and so the sales rates have dropped.

SLRs went through this already.

[MJKoski]

Zeiss has reported clear rise in demand of Batis and Loxia lenses while DSLR lenses show drop.

[Zygonyx]

OK with this Rondec
Plus prices are becomming irrelevant and inaccessible : the new Olympus EM 1 mkII flagship has been announced at around 2200 USD !