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09-07-2017, 12:10 PM   #466
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
All tablets can be are fat smartphones. They were touted as the PC killer some 3 years ago. But that didn't happen.


But it is more than a few games on PCs, as the PC gaming market is worth over 30 Billion USD. It is a huge market. There are multimillion dollar PC gaming leagues and professional series. (The really skilled) Kids make high 5 and low 6 figure salaries playing games. And there are large viewerships to see them at work.


But you largely won't see this happen on tablets or smartphones. Those games are for casual use. As the whole platform is designed around casual use.
The app market on mobile was already the double of that in 2015.

The software worldwide market is estimated at 3500 billion. There two order of magnitude difference. The things almost everything we have today need software to work. My sister work in the aircraft industry. It is said that 1/3 of the cost of an aircraft is actually software. Sofftware as an industry is huge even if it can be argued, I agree that 3500 billions is only 5% of the wordlwide GBP.

There are millions of people just in US that earn 6 figure salary making software. Not the best of the best, normal people just with a few years of experience. The so called rock stars in software are millionnaires, sometime billionaires.


Last edited by Nicolas06; 09-07-2017 at 01:06 PM.
09-07-2017, 01:01 PM   #467
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
(...) Software as an industry is huge even if it can be argued, I agree that 3500 billions is only 5% of the worldwide PIB.

(...).
Side note: PIB (produit intérieur brut) is the French acronym for GDP (gross domestic product).
09-07-2017, 01:06 PM   #468
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Side note: PIB (produit intérieur brut) is the French acronym for GDP (gross domestic product).
Thanks fixed it !
09-08-2017, 07:32 PM   #469
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
The app market on mobile was already the double of that in 2015.

The software worldwide market is estimated at 3500 billion. There two order of magnitude difference. The things almost everything we have today need software to work. My sister work in the aircraft industry. It is said that 1/3 of the cost of an aircraft is actually software. Sofftware as an industry is huge even if it can be argued, I agree that 3500 billions is only 5% of the wordlwide GBP.

There are millions of people just in US that earn 6 figure salary making software. Not the best of the best, normal people just with a few years of experience. The so called rock stars in software are millionnaires, sometime billionaires.
Where did you get your double in 2015 and 3.5 trillion dollar overall in 2017 figures? I can only find a similar value on total IT services in 2017 Gartner Says Global IT Spending to Reach $3.5 Trillion in 2017

Yet, even if we agree to your astronomic figures, you're looking at the app market in total and comparing it against only the desktop gaming market. If you throw in all PC software then the numbers rise sharply. The point I'm making is the PC software side is far more significant than you're making it out to be and thus why companies still cater to PC software development.

Either way, yes, software is valuable and important. But we all knew that.. at least I know I did.. I'm a software developer and I'm in the US.

Salary in the US is determined largely by location (as cost of living varies dramatically), education/experience, and demand for your particular development skills (what languages you know, how well you know them, and how well that translates to your position). I suspect there is probably more money to be made in being a DBA or Sys Admin in most IT shops in corporate America.

100,000 USD is not that much for the west coast (where cost of living is extreme).. but 100,000 is senior level pay in the central part of the US. It differs a lot.

09-09-2017, 01:45 AM   #470
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
Where did you get your double in 2015 and 3.5 trillion dollar overall in 2017 figures? I can only find a similar value on total IT services in 2017 Gartner Says Global IT Spending to Reach $3.5 Trillion in 2017

Yet, even if we agree to your astronomic figures, you're looking at the app market in total and comparing it against only the desktop gaming market. If you throw in all PC software then the numbers rise sharply. The point I'm making is the PC software side is far more significant than you're making it out to be and thus why companies still cater to PC software development.

Either way, yes, software is valuable and important. But we all knew that.. at least I know I did.. I'm a software developer and I'm in the US.

Salary in the US is determined largely by location (as cost of living varies dramatically), education/experience, and demand for your particular development skills (what languages you know, how well you know them, and how well that translates to your position). I suspect there is probably more money to be made in being a DBA or Sys Admin in most IT shops in corporate America.

100,000 USD is not that much for the west coast (where cost of living is extreme).. but 100,000 is senior level pay in the central part of the US. It differs a lot.
The goal is not to go on war with you on how much or few the general public spend on app on PCs. The general idea was that what the general public use their PC or smartphone for and how much for the various software bundled in or brought after the fact is small compared to the IT spendings overall and all other stuff related to software. We don't consider that an aircraft is related to software but it is. 1/3 of the cost is that. And there many other things like that. Each domain in the world now require many specialized app that typically cost billions to develop over the years.

Just a tiny drop in the sea: I work in a company that manage the reservation system for air transportation. This is just a tiny specialized market. But already alone we make several billions a year and we "only" have 40% of that market. And it is just air transportation: computing price, managing inventory. There hundred of domains like that. My sister make software for aircrafts as you may have guessed, like the auto pilot. I have friend that make software to manage pattents porfolio some other make the administration software for social security in France... The list is almost endless.

The software may happen to run on a desktop computer, or on a server or on a embedded device like a rocket or a car or whatever. This isn't really important. This is just that the general public don't pay directly for these kind of application and usages and also the professionnals to maintain them. Few people as part of the general public pay their DBA or a maintenance contract with Oracle in case of data loss or bug. Few people as part of general public pay software developpers to create new SQL procedure for that database. Like people don't invest billions to improve the automation or management of their administration. Many people think that as a software engineer, "the guy working with computers", I may repear computers. They have no idea how theses things are built and how they operate.

Most companies on the contrary do that, they invest heavily into software. This kind of market as employment for software engineers is much much bigger, yes. It is less visible but if tomorrow none of the app in the app stores or non of the games on PC where stopping working that would be middly annoying. If the whole set of software used worldwide was to stop working, we would face the greatest depression in the history of man. 1929 being piece of cake by comparison. Even the second world war. People would die, have no food, all vehicule would stop working, nobody would be paid anymore, Almost no single device we know of would still be working and the one low tech enough that still would could not be produced anymore in factories. Any administration would stop working too hospitals, governments, any big company.

Last edited by Nicolas06; 09-09-2017 at 01:58 AM.
09-09-2017, 02:17 AM   #471
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
It's not the first - Lytro's first camera was launched in 2012 (of course, the L16 is using a different approach - but so would a "smartphone integrated" version).
The K10D is definitely limited by its old CCD sensor, while the Galaxy S7 is using every hardware and software trick available. Coincidentally, there's about 10 years between them, and the S7 cannot "do everything better" than the K10D.

But if "makes phone calls" is how you plan to prove that a future smartphone would be a better camera than a K-1, there's no point in continuing this discussion.
I guess that depend of your notion of everything because it actually mean "everything that matter" and that depend of people. The thing is the investment in phones every year is order of magnitude higher than the investment in cameras. Apple alone has like more people working on their camera module than Pentax has on K-mount.

All that investments cannot fix the form factor, true, but it allow to go arround the limitations. Mostly phone have more and more software to compensate. When you think of it thi is excactly what our eyes are. The sensor itself is small, there a single optic focal length and yet we manage a lot. Because our brain much more advanced.

We already see the simulation of deph of field even if not perfect in smartphones, they are also better at multiple exposure for HDR while keeping the photo sharp. Like our eyes they may acquire the scene over time, gather the details by scan and reconstruct the image. Meaning the device may be moving, the subject may be moving, the light may be low, it doesn't prevent us from getting a detailled mental image of what is happenning.

I guess that smartphones will go more and more into that direction. Sure the camera company that would manage to get the licence to operate this kind of software would be able to integrate that in their camera but the old one by that future time like a K1 or K10 will not get that. And getting the licence may not be for granted. I always wondered why for example Pentax would not get the Nikon AF sensor and the Nikon AF algorithms and just integrate it in their body. Or the one from Canon, or Sony or Samsung ... The things is that it may not be for sales or the prices to pay too high... That may be the same for the investments made by google, samsung or apple for their improvements on their cameras.

There likely also 10 other way we don't think of that will be tried. The L16 is one of them. The thing is the R&D in smartphone is several order of magnitude greater so they are bound to innovate more ... and like camera can adopt the technology present in smartphones, smartphones also benefit from the R&D spent for dedicated camera too.
09-09-2017, 02:48 AM   #472
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You're trying to redefine "everything" as "just a few things, in non-challenging situations". You can't do that.
09-09-2017, 02:53 AM   #473
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I don't think the question is "Are smart phones here to stay?" or even "Will cameras in smart phones get better over time?' The answer to both questions is yes. The question is more how ILC makers sell cameras in a world where everyone has at least a mediocre camera in their smart phone.

On this thread we have seen comments that they need to improve RAW processing tools for tablets. Some have said it is just generally hopeless. Some have said that everything needs to go mirrorless.

I do think that probably the answer is in brands emphasizing the things that smart phone cameras can't do and the things that ILCs can do. People know that their smart phone cameras are weak in certain areas. They may not carry an ILC all of the time, but if they want decent photos of their kid's soccer game, they will need more than a Galaxy smart phone. But clearly none of us knows what the future does hold -- if we did, we could make an awful lot of money.

09-09-2017, 07:13 AM   #474
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I don't think the question is "Are smart phones here to stay?" or even "Will cameras in smart phones get better over time?' The answer to both questions is yes. The question is more how ILC makers sell cameras in a world where everyone has at least a mediocre camera in their smart phone.

On this thread we have seen comments that they need to improve RAW processing tools for tablets. Some have said it is just generally hopeless. Some have said that everything needs to go mirrorless.

I do think that probably the answer is in brands emphasizing the things that smart phone cameras can't do and the things that ILCs can do. People know that their smart phone cameras are weak in certain areas. They may not carry an ILC all of the time, but if they want decent photos of their kid's soccer game, they will need more than a Galaxy smart phone. But clearly none of us knows what the future does hold -- if we did, we could make an awful lot of money.
Fuji just released a system whereby the camera processes the RAW to JPEG while tethered to the computer. This is to deal with the "lite" laptops out there, dominant in Asia especially, where the vast majority of homes don't have a desktop PC.

The camera is now an app.

Fujifilm X Raw Studio to Offload RAW Conversion from CPU to Camera

We are reaching the limits of camera phone capabilities. They are P&S at best, with staggeringly good post-processing, connectivity and sharing comparatively.

The smartphone cameras upended the entire photography industry not by simply replacing the P&S segment, but by inverting the consumer process. They started with the sharing and processing control, making that #1 in the experience.

ILCs and Japan Inc.have (still) not "got" this message. The ILC is locked into an in-camera experience with so many steps and so much friction towards the processing and sharing that their sales are staggering from being so out-of-step with the consuming public's new expectations. Consumers want to share their photo within moments of capture. ILCs have no choice but to go there to stay relevant in sales.

And dominant is the rise of mobile OS as (by far...it's not even close) the preferred means by which people take, process, and share photos. Being outside that norm is seriously harming the ILC market. The PC/Mac as the main processing portal is now effectively dead save for a small elite cadre of pros and prosumers who have nowhere near enough numbers to carry the market in sustainable volumes. For every 1prosumer using Lightroom you need 5 soccer moms who want a non-PC/Mac structure.

But ILCs can...and for the foreseeable future with the laws of optical physic being, well, laws...best small sensor smartphones at image capture in all circumstances, and especially with zoom and high IQ and a host of other advantages.

So ILCs will suffer in the market until they overcome their processing, connectivity, and sharing disadvantages. Japan Inc.has to get out of the mindset that consumers will dutifully process their images on a 3" back-of-the-camera screen, or march and SD card over to the PC, edit there as well, and upload to a sharing portal. Too many steps. Too much friction, even for JPG. Fuji is getting there, but this needs to be done wirelessly, swiftly, and on mobile OS.

They really don't have a choice.

---------- Post added 09-09-17 at 11:17 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
All tablets can be are fat smartphones. They were touted as the PC killer some 3 years ago. But that didn't happen.


But it is more than a few games on PCs, as the PC gaming market is worth over 30 Billion USD. It is a huge market. There are multimillion dollar PC gaming leagues and professional series. (The really skilled) Kids make high 5 and low 6 figure salaries playing games. And there are large viewerships to see them at work.


But you largely won't see this happen on tablets or smartphones. Those games are for casual use. As the whole platform is designed around casual use.
The PC gaming market is about 4% the size of the mobile OS market. In comparative terms, it is tiny. In fact, it's one the only things that has helped the industry through what is a prolonged slump, especially for high-end CPU requirements.

Also, a number of the games are moving to mobile OS.
09-09-2017, 08:23 AM   #475
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QuoteOriginally posted by Aristophanes Quote
The PC gaming market is about 4% the size of the mobile OS market. In comparative terms, it is tiny. In fact, it's one the only things that has helped the industry through what is a prolonged slump, especially for high-end CPU requirements.

Also, a number of the games are moving to mobile OS.
My last post on this since it seems to be heading towards vague argument land...

4%? No.. not sure where you pulled that number out of. I found data now on the whole market. The mobile gaming market is indeed larger (about 54% larger) than the PC gaming market. Yet they're both multi-billion dollar industries. I wouldn't call the PC gaming market tiny by any stretch of the imagination. Most of the surge in mobile has been in Asia (esp China) where micro-transactional games seem to have really taken off. But these are largely casual games... think Candy Crush or Boom Beach.

What is interesting is the PC gaming market shrunk slightly, Console market grew slightly, and the mobile market grew rapidly. Meaning - the entire gaming market grew. No one was/is forced out. PC gaming is, essentially, holding its own while the rest of the market is growing. I don't expect mobile to continue such high gains over time, but it is growing because it hasn't met saturation yet.

I think we'll continue to see a similar trend in the camera market. Device types will shrink (in number) in some places (think DSLR) while others will grow (Mirrorless ILC) but the market will accommodate both.

But these are two largely different markets. Kids might get a 200-300-400 dollar phone and spend 30-50 dollars on microtransactions but not own a gaming PC. A serious photographer is going to spend 4x that or more alone on a camera body. Meaning, they have a lot more money to spend on their craft or hobby. So the photographer will be looking for a different set of qualities to their processing environment, both in features and performance. For instance no one is cataloging directly onto a smartphone. It doesn't happen. If you're not uploading to cloud then you're doing that on a PC with either large desktop HDD or external arrays. Smartphones were never designed for this task. So the software designed for mobile will be different than PC.

Plus smartphones, as advanced as they are getting, will never reach the level of performance that even a laptop can have. Much less a desktop. Because mobile devices have a fundamentally different goal than a PC. They have a smaller form factor and thus are designed around an entirely different computing architecture (heat and power draw are issues).

In any case.. this has jumped way off the rails. So here are the gaming market figures:

09-09-2017, 11:31 AM   #476
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For what it's worth, most of Ned Bunnell's (former president of Pentax USA) Instagram photos are taken with either a RIcoh GRD II or iPhone (and not even a new one, an SE!) processed with Snapseed.

The reality is that most people, including the people on this forum, spend their days looking at photos that are 2 megapickles or less on devices whose screens are often smaller than 6". And for a lot of people and a lot of circumstances, a phone is more than adequate for the job. Conversely, a 36 megapickel full frame camera is great for large prints, but what % of the population views or values large prints anymore?
09-09-2017, 01:20 PM   #477
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
For what it's worth, most of Ned Bunnell's (former president of Pentax USA) Instagram photos are taken with either a RIcoh GRD II or iPhone (and not even a new one, an SE!) processed with Snapseed.

The reality is that most people, including the people on this forum, spend their days looking at photos that are 2 megapickles or less on devices whose screens are often smaller than 6". And for a lot of people and a lot of circumstances, a phone is more than adequate for the job. Conversely, a 36 megapickel full frame camera is great for large prints, but what % of the population views or values large prints anymore?
Well the 45MP D850 was released two days ago, has out sold preorder stock and now Nikon is rationing copies until they can produce more. It costs 3300 USD. They apparently ran out of stock of some F mount lenses too in the rush. Demand is there.

Ned takes lots of casual, vacationy snapshots that I think is right up the alley of a GRD or iPhone and snapseed. What you see is the same as the smartphone gaming market... it is increasing through lots of casual users. There might be 20 million (random number for the sake of making a point) enthusiast and professional photographers but there are likely 2 billion potential casual photographers with a smartphone.

I don't think that means the ILC market dwindles, it just means there are more users than ever making use of a camera. The market itself grew.. not just a trend towards mobile (or that means the others inherently have and will shrink) but that the ILC market stays mostly while the camera market as a whole grows through the mobile market picking up more casuals.

Why? I think because, these platforms are geared towards different goals. So they don't step on each others toes like point and shoots and smartphones did.
09-09-2017, 02:12 PM - 1 Like   #478
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
Well the 45MP D850 was released two days ago, has out sold preorder stock and now Nikon is rationing copies until they can produce more. It costs 3300 USD. They apparently ran out of stock of some F mount lenses too in the rush. Demand is there.

Ned takes lots of casual, vacationy snapshots that I think is right up the alley of a GRD or iPhone and snapseed. What you see is the same as the smartphone gaming market... it is increasing through lots of casual users. There might be 20 million (random number for the sake of making a point) enthusiast and professional photographers but there are likely 2 billion potential casual photographers with a smartphone.

I don't think that means the ILC market dwindles, it just means there are more users than ever making use of a camera. The market itself grew.. not just a trend towards mobile (or that means the others inherently have and will shrink) but that the ILC market stays mostly while the camera market as a whole grows through the mobile market picking up more casuals.

Why? I think because, these platforms are geared towards different goals. So they don't step on each others toes like point and shoots and smartphones did.
But Nikon is selling D850s from a vastly reduced customer base. They've shut down assembly lines over the last 4 years.

Demand is falling. Substantially. The higher the price point, the less consumers. Simple economics.

Ten years ago there was an estimated 40 million ILC consumers. Now estimates are well below 20 million. Yet aggregate population has grown as has wealth.

On top of that, the ILC manufacturers lost their P&S revenue streams, and their "buy up" consumers.

Worsening this is the stark move away from desktop and laptop PC/Mac towards an all-mobile viewing medium.

Both the producing end and the consuming end are no longer using CPUs like they did even 5 years ago amidst a huge retrenchment towards mobile.

No camera maker can count on their target consumer possessing a desktop or laptop for CPU processing. They couldn't in large parts of Asia and the developing world, and they cannot now.
09-09-2017, 10:20 PM   #479
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Yet marketshare is often a very bad indicator.

Whatever the marketshare, as long as the brand makes adequate money in it's intended market.
The point is not to serve a DSLR to everyone in this world babies included.
The point is to make money or at least not lose money. Many here tends to forget that.
09-09-2017, 11:43 PM   #480
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And don't forget suppliers risks and rarifying ressources required for maintaining those enormous marketshares.
I understand iPhone 8 might be at crossroads in those respects.
We'll soon find out why even goldenboys seem to eventually get it.
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