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01-16-2017, 02:54 PM   #106
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
According to BCN, Sony's market share halved, yes, but over two years and against more and more competition in the mirrorless market, including from powerful newcomers well known from customers (Canon).

BCN record data from two thirds of the retail outlets in Japan. It's a bit easy to say that the remaining third is where Pentax and Sony sell most of their cameras...
The 2/3 (if in fact true) may represent a number of chains that are big on Canon distribution deals.

Who knows? You don't.

01-16-2017, 02:57 PM   #107
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
My apologies, I am not saying your figures are wrong at all, necessarily, but estimating this stuff is incredibly difficult. There are so many variables and of course many camera outfits are coy about their figures. For example, where do the figures for the Pentax market share come from? Ricoh must see those as a trade secret. The key, imho, is profitability. If that can be sustained even on reduced unit sales then things are broadly stable. I would guess that is Ricoh's aim. All camera-makers have been seeing declining sales and the markets have been down, we can certainly say that.
Brand market shares come from BCN, which gather figures (number of units of each SKU sold) from two thirds of the Japanese outlets, as explained above. This is not perfect, of course, but gives a solid basis.

You are right, these figures are about units sold and don't tell much about turnover and even less about margins. Even though, I would prefer them showing an increase rather than a 40% decrease.

But my starting point, which will also be my conclusion, was different: due to its strong decline over the last years, the Japanese market can't be the main market for Pentax DSLRs any more (if it ever was). That's all.
01-16-2017, 03:00 PM   #108
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
According to BCN, Sony's market share halved, yes, but over two years and against more and more competition in the mirrorless market, including from powerful newcomers well known from customers (Canon).

BCN record data from two thirds of the retail outlets in Japan. It's a bit easy to say that the remaining third is where Pentax and Sony sell most of their cameras...
Are you sure it's two thirds? I could only find a list of 23 retail chains, one of which being called "Samsung Camera".
01-16-2017, 03:01 PM   #109
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
The 2/3 (if in fact true) may represent a number of chains that are big on Canon distribution deals.

Who knows? You don't.
Indeed, and you are entitled to break the thermometer, considering the temperature in your bottom (or your mouth or under your armpit, depending on the local culture) isn't representative of the temperature of your body as a whole. Nevertheless...

---------- Post added 01-16-2017 at 11:02 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
Are you sure it's two thirds? I could only find a list of 23 retail chains, one of which being called "Samsung Camera".
Pretty sure, yes. I'd have to retrieve the specific reference.

01-16-2017, 03:03 PM   #110
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
.

But my starting point, which will also be my conclusion, was different: due to its strong decline over the last years, the Japanese market can't be the main market for Pentax DSLRs any more (if it ever was). That's all.

Again, how do you know?

There has been a strong decline in the DSLR market all over the world since 2012, according to CIPA.

Pentax seems to have disappeared from non-Japanese B&Ms if we pay attention to what our forum members have been saying.


01-16-2017, 03:04 PM   #111
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Brand market shares come from BCN, which gather figures (number of units of each SKU sold) from two thirds of the Japanese outlets, as explained above. This is not perfect, of course, but gives a solid basis.

You are right, these figures are about units sold and don't tell much about turnover and even less about margins. Even though, I would prefer them showing an increase rather than a 40% decrease.

But my starting point, which will also be my conclusion, was different: due to its strong decline over the last years, the Japanese market can't be the main market for Pentax DSLRs any more (if it ever was). That's all.
A good point but supposing it is true that Pentax relies on Japan, decline or no? Bear in mind that nothing is constant. A big new camera bumps up market share and sales in one year which may decline quite naturally two years later, until the next big launch, etc. So turnover may well look more like an undulating wave than a line for a smaller company with only a few products in its portfolio. And in terms of value from unit sales, some 645Zs and K1s equate to an awful lot of cheaper APS-C cameras which means that an apparently smaller market share may in fact produce a higher turnover. If - big if - this is what Pentax have managed with those two cameras, particularly the K1, then they are actually doing very well.

Last edited by mecrox; 01-16-2017 at 10:24 PM.
01-16-2017, 03:05 PM   #112
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Pretty sure, yes. I'd have to retrieve the specific reference.
If it's not too bothersome...
I vaguely remember reading something about 40% on the old website, but I can't be sure. Now, there are those 23 retail chains...
01-16-2017, 05:34 PM   #113
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Again, how do you know?

There has been a strong decline in the DSLR market all over the world since 2012, according to CIPA.

Pentax seems to have disappeared from non-Japanese B&Ms if we pay attention to what our forum members have been saying.
The CIPA figures also told us that the decline was slowing.

As for B&M disappearances, even our little photo franchise here has displayed the K-3 and the K-1 shortly after their respective launches. I think the main decline has been in North America and some parts of Europe.

01-16-2017, 09:35 PM   #114
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Indeed, and you are entitled to break the thermometer, considering the temperature in your bottom (or your mouth or under your armpit, depending on the local culture) isn't representative of the temperature of your body as a whole. Nevertheless...
With due respect, that's a terrible analogy, Mistral.

What we're talking about is sampling, and your choice of a valid sample is like a phone poll, or the way hit record rankings used to be done - it's coverage bias.

Some alarm bells ring when you look at those results ... they do not concur with other measures.

There is not one Canon or Olympus mirrorless in the current Amazon Top 20 ILC Best Sellers list and five Sony models, for instance, yet look at the rankings BCN claims for these three companies!

Now, as far as Japan vs the Rest of the World for Ricoh, we do have data from their last financial report.

Japanese revenue of the 'Other' division is listed as 48,300 millions of yen, 'Overseas' as 8612.

We might quibble about what else 'Other' does than cameras and lenses, but that split is 85 percent Japan, North America about 4 percent, Europe/Africa about 6 percent.

This looks to me like a domestic camera brand.

The division increased sales last year when throughout the rest of the industry they plunged, so we must give the decision makers credit where credit's due.

For English speakers like myself to insist on the way Pentax runs its affairs is very much the tail wagging the dog.

Last edited by clackers; 01-16-2017 at 10:08 PM.
01-16-2017, 11:34 PM   #115
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QuoteOriginally posted by FantasticMrFox Quote
I find it slightly odd to find consumers celebrate reduced choice and potentially higher prices because it means the company that manufactures their camera can make more money that way ...
You are on Pentax Forums... this is the domain of fanboys and fangirls
01-16-2017, 11:54 PM   #116
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QuoteOriginally posted by Zephos Quote
You are on Pentax Forums... this is the domain of fanboys and fangirls
You, my friend, must not have been on these forums long enough, or read enough threads, to see the self-criticism and pessimism.

Let me send you a 'Pentax Is Doomed' T-shirt ... size 'M' okay?
01-17-2017, 02:27 AM   #117
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
If it's not too bothersome...
I vaguely remember reading something about 40% on the old website, but I can't be sure. Now, there are those 23 retail chains...
Sorry, I couldn't find the original source. I remember it was a Japanese one, probably not BCN themselves but some Japanese online report (Bloomberg, Nikkei, something like that).

The best I can do is to point out that the same 2/3 ratio has been reported since by Photo Rumors and Nikon Rumors (it's the same guy behind both websites): "BCN collects sales data from approximately 2/3 of all Japanese retail stores". Unfortunately they don't quote their source either.
01-17-2017, 02:44 AM   #118
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Thank you for trying. It might be impossible to find the information, after they changed the website

By the way, some time ago JPT noticed that enthusiast-targeting camera stores like Yodobashi, Fujiya and Map Camera are missing:
QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
It's important to understand how BCN Ranking gathers its data. On this page, they list 22 retailers that participate in their survey.

BCN?????? | ??????????No1???????? BCN AWARD

Included are Amazon and Rakuten and some large electronics retailers like Bic Camera. It's notable that some of the stores which are more popular with enthusiasts are not in there, like Yodobashi, Fujiya and Map Camera. Since Pentax is more of an enthusiast brand, I wouldn't expect it to do well on BCN. In fact Fujifilm always does terribly in BCN data as well. If you want to see an illustration of how different types of stores attract different groups of customers, compare the current BCN Ranking to the current Kakaku.com ranking.

BCN: ????????????????BCN?????????
Kakaku.com: http://kakaku.com/camera/digital-slr-camera/ranking_0049/

When comparing data year to year, we would need to know which retailers were participating in those years. I suspect that some of the big retailers, like Amazon or Rakuten, have joined in the last few years and shifted the balance towards Canon and Nikon.

If Ricoh had really had such a complete collapse in their Japan sales, it would show up in their financial reports, but I don't think that has happened. There is no cause for alarm here.
01-17-2017, 03:00 AM   #119
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OK another long thread that gets out of topic quite often and becomes chaotic thus quite interesting!

Going back at the initial topic, I'm really wondering whether it presents no economical interest to third party companies like Sigma or Tamron to offer targeted products-lenses to fill existing gaps of smaller companies, like Pentax. When there is a monopoly there are some profit opportunities. They offer lenses that compete with existing similar OEM ones targeted to very wide customer bases, but targeted products for specific audiences may bring profits as well. Instead of all this common focal length lenses (that they justifiably don't make for smaller brands) they should release for example in K-mount only those of their newer lenses that fill gaps on the current Pentax lensmap (eg fisheye lens, super wide primes, super tele primes, an 135mm prime, a longer than 100mm macro lens etc).

But I suspect they have already checked this and came up with the conclusion that it doesn't worth the investment...
01-17-2017, 03:19 AM - 1 Like   #120
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
(...)

Now, as far as Japan vs the Rest of the World for Ricoh, we do have data from their last financial report.

Japanese revenue of the 'Other' division is listed as 48,300 millions of yen, 'Overseas' as 8612.

We might quibble about what else 'Other' does than cameras and lenses, but that split is 85 percent Japan, North America about 4 percent, Europe/Africa about 6 percent.

This looks to me like a domestic camera brand.

The division increased sales last year when throughout the rest of the industry they plunged, so we must give the decision makers credit where credit's due.

(...)
Thank you clackers for this interesting exchange of view. Let me however point out that there is much more in the 'Other' division than ILCs and interchangeable lenses. There are some sales from compact cameras but let's consider them as negligible. There are the Theta sales, which I have no idea of but assume they are material. Moreover, there are the Leasing activities in Japan and all those we don't know of (we discovered the Japanese apparel outlets when they sold them).

Let's go now from qualitative from quantitative. You pointed out yourself the consolidated sales of the 'Other' division during the first half of Ricoh's financial year, i.e. from April to September 2016: JPY 56.912 billion, of which JPY 48.300 billion in Japan and JPY 8.612 billion overseas.

Let's have a look at the CIPA figures for Japan and for the same period (obtained by subtracting the January-March figures from the January-September figures):

- Shipments of ILCs (DSLRs and mirrorless): JPY 29.415 billion
- Shipments of interchangeable lenses: JPY 25.884 billion
- Total: JPY 55.300 billion.

In other words, the sales of Ricoh's 'Other' division in Japan represented 87 per cent. of the sales of ILCs and lenses by all Japanese camera makers (Ricoh Imaging included)!

Let's assume a (very generous) 10-15% market share for the Pentax brand in Japan (ILCs + lenses). Under this assumption, the 'Other' division sales in Japan that do not come from Pentax represented between 83% and 89% of the total.

Under this circumstances, how could one draw any conclusion regarding the Pentax activity in Japan from the figures of the 'Other' division?

By the way, the same kind of calculation shows that the market share of Pentax outside Japan is less than 2.3 per cent ("less than" because there is more in the JPY 8.612 billion sales of the 'Other' division outside Japan than Pentax; Theta sales for instance).
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