Originally posted by Pål Jensen We have heard this for at least 35 years....
And I've heard that remark at least 7 years since I started frequenting this site.
Actually, these entire discussions have been circulating for eons.. yet we still have them.
Look at the state of affairs.. Now major 3rd parties have said hasta la vista in the past 5 years. That can't be good for growing.
So I don't think they grow too much. Ricoh/Pentax stays niche.. really niche. Almost Hasselblad niche. Actually, I personally wonder if Sigma would like Pentax to fold. One less camera mount out there and one less band of customers asking for lenses in that mount. Yet no one here can, with certainty, state what happens to any of these companies years out.
5 years ago Samsung had 12% of the digital camera market. 12 percent!!!! Today, they've disbanded that division entirely. Gone.
Pentax held 1.62% then. I think, today, they are around 5-6%. So they've grown, but I suspect that growth is largely from absorption of the customers of failed companies and products. It is fish eat fish out there.
That is to say, it hasn't been for revolutionary changes on Ricoh's part. There aren't many to make at this point... the market has matured.
So the question is.. Who stays and who goes? The guy interviewed, in 2013, in this article claimed Nikon would be toast in 2018
Point, shoot, collapse: Why big camera companies are the next BlackBerry | Financial Post So there is and has been a lot of uncertainty in the camera market. Only until the market bottoms out will we see the winners and the losers.
But that doesn't matter to the budding photographer who just wants a 'pro' camera and some 'pro' lenses. They just want a solid working camera that outputs sharp images through lenses that perform reliably at the focal lengths they desire. I'm sure some market consideration can and does take place, but largely I suspect not.. which is why it matters to have a competitive lineup of lenses and cameras in a mature market of lenses and cameras. The consumer today expects instant-now delivery. Pentax seems to go against the grain of that with the old 'When it is ready, it is ready' mentality.
It is also why I think Pentax stays tiny... but doesn't disappear entirely.. so long as they stay on the correct side of the 'conservative' line in a very dynamic setting.