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02-04-2018, 02:40 PM - 2 Likes   #241
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
A fair opinion obviously, but mine is that concentrating 100 per cent on DSLRs will put Pentax out of business eventually. Even if they reduced down to a single FF camera and more or less dumped APS-C, the DSLR market will become too tough and constrained for a niche player on the side. It is simply shrinking year by year. Somehow, Ricoh have to navigate a changeover period of a few years - still with DSLRs for their traditional customers for sure but with the new-gen stuff building and gradually coming through for the new wave of future customers. It doesn’t have to be either/or, and none of us knows what Ricoh really want from their imaging division anyway.

So, yes to a good new APS-C DSLR in 2018 but if Ricoh spokesmen rule out mirrorless in the not very distant future, I would take it as a warning that Ricoh are looking for an out of some kind.
People over-extrapolate trends. They think that if something is growing now, it will grow forever (e.g. Bitcoin & mirrorless) and replace everything else. But it rarely happens that way.

DSLRs still outsell mirrorless in most markets. A substantive percentage of the population gets headaches from EVFs, dislikes the aesthetics of EVFs, or actually prefers a larger body camera. And the entire history of consumer products shows that variety grows over time and although popularity of a product waxes and wanes, most categories of products continue to sell. Even vinyl and film still sell.

Pentax does not need to go mirrorless any more than Olympus needs to go full-frame. Both companies offer vary nice platforms tailored to their specific types of users. Although mirrorless and fullframe may be growing in popularity in recent years, there's every reason to believe that neither mirrorless nor full-frame will kill the alternatives.

02-04-2018, 03:51 PM   #242
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
People over-extrapolate trends. They think that if something is growing now, it will grow forever (e.g. Bitcoin & mirrorless) and replace everything else. But it rarely happens that way.

DSLRs still outsell mirrorless in most markets. A substantive percentage of the population gets headaches from EVFs, dislikes the aesthetics of EVFs, or actually prefers a larger body camera. And the entire history of consumer products shows that variety grows over time and although popularity of a product waxes and wanes, most categories of products continue to sell. Even vinyl and film still sell.

Pentax does not need to go mirrorless any more than Olympus needs to go full-frame. Both companies offer vary nice platforms tailored to their specific types of users. Although mirrorless and fullframe may be growing in popularity in recent years, there's every reason to believe that neither mirrorless nor full-frame will kill the alternatives.
That view might need to be revisited in the light of one word: Asia.

Look at the stats over recent years. It’s clear that Asia has become the principal market driver in the camera world. And as I’ve said, it is not either/or anyway but both: asking Asian companies (which includes Japan) to walk by what will soon be half the Asian market for cameras isn’t a flier. They would be walking past the next generations of camera buyers. So those DSLR companies which want to survive will offer both. Canon as good as acknowledged this in their recent financial report when they said intend to “maintain sales growth, driven by mirrorless cameras where double-digit sales growth continues.” It’s just good old capitalism following the market and, tbh, completely unremarkable. And if the market changes, so astute companies will change their mix of products. They’re not really in the DSLR business or in the mirrorless business. It’s not a marriage. They’re simply in business. If the world changes so will they.

I fully expect Ricoh’s next APS-C camera to be a DSLR but I don’t think they can kick this can down the road much longer, not if they want to stay in the game.

Last edited by mecrox; 02-04-2018 at 04:12 PM.
02-04-2018, 04:08 PM   #243
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
They’re not really in the DSLR business or in the mirrorless business. It’s not a marriage. They’re simply in business.
This is an interesting point.

I've long wondered whether, at the heart of Ricoh / Pentax, there is any passion for what it produces, or if the cameras and lenses are simply another range of black box products in a niche market.

I don't doubt that some of the individuals in the product development team must have a passion for photographic equipment, but I wonder how far - if at all - this extends to corporate strategy. Or will that strategy simply follow the money? It seems to me there's more to it than that, given a number of product and design choices they've made over the last decade...
02-04-2018, 08:23 PM   #244
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
Mirrorless is in direct and immediate conflict with DSLR in terms of competing for money spent on R&D and time spent by camera designers, lens designers, software engineers, manufacturing, top executives, etc.

There's no way Ricoh can take a limited pot of money, cut it in two, and create competitive products in both architectures. Dividing their resources in half just means falling further behind on both camera styles.
There are various opportunities that wouldn't involve dividing resources in half - two examples


(1) the QP I suggested earlier would require an EVF effort and a repackaging effort, but much of the development would just be moved over from the KP and the Q-S2 - it has already been done.


(2) the K-07 I suggested earlier would require an EVF effort and a repackaging effort, but much of the development would just be moved over from the K-70 - it has already been done


Last edited by reh321; 02-04-2018 at 08:31 PM.
02-05-2018, 04:09 AM   #245
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
This is an interesting point.

I've long wondered whether, at the heart of Ricoh / Pentax, there is any passion for what it produces, or if the cameras and lenses are simply another range of black box products in a niche market.

I don't doubt that some of the individuals in the product development team must have a passion for photographic equipment, but I wonder how far - if at all - this extends to corporate strategy. Or will that strategy simply follow the money? It seems to me there's more to it than that, given a number of product and design choices they've made over the last decade...
Well, Pentax has been valued for years for what one might call cameras made by and for photographers. I'm sure their teams greatly like and respect the DSLR form factor, and obviously they are expert in it, but at the same time I am sure they are pragmatic people, If the need to change a bit is there, they will change what they do. After all, in the 645 series, the Q and the GR they've already shown they can make cameras in other form factors which are as good as the best of them. It's nothing they haven't done before. In fact, Canon, Nikon and Pentax are almost the only camera companies which haven't substantially reinvented themselves over the past 10-15 years. To me, what would be remarkable is if they don't change a bit, not if they do.

One could argue that if things continue with cameras moving up the market and the whole thing becoming more and more exclusive, then some companies won't be in the camera business at all but in the luxury brands game. I guess Leica and perhaps Hasselblad and Phase One are already there. Very different rules for that game. No more boxes piled high in chain stores, etc. Who wants to buy a beautifully-made 2000-note lens in the same place which sells toasters and boomboxes? I'd be surprised if some of the camera companies aren't at least looking at this scenario too.
02-05-2018, 05:50 AM   #246
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
One could argue that if things continue with cameras moving up the market and the whole thing becoming more and more exclusive, then some companies won't be in the camera business at all but in the luxury brands game. I guess Leica and perhaps Hasselblad and Phase One are already there. Very different rules for that game. No more boxes piled high in chain stores, etc. Who wants to buy a beautifully-made 2000-note lens in the same place which sells toasters and boomboxes? I'd be surprised if some of the camera companies aren't at least looking at this scenario too.


I think that will be a difficult time for the existing manufacturers. It's quite hard to break through into the luxury market.


Maybe this doesn't fully translate, but look at cars. You have the hyper brands like Bentley and Rolls Royce and Ferrari and Lambo. And the more consumer-luxury brands like Mercedes and Audi and BMW, maybe Lexus. When someone tries to break into these segments it's, hit or miss, at best. Hyundai is trying with Genesis, but nobody really thinks those are on par with the Germans. Even if objectively they're close you don't brag to your coworkers that you have a Genesis. Cadillac was once every bit as prestigious as a Mercedes, then spent years building crappy barges with velvet and chrome and no amount of technical achievement and pricing schemes has really put them on a subjective level with the other established luxury brands. They can't shake the idea that your grandmother drives a Caddy. I know, I cross-shopped a CTS with my Audi. I couldn't do it.


That's what I fear in cameras. Leica isn't a miracle brand. Some of their cameras are thinly disguised Panasonics. They're technically only fractionally better than cameras costing far less. But they're Leica. They still get people to buy $6000 rebadged Panasonics. Pentax will probably never get people to buy $6000 K-3IIIs, even if they paint a red dot on them and put them in exclusive storefronts in London and New York.


Is Pentax Cadillac? Once great, had a down period, now makes objectively very good products but they can't fully shake the idea that their time was long ago?
02-05-2018, 10:48 PM   #247
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Is Pentax Cadillac? Once great, had a down period, now makes objectively very good products but they can't fully shake the idea that their time was long ago?
I would rather say that Pentax is AMG...

02-06-2018, 03:15 AM   #248
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QuoteOriginally posted by yucafrita Quote
I would rather say that Pentax is AMG...
...with products deriving from those of another, better known make and very much sport-oriented indeed .
02-06-2018, 06:19 AM   #249
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Or like a Volvo, a workhorse (but small compared to VW and Toyota) with many practical features.
Volvo cars were bought by Ford -99 and then by Geely -10.
Volvo is doing well and is likely to remain in 10 years, I think Pentax is still there, but Ricoh probably needs to invest more on Pentax.
More new action cameras and a mirrorless based on GR? the coming years.
02-06-2018, 08:20 AM   #250
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As long as it has a Flip Down semi articulating screen....I'm fine. Maybe we have already see the end of an APS-C flagship with the K-3II ?
02-06-2018, 08:32 AM   #251
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Doubt we have seen the end of Pentax top of the line APS-c. Even FF pushing Nikon finally gave in and made the D500. It is one of their best selling, beyond entry level, cameras. Pentax has supported the crop sensor far more than Nikon.
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barondla
02-06-2018, 08:53 AM   #252
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Reading the latest developments in the dedicated thread, the K1mkII will indeed be the next Pentax Dslr.
Rumors are still the proof of: "where there is smoke, there is fire".
Unfortunately, no smoke on the K3 successor....
When o when if at all (meaning that if the KP is not really the K3 successor...)

Chris
02-06-2018, 01:07 PM   #253
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I'm hoping that we either see something around CP+ or at least some kind of news about it around then. There's already an article on the Pentax forum with them expecting some kind of news around then. We'll see what happens at CP+.
02-06-2018, 01:44 PM   #254
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QuoteOriginally posted by Chris Mak Quote
Rumors are still the proof of: "where there is smoke, there is fire".
Or someone smoking weed

(maybe not this time, but quite often)
02-06-2018, 03:08 PM   #255
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QuoteOriginally posted by yucafrita Quote
I would rather say that Pentax is AMG...
I was thinking DMC...Pentax is DOOMEDTM


Steve
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