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05-10-2017, 12:55 AM   #421
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Why not?

I think the biggest thing is to have the tech right -- decent EVF, fast enough frame rate, fast enough auto focus. I don't know if Pentax could get there with a mirrorless design, but that probably isn't related to the registration distance. Assuming they could, releasing the camera with a whole line up of excellent native lenses would be a definite plus compared with trying to roll out the necessary lenses over a ten year time period.[
I suppose I should ask you to place your bet, good sir. On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely do you think it is that within two years Pentax will have rolled out a brand-new MILC concept and a whole line of excellent native lenses to go with it? I'm thinking here of at least APS-C or M43-ish in size, but not a smaller sensor.


Last edited by mecrox; 05-10-2017 at 01:04 AM.
05-10-2017, 02:24 AM   #422
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I think the whole goal of mirrorless/EVF technology from the companies making them is to create a camera that can be produced more cheaply than SLRs and thereby generate more profit. Somehow it hasn't turned out that way to this point. Sony's cheap APS-C cameras are priced pretty similarly to Canon and Nikon's cheap APS-C SLRs and the same with the expensive stuff. Maybe Sony is rolling in profit, but it hasn't showed on their bottom line yet.
The price is driven by the competition, not by the manufacturing costs. If you get a unique product, you can ask for a higher price.
QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
From a photographer's standpoint, there is less difference than there is sameness between mirrorless and SLR models. Both have the same modes of operation, both have similar features, and both actually end up being similarly sized when you use anything but a wide angle prime. I think we need to understand also that if Pentax releases a me-too product -- basically a Sony mirrorless knock off, but maybe with slightly worse EVF and performance -- it wouldn't sell much. Tech hasn't been Pentax's forte over the years and that is what mirrorless cameras are all about.

Personally, I would like to see a K-02 -- keeping the k mount, but including more recent technology -- a full frame sensor, PDAF on the sensor, EVF, etc. It could be the perfect complement to the FA limiteds.
I am with you, I think it is the way for Pentax to implemente mirrorless technology, as the only competition now in FF mirrorless is the Sony A7 series, which everyone seems to agree that it has outstanding specs and performance but poor ergonomy, haptics and built quality. Once Canon or Nikon will entry this market, it might be too late for Pentax.
05-10-2017, 02:29 AM - 1 Like   #423
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
I suppose I should ask you to place your bet, good sir. On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely do you think it is that within two years Pentax will have rolled out a brand-new MILC concept and a whole line of excellent native lenses to go with it? I'm thinking here of at least APS-C or M43-ish in size, but not a smaller sensor.
My guess would be three to five years till they would release something on that order. Pentax is often late with their releases, but they usually end up getting there. I still think odds are good that such a release would retain a k mount and not have a different mount, in which case there would be a pretty full line up available for it on release.
05-10-2017, 03:08 AM   #424
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
My guess would be three to five years till they would release something on that order. Pentax is often late with their releases, but they usually end up getting there. I still think odds are good that such a release would retain a k mount and not have a different mount, in which case there would be a pretty full line up available for it on release.
Interesting. My guess on 1 to 10 in the next two years is

1 - APS-C type MILC
Reason: They don't have the lenses. Screwdrive lenses or old SDM ones on a modern MILC? Only for hardcore Pentax owners. And current resources are all -> FF.

5 - 645 platform
Reason: In danger of losing the platform if they allow Hassy and Fuji to take over.

7 - Any larger sensor within the next five to seven years.
Reason: It will eventually be foster a MILC segment or become unviable.

Naturally, this will soon all turn out to be b*lls. None of us really knows anything as the man said.

05-10-2017, 08:14 AM   #425
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Interesting. My guess on 1 to 10 in the next two years is

1 - APS-C type MILC
Reason: They don't have the lenses. Screwdrive lenses or old SDM ones on a modern MILC? Only for hardcore Pentax owners. And current resources are all -> FF.

5 - 645 platform
Reason: In danger of losing the platform if they allow Hassy and Fuji to take over.

7 - Any larger sensor within the next five to seven years.
Reason: It will eventually be foster a MILC segment or become unviable.

Naturally, this will soon all turn out to be b*lls. None of us really knows anything as the man said.
Hard to say. I will say that I think the micro four thirds market is going to be under a serious squeeze in the future. Market is going to splinter with smart phones on one hand and large sensors on the other. Hard to imagine Olympus being able to charge 1000 dollars for a four thirds camera without even the option of upgrading to a larger sensor.

As to what Pentax does, it depends on how they read the tea leaves. They do tend to be conservative, but clearly they are doing some interesting things with Theta, etc.
05-10-2017, 08:28 AM   #426
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Hard to say. I will say that I think the micro four thirds market is going to be under a serious squeeze in the future. Market is going to splinter with smart phones on one hand and large sensors on the other. Hard to imagine Olympus being able to charge 1000 dollars for a four thirds camera without even the option of upgrading to a larger sensor.

As to what Pentax does, it depends on how they read the tea leaves. They do tend to be conservative, but clearly they are doing some interesting things with Theta, etc.
I think you are quite right about M43. Oly and Panasonic have gone up the market with larger and much more expensive equipment recently, but this rather negates the point of M43 and the size-quality-value equation just collapses when folks are asked to buy things as costly and almost as large as they are on APS-C or even FF in some cases, imho. Panasonic might do well with their M43 video side, though. Seems very capable and draws high praise. And some of the Panasonic lenses are darn good. But not so rosy for Olympus.
05-10-2017, 08:38 AM   #427
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Wasn't there a hint (quickly slapped down) about 645?
05-10-2017, 09:16 AM - 1 Like   #428
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The rapid growth of the smartphone camera shows that the vast majority of photographers (in the broadest sense of the term) do not care about sensor size. Tiny sensors (+ clever noise reduction algorithms) are good enough and getting better. It's only the upper echelons of the photography market that want big sensors in order to get the highest-possible DR, narrowest depth of field, and highest usable ISO. Yet the same physics that makes big sensors great at collecting light makes then hard to read-out the data fast enough for good video and low-lag EVFs. Physics also makes optics a lot larger and more costly for larger sensor cameras.

The larger issue is that the photography market will NEVER converge because photographer's needs and desires will never converge. Some want big cameras, some want small ones, some want high-reach, some want large aperture, some want video, some don't care about video, some want OVFs, some want EVFs, some want 20 frames-per-second, some take one frame per hour. Add in brand loyalty issues and user interface preferences, and there's room for lots of formats from lots of makers.


Last edited by photoptimist; 05-10-2017 at 09:39 AM. Reason: typo
05-10-2017, 09:21 AM   #429
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
The three reasons that K-mount backward compatibility matters are lenses, lenses and lenses.
  1. You don't want to obsolete your substantial existing inventory of K-mount lenses
  2. Your current customers don't want you to obsolete their substantial existing inventory of K-mount lenses.
  3. Your capital allocation decision makers don't want you to commit the firm to development of a catalog of lenses that obsoletes your substantial existing inventory of K-mount lenses tools and your K-mount lenses knowledge base
That doesn't mean you shouldn't do it - but there are strong headwinds . . . .
Enter the Q mount. If they were going to do all of the above they shouldn't have wasted it on a dead end cell phone sensor platform.
05-10-2017, 09:21 AM - 2 Likes   #430
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I protest against using the term "photographer" in that broadest sense.
05-10-2017, 09:45 AM   #431
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QuoteOriginally posted by wjjstu Quote
Enter the Q mount. If they were going to do all of the above they shouldn't have wasted it on a dead end cell phone sensor platform.
Uhmmm, that's precisely why they did the Q mount .
05-10-2017, 09:56 AM   #432
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I protest against using the term "photographer" in that broadest sense.
LOL!

The "real camera" makers protest too! But it hasn't stopped them losing most of their sales to Apple, Samsung, and others of that ilk.

Maybe that's the deeper lesson in all this. No one person or company gets to define what counts as a camera or specify the "must-haves" for the design of a camera.

There's plenty of room for cameras that are too big (Canon), cameras with crappy software (Sony), cameras with poor video (Pentax), cameras with insane prices (Leica), etc. as long as each of those respective cameras appeals in some way to enough of a niche.
05-10-2017, 10:25 AM   #433
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Hum, I know this is open for debate but if one's definition of photographer is any 'individual who takes a photograph' then I will severely object.

Which, on the other hand does NOT mean you're not a photographer because you used such a lame bastard tool as a smartphone (this is heavily cynical if that wasn't obvious).
05-10-2017, 11:09 AM - 2 Likes   #434
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QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
Hum, I know this is open for debate but if one's definition of photographer is any 'individual who takes a photograph' then I will severely object.

Which, on the other hand does NOT mean you're not a photographer because you used such a lame bastard tool as a smartphone (this is heavily cynical if that wasn't obvious).
My daughter is an academically trained, experienced B&W landscape photographer who happens to earn her living on the operations side of live broadcast media. Her image capture tool of most frequent use walking Columbus Ave. from 81st - 66th and back daily, or in Central Park, or wherever she is - her camera is her iPhone because she always has it. Alternatively she uses an F3 and (at this time) a 67ll which, at 5'2", must require dedication to carry with lenses and tripod.

I of course don't have permission to post or even to hotlink them, but I defy anyone to say her images aren't photographs and she isn't a photographer.

Last edited by monochrome; 05-10-2017 at 11:22 AM.
05-10-2017, 11:46 AM   #435
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
The rapid growth of the smartphone camera shows that the vast majority of photographers (in the broadest sense of the term) do not care about sensor size. Tiny sensors (+ clever noise reduction algorithms) are good enough and getting better. It's only the upper echelons of the photography market that want big sensors in order to get the highest-possible DR, narrowest depth of field, and highest usable ISO. Yet the same physics that makes big sensors great at collecting light makes then hard to read-out the data fast enough for good video and low-lag EVFs. Physics also makes optics a lot larger and more costly for larger sensor cameras.

The larger issue is that the photography market will NEVER converge because photographer's needs and desires will never converge. Some want big cameras, some want small ones, some want high-reach, some want large aperture, some want video, some don't care about video, some want OVFs, some want EVFs, some want 20 frames-per-second, some take one frame per hour. Add in brand loyalty issues and user interface preferences, and there's room for lots of formats from lots of makers.
In an ideal world there would be room for lots of formats from lots of makers but I'm not sure that is borne out in practice either on film or on digital. The reason is pretty straightforward: the camera companies are businesses. They need to make a profit. That is best effected by creating a large market for near-identical products which turn benefits from efficient and economic mass production standardized on mass-produced components. I'd have thought this process is turbocharged in the digital era when R&D costs have increased exponentially and sensor design and fabrication are so costly that the biz has centred on just a handful of companies worldwide. So, for example, while plenty of people might greatly like M43 cameras, it might be that simply not enough of them are prepared to spend what it takes to make M43 a viable business proposition, at least in future. The cost now of maintaining any digital platform is so large that you need a lot of customers and a lot of money coming in to make it viable, far more than in the analogue era. The same could apply to almost any other format.

The tempting standardizer here of course is FF, the format that is distinctly large enough for those upper echelon photographers and which enjoys economies of scale through the vast amount of legacy material still available for it from the DSLR manufacturers. Buy a body, dip into countless millions of still perfectly good FF legacy lenses. I'd have thought there is quite a chance of a bit more standardizing on FF in coming years and fewer smaller formats. Many might not like that but, as they say, nothing personal it's just business.
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