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08-15-2017, 04:17 AM   #256
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
If you take photos with a full frame DSLR and ILC, you are most likely someone who don't mind much about camera size and who is passionate enough by photography to have upgraded from an apsc DSLR.

That the way I see pretty much all people around me over the last decade.
All the people I know that brought a camera recently, most are interrested to get better photos. Often for something important in their life like a baby or a nice trip in a far away place. Some even took a whole sabatical year to visite the whole world, while some other just did it for 3 month. The budget for this kind of stuff can actually be huge, in the €10K-30K range.

Almost none go past the kit lens. Only one is caring of what an FF body can do and that he learned in forums mostly and he didn't got one, his wife would have killed him to spend money that stupidly when they got a second baby. So basically he has an APSC Canon body and borrow lenses from time to time on the photography group of the company.

Half of the people brought a mirrorless body advertised to be as good as a DSLR but much smaller. All except one or two got the entry level body. None got an FF. One borrow lenses from me on the occasion, another one got some cheapo MF lens when he need a wide apperture and one was thinking to buy maybe a basic 50mm prime. The most advanced guy except me got a Nikon APSC + 18-35 from sigma and a 70-300 from forum advices. He then realized this was crap advice as it is more important to have a fast apperture un the 35-85mm range than in the 18-35mm range.

08-15-2017, 04:24 AM   #257
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QuoteOriginally posted by reh321 Quote
One of my main interests is that people view me as "normal", i.e., not as a photographer, because my style of photography depends on my subjects not reacting to my presence. I want images to look as they would if I were not present - and I believe my blue K-30 contributes to my amateur credentials.

---------- Post added 08-10-17 at 10:31 PM ----------

I guess that I am normal, then, that I wandered in here by accident. The most I've ever spent for a camera kit was the $700 Canon EOS Elan kit I purchased in 1995. If a body lasts me less than 4 years, I consider it to have been a "failure" {my K-30 is now 27 months old, if it comes down with the aperture ailment in the next 21 months, that alone would not count as a "failure", because I already have the manual lenses I would need to "operate on 7 cylinders" until it does reach the four year mark.
You are not really fitting the overall expectation toward gear of people in this forum. You want entry level camera and lenses. Still you are interrested in gear if only cheap gear, that why you are there.

But ou of 7 billions people how many are in photography forum writing post? 0.0001% ?
08-15-2017, 04:32 AM   #258
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nicolas06 Quote
All the people I know that brought a camera recently, most are interrested to get better photos. Often for something important in their life like a baby or a nice trip in a far away place. Some even took a whole sabatical year to visite the whole world, while some other just did it for 3 month. The budget for this kind of stuff can actually be huge, in the €10K-30K range. Almost none go past the kit lens. Only one is caring of what an FF body can do and that he learned in forums mostly and he didn't got one, his wife would have killed him to spend money that stupidly when they got a second baby. So basically he has an APSC Canon body and borrow lenses from time to time on the photography group of the company. Half of the people brought a mirrorless body advertised to be as good as a DSLR but much smaller. All except one or two got the entry level body. None got an FF. One borrow lenses from me on the occasion, another one got some cheapo MF lens when he need a wide apperture and one was thinking to buy maybe a basic 50mm prime. The most advanced guy except me got a Nikon APSC + 18-35 from sigma and a 70-300 from forum advices. He then realized this was crap advice as it is more important to have a fast apperture un the 35-85mm range than in the 18-35mm range.
Yes, I fully agree, some people buy this, other people buy that, it depends. They is no single rule, such as FF is not worth it etc.. :-) Some people buy this and other people buy that, depending on what they want to do and how much their want to pay.
08-15-2017, 05:05 AM   #259
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As Kunzite said, people buy ILCs for different reasons. Most want something that is better than their smart phone. Once again, that can mean different things. Maybe they want something that can shoot longer lenses than their smart phone or maybe shoot wider. Perhaps they want something that will handle high iso situations better or do shallow depth of field for portraiture. Or maybe they are getting into wedding photography and they want f2.8 fixed aperture zooms. There is a reason why there are a bunch of different camera sizes, formats and lens choices out there -- one size doesn't fit all people and as has been stated many times before, all cameras are a compromise.

I think the majority choose their camera based on price and availability. There are a few photographers out there that just want the best, whatever they perceive that to be -- even if it means they need a Sherpa to lug their gear around. Honestly, I don't think camera makers make that much off of their entry level cameras and so their whole focus seems to be on limiting those cameras enough that anybody seriously interested in photography will eventually move up to more expensive gear.

08-15-2017, 06:09 AM - 1 Like   #260
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It seems to be like a grand experiment. Aristophanes said something like it a few posts ago. The argument is that some of the old-established camera companies bet that FF was the natural terminus of the market with everything else a sideshow which would gradually fall away in most cases. Instead rapid technological progress and the arrival of video and mobile platforms has delivered a "good enough" bar far below FF. This may have left a smaller pool of high-end customers than anticipated. In addition, the decline of the camera market has shrunk the pool at the same time. So now we have a lot of camera outfits with their $$$ FF offerings all piling in, hoping that the pool is big enough to sustain the show. Every time this comes up, though, I recall that stat: compared to the same period in 2014, in 2017 the Jan-Jun cash value shipments in Asia of DSLRs are down about a fifth and of mirrorless cameras are up by more than double.
08-15-2017, 06:29 AM   #261
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
It seems to be like a grand experiment. Aristophanes said something like it a few posts ago. The argument is that some of the old-established camera companies bet that FF was the natural terminus of the market with everything else a sideshow which would gradually fall away in most cases. Instead rapid technological progress and the arrival of video and mobile platforms has delivered a "good enough" bar far below FF. This may have left a smaller pool of high-end customers than anticipated. In addition, the decline of the camera market has shrunk the pool at the same time. So now we have a lot of camera outfits with their $$$ FF offerings all piling in, hoping that the pool is big enough to sustain the show. Every time this comes up, though, I recall that stat: compared to the same period in 2014, in 2017 the Jan-Jun cash value shipments in Asia of DSLRs are down about a fifth and of mirrorless cameras are up by more than double.
Somehow you are equating full frame to SLR and crop cameras to mirrorless, but that is clearly not the case. And if mirrorless camera sales are up, clearly some of that is due to increased sales of NEX cameras including the new A9. Sony sales have been brisk, but it is not clear to me what percentage of that is due to full frame and what is due to APS-C cameras. The ones that are talked about the most on the Forum have been the full frame models, but buzz doesn't equal sales.

You can still have a situation where traditional cameras eventually shift from SLRs to mirrorless but still continue to push "serious" photographers towards larger sensors where there is more profit to be made.
08-15-2017, 06:30 AM - 2 Likes   #262
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
It seems to be like a grand experiment. Aristophanes said something like it a few posts ago. The argument is that some of the old-established camera companies bet that FF was the natural terminus of the market with everything else a sideshow which would gradually fall away in most cases. Instead rapid technological progress and the arrival of video and mobile platforms has delivered a "good enough" bar far below FF. This may have left a smaller pool of high-end customers than anticipated. In addition, the decline of the camera market has shrunk the pool at the same time. So now we have a lot of camera outfits with their $$$ FF offerings all piling in, hoping that the pool is big enough to sustain the show. Every time this comes up, though, I recall that stat: compared to the same period in 2014, in 2017 the Jan-Jun cash value shipments in Asia of DSLRs are down about a fifth and of mirrorless cameras are up by more than double.
Let's compare pre-digital boom shall we ?
The market is just back to normal.

08-15-2017, 06:45 AM   #263
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QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
Let's compare pre-digital boom shall we ?
The market is just back to normal.
I doubt there is a back to normal here. Nothing repeats in the same way at a time of such rapid technological change. But that's not the point of the comparison. As Aristophanes pointed out a few posts ago, it's the degree of cannibalization going on in recent years. And if that is correct, then it suggests that some of the old established companies bet wrong in thinking that FF DSLRs were going to be the end point of market development. The pool of customers for that is not as large as they thought it would be. Worth following developments in Asia, I think. That's where it's mostly happening. We are a sideshow by comparison.

Last edited by mecrox; 08-15-2017 at 06:51 AM.
08-15-2017, 06:45 AM   #264
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
It seems to be like a grand experiment. Aristophanes said something like it a few posts ago. The argument is that some of the old-established camera companies bet that FF was the natural terminus of the market with everything else a sideshow which would gradually fall away in most cases. Instead rapid technological progress and the arrival of video and mobile platforms has delivered a "good enough" bar far below FF. This may have left a smaller pool of high-end customers than anticipated. In addition, the decline of the camera market has shrunk the pool at the same time. So now we have a lot of camera outfits with their $$$ FF offerings all piling in, hoping that the pool is big enough to sustain the show. Every time this comes up, though, I recall that stat: compared to the same period in 2014, in 2017 the Jan-Jun cash value shipments in Asia of DSLRs are down about a fifth and of mirrorless cameras are up by more than double. I doubt there is a normal since nothing repeats in the same way at a time of such rapid technological change. But that's not the point of the comparison. As Aristophanes pointed out, it's the degree of cannibalization going on. And if that is correct, then it suggests that some of the old established companies bet wrong in thinking that FF DSLRs were going to be the end point of market development. The pool of customers for that is not as large as they thought it would be.
What should we do then?
08-15-2017, 06:51 AM - 1 Like   #265
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
I doubt there is a normal since nothing repeats in the same way at a time of such rapid technological change. But that's not the point of the comparison. As Aristophanes pointed out, it's the degree of cannibalization going on. And if that is correct, then it suggests that some of the old established companies bet wrong in thinking that FF DSLRs were going to be the end point of market development. The pool of customers for that is not as large as they thought it would be.
There will be a new balance. Some percentage of folks still like SLRs and hate EVFs, some love EVFs and there are probably some in the mddle who don't really care as long as the price and the specs are right. The question for each brand is how they can deal with a level of sales that is significantly lower than it was 5 or 6 years ago. 20 percent of a market that is only 60 percent the size that it was a few years ago is something, but maybe you need fewer models and lines of cameras and your production needs to be tailored to that number.

I think this is what has hurt Nikon the most. In some ways it is harder to gear down than to gear up and Nikon makes too many lines of cameras. Better to shrink that number, not overproduce cameras. In this sense, Ricoh is probably in better shape, as they don't have as many lines of cameras and they should be able to generate a profit with much lower sales numbers than Canon or Nikon.
08-15-2017, 06:54 AM - 1 Like   #266
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
What should we do then?
Take whatever photographs you want to take,
with whatever equipment you have that does the job for you!
08-15-2017, 06:56 AM   #267
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QuoteOriginally posted by lytrytyr Quote
Take whatever photographs you want to take, with whatever equipment you have that does the job for you!
Ah ok, thanks. That's reassuring.
08-15-2017, 06:57 AM   #268
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
What should we do then?
Have a good time. It's just market-watching during the summer lull. No doubt things will pick up again in September and October.
08-15-2017, 07:03 AM   #269
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QuoteOriginally posted by thibs Quote
Let's compare pre-digital boom shall we ?
The market is just back to normal.
Hmm... I can see the market settling in a pattern that is not unlike the one in the past (film) days.
Crop cameras becoming the new "small format"; FF as the "medium format" (which, with film, was relatively accessible); compact and disposable cameras... the smartphones, I guess? We're also going with slower upgrade cycles, and people who only want a compact started to realize it's pointless to buy a DSLR.
One thing is sure, unless photography itself will disappear the market has to stabilize.
08-15-2017, 08:39 AM   #270
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I meant (and should have been clearer) in the numbers produced.
Indeed, segmentation will be different but back to normal reasonable numbers, hence bigger margins, less mass products.
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