[BigMackCam]

The point isn't that mirrorless are more prone to fail, I just think people aren't replacing either their SLRs or mirrorless cameras as often now as they used to.

I suspect you're right. DSLR *and* mirrorless cameras of 2 - 3 years ago are so good that many people are less likely to upgrade to the latest models, however good they are. There comes a point when what you have is enough, and another $1,000 - $2,000 (or more) upgrade becomes very difficult to justify unless you simply want the latest gadgets to play with...

[Rondec]

I suspect you're right. DSLR *and* mirrorless cameras of 2 - 3 years ago are so good that many people are less likely to upgrade to the latest models, however good they are. There comes a point when what you have is enough, and another $1,000 - $2,000 (or more) upgrade becomes very difficult to justify unless you simply want the latest gadgets to play with...

Exactly.

I bought a K100, a K10, a K20, a K7, a K5, a K5 II, a K3, and a K-1. Eventually I will probably replace my current K3 with another K-1, but if Pentax releases a K-1 MK II tomorrow, I can't think of what they would stick in it to make me want to upgrade. Better AF? Better Video? And other brands have come a lot farther in those areas than Pentax has.

[photoptimist]

This isn't about Canon/Nikon not providing what the market want. This isn't about having more AF points, providing a bit better high iso, a bigger sensor or a new lens. This is about that mostly if you brought a camera, regardless of the brand in the last 5 years, there no real reason to upgrade. The old one is good enough. People are satisfied with their current gear.

There no killer feature that make one want to buy the new one, so one doesn't do it... And the market become a saturated market where people update when the old one is really old or isn't working anymore.

It's much worse than that. There's a large segment of those circa 2000s DSLR buyers who will never upgrade no matter what Canikon, Sony, Pentax, etc. do because DSLRs were just a fad for them. They bought DSLRs because their neighbors, coworkers, friend, or family bought DSLRs. People in that segment have stopped using DSLRs or any kind of "big camera" altogether. The percentage of people carrying dedicated cameras has plummeted.

That's not to say DSLRs are dying -- there's still the segment of professional photographers and dedicated amateur photographers but they are a much smaller market.

[Qwntm]

This isn't about Canon/Nikon not providing what the market want. This isn't about having more AF points, providing a bit better high iso, a bigger sensor or a new lens. This is about that mostly if you brought a camera, regardless of the brand in the last 5 years, there no real reason to upgrade. The old one is good enough. People are satisfied with their current gear.

There's no killer feature that make one want to buy the new one, so one doesn't do it... And the market become a saturated market where people update when the old one is really old or isn't working anymore.

What you say is true, but that's why making the "package" (camera) with the perfect balance of features/performance/price is absolutely critical right now. You can't sell people something they don't need unless you give them a reason to do so. The only professional, 36mp FF sensor for under $2000 USD is a good reason, for example. Pentax can't make enough of them.


The contrast to that has got to be the 5D4 at $3500. Who really needs it, and who cares? It will sell, but they will easily be able to outpace demand with production...

---------- Post added 10-31-16 at 01:07 PM ----------

Exactly.

I bought a K100, a K10, a K20, a K7, a K5, a K5 II, a K3, and a K-1. Eventually I will probably replace my current K3 with another K-1, but if Pentax releases a K-1 MK II tomorrow, I can't think of what they would stick in it to make me want to upgrade. Better AF? Better Video? And other brands have come a lot farther in those areas than Pentax has.

And how motivated would you be if the K1 Mark II price went up to $3000?


You could/can buy a new 5D3 for $2500, and the 5D4 is $3500. That's got to hurt sales. There is nothing Pentax could add to K1-M2 that would make me even consider paying $3000 for one when I can buy a K1 for $2000.

[biz-engineer]

Zeiss has reported clear rise in demand of Batis and Loxia lenses while DSLR lenses show drop.

That's normal, Zeiss stopped the K mount, they can't expect to have Zeiss lenses for DSLR rise with the K1.

[MJKoski]

Uhm? What does CaNikon Zeiss lens demand drop have to do with K-1?

[Nicolas06]

Once you realize that the mirroless market for Sony, Olympus, Panasonic in Japan is just imploding ("collaps" is to weak) with -38% in a single year, you understand why the Japan centric Pentax was very wise not to invest into a new mirrorless mount. That is actually 200% of the shrinking rate of DSLRs there.

-47% for the whole market... June to June. And I think the hearthquake made the results worse.

Go discuss with your employer of choice what he would think of unit sales dropping by -38% in one year. Calling it a disaster probably would be mild.

Nikon if affected, but not much bellow than what they did in 2007. Pentax grow now because they lost they clients before. Other manufacturers have a small camera division in a much bigger company and so overall the issue is not that bad.

Many industries faced things worse than that with the crisis. people lost their job etc. Some companies do not exist anymore.

[Nicolas06]

What you say is true, but that's why making the "package" (camera) with the perfect balance of features/performance/price is absolutely critical right now. You can't sell people something they don't need unless you give them a reason to do so. The only professional, 36mp FF sensor for under $2000 USD is a good reason, for example. Pentax can't make enough of them.

K1 was available for 5 year in Nikon closing and this isn't like you can really notice the difference between 24 or 36MP. People don't have bionic eyes. They eyes can't see more than 8MP. A used 5D is less than 500€ and I can get an A7 or D610 for something around 1000€ new.

Yes the K1 has a great price, but this matter only if the feature make a difference for you. The MP/AF etc race look to be as exciting as what hapen in washing machine market.

Pentax sell it well because whatever FF for K-mount with the amount of unsatisfied demand would have sold well. The great specs and price, seal the deal for many that would have hesitated. But is there an exodus from Canikon of people ugrading earling to buy a K1? I honestly don't think so. People in general are not interrested.

Nobody care of what the new washing machine can do really. Who care if it can wash at 120° but only for white linen or if it take 2 minutes less to complete a cycle? That's completely irrelevant. Even if you can make the best consumer oriented washing machine ever for $1000 instead of $2000 who care?

People look when they are out to replace the old and that about it.

The camera market is actually in a far worse situation: more and more people don't ever buy again, they just use their smartphone that get better with each new generation. Now the latest one can zoom and isolate subject from background. It just works. How many year until a smartphone can match a K30 + a 18-55 in practical terms? 5 years for high end, 10 year for the cheap 100€ version?

[Zygonyx]

No, that won't work.
And no need to have bionic eyes to check...

[Nicolas06]

No, that won't work.
And no need to have bionic eyes to check...

Smartphones are already better for consumers than film 24x36. More accurately in focus. More details than the typical scan and all.

As for what will work or not, honestly that's hard to say. There new sensor technology that improve continuously. There improved algorithms that again improve the results continuously. The investment to get nice bundled camera in phones is maybe 10 time more than what the whole market is investing on DSLR/mirrorless. The market size is more than a hundred time bigger.

Between a 1/2.5 sensor and APSC sensor, there 4 stops. between f/3.5 and f/1.7, there 2 stops. meaning already there only 2 stops... That's not that much. The smartphone sensor are BSI, K30 isn't. that another 0.3 stop. The jpeg engine is a bit old 0.5 stop again... There only 1.2-1.3 stop remaining. Really not that much.

put 2 sensors and lenses on the phone same focal lens, 2 other at another focal length for zooming, improve a bit more the algorithms and you close the gap. The paralax allow you to compute a deph map and to reconstruct dof/subject isolation. Prototypes doing that already exist. You don't get same perf as an f/1.8 on APSC or FF, but you start to get the performance of the typical DSLR most of the population brought with the kit lens. The 50%+ of the market that never go past the kit lens. And this one fit in the pocket, it is always with you...

Sure this isn't perfect, but it will be good enough.

[MJKoski]

That, Sir, was nicely written. Round of applause

[totsmuyco]

If they can address the issue of overheating and the faster battery consumption then maybe MILC is the future. As far as I know the higher the resolution of the LCD the battery consumption is also much higher. Plus, more electronic parts means more heat. But, I think one of the reasons for the decline in sales is the maturity of the market and of course smart phones and tablets. Most people don't want to have a lot to bring along. Shots from smart phones and tablet can easily be posted on the web.

[Zygonyx]

...but people won't mind paying always more for their smartphones, will they ?
Same as for IQ, there will be a limit here also.

Smartphonemania and it's misleading marketing - to which some great labels like Leica, Zeiss, ... scandalously participate - makes you believe everything is possible, pushing more and more gimmicks whilst forgetting basics of physical limits, like sensor or optics sizes...

It's somehow like television's awkward "reality shows" concept, massively injecting in people's brain there's no difference btw x-files and politics....

"Open your eyes, if you don't wanna freeze your mind".

[RonHendriks1966]

September was a little better then last summer, but overal this is not a good year. The Amarica's are really holding off to buying new camera's, more then other regio's.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201609_e.pdf

[Kunzite]

Production seems to be fine now; we'll probably see a mild spike in sales (due to products becoming available) so the companies should recover part of their losses due to the earthquakes.
Mirrorless market saturation in Japan?