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09-13-2016, 10:33 AM - 7 Likes   #1
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Consolidated digest of Pentax diviner's visions

Most people come to this section of the forum in search of rumors. They do not care for the haters, whiners and personal x-mas wishlists and self important explanations what "somebody else has to do" which pollute so many threads.

So here I consolidate the bits and pieces our most honorable fortune tellers here have actually provided. If you have any nice sources provide them and I can update this starter post.
One stop shopping without the pain of all the nonsense.

I think if you read all this you get a pretty good idea what is going to happen and what not - regardless of sheep jumping of cliffs and ships.

Here we go:

added 27.01.17:

QuoteQuote:
  1. Flagship APSc is next body, between June and October
    (...)
Are you 100% sure?

(forget my remark if you meant to write "K-mount body")
(hinting at non K-Mount body summer 2017.)

QuoteQuote:
Just with a quick Google Translate of the page (Google Translate), it seems there are three events over the week which include the phrase 'new K-Mount lens', so hopefully we shall receive 3 new K-mount lenses!
QuoteQuote:
Only a small comment between the speculation,this is NOT the K-3 ll replacement.
Maybe more next days,but the upper class model in the line of 3 is coming up later.

added 17.12.16:

QuoteQuote:
February a new fullframe mirrorless?
Nothing as fact,but something as speculation.
But still only a fistful of speculations.
QuoteQuote:
In the next 6 month we get 3 till 5 new primes,next *Zoom is possible to be a medium telezoom 4.0 .
Also a wide 4.0 is possible in the next 12 month.
Both made and patented by Pentax Ricoh.
I also asked an oem for next converter,fullframe in this case,but I got no concrete answer.
The APS-C converter was produced in 400 pieces at first production run and was sold out in a couple of hours.
It was Pentax patented.
QuoteQuote:
My last question about a new fullframe converter was answered with a smile...
Means 50/50

added 11.10.16:

QuoteQuote:
This is till today the current Pentax situation.
The complete production is going directly to the shops,Pentax has nothing on stock.
They can only switch the delivery,if any reseller are cancel orders.
QuoteQuote:
The great K is the Mount for all Pentax dslr cameras,don't worry.
It will be developed more and more,look to the current version 4.
But there is absolutely no reason to hold the K for mirrorless,cause you can not use K lenses without adapter.
And be not afraid,the next 2 dslr bodies are K bodies
With a lot of luck,we see the first next Yokohama show.


added 29.09.16:
QuoteQuote:
!!! Attention !!! Q is out of production !!!
!!! Project Q is in ice,maybe over,maybe paused !!!
added 28.09.2016:

Official Photokina Interviews with Mr. Kazunobu Saiki, Senior Management and Group Leader, Marketing Section, Visual Revolution Business Development:
Photokina 2016 Pentax Interview - Photokina 2016 | PentaxForums.com
and
Photokina 2016 interview: Ricoh aims for visual revolution: Digital Photography Review

QuoteQuote:
Photokina.
My number one visit was Pentax,of course.
A couple of ours like every year,visit at my bodies
I checked the firmware 1.30 and could get it on my camera,but nope thanks....forgot my antia bug spray
Had a lot of small talk with Pentax stuff and Pentax customers and newbies.
Talked about sports,high ISO,durability and all the stuff and showed them my pictures for examples.
Every visitor was positive in his reaction,Pentax got a very nice reaction of the public.

Behind the lines.
I talked again with different bodies and with Ricoh stuff,2 years ago a short talk with Saiki san,this year he was stressed up
Had no time
But,I have more contacts and much better and more intense contacts.
The result for me of couple of hours at Pentax :
Q is still in action,but in the second row this time,full frame is the first.
Q will be in right next year.

New fullframe body next time?
NOPE and double no!

Fullframe lenses?
Yes,5 primes in 17 and later new zooms.
Pro and consumer in the class of 28-105.
Than there is the developers roadmap,it's different to the public roadmap.
Public roadmap inserts the ready and clear projects,currently in production.
No fiction,full reality.
In production or pre production,but in direct line to the market and sale.
The developers roadmap,here we have lenses in development,ideas short before to be a prototype,check ups if it's good enough for the market or only a good idea.
But it shows what the development team is thinking and will figure out if it's needed or not.
But,not for public.

Mirror less fullframe,nothing about this,no idea,no information,no comment,not in right or a absolute high class secret.
It looks more like a project,if it's anything.

Pentax is in full progress lens production,maybe first look at cp+.
Pentax hoped they could show anything this year,but Ricoh decided for a big nope
At the weekend before the Photokina,Pentax Japan was sending a mail with a roadmap inside,but....it was the current one
The other thing is,Pentax is still looking inspiration for the lens roadmap,Pentax is still figure out what the customers are wanting,so it could be changing everything.
Pentax knows that not only the old community is in love with the Limiteds,also the newbies are fans.
That was a big surprise for Ricoh that the Pentax style is so special and the sections are so positive.
Same with K-1,I remember the talks all the years and month before fullframe made by Asahi
The result is,Ricoh gives a lot of financial power to the development team in Tokyo.

The new APS-C high end model,K-3ll replacement...
Here we have the same big problem like Nikon have.
Only with the different that the Pentax is still invisible and not ready for show but existing.
Only,not currently in full production.
So,Ricoh decided to show and tell nothing.
Absolute nothing,only maybe cp+.
But nothing about what and how,only a maybe and we hope....
Nothing to keep in the hand.

Video will be not the important thing in a Pentax,so it looks not like that we get an cinema Pentax like red or Sony A 7s.
Pentax will give us photo machines with video function nearby
The other result of the Sony sensor production disaster is,Pentax will have no K-1 on stock till end of this year!
Only small numbers are going direct to the shops and than direct to the consumers with pre order,Pentax will see the K-1 only on paper.
No stock because of the small sensor production.

At last,the numbers of sales are much better than the years before and Pentax is the only company with a little increase in dslr!

The Ricoh theta is still a big success,lots of new consumers and areas.
Google bought a couple of thousand theta and lot of different companies in different branches also.

The 645 is also still a nice success and a very important line in the Pentax portfolio.

What can we do for Pentax?
The marketing and development teams are watching us,hearing us and follow us if we give them real and usable points and ideas for new stuff and lenses.

So let us stay clear and positive in arguments and wishes,Pentax will follow us if it's profitable and feasible.
added 26.09.2016:
QuoteQuote:
Sigma has no plans for a Pentax line of the new art and sport lenses.
My 60 minutes with Sigma and a lot of coffee were interesting but in case of Pentax more sadly than interesting.
The Japanese chief of engineers only shook his head after the point that I know a big pack of Pentax user worldwide with the will to buy this new 85 and all the other new lenses
But nope,Sigma isn't looking for that,no interest.
I gave him current numbers of production and numbers of sale of the K-1 but only answer was,no way currently.
But nobody knows the situation in 2 years.
That was the last sentence and than we talked about the new 4.0 500.
But not anymore about Pentax anyway.
The new 500 is a dream,lightweight and absolute highest end.
But,not for Pentax.
added 22.09.16:

QuoteQuote:
Looks like 2017 can be much more fun for us

QuoteQuote:
The only problem is,it's nothing ready enough to show it at Photokina.
QuoteQuote:
I've said it many times, and i say it again. Nothing major new things from Pentax this time.

added 14.09.16:
QuoteQuote:
There was a comment about this range,but it looks like a consumer 70/100-300 / 4.5-5.6,style like 28-105
QuoteQuote:
And there is not really much to tell for this year anymore.
older

QuoteQuote:
Bigger chance of new 35, 50 and 85 then new version of ltd series.
QuoteQuote:
More primes will come
QuoteQuote:
Do you really expect much news? There might be a little surprise or two, but nothing major.
QuoteQuote:
Dont expect too much WOW at this years Photokina. But there is some nice stuff going on behind closed doors

QuoteQuote:
Yes,the 70 was one of them and all of them.
Everything strictly for 2017 and later,what we will see is a show of the current program,new accessories and maybe new stuff for theta.
With luck,prototypes of lenses behind glass,like last Photokina two years ago.
But nobody knows exactly about these terms,I remember the Photokina under Hoya.
During small talk with the Pentax stuff,behind in the trade area,the Japanese product manager take a grip under the table and than holds two mock ups of the K7 in his hands.
We could try the body and he asks all known Pentax intensive user and reseller,which body would be better.
The smaller or the higher body.
At the end comes the smaller body in form of the KG.
So,a Photokina is never boring.
With open eyes and ears,you will get lots of little things if you can ask and talk with the right people
It looks like,no big photo bomb this Photokina,not only for Pentax.
Massive new stuff is ready and on the market or not a secret anymore.

QuoteQuote:
And exactly this is the old idea of the Photokina.
To show the complete,current program and maybe some new stuff.
The time that the camera and lens manufacturer planned with the date of Photokina,is long time ago.
But boring is the Photokina never,I never will missing one.
QuoteQuote:
I will ask this and other the Europe and the Tokyo Gang at Photokina in Germany.
I also got an interesting answer about my converter questions.
Let's hope for the best and right things,Ricoh is listening and again pushed up the development team in Tokyo for optic systems/photo lenses.
QuoteQuote:
There is no more development of new lenses with old screw drive or old micro SDM drive.
That's what Pentax told.
Only if an older lens will be back in production,it's possible that it get a screw drive.
Complete new lenses are out of screw drive.
QuoteQuote:
The current important building side for Ricoh is the Pentax lens line up.
There are a lots of prototypes and studies of nice pro lenses and also amateur line.
And the last Pentax poll was showing what's going on.
QuoteQuote:
This Photokina should be nice and interesting,but it don't looks like a big WOW this year.
Theta is a big player,the complete Pentax system for showing,maybe Pentax shows lens prototypes behind glass and give the public a lot of information about current and new stuff.
A new K or 645 shouldn't be there.
Pentax typical is to get the most information during Smalltalk with the Pentax stuff and technicians.
QuoteQuote:
But,the success of the complete new fullframe line up,brought the kick ��
RICOH decided that the fullframe system is now the number 1 point for development and financing.
Than 645 and APS-C.
Theta is also very successful.
QuoteQuote:
Theta is a great success,only one example.
Ricoh Pentax Japan sold 10.000 theta to google.
And various other companies are now theta user.
The 645Z and K-1 are a great success for Ricoh Pentax.
Also the new lens line,the sales are that high like the numbers of production.
QuoteQuote:
There is absolute no second fullframe body for the next time.
Not higher and not lower than K-1.
Only lenses and accessories in the next years.
QuoteQuote:
I think we will see the 4.0 100-300 not before autumn 2017.
QuoteQuote:
Looks like a project and one of many patents.
4.0 100-300 is different.
Also the new 2.8 200.
1.4 50
85
60
100
All more than only patents on paper.
The current 100-300 patent is renewned.
QuoteQuote:
Pentax 4.0 / 100-300 is not only a sleeping patent.
QuoteQuote:
There is a good chance that we get the Tamron 1.8 85 at first,cause there is nothing in this range and next year a new D FA* 1.4 85 PENTAX made.
Same range like 2.8 70-200.
What we get for sure is a new D FA* 2.8 200.
A second fullframe camera,maybe lower type is not in progress.
New converter for the current and next teleline is also very possible.
Lots of glass is in development and currently in progress.

QuoteQuote:
The next great one? Which one do you mean �� The new 85?
QuoteQuote:
The first sealed limited was the last new limited,the limited zoom. ��
QuoteQuote:
For sure we see new Ricoh theta stuff,maybe camera. Dslr body and ready lenses,looks like not sadly. But a lot of stuff is pushed back,looks more like CES next year. But nothing for sure till today. ...



Last edited by beholder3; 01-27-2017 at 03:12 AM.
09-13-2016, 11:13 AM - 1 Like   #2
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Thanks for all the tidbits. Could you cite the authors as well? I know it must've taken some work putting this together, but I find it difficult to assign a 'credibility score' to each quote without knowing who said it.
09-13-2016, 11:15 AM   #3
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Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 291
QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Most people come to this section of the forum in search of rumors. They do not care for the haters, whiners and personal x-mas wishlists and self important explanations what "somebody else has to do" which pollute so many threads.

So here I consolidate the bits and pieces our most honorable fortune tellers here have actually provided. If you have any nice sources provide them and I can update this starter post.
One stop shopping without the pain of all the nonsense.

I think if you read all this you get a pretty good idea what is going to happen and what not - regardless of sheep jumping of cliffs and ships.

Here we go:



From my point of view, half of those predictions from honorable fortune tellers are total nonsense but I won't tell you which half.
Time will tell...

Instead of long elaboration of that I just have one comment:
I would like to see some official and global sales figures for K-1 at Photokina.
Pre-order volumes are mystery to me, but based on some figures in a couple of smaller countries which are NOT statistically representative sample not even in Europe, K-1 will definitely have lower priority than 645, APS-C and Theta.
I thought that low production volume is a problem, but in fact demand is also very low.
09-13-2016, 11:27 AM   #4
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Nice summary. Thank you. I can guess who wrote what most of the time and the future looks bright.

What's wrong with 85,000 K-1's a year? Just 10 months ago a certain poster replied to me, "RICOH would be delighted if they sold 40,000 K-1's the first year."

K-1 is a roaring success.

09-13-2016, 11:34 AM - 2 Likes   #5
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Original Poster
QuoteOriginally posted by Kharan Quote
Thanks for all the tidbits. Could you cite the authors as well? I know it must've taken some work putting this together, but I find it difficult to assign a 'credibility score' to each quote without knowing who said it.
Google is your friend if you care for the individual authorship.

All quotes are exclusively from kenspo and asahiman.
09-13-2016, 11:43 AM   #6
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One observation: "I think we will see the 4.0 100-300 not before autumn 2017." - there is no 4.0 100-300.
Of course, the poster never said there is one. Just that he's not expecting anything like that before autumn 2017.
09-13-2016, 11:52 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
All quotes are exclusively from kenspo and asahiman.
I was looking for my best predictions, but not inhere. .....

Nice list.
09-13-2016, 12:19 PM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
One observation: "I think we will see the 4.0 100-300 not before autumn 2017." - there is no 4.0 100-300.
Of course, the poster never said there is one. Just that he's not expecting anything like that before autumn 2017.
I will clear this next week at Photokina.
Best regards

09-13-2016, 12:24 PM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by asahi man Quote
I will clear this next week at Photokina.
Best regards
How about Q and the snorkel camera's? Do they have a future?
09-13-2016, 12:24 PM   #10
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@asahi man:
Thank you. Until you do, the only indication of a 4.0 100-300 is the patent corresponding to the D FA* 70-200mm f/2.8.
09-13-2016, 12:39 PM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
How about Q and the snorkel camera's? Do they have a future?
Yes for those of us who own some Qs and lenses it would be nice to cut to the chase on its rumored demise. Don't know if I need to secure a backup body now or not. .
09-13-2016, 12:41 PM   #12
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Don't worry, in such a case, they will longlastingly and cheaply be available...
09-13-2016, 12:47 PM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
@asahi man:
Thank you. Until you do, the only indication of a 4.0 100-300 is the patent corresponding to the D FA* 70-200mm f/2.8.
There was a comment about this range,but it looks like a consumer 70/100-300 / 4.5-5.6,style like 28-105.
But nothing for sure,maybe Pentax give the small sweets like at every Photokina.
Best regards

---------- Post added 13-09-16 at 21:49 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by RonHendriks1966 Quote
How about Q and the snorkel camera's? Do they have a future?
Absolute no idea,nothing in any small talk.
Since one year,I heard nothing
09-13-2016, 03:13 PM   #14
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If lenses will change and predominantly come without aperture and distance scale, and perhaps some may have a digital read out on the lens, why not have hyper focal distances adjustable via a wheel and visible on the lens or at least on the top lcd for distance and f stop?
This way we have more diverse type of lens for those times when using a distance scale is appropriate.

Last edited by beachgardener; 09-13-2016 at 11:28 PM. Reason: spelling
09-13-2016, 11:26 PM   #15
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Original Poster
QuoteOriginally posted by asahi man Quote
There was a comment about this range,but it looks like a consumer 70/100-300 / 4.5-5.6,style like 28-105.
But nothing for sure,maybe Pentax give the small sweets like at every Photokina.
added to starting post
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