[Ishpuini]

So, how come the name recognition, then? Ads? Pros are all using? Or..?

Most of us here knows what FF are and I bet 99.9% do use APS-C only. So?

I'll join in with a little example to clarify that you arguments do not reflect the real market RH.

I've been taking a Digital Photography evening class for the last 3 years now. This is a serious programme that will result in a degree after completing the 4th year. This degree used to be the minimum requirement in Belgium to become recognised as a professional photographer, although this rule was abandoned a few years ago under pressure of the EU... Anyway, it's a serious course that attracts people who are serious about their APS-C DSLRs.

Now these people are in the game for the picture taking, and I can vouch that in the entire student population throughout the 4 years (about 70 people) there are about 10 who actively follow the market evolution. The remaining 60 still use their first APS-C DSLR and don't really know what happened since (and they don't care either). The only purchase most of these are planning is additional lenses, since they realise that these make much more of a difference. And... before you ask, these people don't even know about the image circle of a lens being adapted to the sensor size, so they won't really care about that when they purchase a lens.

Thing is, you should understand that the people posting and even reading these forums are just a small part of the market for DSLRs. An the evolution being that many P&S users are moving up to DSLRs currently means that the "knowledgeable" portion of DSLR users is becoming relatively smaller as we speak.

Anyway, I don't have a crystal ball... but I do meet a lot of DSLR users in real life.

Wim

PS: the fact that everybody continues referring to the 135format as FF is just proof of the fact that they don't fully know what it is...

[RiceHigh]

Thing is, you should understand that the people posting and even reading these forums are just a small part of the market for DSLRs. An the evolution being that many P&S users are moving up to DSLRs currently means that the "knowledgeable" portion of DSLR users is becoming relatively smaller as we speak.

Photo students, no matter they are pro (like you) or not (just to learn a new hobby) are just a"small part of the market for DSLRs"! :-)

And, do we remember the K1000, which many photo students owned, but in fact it is just a camera with little or even not any auto function at all!

PS: the fact that everybody continues referring to the 135format as FF is just proof of the fact that they don't fully know what it is...

Oly has been calling their 4-3 system "full frame" but we all know what FF is referring to. This is just a *convention* afterall.

[Okami]

Oh gosh your argument is starting to make no sense at all anymore.

Students of course are a smaller group but a much more higher percentage of these students will actually know what Full frame is compared to massmarket and understand the benefits of a full frame sensor

The pros that care about Full Frame and the best cameras you can buy are even a smaller part of that small group..

And That Very Small group of Pros is the only group that your original statement about people flocking to the companies that support full frame would apply to.

Mass Market couldn't care less.
If I had two cameras same price

One with 20 mp and Cropped Sensor
One with 16 mp with Full Frame Sensor

Everything else the same

Which one do you think the average mass consumer would buy looking at the box?

[thibs]

Photo students, no matter they are pro (like you) or not (just to learn a new hobby) are just a"small part of the market for DSLRs"! :-)

Yes and a part of the market which should be a lot more aware of those thing than John Doe. You destroy your own argumentation here, as usual.

Oly has been calling their 4-3 system "full frame" but we all know what FF is referring to. This is just a *convention* afterall.

True [mostly ] but false nonetheless.

[pentaxshooter]

Shhhhh!

Don't tell anyone...it's a secret.

Pentax is.....OMG someones coming.,,,,jdslkfa;vd v

[Pål Jensen]

It seems Pentax is becoming much stricter in its leaking information prior to official press releases. Wim

They have always been strict...

[Pål Jensen]

I
Maybe if people actually used the fantastic cameras they actually own,
dave

I own a few fantastic Pentax cameras but they all use film...

[Pål Jensen]

I really hope Pentax comes out with their new APS-C and FFs dSLRs this year, otherwise their market share will decrease even more. Hoya corporate management as well as Shareholders most certainly are keeping a very close eye to Pentax marketing share and viability!

br
Sam

Very true. It is now more important than ever that Pentax show their cards and outline of their future model policy. The reason is that the DSLR market will mature in 2009; ie all the (other?) manufacturer will have complete line-ups showing their commitment and direction. The keyword here is obviously FF....
...and let me just add that due to the uncertanties in connection with the Hoya takeover, Pentax is in a particular need to clarify their future direction....

[RiceHigh]

Very true. It is now more important than ever that Pentax show their cards and outline of their future model policy. The reason is that the DSLR market will mature in 2009; ie all the (other?) manufacturer will have complete line-ups showing their commitment and direction. The keyword here is obviously FF....

Good point and thats the key point. I think quite some forum pals above still either not yet understand this simple reality no matter how I explained to them!

People just don't understand or could not accept that the key point is not about "need", its about market trend, which is just mostly set by camera vendors more than market demands (yes, the market demands are to be set by them! And then they see how much portion they can get from this new cake they offered!)

Also, flagship serves mostly symbolic purposes for most customers and in this case ditto for the FF.

[Okami]

Good point and thats the key point. I think quite some forum pals above still either not yet understand this simple reality no matter how I explained to them!

People just don't understand or could not accept that the key point is not about "need", its about market trend, which is just mostly set by camera vendors more than market demands (yes, the market demands are to be set by them! And then they see how much portion they can get from this new cake they offered!)

Also, flagship serves mostly symbolic purposes for most customers and in this case ditto for the FF.

Considering how narrow minded your explanations are and how you backtrack on your own words are you surprised?

Market trend lets see....

Last year Canon had this production lineup

http://cweb.canon.jp/camera/eosd/index.html

After Photokina as the 5D is replaced Canon will have a total of maybe 1 extra FF if you dont consider them replacements.

http://cweb.canon.jp/camera/eosd/index.html

I see a market trend coming in there!!! If you are using market trends to consider the importance of a feature it seems to be Live View by far outweighs FF as the defacto market trend buzz word this year. Followed closely by Movie Mode that came out with the D90.

As long as the mass market really doesn't understand or are willing to pay more for a camera that has full frame as it's only advantage its not going to be a must have for camera manufacturers. Are companies eventually going to have a pissing contest and fit it in one day? Yes..

But the increased cost of manufacturing a FF sensor + the minimal sales increases makes it more of a , we'll put it when we feel like it feature in all but the pro lines

Another example for you

What do you think would get more buzz from the mass market
If Pentax all the sudden throws in movie mode throughout it's whole line
or
Pentax throws in full frame throughout it's whole line.

[Pål Jensen]

But the increased cost of manufacturing a FF sensor + the minimal sales increases makes it more of a , we'll put it when we feel like it feature in all but the pro lines

Another example for you

What do you think would get more buzz from the mass market
If Pentax all the sudden throws in movie mode throughout it's whole line
or
Pentax throws in full frame throughout it's whole line.

This is not about this years sales but next year and the year after that etc. "All" manufacturers that can are about to introduce FF. In my country, national newspaper have one page advertising from Nikon of the D700. Is that because it is not expected to sell?
The major camera stores advertizing nationally in major newspaper push the D700 and the D90; no D300 in sight. The D700 is about to transform the high-end DSLR market and its only 12mp! The Canon 5D MKII is here next week and will be heavily promoted as well. Next years sales chart of the higher end will look very different from this years....

[bodhi]

This is not about this years sales but next year and the year after that etc. "All" manufacturers that can are about to introduce FF. In my country, national newspaper have one page advertising from Nikon of the D700. Is that because it is not expected to sell?
The major camera stores advertizing nationally in major newspaper push the D700 and the D90; no D300 in sight. The D700 is about to transform the high-end DSLR market and its only 12mp! The Canon 5D MKII is here next week and will be heavily promoted as well. Next years sales chart of the higher end will look very different from this years....

exactly..its imo very important for Pentax to at least show a prototype of a FF body with some FF lenses. I have no need to upgrade now, but ill want to go for FF someday.. lets say 2-3 years from now, when i think the FF will be far more affordable. Its important for Pentax to not lose the FF train

[wiyum]

The D700 is about to transform the high-end DSLR market and its only 12mp! The Canon 5D MKII is here next week and will be heavily promoted as well. Next years sales chart of the higher end will look very different from this years....

The D700 isn't about to transform much. The D700 is certainly a better camera than the Canon 5D, but three years later I'd expect it to be. Still, in the big-ticket specs, it is, in fact, the same specs as the 5D. Don't get me wrong, the 5D made a splash, but it didn't take Canon anywhere it wasn't already going. In fact, since the D200 and D80 and D40x and D300 (none of which, I'll remind you, were "FF" cameras), Canon has actually *lost* marketshare to Nikon. Canon brought "full-frame" to the masses that had $3000 to spend on a camera and it didn't exactly change the game for them. The price dropped over three years and at $2100, it still hasn't changed the game for them. They are expected to announce a new model, with amazing specs, and I'd bet good money on it being around the same cost as the D700, and in the $3000 ballpark, it won't change the game for them. Sony, for their part, will announce the A900, selling for what I'm hearing will be between $3000 and $5000, and it won't change the game for them. All of these cameras will be great tools, and all of them will sell and all of them will win over new customers. But really, not THAT many new customers. A 36x24mm sensor is a great thing to have in a camera, and I'd love one myself, but it isn't going to have this widespread effect on the industry that some people keep suggesting. Canon and Nikon will continue to sell the most cameras, not because they have FF models at the top of the lineup but because they're CANON and NIKON, and they've controlled marketshare for over a decade now. The cameras that they'll sell the most of, DSLR-wise, will be the Rebels and the D-less-than-70s. Most of those will be sold in mass market retailers that don't sell higher-end cameras, from salespeople that don't know higher-end cameras, to customers that don't know about higher-end cameras. To say nothing of the salespeople and customers that won't know the difference between an APS-C sensor and a "FF" one.

Pentax won't gain marketshare by playing "me-too." They'll gain marketshare by offering something different. And by offering a full lineup of lenses that are designed for the cropped sensor, by offering useful zooms in the right focal lengths for said sensor and things like an actual normal prime (the DA*30mm) and compact wide angle prime (DA Limited 15mm), they can offer something unique to the consumer that is paying less than $3000 for a camera, and that's most of 'em by a wide margin. By offering an 11-16mm 2.8 zoom, they can say "here's something unique." The other guys never invested money in actually developing lenses for their smaller sensor cameras, so trying to push "FF" is how they offer something to consumers that resembles what they once had in terms of lens options. Pentax doesn't suffer from that. They have a lineup of stellar optics that work and offer a full range of focal lengths on a small-sensor camera that costs less than $1300. They need to use that as a selling point, get a more down-market APS-C camera AND a more professional one as well. hey need to develop that lens lineup. And yes, they need to think about a "FF" model and the lenses that would go on it. But right now, they have a huge asset that speaks to almost every consumer buying a DSLR this year and next in a great lens lineup, and they lack the manufacturing capacity to offer any sort of comprehensive lens lineup for "FF" cameras. If Pentax wants to gain marketshare and become a bigger player, then 2009 and early 2010 are about APS-C cameras and a full fleet of lenses for them, even if they spend all of these two years developing a FF camera and figuring out how to launch it with a shelf full of new glass in useful focal lengths.

To do anything else would be suicide for them, plain and simple.

Will

[deejjjaaaa]

Pentax... 'll gain marketshare by offering... things like an actual normal prime (the DA*30mm) and compact wide angle prime (DA Limited 15mm)

to whom ? to people "...that won't know the difference between an APS-C sensor and a "FF" one..." ? yeah, right - they will rush to buy DA*30 and DA limited 15...

[Pål Jensen]

The D700 isn't about to transform much. The D700 is certainly a better camera than the Canon 5D, but three years later I'd expect it to be. Still, in the big-ticket specs, it is, in fact, the same specs as the 5D. Don't get me wrong, the 5D made a splash, but it didn't take Canon anywhere it wasn't already going. In fact, since the D200 and D80 and D40x and D300 (none of which, I'll remind you, were "FF" cameras), Canon has actually *lost* marketshare to Nikon. Canon brought "full-frame" to the masses that had $3000 to spend on a camera and it didn't exactly change the game for them. The price dropped over three years and at $2100, it still hasn't changed the game for them. They are expected to announce a new model, with amazing specs, and I'd bet good money on it being around the same cost as the D700, and in the $3000 ballpark, it won't change the game for them. Sony, for their part, will announce the A900, selling for what I'm hearing will be between $3000 and $5000, and it won't change the game for them. All of these cameras will be great tools, and all of them will sell and all of them will win over new customers. But really, not THAT many new customers. Will

It is true that it is not about THAT many customers but that goes for the higher end DSLR market as a whole. 90% of DSLR sales are entry level and will continue to be so. This, however, is about the high-end which is indeed about to be transformed.
In adition, theres a time for everything. The market must be ready for it. It is about being there when it happens. AF didn't happen when it was first released. That didn't mean it was an umarketable concept destined for minuscule marketshares.
Remember, that the manufactures will release now cameras that will sell in tomorrows marketplace. They have to predict future trends. Theres no way Canon, Nikon, Sony and Samsung (Pentax) are working on FF by thinking it will stay at 1% marketshare, or even very small marketshare. These cameras will erode into upper level APS cameras sales. If the EVIL cameras, destined for the next couple of years or so, catch on, they will erode into the entry level DSLR sales.
FF is where sensors can go at present and they will for no other reasons even. Camera manufacturers want you to buy a new camera and lenses and will do what it takes to get there.