[Kunzite]

If we agree that PCs can't be "fully" replaced, we're just one step away from agreeing that PCs can't be "fully" replaced for image and video processing

[reh321]

Is anyone here arguing that workstations are going to be "fully" replaced by tablets and smartphones? I certainly am not.

It boils down to this:

1. Is the ILC/serious camera market stabilized or will phones continue to erode the market size of ILCs?
2. Can Ricoh successfully compete within this shrunken market?
3. What is the growth potential of getting phone photographers to step up to ILCs?

My recent posts discuss the third point and what features might be important there. I am positing that any ILC targeting that market should focus on phone integration because computer desktop tools are not critical to that group.

I would think that WiFi is a major step in the direction.

[Rondec]

Is anyone here arguing that workstations are going to be "fully" replaced by tablets and smartphones? I certainly am not.



It boils down to this:

1. Is the ILC/serious camera market stabilized or will phones continue to erode the market size of ILCs?
2. Can Ricoh successfully compete within this shrunken market?
3. What is the growth potential of getting phone photographers to step up to ILCs?

My recent posts discuss the third point and what features might be important there. I am positing that any ILC targeting that market should focus on phone integration because computer desktop tools are not critical to that group.

I think it is clear that not only has the ILC market shrunk, but it will continue to shrink some more. This is as much due to the maturing the market as it is due to the influx of cell phone cameras.

The bigger problem from the standpoint of the major players is that existent ILCs are good enough that they don't need to be replaced for a minimum of five or six years. If you own an A7r II, you probably won't need to buy a new camera for a long time. The same with the 5D MK IV or D810. Adding a few megapixels or frames per second isn't going to drive most photographers to exchange gear that works with slightly better gear.

I still haven't seen many photo enthusiasts replacing their ILCs with cell phone cameras -- it is more that they use their cell phones as an adjunct for certain situations where they don't have an ILC handy, not that they've dumped their SLRs or mirrorless cameras to use only an iphone or Galaxy.

[Mistral75]

(...)

Is the ILC/serious camera market stabilized or will phones continue to erode the market size of ILCs?
(...)

The ILC market is actually growing this year, see the latest CIPA figures for the January - August period, 2017 shipments compared to 2016 shipments.

Cameras: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201708_e.pdf
Lenses: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201708_e.pdf

Camera market: +14% in units and +23% in ¥
Lens market: +5% in units and +11% in ¥

The compact cameras beat the whole market: +16% in units and +29% in ¥
whilst the ILC market is slightly behind: +11% in units and +21% in ¥

The lower growth of the ILC market comes from the stalling DSLR market: -3% in units and +2% in ¥
whilst the mirrorless market is booming: +51% in units and +73% in ¥.

DSLR cameras still dominate the ILC market but much less than last year: 1.9 DSLRs shipped in 2017 per mirrorless shipped versus 2.9 last year.

[rawr]

cell phones are the number one camera devices in use right now

I suspect 'CCTV' type cameras, in all their forms (security, baby monitors and dozens of other types), may take that title, or give mobile phones a run for their money. Amazing how omni-present they can be in some places. Less interesting than mobiles, but they are there in big numbers.

[johnmflores]

I still haven't seen many photo enthusiasts replacing their ILCs with cell phone cameras -- it is more that they use their cell phones as an adjunct for certain situations where they don't have an ILC handy, not that they've dumped their SLRs or mirrorless cameras to use only an iphone or Galaxy.

That's certainly true but I wonder how many photographers are foregoing the nice compacts and accepting the quality available on their phone. I know that I have. Whereas five years ago I'd bring a camera and a prime to a social gathering just in case a photo opportunity arose or buy a small mirrorless camera just for that situation, today I leave the camera home. Less use = less wear = less compulsion to upgrade perhaps.

The ILC market is actually growing this year, see the latest CIPA figures for the January - August period, 2017 shipments compared to 2016 shipments.

Cameras: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201708_e.pdf
Lenses: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-201708_e.pdf

Camera market: +14% in units and +23% in ¥
Lens market: +5% in units and +11% in ¥

The compact cameras beat the whole market: +16% in units and +29% in ¥
whilst the ILC market is slightly behind: +11% in units and +21% in ¥

The lower growth of the ILC market comes from the stalling DSLR market: -3% in units and +2% in ¥
whilst the mirrorless market is booming: +51% in units and +73% in ¥.

DSLR cameras still dominate the ILC market but much less than last year: 1.9 DSLRs shipped in 2017 per mirrorless shipped versus 2.9 last year.

I'm talking about the larger trend. I'm sure that we've all seen this chart:


SOURCE: This Latest Camera Sales Chart Shows the Compact Camera Near Death

it's interesting to compare the numbers you shared with the same report from 2011:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201108_e.pdf

Revenue is nearly halved from those halcyon days, most of the loss in fixed lens cameras. And while ILC unit sales are down ~23%, revenue is actually up 4% thanks to the move upmarket and the higher profit margins there.

The recent sales data that you share is certainly encouraging but I'm not quite ready to say that the size of the market has stabilized. A couple more quarters of good growth would be nice, as would more timely product releases from Ricoh.

[MarkJerling]

That is, of course, only a part of the graph. The full graph is a bit of an eyeopener.

[Larrymc]

That is, of course, only a part of the graph. The full graph is a bit of an eyeopener.

It would be interesting to know exactly what percentage of smartphone "sales" are attributed to actual purchases by individuals or come as part of a package when one subscribes to a service. Even the most basic of subscription service provides smart phones nowadays.


Larry

[Rondec]

I suspect 'CCTV' type cameras, in all their forms (security, baby monitors and dozens of other types), may take that title, or give mobile phones a run for their money. Amazing how omni-present they can be in some places. Less interesting than mobiles, but they are there in big numbers.

Could be, although few of those images end up on Flickr and Instagram.

[mee]

That is, of course, only a part of the graph. The full graph is a bit of an eyeopener.

The data doesn't necessarily point to the claims being made though.

For one, those camera sales are simply a part of the phone. You can't buy a smartphone without at least 1 (usually 2 or more) cameras on them. Thus, the data simply shows a lot of phones were sold (that also happened to contain at least one camera onboard).

But that doesn't mean everyone who bought the phone is using it as their primary camera.. or for the camera at all.

Nor does it show that smartphone camera application is the same as more dedicated camera application. Which would then possibly lead one to wonder if the users of these smartphones are interested in the same level of post processing as someone with a dedicated ILC would be?

All it seems to show is, again, a lot of smartphones have been sold globally.

And, perhaps, camera related apps might be a business to enter. But it doesn't show, on its own, what type of camera related apps should be developed (cutesy, animal face selfie makers, instagram filters, lightroom edits, photoshop edits, or something different altogether).

[Kunzite]

You can't buy a smartphone without at least 1 (usually 2 or more) cameras on them.

Then, we should multiply the smartphone sales by 2!

[Rondec]

The data doesn't necessarily point to the claims being made though.

For one, those camera sales are simply a part of the phone. You can't buy a smartphone without at least 1 (usually 2 or more) cameras on them. Thus, the data simply shows a lot of phones were sold (that also happened to contain at least one camera onboard).

But that doesn't mean everyone who bought the phone is using it as their primary camera.. or for the camera at all.

Nor does it show that smartphone camera application is the same as more dedicated camera application. Which would then possibly lead one to wonder if the users of these smartphones are interested in the same level of post processing as someone with a dedicated ILC would be?

All it seems to show is, again, a lot of smartphones have been sold globally.

And, perhaps, camera related apps might be a business to enter. But it doesn't show, on its own, what type of camera related apps should be developed (cutesy, animal face selfie makers, instagram filters, lightroom edits, photoshop edits, or something different altogether).

I think we can safely say that smartphones have killed the compact market and that they have shrunk the ILC market. I think it is hard to say more than that.

Ten years ago, cell phone cameras were universally terrible -- better than nothing, but just barely. Now, there is little difference between most cell phone cameras and a compact camera's performance. People aren't buying the cell phones for the cameras, but once they have them, they are definitely using them. If all you are interested in is snap shots of your life -- selfies with your friends, photos of the pizza you ate last night, and so on, then a cell phone probably is more than adequate.

[Kunzite]

Smartphones killed the compact market because:
a. they're always with you
b. they can take pictures (with the added bonus of easy sharing)
People naturally found out they don't need - and won't bother with - a dedicated photo device.

We should be very careful before extrapolating this to ILCs. There's quite a difference between "my smartphone already has a camera, why should I bother with a dedicated one?" to "technically, an ILC does not have any significant advantage over a smartphone"
Then, there's the simple fact that smartphones sales are interpreted as camera sales, and the specifics of the two markets.

But, it's much easier to make a scary looking chart and draw an incorrect conclusion

[JPT]

In my opinion, the way compacts are shown as one category in these graphs hides an important trend. The fact that they show units and not value also clouds the issue.

I think it makes a lot more sense to distinguish between the low-end compacts that used to sell in bucket loads but don't make sense any more, and the high-end ones.

Let's say you drew the line by sensor size at "one inch" models, or did so by price at $500. In that case I think the trend would be quite different. I even think the high end compacts like the GR, Fuji X100, the Sony RX series, the pricy Leica models, and Canon's line-up might have outperformed DSLRs in the last few years. Camera phones are no substitute for these in terms of final image quality or the pleasure of shooting with them.

The sad thing is that Ricoh used to have good models in this category, including that GXR, which was much like a high-end compact in some configurations. Now they seem to have sacrificed everything but the GR.

[lytrytyr]

I even think the high end compacts like the GR, Fuji X100, the Sony RX series, the pricy Leica models, and Canon's line-up might have outperformed DSLRs in the last few years. Camera phones are no substitute for these in terms of final image quality or the pleasure of shooting with them.

The sad thing is that Ricoh used to have good models in this category, including that GXR, which was much like a high-end compact in some configurations. Now they seem to have sacrificed everything but the GR.

That's also the space in which the Q system lives, although it's generally cheaper and more versatile.

---------- Post added 10-03-17 at 06:59 AM ----------

Now, there is little difference between most cell phone cameras and a compact camera's performance.

In the cell phone's sweet spot, for small on-screen photos, if you don't want to take more than what your limited battery life will power, or what you're able to upload off the limited memory, maybe!