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01-20-2017, 04:43 AM   #46
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QuoteOriginally posted by bigfoxkiB Quote
I am surprise Sony is not there after their monster-like A99II.
Monsters don't sell well, it's the little kids like T6, D3400 that sell.

01-20-2017, 04:56 AM   #47
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QuoteOriginally posted by eurostar Quote
Can you explain what have you combined? At first I believed you summed shipment to abroad (CIPA) and Japan domestic sales (BCN), but units sold should be in the millions...
Japan is about 1,6 million units out of 13 million units worldwide.
It is also worthwhile noting that the Japanese market is the most advanced DSLM market with having 1/5 of the global DSLM sales, whereas it only has about 1/10 of global DSLR sales.
In Japan the DSLRSLM ratio ist about 1,5:1, where in the americas it is 5:1.
So the total units of DSLM sold in Japan can not be extrapolated to be representative for any other market region. It is grossly overinflated there. So the curves for Sony, Olympus, Panasonic look even worse in other regions.

Simple:
  • Take the annual CIPA camera sales report; for 2016 I took the January-to-November partial numbers and added the November numbers one more time to make it 12 months worth.
  • look at column "Shipments to Japan" once for SLR and once for DSLM; those are the full unit sales figures; only 649,284 pieces of DSLM were sold in Japan in all of 2015.
  • Then multiply those total units with market share values given by BCN (as mentioned before: BCN figure year N corresponds to CIPA figure year N-1
In the end you get these graphs:





01-20-2017, 08:41 AM   #48
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QuoteOriginally posted by ozturert Quote
Monsters don't sell well, it's the little kids like T6, D3400 that sell.
But don't make any money.
01-20-2017, 10:35 AM   #49
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
But don't make any money.
They make more money than A99II in total, although profit margin is very low.
And you become the market leader.

01-20-2017, 10:37 AM   #50
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Profit margin can be negative - the reason why companies struggled to abandon compacts. The position of market leader has no value if you're bleeding money.
01-20-2017, 05:18 PM   #51
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But Canon isn't bleeding, according to financial results. I think this is the result of slow iteration in entry level products. Changing 2-3 things and calling it "a new product" does not add huge cost to production and development. I'm sure that Canon made good profit between 600D and 700D. I'm not saying they make huge profit from these, on the other hand selling these cameras makes you market leader.
If Nikon could hold the Nikon 1 prices down (V1, V2 and V3 series) they could have a bigger share in mirrorless market and that would be a cost advantage on their side (more sales -> more production -> less cost) but they didn't. Even J series were expensive at the beginning (before huge discounts).
01-20-2017, 05:28 PM   #52
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Canon might not be bleeding, but do you know who isn't doing very well? Nikon, who tried to beat Canon.
And even for Canon, I'm not sure that the low end models sold in supermarkets are profitable.
01-20-2017, 08:02 PM   #53
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QuoteOriginally posted by ozturert Quote
But Canon isn't bleeding, according to financial results.
Not like Nikon, but it's still ugly - the Image Systems unit is down a horrible 18 percent. Sounds like bleeding to me ... an industry-wide problem.

Canon Financial Results


Last edited by clackers; 01-20-2017 at 11:16 PM.
01-20-2017, 11:54 PM - 1 Like   #54
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QuoteOriginally posted by ozturert Quote
Monsters don't sell well, it's the little kids like T6, D3400 that sell.
I thought kids with be like bee to honey on that camera, likes every time a new smart phone comes out.
Luckily I am wrong
01-21-2017, 04:43 AM - 1 Like   #55
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QuoteOriginally posted by bigfoxkiB Quote
I thought kids with be like bee to honey on that camera, likes every time a new smart phone comes out.
Luckily I am wrong
Ahaha

---------- Post added 01-21-17 at 04:44 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Not like Nikon, but it's still ugly - the Image Systems unit is down a horrible 18 percent. Sounds like bleeding to me ... an industry-wide problem.

Canon Financial Results
That's due to decline in total sales, not due to cost/profit margin per product, I guess.
01-21-2017, 05:07 AM   #56
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QuoteOriginally posted by ozturert Quote

That's due to decline in total sales, not due to cost/profit margin per product, I guess.
So covering the gap between falling sales and increasing markup on that remaining which actually sells has failed by 18 percent, right?

Last edited by clackers; 01-21-2017 at 05:13 AM.
01-21-2017, 06:33 AM - 3 Likes   #57
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Frankly, prior to the great digital conversion last decade I don't think SLR sales were 'robust'. I think we're returning to the regular SLR turnover in the west and waiting for higher growth in ASEAN countries. Canon and Nikon overbuilt to supply American soccer moms and the sensor upgrade cycle. Those soccer babies are now $50,000 a year college students and the camera is on a shelf. The big sensor R&D is directed to machine vision (autonomous cars and robots).

Cameras are too good now. It won't matter what anyone introduces. I don't need a camera until my K-1 breaks.
01-21-2017, 08:25 AM   #58
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
So covering the gap between falling sales and increasing markup on that remaining which actually sells has failed by 18 percent, right?
When the total sales have declined over the last 3-4 years, some companies are targeting high cost high profit products. Sony and Fuji are leading that pack, and Nikon has been pumping FF cameras and somehow neglecting DX market. Canon on the other hand has been more stable, I guess. They still sell more than all other companies combined, and I think though they lost revenue they lost less then others (percentage-wise). I hope I'm looking at right numbers, by the way.
Pentax... I cannot understand Pentax's strategy. Maybe it's me.
That's how I see.
And I don't care who loses how much, I don't see the companies will recover if they don't change their strategy ASAP. Most buyers don't need faster cameras or more MP or faster AF or more AF points. I don't have the answer to recover the decline, but to me it's obvious that existing strategies will not cut it.
01-21-2017, 08:57 AM   #59
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Frankly, prior to the great digital conversion last decade I don't think SLR sales were 'robust'. I think we're returning to the regular SLR turnover in the west and waiting for higher growth in ASEAN countries. Canon and Nikon overbuilt to supply American soccer moms and the sensor upgrade cycle. Those soccer babies are now $50,000 a year college students and the camera is on a shelf. The big sensor R&D is directed to machine vision (autonomous cars and robots).

Cameras are too good now. It won't matter what anyone introduces. I don't need a camera until my K-1 breaks.
I've been stuck on 16MP APS-C and M4/3 sensors for the past 4 years. I don't feel like I'm suffering because of it. More impetus for me to upgrade would be a much better VF, rather than more MP or faster AF.

Decent quality smartphone cameras were the most recent paradigm shift in "imaging for the masses". Perhaps the next will be quality wearable imaging with AI to determine what a "good photo" is and automatically capture it.

This Kodak Moment brought to you by Skynet.
01-21-2017, 09:13 AM   #60
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It's not you who is suffering, but the camera sales.
By the way, you can upgrade to a much better VF right now - go get your K-1, what are you waiting for?
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