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11-01-2016, 02:12 AM - 3 Likes   #121
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
Smartphones are already better for consumers than film 24x36. More accurately in focus. More details than the typical scan and all. As for what will work or not, honestly that's hard to say. There new sensor technology that improve continuously. There improved algorithms that again improve the results continuously. The investment to get nice bundled camera in phones is maybe 10 time more than what the whole market is investing on DSLR/mirrorless. The market size is more than a hundred time bigger. Between a 1/2.5 sensor and APSC sensor, there 4 stops. between f/3.5 and f/1.7, there 2 stops. meaning already there only 2 stops... That's not that much. The smartphone sensor are BSI, K30 isn't. that another 0.3 stop. The jpeg engine is a bit old 0.5 stop again... There only 1.2-1.3 stop remaining. Really not that much. put 2 sensors and lenses on the phone same focal lens, 2 other at another focal length for zooming, improve a bit more the algorithms and you close the gap. The paralax allow you to compute a deph map and to reconstruct dof/subject isolation. Prototypes doing that already exist. You don't get same perf as an f/1.8 on APSC or FF, but you start to get the performance of the typical DSLR most of the population brought with the kit lens. The 50%+ of the market that never go past the kit lens. And this one fit in the pocket, it is always with you... Sure this isn't perfect, but it will be good enough.
That's worse, people used to get married for life and now the average life time of a marriage is 3 years and even less with the folks below 30 of age. For teenagers, a long term relationship lasts 2 weeks. In 50 years from now, according to crystal ball, all Japanese will have disappeared because they aren't making enough babies, and there will be not camera and lens designers in Japan. Only France , USA, China and African countries will still have enough people in 2066. French cuisine will have disappeared because of the recipes taking too much time to cook, not competitive with smarthone pill feeding mode, and red wine will be sold as powder you mix with water (it will taste awful but for the young people who have not know real red wine, it will be good). In 2066, only Samyang will still be marking lenses because they still have designers in house and the last of the old Germans (not making enough babies I'm sorry) will be forced to buy Samyang lenses that aren't as sharp as Zeiss (oh my god!). In order to know what was a lens design from 2016, you'll have to pull out the old druid from his cave (to know the magic potion from Asterix and Obelix). SmartPhones will be equipped with laser blades shaver (you'll be shaved while on a call) and coffee making capability with micro-capsules!!! . The human finger tits will have started to shrink in size to adapt to Apple superretian displays but unfortunately, smartphone tech will have evolved faster than human fingers and Smartphones won't be any display because they'll read your mind directly via a wireless connection into your brain. Privacy won't matter because google would already have stolen all of your thinking in their brain sucking databases. As far as I'm concerned I will not care because I'll probably be dead by then. Smart phones will feature 400 FPS basically UUUHD video with an AF system per pixel with ISO 10 trillons noise free thanks to the injection of cold electrons that cool down the bottom of the well locally to 0 Kelvin!! wow. But despite all those improvement, people will not be interested because they'll be having surgeries to have the stereoscopic camera in their eyes. Paper printers will have disappeared and replaced by cosmic displays!


Last edited by biz-engineer; 11-01-2016 at 02:50 AM.
11-01-2016, 02:14 AM   #122
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Production seems to be fine now; we'll probably see a mild spike in sales (due to products becoming available) so the companies should recover part of their losses due to the earthquakes.
Mirrorless market saturation in Japan?
If they have a good quarter running from october to december then they could go a little better. Still ending up with at least between 20 to 25 % lost in sales over last year. The good news for 2017 is that the market for point and shoot shrinked so much that it doesn't hurt as much next year. Still 2017 could be 10 % lower then 2016, so that is far from good.
11-01-2016, 07:36 AM - 1 Like   #123
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
If they have a good quarter running from october to december then they could go a little better. Still ending up with at least between 20 to 25 % lost in sales over last year. The good news for 2017 is that the market for point and shoot shrinked so much that it doesn't hurt as much next year. Still 2017 could be 10 % lower then 2016, so that is far from good.
These are businesses and they are all answerable not to us, the customers, but to their shareholders. It would be interesting to know what some of the larger shareholders actually think about all this relentless decline and red ink. Some must be saying "Get out now and invest in something with a future!" but who knows. ! don't think this particularly applies to Ricoh which has a canny spread of products across all segments and smart management which is limiting their exposure to the photography market, but there are certainly some one can think of. At the moment the winners look to be Sony (sensors), Apple (software + phones), Samsung (flash memory + phones), Google (software + increasingly hardware) and Canon (brand image which, it seems, no one can get close to). Everyone else must jump every time they see a tape measure, wondering if there is an undertaker at the other the end of it.

Last edited by mecrox; 11-01-2016 at 07:42 AM.
11-01-2016, 07:44 AM   #124
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Ricoh could do the smart thing and join E-mount gang. Current Pentax glass works fine with well-made adapter. It would pull customers to Pentax from Sony camp due to vastly better ergonomics and battery life right now provided that K-1 bodyform is kept for grip and size. But should Sony interfere with A9, with right price of course, things could get ugly.

11-01-2016, 08:08 AM - 2 Likes   #125
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There is no "E-mount gang"; there's only one lord of the E-mount and he does not share power.
And there's nothing smart about it anyway.

QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
These are businesses and they are all answerable not to us, the customers, but to their shareholders. It would be interesting to know what some of the larger shareholders actually think about all this relentless decline and red ink. Some must be saying "Get out now and invest in something with a future!" but who knows. ! don't think this particularly applies to Ricoh which has a canny spread of products across all segments and smart management which is limiting their exposure to the photography market, but there are certainly some one can think of. At the moment the winners look to be Sony (sensors), Apple (software + phones), Samsung (flash memory + phones), Google (software + increasingly hardware) and Canon (brand image which, it seems, no one can get close to). Everyone else must jump every time they see a tape measure, wondering if there is an undertaker at the other the end of it.
Consumer cameras are one of the growing areas at Ricoh, I'm not concerned with the shareholders protesting against that
11-01-2016, 08:18 AM - 1 Like   #126
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Sony (sensors), Apple (software + phones), Samsung (flash memory + phones), Google (software + increasingly hardware) and Canon (brand image which, it seems, no one can get close to).
Sony sensor business is badly bleeding money, not even failing Nikon is doing that right now yet. If Sony is smart they will sell it off sooner rather than later.

Smartphones are booming only in the likes of HTC, Huawei and others, not the yesterday Samsungs or Apples.
Lets not forget that the smartphones as such also are a saturated market where price is increasingly the area of differentiation.

And then there are the Fuji Instaxes and the Ricoh Thetas, which do boom.
11-01-2016, 08:20 AM   #127
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
These are businesses and they are all answerable not to us, the customers, but to their shareholders. It would be interesting to know what some of the larger shareholders actually think about all this relentless decline and red ink. Some must be saying "Get out now and invest in something with a future!" but who knows. ! don't think this particularly applies to Ricoh which has a canny spread of products across all segments and smart management which is limiting their exposure to the photography market, but there are certainly some one can think of. At the moment the winners look to be Sony (sensors), Apple (software + phones), Samsung (flash memory + phones), Google (software + increasingly hardware) and Canon (brand image which, it seems, no one can get close to). Everyone else must jump every time they see a tape measure, wondering if there is an undertaker at the other the end of it.
Well who knows what Ricoh may do in the near future. They have some trouble with keeping income and profit at high level for the total company. The camera business is very variant from quarter to quarter and not all of them give profit. The key question is Wheater they see the camera business as one of their core businesses.

QuoteQuote:
Divesting or withdrawing from noncore businesses
One good thing for keeping the camera business is that you don't have to write-off the investment made.
11-01-2016, 09:08 AM - 1 Like   #128
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Sony sensor business is badly bleeding money, not even failing Nikon is doing that right now yet. If Sony is smart they will sell it off sooner rather than later.

Smartphones are booming only in the likes of HTC, Huawei and others, not the yesterday Samsungs or Apples.
Lets not forget that the smartphones as such also are a saturated market where price is increasingly the area of differentiation.

And then there are the Fuji Instaxes and the Ricoh Thetas, which do boom.
Boom is a relative word when one compares the size of the smartphone market and the sensor + electronics market to the market for cameras of the kind we use. I'm sure the smartphone market will settle and mature but it will still be 100 times larger than dedicated cameras which means it probably won't be any camera company which influences the future of imaging and photography

11-01-2016, 09:53 AM   #129
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Boom is a relative word when one compares the size of the smartphone market and the sensor + electronics market to the market for cameras of the kind we use. I'm sure the smartphone market will settle and mature but it will still be 100 times larger than dedicated cameras which means it probably won't be any camera company which influences the future of imaging and photography
I agree that the total size is different. But for a business the relative changes are much more important. Small companies can survive even though they are small and grow only 1% per year. Large companies who shrink are actually in danger even if after shrinking they still can be considered large. Shareholders don't like shrinking while they can live with "small".
11-01-2016, 10:36 AM   #130
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
...but people won't mind paying always more for their smartphones, will they ?
Same as for IQ, there will be a limit here also.

Smartphonemania and it's misleading marketing - to which some great labels like Leica, Zeiss, ... scandalously participate - makes you believe everything is possible, pushing more and more gimmicks whilst forgetting basics of physical limits, like sensor or optics sizes...

It's somehow like television's awkward "reality shows" concept, massively injecting in people's brain there's no difference btw x-files and politics....

"Open your eyes, if you don't wanna freeze your mind".
Yep not all is pink for smartphones neither... Honestly there no that much reason anymore to buy a 500$+ phone. The one in the 200-300$ do just well. And I understand that even the one in the 100-200$ range are fine. Well except they are not so good to take photos.

I guess in 10 year if there no real innovation, we will all have very effective smartphone for 100$ and get a new one after 5 year when it doesn't work anymore, we lost it or destroyed it... But that may still mean 10-20 time bigger market...

The key difference in the end is without smartphone you lost your address book, your capacity to phone/text most people, to deal with daily administrative tasks (calling the insurance, the bank, the delivery man or plumber ...), your PDA to organise meetings with friends, your todo list, the quick camera snapshot to capture what you just discussed and drawed on the board with colleagues, your music player, your game console when waiting at the doctor or in urban transportation, a quick way to check your bank account etc... It is kind of essential.

And then like if you are out for a new DSLR you can be easily seduced by the new K70 or K1, then it is easy to sell you the latest fancy smartphone... But you still need to be in a mood to buy something to begin with.
11-01-2016, 12:38 PM - 1 Like   #131
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
That's worse, people used to get married for life and now the average life time of a marriage is 3 years and even less with the folks below 30 of age. For teenagers, a long term relationship lasts 2 weeks. In 50 years from now, according to crystal ball, all Japanese will have disappeared because they aren't making enough babies, and there will be not camera and lens designers in Japan. Only France , USA, China and African countries will still have enough people in 2066. French cuisine will have disappeared because of the recipes taking too much time to cook, not competitive with smarthone pill feeding mode, and red wine will be sold as powder you mix with water (it will taste awful but for the young people who have not know real red wine, it will be good). In 2066, only Samyang will still be marking lenses because they still have designers in house and the last of the old Germans (not making enough babies I'm sorry) will be forced to buy Samyang lenses that aren't as sharp as Zeiss (oh my god!). In order to know what was a lens design from 2016, you'll have to pull out the old druid from his cave (to know the magic potion from Asterix and Obelix). SmartPhones will be equipped with laser blades shaver (you'll be shaved while on a call) and coffee making capability with micro-capsules!!! . The human finger tits will have started to shrink in size to adapt to Apple superretian displays but unfortunately, smartphone tech will have evolved faster than human fingers and Smartphones won't be any display because they'll read your mind directly via a wireless connection into your brain. Privacy won't matter because google would already have stolen all of your thinking in their brain sucking databases. As far as I'm concerned I will not care because I'll probably be dead by then. Smart phones will feature 400 FPS basically UUUHD video with an AF system per pixel with ISO 10 trillons noise free thanks to the injection of cold electrons that cool down the bottom of the well locally to 0 Kelvin!! wow. But despite all those improvement, people will not be interested because they'll be having surgeries to have the stereoscopic camera in their eyes. Paper printers will have disappeared and replaced by cosmic displays!
Quite comic, and possible, at least for part of our world !

Let's don't forget about the "shooting pleasure", that is also very different depending on persons and tools... and definitely inexistent with smartphones (for me at least).
And let's do not think "instant result" is, or will be, the norm.
The traditionnal japanese "art de vivre", is for example some kind of cultural inheritage that will imho survive the current digital revolution.
Because you simply cannot "revolve" culture.
11-01-2016, 03:25 PM   #132
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
...answerable not to us, the customers, but to their shareholders.
"but to their shareholders" ...which is us after all.
11-01-2016, 03:30 PM   #133
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
Quite comic, and possible, at least for part of our world !
Quite so. HG Wells would have been pleased with that little outburst. Perhaps the lens designers of the future will live underground, like the Morlocks.

QuoteOriginally posted by Zygonyx Quote
Let's don't forget about the "shooting pleasure", that is also very different depending on persons and tools... and definitely inexistent with smartphones (for me at least).
And let's do not think "instant result" is, or will be, the norm.
The traditionnal japanese "art de vivre", is for example some kind of cultural inheritage that will imho survive the current digital revolution.
Because you simply cannot "revolve" culture.
The current obsession with thinness is the limitation on developing the smartphone camera system further, barring things like add-on lenses (that few would bother carrying around, and most would lose somewhere in their drawers or handbags, very quickly) to make the shooting experience more satisfying. A less-slender body would allow the inclusion of better optics, including zooms, and less-minuscule side-mounted controls, but the screens would also have to get a lot better in bright sunlight to use them in a horizontal configuration. I imagine a right-angle prism or mirror at entry would allow the current shooting style to remain, but I can't see buyers giving up fashionable thinness for a better camera. Form follows fashion, in these anti-Bauhaus days.
11-01-2016, 03:35 PM   #134
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
If they have a good quarter running from october to december then they could go a little better. Still ending up with at least between 20 to 25 % lost in sales over last year. The good news for 2017 is that the market for point and shoot shrinked so much that it doesn't hurt as much next year. Still 2017 could be 10 % lower then 2016, so that is far from good.
Are you referring to the CIPA figures for monthly production and shipment or something else?

I notice that Mirrorless Rumors website has an article today that talks about camera sales recovering, but links straight to the production and shipment figures. Can't they read? Shipment and sales are two completely different things, because it is perfectly possible to sell a camera that was shipped to retail in a previous month. I think the camera companies had lots of old stock to sell, even if certain types of customer will be holding out for something new.

The latest upturn in September is more likely due to the fact that manufacturers are finally getting more sensors from Sony, rather than sales increasing. At the same time, the low figures from previous months are probably more due to supply constraints.

I also think it is wrong to draw the conclusion from the shipment figures that mirrorless cameras are doing worse than DSLRs. It so happened that a number of DSLRs were launched in the early part of the year, and probably produced before the sensor supply dried up. A number of mirrorless cameras seem to have been delayed during summer and Photokina time, so I think they are just victim to unfortunate timing. In addition, Canon was mostly unaffected and they sell far more DSLRs than mirrorless.

Anyway, all I'm saying is you have to be careful interpreting those figures.

Last edited by JPT; 11-01-2016 at 03:46 PM.
11-01-2016, 03:49 PM   #135
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
Are you referring to the CIPA figures for monthly production and shipment or something else?

I notice that Mirrorless Rumors website has an article today that talks about camera sales recovering, but links straight to the production and shipment figures. Can't they read? Shipment and sales are two completely different things, because it is perfectly possible to sell a camera that was shipped to retail in a previous month. I think the camera companies had lots old stock to sell, even if certain types of customer will holding out for something new.

The latest upturn in September is more likely due to the fact that manufacturers are finally getting more sensors from Sony, rather than sales increasing. At the same time, the low figures from previous months are probably more due to supply constraints.

I also think it is wrong to draw the conclusion from the shipment figures that mirrorless cameras are doing worse than DSLRs. It so happened that a number of DSLRs were launched in the early part of the year, and probably produced before the sensor supply dried up. A number of mirrorless cameras seem to have been delayed during summer and Photokina time, so I think they are just victim to unfortunate timing. In addition, Canon was mostly unaffected and they sell far more DSLRs than mirrorless.

Anyway, all I'm saying is you have to be careful interpreting those figures.
I was looking at the sales in yen of shipped units. Camera's in stock of shops are still sold by the camera manufacturer. I also think that Nikon finally got done with some older models they where still selling. That is the bright side from such a production interference. With cipa now presenting 9 months of sales, it does reveal the downhill run of camera sales.
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