Originally posted by pathdoc @Winder
FUD merchant.
The only point where I think you're right relates to medium format - Fuji is about to eat Pentax alive in that market. As well as everyone else.
Unless of course the GFX's low price tag turns out to be a loss leader, boyed up by its APS-C sales. In which case Fuji have about twelve months before they crash and burn, after which Pentax will kick their bleeding corpse off the edge of a cliff and walk home with the medium-format prize forever.
I think the GFX is still a generation away from being a true competitor in the MF market. Fuji is using the same sensor technology as the K-1 and 645z and they are going to suffer from the same poor CDAF that those cameras deal with in live view. The readout speed of that sensor technology is not fast enough to get good AF. The second generation will probably have PDAF on sensor and then you will see a big jump in the AF of the GFX and that will make the camera appeal to a much larger market. If Fuji puts the A7rII sensor technology in a GFX body you will see a big jump in performance.
I don't see the GFX being a loss leader. The lenses are expensive and the body costs more than the 645z. It won't be a loss leader. Like the 645z, the GFX is going to open the door to more professionals than would otherwise be possible with just an ASP-C offering and Fuji is building on that in a way the Ricoh is not, or at least not currently. The 645 platform has more potential than the GFX if Ricoh will invest in it. The 645z line is designed for a larger 645 image circle and Ricoh has technology like pixel shift that they can employ. Like the K-mount line though, Ricoh doesn't seem to have the resources to develop and update glass for the 645 line. Simply getting one premium lens developed and to market seems to be a monumental task for Ricoh. The lenses that they do produce are excellent, but one lens every 1-2 years isn't going to get it done.
---------- Post added 05-13-17 at 12:08 PM ----------
Originally posted by pathdoc And we have seen where churn-it-out-the-door "business as usual" got Nikon recently.
Nikon lost the battle several years ago and they are just now paying the price. You have to go back to the Canon 5DII launch to really see where the industry made a major change. Both Nikon and Sony has cameras that were better still image cameras than the 5DII. The Sony A900 and the D700 were both better than the 5DII in just about every way except that the 5DII had HD video. As much as I dislike it, video changed the DSLR market. Sony A900 became irrelevant and wedding shooters who wanted to expand their business offering dropped the D700 like it was radioactive to switch to the 5DII. Everyone from Zeiss to Samyang now make cine lenses for DSLRs. Nikon has matched Canon every step of the way in terms of still images, and in many cases Nikon has bested Canon in terms of still image quality, but Nikon never really embraced HD video like Canon. People have been more than willing to deal with the sub-par DR of Canon sensors.
Sony, unlike Nikon, dove head first into HD and 4K video. It was a pretty big slap in the face for Sony who was an industry leader in video to have Canon crush them by adding HD video to their DSLR. Given Sony's heritage you would have thought that Sony would have been the first to implement HD video in a FF DSLR. Until recently, Sony's marketing team has done nothing but throw as much crap on the wall as they can and see what sticks, but that seems to be changing. Video is something Sony knows a lot about and they have a long history in that arena. The blending of still and video opened the door for Sony and they will surpass Nikon in a couple of years. Sony has Nikon by the balls. Until a second sensor manufacturer enters the market who can challenge Sony's quality and technology Nikon is going to be in trouble.
Ricoh isn't in any hurry to do anything. Hopefully they will keep making high quality glass and bodies that represent a terrific value. They seem to have no desire to be an industry leader, but they seem to be in a good position to make market share from Nikon from below while Sony eats away at Nikon's top end users. The value the K-1 offers compared to a D810 is obvious. Nikon has been able to charge a premium for 5 year old technology and keep it profit margins, but those days are over. Ricoh is selling a camera that has more features for 1/2 the price, while Sony is making Nikon's most technically advanced cameras look like Commodore 64s. Yes, Nikon currently has more glass options and a better support network, but they don't have the technology.