[Kunzite]

IMO the DSLRs only have to fix 2 things, in order to compete with MILCs in all fields (except size, but when did our hands become smaller?):
- "live" viewfinder, important for movies but not much else
- the mechanical, quick-return mirror which limits the maximum frame rate (as sensors are capable of faster read-outs).

As we're well aware, Pentax (Asahi Optical, to be precise) was linked with the introduction of both technologies. It would only be proper if Pentax (under Ricoh Imaging) would be the brand to make the next evolutionary steps.

[RonHendriks1966]

Leica has DSLRs, rangefinder and mirrorless systems. Even if "all world goes mirrorless", so to speak, many will still crave for something different, like the good ol rangefinder, or pentaprism. Those things are classics, like good Italian handmade shoes are.
For example, new Leica M10 came with a much brighter rangefinder than previous models, and people are going bananas about it; the line for the M10 is miles long. Then, great part of charm of the Fujifilm X100 series, its almost cult status, is its hybrid OVF/EVF. Not a single EVF camera has such a devout following, as those cameras with some classic charm.
Let someone make a DSLR with 100% view 1.0x magnification pentaprism, and a few fine lenses, and people will go crazy about it. When EVF becomes commodity, people will crave for rarity, and pay for the unique experience.

It is all about unique experience.

For those who don't like to wait. Leica M10 in stock overhere.
https://www.cameranu.nl/nl/p1538865/leica-m10-systeemcamera-body-zilver
I think the whole camera market is saturated.

[mecrox]

Yes another good point. They bought for cheap, I suspect because it was a small financial risk in case it flopped. But that also means they probably saw Pentax's attributes and decided they were going to market that... since it is already developed. They just have keep it updated.. a lot cheaper than cleaning the slate and starting from the ground up on a brand new system.

Yet Pentax's unique attributes (namely weathersealing and IBIS) aren't so unique anymore in cameras. However, in a DSLR they are still the only brand that have both strong weathersealing and IBIS. So they and the market are seemingly working together to build their niche..

It was a great niche in 2010 to 2012 but these days not nearly so much, and by say 2020? Canon and Nikon will continue to make at least some DSLRs for years if only to service their glass banks so no respite there, but as the segment declines the position of marginal players with only a few percentage points of the market will become harder than it already is. This sounds depressingly all about managing decline with nothing to move over to. Ricoh's new corporate strategy is completely the opposite - reducing exposure to legacy systems - which makes me wonder where lashing oneself to the mast of HMS Mirrorbox really fits in. I don't think it does, which makes me uneasy ...

[Kunzite]

I don't think Pentax is losing ground on the DSLR market. Please, stop the FUD.

[mee]

It was a great niche in 2010 to 2012 but these days not nearly so much, and by say 2020? Canon and Nikon will continue to make at least some DSLRs for years if only to service their glass banks so no respite there, but as the segment declines the position of marginal players with only a few percentage points of the market will become harder than it already is. This sounds depressingly all about managing decline with nothing to move over to. Ricoh's new corporate strategy is completely the opposite - reducing exposure to legacy systems - which makes me wonder where lashing oneself to the mast of HMS Mirrorbox really fits in. I don't think it does, which makes me uneasy ...

haha then they are in trouble if they stay with DSLRs and, I see, are in trouble if they shift to a new platform. This is what I was referring to with the mirrorless hypetrain. It is contagious and spreading rapidly. Yet shooting with mirrorless or DSLR, one cannot tell which was used just by looking at the resultant image. Therefore, there is no inherent flaw in DSLR technology; there isn't an analog versus digital sized shift between digital mirrorless and digital SLR bodies.


The loud perception online is that DSLR is old and thus outdated and mirrorless is new and thus somehow definitively superior. It is the way 'forward' just like digital was when film was king. But that is tough to prove. Yet Fuji, Olympus, Sony, etc all want us to believe this since they have lashed themselves to the mast of SS Mirrorless and they want us to give them money. The market is trending that direction if we believe the noise online. And if the noise online is believed, the market will indeed trend in that direction. Snowball is rolling down the hill. Yet, assuming that is correct, the trend doesn't mean there aren't enough big pockets of air for DSLRs to live.


However, I still don't think it will all go mirrorless. As photooptimist said, and I further suspect, there are enough buyers to offer DSLRs in the future.


2020 is only two and a half years away.. I think by then we MIGHT have a comfortably large range of new D-FAs for the K-1 available. And, perhaps, a K-1 mark II. A DSLR, of course.


I suspect it will sell well too.. well enough to keep making them.


Even if we saw a mirrorless Pentax, I strongly suspect it would retain K mount and its registration distance. If we were going to see a tiny mirrorless body out of Ricoh Imaging it would more likely be labeled a Ricoh and just happen to have a K mount adapter... on the side from what they offer as actual Pentax bodies.

[mecrox]

haha then they are in trouble if they stay with DSLRs and, I see, are in trouble if they shift to a new platform. This is what I was referring to with the mirrorless hypetrain. It is contagious and spreading rapidly. Yet shooting with mirrorless or DSLR, one cannot tell which was used just by looking at the resultant image. Therefore, there is no inherent flaw in DSLR technology; there isn't an analog versus digital sized shift between digital mirrorless and digital SLR bodies.


The loud perception online is that DSLR is old and thus outdated and mirrorless is new and thus somehow definitively superior. It is the way 'forward' just like digital was when film was king. But that is tough to prove. Yet Fuji, Olympus, Sony, etc all want us to believe this since they have lashed themselves to the mast of SS Mirrorless and they want us to give them money. The market is trending that direction if we believe the noise online. And if the noise online is believed, the market will indeed trend in that direction. Snowball is rolling down the hill. Yet, assuming that is correct, the trend doesn't mean there aren't enough big pockets of air for DSLRs to live.


However, I still don't think it will all go mirrorless. As photooptimist said, and I further suspect, there are enough buyers to offer DSLRs in the future.


2020 is only two and a half years away.. I think by then we MIGHT have a comfortably large range of new D-FAs for the K-1 available. And, perhaps, a K-1 mark II. A DSLR, of course.


I suspect it will sell well too.. well enough to keep making them.


Even if we saw a mirrorless Pentax, I strongly suspect it would retain K mount and its registration distance. If we were going to see a tiny mirrorless body out of Ricoh Imaging it would more likely be labeled a Ricoh and just happen to have a K mount adapter... on the side from what they offer as actual Pentax bodies.

There's no hypetrain about mirrorless cameras, or there shouldn't be. They are simply modern technology applied to the imaging industry. It's a normal progression and there is nothing remarkable about that at all. The misconception here is that people seem to think planning for the gradual adoption of a new platform is too risky to comtemplate. Yes, there is risk. But it is only riskier than the alternative, which is sticking to the present platform until it runs into the sands, and then folding. So all one is left with is "adopting a new platform over time is more risky than sticking to the current platform and then closing down the business when it runs out of demand." I am sure there will continue to be DSLR-buyers in the future, but as I said, most of them (at present, it is 95 per cent of them) will be Canon and Nikon buyers and they will mostly all be getting on a bit, as they say. Without an alternative platform in prospect, it's just managing decline with only one outcome in view as today's DSLR market winds down and one holds only 5 per cent of it to begin with. If that's Ricoh's wish then fine - they own the business after all. But let's not kid ourselves it's a great result.

[goldenarrow]

Yet shooting with mirrorless or DSLR, one cannot tell which was used just by looking at the resultant image. Therefore, there is no inherent flaw in DSLR technology; there isn't an analog versus digital sized shift between digital mirrorless and digital SLR bodies.

Doesn't the "big deal" with mirrorless get rid of the mirror and its resulting "slap" of vibration?? This usually is more of a concern with Medium format because of the large size of the mirror and the frequency of the vibrations interfering with the most useful shutter speeds. Does mirrorless then also allow other things to be implemented easier like mixing different types of AF sensors a little easier (cheaper) to manufacture? And of course, anything that is smaller and cool looking is supposedly "better". I don't see the technical benefits of mirrorless vs. DSLR. Is there a good internet technical paper that details the benefits of mirrorless vs. DSLR's? I truly would like to know what the hype is all about.

[RonHendriks1966]

I don't think Pentax is losing ground on the DSLR market. Please, stop the FUD.

Depending what you would count. They manage to keep sales in yen on the same level last year as the previews one. That means less units sales, since all new products K-1 and new d-FA lenses are more expensive. The Japanese market for dslr is in hard decline, so there is plenty of reason to think this hits Pentax too. I see no FUD in this....

[Kunzite]

There's no hypetrain about mirrorless cameras

Then, what are those "DSLRs are dying, MILCs are the future" folks are doing?

[mee]

Depending what you would count. They manage to keep sales in yen on the same level last year as the previews one. That means less units sales, since all new products K-1 and new d-FA lenses are more expensive. The Japanese market for dslr is in hard decline, so there is plenty of reason to think this hits Pentax too. I see no FUD in this....

Perhaps we need to look at more points of data... being number of years. One or two years could be an anomaly. And, even if not, is there any reason that Ricoh wouldn't aim their cameras squarely at what is left of the camera buying public that are interested in DSLRs? They clearly don't care to be number one or two so they seem to be happy with being a small player.

[RonHendriks1966]

Perhaps we need to look at more points of data... being number of years. One or two years could be an anomaly. And, even if not, is there any reason that Ricoh wouldn't aim their cameras squarely at what is left of the camera buying public that are interested in DSLRs? They clearly don't care to be number one or two so they seem to be happy with being a small player.

Ofcourse you can be a good player in the field with a small marketshare. As long as your operation is build to that level. Pentax was much bigger like 5-6 years ago. But the total market for dslr was like twice as big as it is today.

And on july 28th Ricoh comes with a new financial report.

[Mistral75]

(...)

What's interesting to me is that a DSLR can operate in mirrorless mode, but a mirrorless camera can't operate in DSLR mode. Mirrorless is simply the less capable, less versatile architecture. That's not to say mirrorless can't be very popular for many good reasons. But there will always be some percent of the market that wants more or can't stand EVFs.

In the '50s you could have said the same of rangefinder cameras versus SLR cameras: a rangefinder camera can operate in SLR mode (Visoflex), but a SLR camera can't operate in rangefinder mode.

We all know the outcome of the story.

[Kunzite]

Invalid analogies are being used when one can't argue on the actual subject. Chariots vs. cars, film vs digital, rangefinders vs SLRs - they all have in common one thing: they're irrelevant here.

[Mistral75]

With all due respect, Kunzite: who entrusted you with the power to decide which analogies are valid/relevant and which ones are invalid/irrelevant?

[Uluru]

I have no great doubts that those engineers have a new system ready. It is only a matter of month of revealing it, not decade. But they are not rattling their sabres showing it up in advance, disturbing folk or market still relatively happy buying current stuff.

But the player that had burned the bridge on this path is Sony, and the crest of the wave is the A7II/A9 — when A9 tech starts diffusing into lower models, same what Nikon does with D5 tech, and A9 tech comes to future crop mirrorless, say some A6400 sold for $700-800 … then Ricoh Imaging cannot afford to say, "Oops".

The pressure on a small player is enormous. Not only big players like Nikon and Canon have better advanced DSLR tech, which they diffuse into lower models and are doing it right now, Sony now has the same, and Panasonic too.

Leica too is there — I mean, Leica!? Has anyone seen how all the tech from the top end Leica SL distilled into Leica TL2? Leica TL2 can do even more, same 20 fps as Sony A9.

For Ricoh Imaging it is the other way round — their most advanced tech is a medium range DSLR model (in terms of market position and capabilities), from which they diffuse tech and economy of scale up to FF and MF, and down to cheaper crop DSLRs.

Not everything is in mighty specs, though. There is still a lot in photographic experience. But some moments demand some radical steps forward, and this is one such moment for the entire industry, and it seems all players have silently agreed how to stay on board. All but Ricoh Imaging, who reveals nothing new. (But it doesn't mean they have nothing to show yet.)

However, if they decide there is just too much pressure, and work to be done, too much money to spend to gain little or nothing, and decide to close the shop and do something else, I would not blame them at all.