[Chris Mak]

Significant emotional and financial investment in the Brand. Expectations not met. Projection of present* far into future.

* See US common stocks. January, 2018 was the largest USD inflow into equity mutual funds and ETF’s in history, projecting gains for the next three years. Same people are projecting the last two weeks (expected, normal) decline into a calamitous bear market.

Oh come on, like the last year has been anything other than lament over endlessly delayed primes, Pentax standing still, releasing nothing other than the KP, which went by almost unnoticed.
I know: now that CP+ is near, everyone expects great things, naturally. But after, it will be business as usual, or worse, when all the expectations have not been met. I am recalibrating my notion of what Pentax has become under Ricoh over the past years. Sorry if this raises offense with anyone.

Chris

[monochrome]

I have to say it would be nice if Ricoh told us at CP+ what their plans are for their cameras in the near future are. Just to Quash the “Doomed” memes!

It looks like they will be aiming at a $2k aps-c flagship and a $2.5k K1ii as far as price points go.

IMHO information (keeping it close to the vest) is a much more significant lever for Ricoh than CaNiSony. They have so few advantages - maybe they think surprise is one they can exploit and absolute opacity denies competitors the opportunity to preemptively position niche products.

.:

[Chris Mak]

Again NOT FACTS. Just your personal OPINION. You know nothing about what is happening at Ricoh. If you wish to state your OPINION, please do, you are most welcome. But stating unsupported conjecture and rumors as facts is disingenuous at best. It contributes nothing to the discussion and comes across to those who know better as sour grapes or worse. It also comes across to those who do not know better as fake news that might be believed.

Perhaps your opinion is correct and there will never be another APS-C flagship. But please state that as OPINION, not facts.

OK, I privately believe it is a bit more than my own opinion, but I agree, publicly it's nothing other than unsubstantiated rumor.
So no problem seeing it as such and admitting it may very well be different, even if I am personally convinced it will not be.

I think I have given more than enough of my opinion anayway. Time for other opinions and unsubstantiated rumors

Chris

[monochrome]

Oh come on, like the last year has been anything other than lament over endlessly delayed primes, Pentax standing still, releasing nothing other than the KP, which went by almost unnoticed.
I know: now that CP+ is near, everyone expects great things, naturally. But after, it will be business as usual, or worse, when all the expectations have not been met. I am recalibrating my notion of what Pentax has become under Ricoh over the past years. Sorry if this raises offense with anyone.

Chris

I don’t think anyone is offended. Others here feel differently than you do, try not to express what is (clearly) speculation as if it is fact, and choose not to rely on unclear hinting posts from a non-English-speaking chimera who hides his real identity and might not be privy to real info any more (if he ever was).

Kenspo, OTOH admits he cannot say what he knows, tells what he doesn’t know, yet maintains and strongly states his positive outlook (and sort of contradicts the no-APSc meme).

In any event, we should have a much better idea in a couple weeks, so why declaim Pentax Doom now?

[Pål Jensen]

Pentax needs to fill obvious holes in the FF line-up and the 645 system. It may well be that APS will have to wait awhile. They may think that the APS line is reasonably served by the KP in the mean time. This doesn't mean that there won't be true K3 replacement, just reflecting priorities.

[Kunzite]

Don't think too much of it.

I didn't, the first 100 times.

[reh321]

n.b. anyone who likes the KP or craves the K1mkII: you may continue asleep...
Oh, and a none existing body does not sell well it seems..

Chris

I'm not sure where that leaves me. I purchased a K-30 32 months ago, fully planning to use it at least 48 months - so I have 16 of those months to go. I love the KP but may wait out some of those 16 months anyway and see what else Pentax has for us. I am very optimistic about the path Pentax is following, the most optimistic about them l've been since I left Pentax and purchased a Canon 22-1/2 years ago.

[mecrox]

OK, I privately believe it is a bit more than my own opinion, but I agree, publicly it's nothing other than unsubstantiated rumor.
So no problem seeing it as such and admitting it may very well be different, even if I am personally convinced it will not be.

I think I have given more than enough of my opinion anayway. Time for other opinions and unsubstantiated rumors

Chris

Your needs sound like a dead ringer for a D500 (or similar), quite honestly. Pentax aren’t going to produce one. I don’t know what your gut reaction is, but go with that. The right choice for you is what matters. Pentax can’t cover every base and the KP was acknowledgement that high end sports/action stuff was a stretch too far. I’m sure Pentax will produce a fine new APS-C number, but it will be a Pentax take on things and it still won’t be anything like a D500. Asahi Man is now being trashed because he spoke an inconvenient truth. Honestly, you are worth more than being given the runaround. Just move on if that’s what you decide and don’t regret it.

[c.a.m]

Anyway, it does not matter, for me personally, the situation has also changed: Nikon brought the D500, Sigma brought the 500mm/f4 sports. So also my future is bright!

I think I am beginning to understand your perspective and frustration, although I'm not in the same ballpark as you - the D500 and Sigma 500/4 is priced at CAD $10,500 here in Canada, which is way beyond my budget threshold. If you need a long lens and quick AF, that pair would be great, and the gear is available now. At present, there are no firm indications of a new Pentax APS-C camera with D500-style AF and tracking, and certainly no 500/4 type lens on the roadmap. The Nikon/Sigma pair make sense for you, I think. Have you acquired them yet?

As for me, I'm happy to continue shooting with my K-3 II and a stable of lenses that suit my style, while enjoying the speculation as 2018 marches on.

- Craig

[robjmitchell]

Don't think too much of it.
I really expected a K3II successor up until a few days ago.
Why: because it seemed logical, the K1 launch already took up much of Pentax' resources and efforts over the last years, and I somehow thought it logical that it would now be time for the APS-C refresh.
Due to the complete absence of info/rumors or whatever over the last year, I did not know what to expect, only using my own reference on what would be likely.
Missing the mark by such an extent was not what I expected, but the K1mkII rumor so close to CP+ rang a bell.

So, ok, I am grateful to asahiman for sticking his neck out, and giving me and others a view on what has been going on behind scenes at Pentax/Ricoh. Because they'll be damned before they offer any communication themselves. I guess it is enough to draw my conclusions and simply start the switch, you are right.
But I cannot deny that I feel as if Pentax has been pulling my leg over the past years, they should have cleared the air and stated what their plans were with the KP, at least that is how I see it.
Consider it a bit of therapee to get the disappointment out of my system. All in all I am not that concerned with what others think or believe. I just feel the need to blow some clouds of false expectations away, considering that there are quite a few others that must have believed this year we would see a K3 successor.

Chris

Chris the reason Pentax has not released a new APS-C flagship is because sony have not releases a new BSI sensor that both Fujifilm and Pentax cameras are waiting on. Sony are releasing BSI wafer this year that yields a 24mp aps-c sensor. Instead pentax appear to have brought forward a K1 upgrade using the available 42mp BSI sensor that is available now. I do wish they would communicate it though!

[monochrome]

Chris the reason Pentax has not released a new APS-C flagship is because sony have not releases a new BSI sensor that both Fujifilm and Pentax cameras are waiting on. Sony are releasing BSI wafer this year that yields a 24mp aps-c sensor. Instead pentax appear to have brought forward a K1 upgrade using the available 42mp BSI sensor that is available now. I do wish they would communicate it though!

Imagine - small camera company waiting on a major component supplier to ship its most advanced product before the small camera company builds and sells its signature camera.

[rangercarp]

All in all I am not that concerned with what others think or believe.

I just feel the need to blow some clouds of false expectations away, considering that there are quite a few others that must have believed this year we would see a K3 successor.

These two statements contradict each other...

And in another contradiction you continue citing Asahiman stating the K3x is not happening, while seemingly forgetting his follow on comment that it is under development and just not ready for release. If you cannot wait any longer, that is fine. But you repeatably state that it is not coming, when Asahiman says otherwise. Sooner or later we will find out how good his intel is, but in the mean time it is nonsensical to take one of his comments as Gospel while attempting to sweep under the rug his later clarification.

[Rondec]

I would just say that for Chris Mak, Pentax isn't the camera company he is looking for. Their specialty isn't really high frame rate cameras and I doubt that the K3 III or whatever it is called will have much over 8 frames per second. Again, if you need a 500mm f4 lens, then it is unlikely to be from Pentax -- they have a 560 f5.6 and the DFA 150-450. That's probably the best you can expect. Sigma may eventually release some of their new lenses in K mount, but the odds of the 500mm f4 coming are slim to none.

That doesn't mean that the K3 III isn't coming out, I sincerely believe it will. It just means that it is unlikely to be a D500 killer -- and won't be targeted as such. For most of us, that is OK, but I certainly wouldn't wait around if you are hoping for Pentax to release a D500-like camera.

[clickclick]

Time for two steps back. Look both ways. Hhhmmm. Let's forget everything we know other than the K3II has been discontinued. Hop on over to B&H and drill down to Pentax and sort by "best sellers". The K3II is by far and away the top with mostly K-1 and some K70 mixed in right behind it. You're to the bottom half of the list before you start seeing the KP in any quantity.

It's been a long time since I sat in my econ classes, but seems to me, barring a problem in the supply chain, the longer you make a particular widget, the cheaper it becomes to make, and in turn unit costs go down and profits up. There's a plateau to all this, and it levels out. Overt time, these are often referred to as the "cash cows" in a company. Good solid stable sources of income. You're not blowing out the margins, but you're keeping lights on and other stuff flowing. Good to have. Seems to me, barring a problem with sources, the K3II stands to be a cash cow pulling in some constant income. Seems like camera companies need that, badly.

Why would you just pull the plug on keeping this all humming along if you didn't have something pretty imminent?

[jatrax]

That doesn't mean that the K3 III isn't coming out, I sincerely believe it will. It just means that it is unlikely to be a D500 killer -- and won't be targeted as such. For most of us, that is OK, but I certainly wouldn't wait around if you are hoping for Pentax to release a D500-like camera.

Well said.
I find it impossible to believe that Ricoh will not replace the K-3II with a follow on model of similar capabilities. Regardless of the interest or success of FF, APS-C is still the bread and butter of all DSLR makers. However, when that will actually happen is open to speculation. Ricoh has been exceptionally effective at keeping things under wraps so it is difficult to say much of anything with any confidence.

---------- Post added 02-09-18 at 05:08 PM ----------

Why would you just pull the plug on keeping this all humming along if you didn't have something pretty imminent?

+1.
Oh wait, that actually makes sense. I'm sure you will get flamed over that. Imagine a post that has some logical, fundamental thought behind it. Scandalous.