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10-03-2017, 12:48 PM   #541
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I agree that for probably 80 percent of the population, smart phone cameras are probably fine. I have said that the whole time. My point is merely that for people for whom photography is more than just a passing thought, even if the quality of smart phone cameras improves, there will still be a group of people who want something "better."

To me, better can be better ergonomics for a professional or enthusiast who wants to shoot for several hours comfortably, it can be better battery life, it can be better dynamic range/high iso capability, it can be better with regard to ease with which you can use a tripod and alter settings, or just simply the fact that you can get better glass for it. Phones are good enough for most people, but I still think there will be plenty of place for ILCs for a long time to come.
But also as they will improve, the % of population satisfied with their quality will increase.

For example, if you could get say m4/3 + kitlens like a 12-32 with your smartphone... Would you really be as willing to take the K1 with you?

Maybe you yes. But instead of 80% people satisfied, you would end up with 95% satisfied... And soon later, the market for dedicated phone would be so small that no progress would ever be made anymore...

it is a bit like rangefinders. They have superior optical viewfinder for some situation but so expensive and typically MF that you end up with a DSLR instead... As a consequence, Leica doesn't sell much and doesn't have the most innovative bodies out there in term of technology. And a good share of what they have only possible because there competitor with DSLR and all with the same sensors.

The day 99% of the population is ok with a smartphone, the dedicated pro gear may remains only from Leica, Hazzelblad and other like phaseone with the associated prices...


Last edited by Nicolas06; 10-03-2017 at 12:54 PM.
10-03-2017, 12:59 PM   #542
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
But also as they will improve, the % of population satisfied with their quality will increase.

For example, if you could get say m4/3 + kitlens like a 12-32 with your smartphone... Would you really be as willing to take the K1 with you?

Maybe you yes. But instead of 80% people satisfied, you would end up with 95% satisfied... And soon later, the market for dedicated phone would be so small that no progress would ever be made anymore...

it is a bit like rangefinders. They have superior optical viewfinder for some situation but so expensive and typically MF that you end up with a DSLR instead... As a consequence, Leica doesn't sell much and doesn't have the most innovative bodies out there in term of technology. And a good share of what they have only possible because there competitor with DSLR and all with the same sensors.

The day 99% of the population is ok with a smartphone, the dedicated pro gear may remains only from Leica, Hazzelblad and other like phaseone with the associated prices...
We'll see. My guess is that percentages probably stay where they are currently for awhile. The big question is more how things break down between mirrorless and SLRs for the ILC market. It is clear that mirrorless are growing as a percentage of the ILC market, but both will be around for quite awhile.

Physics being what it is, we are probably getting close to the best that the tiny sensors in cell phones can be. They do well in good light, but even a little twilight and things start to fall apart.
10-03-2017, 01:15 PM   #543
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Many people aren't into photography. They want some pics to remember family events and their kids when they were young, but I wonder if most of those images will even survive since they aren't printed out and archived anywhere. If all your snaps are on your smart phone, what happens when it gives up the ghost for whatever reason?

I don't think we are really arguing. I just think that ten years ago cell phone cameras were bad enough that anyone who wanted to document their own lives in any respect had to get some kind of an additional camera to take pics. Now, the only folks who are buying additional cameras are people who are "into" photography or have figured out that there is some application at which their cell phone camera is bad enough that they will replace it for that instance with an ILC.
I certainly hope we’re not arguing! I suspect lots of folks still buy cameras on a whim or for special occasions - big trip abroad, wedding, anniversary, the children, etc, etc. I doubt those many many Canon M3s and M6s out there are being bought by camera geeks Anyway, I don’t think the situation is as dire as is often painted. There are still plenty of inbetweeners.

Many smartphone snaps live on in iCloud, FB, Insta, etc even if lost from the phone.
10-03-2017, 04:13 PM   #544
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
We'll see. My guess is that percentages probably stay where they are currently for awhile. The big question is more how things break down between mirrorless and SLRs for the ILC market. It is clear that mirrorless are growing as a percentage of the ILC market, but both will be around for quite awhile.

Physics being what it is, we are probably getting close to the best that the tiny sensors in cell phones can be. They do well in good light, but even a little twilight and things start to fall apart.
but that's where advances in Technology takes over. Physics matters, but there will be advances in software and hardware, where noise will be very minimal at best for smaller sensors in those conditions.

10-03-2017, 04:58 PM   #545
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QuoteOriginally posted by Fcsnt54 Quote
there will be advances in software and hardware, where noise will be very minimal at best for smaller sensors in those conditions.
Local refrigeration of the sensor?
10-03-2017, 05:32 PM - 1 Like   #546
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
DSLR makers really have no chance to win back smartphone customers because these camera users are so very different from the dedicated photographer (enthusiast, artist, or pro).
Some enthusiasts have gotten a taste of the smaller ILC systems and have decided the trade offs in size and weight weren't worth the marginal gains of a slightly larger DSLR (FF and APS) sensor; that they could get what they wanted out of less. Still gotta sell what people want... yes even enthusiasts with GAS.

If we look at what Pentax has been doing: K-1 FF is released but promised new FF lenses are slow to arrive with little indication of what's happening. Good products like the GR have been left to die (as if it were the Nikon 1) while everybody else releases newer and better versions. Releasing a toy mirrorless ILC while Fuji, Sony, Olympus, and folks got entrenched in that market. There's no reason why Pentax couldn't have been in a better position than Fuji in the MILC market right now. The 645 often being cited as a nice ace in the sleeve but what's happening with it now? What if Sony decides they want to play with P1 and the others?

Pentax has increasingly started to look like a company in stasis while all of the competition are iterating through new and improved products and I think that's reflected in the financial results. Some people act like it doesn't matter but decreasing sales and revenue feeds into a vicious feedback loop which if not arrested quickly can lead to death of the patient.
10-03-2017, 06:30 PM   #547
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The thing is, most everyone with a mobile phone now has ready access to a half decent camera which is always on hand and perfectly capable to shoot selfies to post to a plethora of social media sites. That's what the vast majority of those devices are used for.

What makes the graph interesting is that it shows how huge that market is, compared to the market for a device that only takes photos and or videos. Some phones now have three separate cameras: One on the front for selfies and two on the rear for other photos. What those two lenses does is that the one records colour and the other monochrome only, but with far more sensitivity in low light situations and an onboard algorithm combines that data to create one photo with greater dynamic range. Where this is going is to please a (phone user) market where users want to take photos that do not necessarily have any artistic merit, but is well lit and does not require any post processing.

Looking at that graph, it's clear why the compact market is dying if it's not already complete dead and buried. I would wager though that the cellphone market neither erodes nor enlarges the DSLR market. The reason I say so is that there is a (small) select group of people who will think about buying a DSLR or other dedicated image system and whether they have a good mobile phone or not. They either make the leap to a DSLR or a mirrorless camera or they don't. For some, owning a good phone camera may be the starting point - wanting better more "professional" photos. For others, the phone may be enough.

Ultimately, what the graph shows is that there are a lot of people in the world that can take a photo with a device they have on hand nearly every waking hour. And that device is a phone.
10-03-2017, 07:02 PM   #548
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QuoteOriginally posted by MarkJerling Quote
Looking at that graph, it's clear why the compact market is dying if it's not already complete dead and buried. I would wager though that the cellphone market neither erodes nor enlarges the DSLR market. The reason I say so is that there is a (small) select group of people who will think about buying a DSLR or other dedicated image system and whether they have a good mobile phone or not. They either make the leap to a DSLR or a mirrorless camera or they don't. For some, owning a good phone camera may be the starting point - wanting better more "professional" photos. For others, the phone may be enough.
A large volume of those DSLR owners over the last 5-10 years have been soccer moms and dads that bought an entry level Canon or Nikon DSLR with one or two kit zooms. They stand on the sidelines and shoot in P-mode, Green mode, or if they're lucky and someone that knows a little bit about camera, the little Running Human mode.

If the phone evolves to incorporate a decent zoom function for youth sports, that high volume end of the DSLR market will evaporate overnight.

10-03-2017, 07:15 PM   #549
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QuoteOriginally posted by lytrytyr Quote
Local refrigeration of the sensor?


No, no need to refrigerate. Look at what some of the recent cameras have done. In all reality though, what do a good chunk of people do with their photos. Take them, post some, leave a good chunk on their phone or storage, never look at them again?


10-03-2017, 08:38 PM   #550
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
A large volume of those DSLR owners over the last 5-10 years have been soccer moms and dads that bought an entry level Canon or Nikon DSLR with one or two kit zooms. They stand on the sidelines and shoot in P-mode, Green mode, or if they're lucky and someone that knows a little bit about camera, the little Running Human mode.

If the phone evolves to incorporate a decent zoom function for youth sports, that high volume end of the DSLR market will evaporate overnight.
Luckily, fitting a decent zoom into a 6mm thick phone is not that easy!
10-03-2017, 08:48 PM - 1 Like   #551
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
Do you have any data to support these assertions?
CIPA reports from 1999 to August 2017.


In the history of camera manufacturing there is an inverse relationship between size of the market and average cost per unit. In 1999 the average value per unit for digital still cameras was 44,790 Yen (slightly lower in North America, above this average everywhere else) for just over 5 million units. The digital camera market peaked in 2010 with an average value of 13,529 Yen for over 121 million units. The ILC market peaked in 2012 with an average value of 37,365 Yen for 20 million ILC's and by 2016 the average value was 44,760 Yen for less than 12 million units. For YTD August 2017, the average value for ILC's is 49,022 Yen. The entry level market is increasingly being overwhelmed by higher value products, but the total number of cameras being purchased has been dropping. 2017 results indicate that 2016 was rock bottom, which also indicates that what market there is, is driven by repeat purchases of higher value products than what was purchased previously. I can't think of any way to spin that into enough new entrants to the camera market to make a noticeable difference to sales results and it looks like that portion of the business has been increasingly more insignificant since the ILC peak in 2012. After all, ILC shipments dropped 15% in 2013 and now sit at 60% of what they were in 2012.



The camera market in emerging economies (what CIPA started out calling Other and eventually split into Asia less Japan and the other Others, consisting of a variety of smaller camera markets) has only lagged Europe and North America by a year or so and represented a growing percentage of the global total from 5% in 1999 to 28.2% in 2009. That percentage has gone up and down since 2009 and after dropping to 26.8% in 2015 it has picked up to 28.7% in 2016 and 30.2% YTD. With the total digital camera market down 80% since 2010, having Asia and Others doing slightly less worse doesn't provide many opportunities for growth.


Standalone cameras are no longer a mass market product in any way, shape or form; any analysis based on selling cameras like jeans or cell phones, or even relative to the camera market of 5-10 years ago, isn't going to be particularly enlightening.
10-04-2017, 02:59 AM   #552
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
A large volume of those DSLR owners over the last 5-10 years have been soccer moms and dads that bought an entry level Canon or Nikon DSLR with one or two kit zooms. They stand on the sidelines and shoot in P-mode, Green mode, or if they're lucky and someone that knows a little bit about camera, the little Running Human mode.

If the phone evolves to incorporate a decent zoom function for youth sports, that high volume end of the DSLR market will evaporate overnight.
Seems a little unlikely, not?

You need probably a minimum of 200mm zoom to take kids sports. Even with a tiny sensor, that size lens is going to make your phone unpocketable. Most of what I have seen involves "digital" zoom, which is basically aggressive cropping and that degrades the image by reducing the portion of an already tiny sensor used to capture an image.

Maybe at some point that will happen, but it seems a bit far off at present.

---------- Post added 10-04-17 at 06:07 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Fcsnt54 Quote
but that's where advances in Technology takes over. Physics matters, but there will be advances in software and hardware, where noise will be very minimal at best for smaller sensors in those conditions.
I suppose. I do think it is interesting where people separate technology and physics. We have reached close to the max for single sensors in terms of quantum efficiency. That is why phones are adding extra cameras. Probably the bigger point is to figure out software solutions for things like noise and apply digital graduated neutral density filters to images to produce better dynamic range. But all of that has a tendency to look "processed." Skin is smoothed out to the point where no detail is left, shadows are just black and there are artifacts all over the place from weird sharpening. This is what I see on Facebook when I see what cell phone images look like. Granted, not every one has the newest iphone or Galaxy -- in fact most don't (they cost as much as an SLR), but I think cell phone images leave more to be desired than most people admit.

And don't get me started on trying to process RAW files from a cell phone. Suddenly you see how bad the original images really are without all the lens corrections, etc that are added by the cell phone jpeg engine...
10-04-2017, 03:56 AM   #553
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QuoteOriginally posted by johnmflores Quote
If the phone evolves to incorporate a decent zoom function for youth sports, that high volume end of the DSLR market will evaporate overnight.
If. An if that would be at best extremely difficult to accomplish, to the point I wonder why are you even mentioning this (im)possibility.
Even digital zoom can't help much.

In the meanwhile, in August cameras grew a little:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201708_e.pdf
10-04-2017, 05:35 AM   #554
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QuoteOriginally posted by wjjstu Quote
Some enthusiasts have gotten a taste of the smaller ILC systems and have decided the trade offs in size and weight weren't worth the marginal gains of a slightly larger DSLR (FF and APS) sensor; that they could get what they wanted out of less. Still gotta sell what people want... yes even enthusiasts with GAS.

If we look at what Pentax has been doing: K-1 FF is released but promised new FF lenses are slow to arrive with little indication of what's happening. Good products like the GR have been left to die (as if it were the Nikon 1) while everybody else releases newer and better versions. Releasing a toy mirrorless ILC while Fuji, Sony, Olympus, and folks got entrenched in that market. There's no reason why Pentax couldn't have been in a better position than Fuji in the MILC market right now. The 645 often being cited as a nice ace in the sleeve but what's happening with it now? What if Sony decides they want to play with P1 and the others?

Pentax has increasingly started to look like a company in stasis while all of the competition are iterating through new and improved products and I think that's reflected in the financial results. Some people act like it doesn't matter but decreasing sales and revenue feeds into a vicious feedback loop which if not arrested quickly can lead to death of the patient.
Yes, different people want different sensor sizes for ILCs.

But no camera company covers all the formats. Fuji have failed to offer full-frame or M4/3. Canon, Nikon, Sony don't have a M4/3 or medium format system. It's just too expensive to create a new line of bodies with a new line of lenses.

Just because Pentax isn't trying to be all things to all photographers doesn't mean it's in stasis.
10-04-2017, 06:15 AM   #555
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QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
CIPA reports from 1999 to August 2017.


In the history of camera manufacturing there is an inverse relationship between size of the market and average cost per unit. In 1999 the average value per unit for digital still cameras was 44,790 Yen (slightly lower in North America, above this average everywhere else) for just over 5 million units. The digital camera market peaked in 2010 with an average value of 13,529 Yen for over 121 million units. The ILC market peaked in 2012 with an average value of 37,365 Yen for 20 million ILC's and by 2016 the average value was 44,760 Yen for less than 12 million units. For YTD August 2017, the average value for ILC's is 49,022 Yen. The entry level market is increasingly being overwhelmed by higher value products, but the total number of cameras being purchased has been dropping. 2017 results indicate that 2016 was rock bottom, which also indicates that what market there is, is driven by repeat purchases of higher value products than what was purchased previously. I can't think of any way to spin that into enough new entrants to the camera market to make a noticeable difference to sales results and it looks like that portion of the business has been increasingly more insignificant since the ILC peak in 2012. After all, ILC shipments dropped 15% in 2013 and now sit at 60% of what they were in 2012.



The camera market in emerging economies (what CIPA started out calling Other and eventually split into Asia less Japan and the other Others, consisting of a variety of smaller camera markets) has only lagged Europe and North America by a year or so and represented a growing percentage of the global total from 5% in 1999 to 28.2% in 2009. That percentage has gone up and down since 2009 and after dropping to 26.8% in 2015 it has picked up to 28.7% in 2016 and 30.2% YTD. With the total digital camera market down 80% since 2010, having Asia and Others doing slightly less worse doesn't provide many opportunities for growth.


Standalone cameras are no longer a mass market product in any way, shape or form; any analysis based on selling cameras like jeans or cell phones, or even relative to the camera market of 5-10 years ago, isn't going to be particularly enlightening.
Thanks for the detailed response. I agree with a lot of what you say but I'm still uncertain of the size of the new entrants to the camera market. Yes, volume of entry-level product is certainly down but are new entrants moving up to mid-level products? Are they skipping the entry level Canikon and going straight to a smaller but higher-priced mirrorless? And if so, how many are there? It would be interesting to see more data on this.


I do think that new entrants are critical to the continued viability of the market otherwise the market will eventually age out and manufacturers will continue to make up for lost volume with higher prices. What to sell to them and how is the million dollar question.

---------- Post added 10-04-17 at 08:19 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Seems a little unlikely, not?

You need probably a minimum of 200mm zoom to take kids sports. Even with a tiny sensor, that size lens is going to make your phone unpocketable. Most of what I have seen involves "digital" zoom, which is basically aggressive cropping and that degrades the image by reducing the portion of an already tiny sensor used to capture an image.

Maybe at some point that will happen, but it seems a bit far off at present.

---------- Post added 10-04-17 at 06:07 AM ----------



I suppose. I do think it is interesting where people separate technology and physics. We have reached close to the max for single sensors in terms of quantum efficiency. That is why phones are adding extra cameras. Probably the bigger point is to figure out software solutions for things like noise and apply digital graduated neutral density filters to images to produce better dynamic range. But all of that has a tendency to look "processed." Skin is smoothed out to the point where no detail is left, shadows are just black and there are artifacts all over the place from weird sharpening. This is what I see on Facebook when I see what cell phone images look like. Granted, not every one has the newest iphone or Galaxy -- in fact most don't (they cost as much as an SLR), but I think cell phone images leave more to be desired than most people admit.

And don't get me started on trying to process RAW files from a cell phone. Suddenly you see how bad the original images really are without all the lens corrections, etc that are added by the cell phone jpeg engine...
QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
If. An if that would be at best extremely difficult to accomplish, to the point I wonder why are you even mentioning this (im)possibility.
Even digital zoom can't help much.

In the meanwhile, in August cameras grew a little:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201708_e.pdf
Ten years ago nobody would have predicted that the phone would have decimated the camera industry. And ten years ago it would have been difficult to believe the image quality of the latest phones.With that recent history, I'm open to the next ten years bringing progress that I can't imagine now. The Light L16, for example, has a 150mm lens in its array. They've fit it in there with folded optics. The camera looks to be twice as thick as a phone though but who knows what the next 10 years will bring?
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